RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Protection by preventive Ebola vaccines has been demonstrated in clinical trials, but a complete picture of real-world effectiveness is lacking. Our previous study modeling the impact of preventively vaccinating healthcare workers (HCW) alone or with a proportion of the general population (GP) estimated significant reductions in incidence and mortality. The model assumed 100% vaccine efficacy, which is unlikely in the real world. We enhanced this model to account for lower vaccine efficacy and to factor in reduced infectiousness and lower case fatality rate in vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections. METHODS: The previous model was enhanced to still permit a risk, although lower, for vaccinated individuals to become infected. The enhanced model, calibrated with data from epidemics in Sierra Leone (SL) and North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, helped evaluate the impact of preventive Ebola vaccination in different scenarios based on different vaccine efficacy rates (90% and 30% reductions in infection risk in the base and conservative scenarios, respectively; additionally, both scenarios with 50% reductions in infectiousness and mortality) and vaccination coverage among HCWs (30%, 90%) and GP (0%, 5%, and 10%). RESULTS: The base scenario estimated that, depending upon the proportions of vaccinated HCWs and GP, 33-85% of cases and 34-87% of deaths during the 2014 SL epidemic and 42-89% of cases and 41-89% of deaths during the 2018 North Kivu epidemic would be averted versus no vaccination. Corresponding estimates for the conservative scenario were: 23-74% of cases and 23-77% of deaths averted during the SL epidemic and 31-80% of both cases and deaths averted during the North Kivu epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: Preventive vaccination targeting HCW alone or with GP may significantly reduce the size and mortality of an EVD outbreak, even with modest efficacy and coverage. Vaccines may also confer additional benefits through reduced infectiousness and mortality in breakthrough cases.
Assuntos
Vacinas contra Ebola , Ebolavirus , Epidemias , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola , República Democrática do Congo/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/epidemiologia , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Serra Leoa/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Currently available injectable agents are inadequate to address the high drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) burden in China. Regimens including the oral agent bedaquiline have been shown to be efficacious and safe, leading to its incorporation into multiple national TB treatment programs. This analysis evaluated the impact of increased adoption of bedaquiline-containing regimens on the DR-TB burden in China. METHODS: A state-transition model was developed that permits movement and interaction between susceptible, latent, and active TB disease states, while distinguishing between drug-sensitive (DS) and DR-TB. Model inputs were obtained from the published literature or derived such that model metrics approximated those published by the WHO. Expected improvements in infrastructure were built into the model to forecast the epidemiology of DR-TB in China through 2040 in the absence of bedaquiline (baseline forecast). The impact of higher utilization of bedaquiline-containing regimens (85% peak share) was then assessed in two scenarios that differed with regard to treatment success rates of the regimens: 61% (reflecting findings of clinical trials) and 80% (reflecting data from observational studies), versus the 44% success rate associated with standard-of-care treatment. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the model predicted increases in annual incidence of DR-TB by 6-8% during each five-year period between 2020 and 2040, with an increase of 30% over the entire study duration. Adoption of bedaquiline-based regimens limits the incidence increases to only 1-3% in each five-year period and to 8% over the study duration in the 61% success rate scenario. Incidence declines by 1-6% during each five-year period and by 12% over the study duration in the 80% success rate scenario. Similar effects on DR-TB prevalence (4-5% increase in baseline, 0-7% decline in scenario 1, and 4-19% decline in scenario 2) and mortality (5-7% increase in baseline, 0-16% decline in scenario 1, and 6-40% decline in scenario 2) were seen following bedaquiline adoption. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporation of bedaquiline into DR-TB treatment regimens will significantly reduce the DR-TB burden in China, helping to counter the expected increase in burden in the absence of bedaquiline. The study will provide valuable information to public health policy planners.
Assuntos
Antituberculosos/uso terapêutico , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Diarilquinolinas/uso terapêutico , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/tratamento farmacológico , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Modelos Estatísticos , Prevalência , Resultado do Tratamento , Tuberculose Resistente a Múltiplos Medicamentos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Purpose: The study's purpose was to evaluate the correlation between overall survival (OS) and its potential surrogate endpoints: pathologic complete response (pCR) and event-free survival (EFS)/disease-free survival (DFS) in neoadjuvant and/or adjuvant HR+/HER2- breast cancer. Methods: Systematic search was performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library databases and other relevant sources to identify literature that have reported outcomes of interest in the target setting. The strength of correlation of EFS/DFS with OS, pCR with OS, and pCR with EFS/DFS was measured using Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) based on weighted regression analysis. For Surrogate Endpoint-True Endpoint pairs where correlation was found to be moderate, surrogate threshold effect (STE) was estimated using a mixed-effects model. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the scale and weights used and removing outlier data. Results: Moderate correlation was observed of relative measures [log(HR)] of EFS/DFS and OS (r = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.96, p < 0.0001). STE for HREFS/DFS was estimated to be 0.73. Association between EFS/DFS at 1, 2 and 3 years with OS at 4- and 5-year landmarks was moderate. Relative treatment effects of pCR and EFS/DFS were not strongly associated (r: 0.24; 95% CI: -0.63, 0.84, p = 0.6028). Correlation between pCR and OS was either not evaluated due to inadequate sample size (relative outcomes) or weak (absolute outcomes). Results obtained in the sensitivity analyses were similar to base scenario. Conclusion: EFS/DFS were moderately correlated with OS in this trial-level analysis. They may be considered as valid surrogates for OS in HR+/HER2- breast cancer.
RESUMO
Although chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T cell therapies are typically administered in the inpatient setting, outpatient administration is rapidly expanding. However, there is limited summarized evidence comparing outcomes between outpatient and inpatient administration. This systematic literature review aims to compare the safety, efficacy, quality of life (QoL), costs, and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) outcomes in patients with hematological cancer who are administered CAR-T therapy in an outpatient versus an inpatient setting. Publications (2016 or later) that reported the outcomes of interest in patients treated with a CAR-T therapy in both outpatient and inpatient settings, or only the outpatient setting, were reviewed. In total, 38 publications based on 21 studies were included. Safety findings suggested the comparable frequency of adverse events in the two settings. Eleven studies that reported data in both settings showed comparable response rates (80-82% in outpatient and 72-80% in inpatient). Improvements in the QoL were observed in both settings while costs associated with CAR-T therapy were lower in the outpatient setting. Although unplanned hospitalizations were higher in the outpatient cohort, overall HCRU was lower. Outpatient administration of CAR-T therapy appears to have comparable outcomes in safety, efficacy, and QoL to inpatient administration while reducing the economic burden.
RESUMO
Ebola epidemics constitute serious public health emergencies. Multiple vaccines are under development to prevent these epidemics and avoid the associated morbidity and mortality. Assessing the potential impact of these vaccines on morbidity and mortality of Ebola is essential for devising prevention strategies. A mean-field compartmental stochastic model was developed for this purpose and validated by simulating the 2014 Sierra Leone epidemic. We assessed the impacts of prophylactic vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) both alone and in combination with the vaccination of the general population (entire susceptible population other than HCW). The model simulated 8,706 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 478-21,942) cases and 3,575 (95%CI: 179-9,031) deaths in Sierra Leone, in line with WHO-reported statistics for the 2014 epidemic (8,704 cases and 3,587 deaths). Relative to this base case, the model then estimated that prophylactic vaccination of only 10% of HCW will avert 12% (95% CI: 6%-14%) of overall cases and deaths, while vaccination of 30% of HCW will avert 34% of overall cases (95% CI: 30%-64%) and deaths (95% CI: 30%-65%). Prophylactic vaccination of 1% and 5% of the general population in addition to vaccinating 30% of HCW was estimated to result in reduction in cases by 44% (95% CI: 39%-61%) and 72% (95% CI: 68%-84%) respectively, and deaths by 45% (95% CI: 40%-61%) and 74% (95% CI: 70%-85%) respectively. Prophylactic vaccination of even small proportions of HCW is estimated to significantly reduce incidence of Ebola and associated mortality. The effect is greatly enhanced by the additional vaccination even of small percentages of the general population. These findings could be used to inform the planning of prevention strategies.
Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Simulação por Computador , Ebolavirus , Pessoal de Saúde , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/epidemiologia , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/prevenção & controle , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/transmissão , Humanos , Incidência , Mortalidade , Serra Leoa/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Monoclonal antibodies targeting the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 (CTLA4) (e.g., ipilimumab [IPI]) and the programmed cell death-1 (PD1) receptor (e.g., nivolumab [NIVO]) represent significant breakthroughs in the treatment of advanced melanoma. A combination of the 2 agents has demonstrated efficacy and survival benefits over NIVO or IPI monotherapy in treating advanced melanoma. We compared melanoma-specific costs following treatment with NIVO + IPI, NIVO monotherapy, or IPI monotherapy from the UK and German perspectives to ascertain whether these clinical benefits resulted in a cost advantage. METHODS: Patient-level resource utilization data for the three treatment cohorts were obtained from the CheckMate 067 trial (NCT01844505). All melanoma-specific resources, including drugs (index, concomitant and subsequent melanoma medications), office visits, emergency room visits, hospitalizations, lab tests, procedures and surgeries, utilized over a 48-month evaluation period after start of index treatment were included. Unit costs specific to each geography were applied from external sources. Mean costs per surviving patients were calculated for each successive 30-day period from treatment start and aggregated over the evaluation period. RESULTS: The total per-patient costs incurred by advanced melanoma patients over the 48-month period following treatment initiation with NIVO + IPI were 9% lower than NIVO monotherapy (£226k vs £248k) and 3% lower compared to IPI monotherapy (£226k vs. £233k) in the UK. In Germany, the total costs incurred by NIVO + IPI cohort were 5% lower than NIVO monotherapy (258k vs 271k) and 4% lower compared to IPI monotherapy (258k vs. 268k). Drug costs accounted for > 85% of total costs. Non-drug costs were slightly higher for NIVO + IPI and IPI monotherapy because of higher hospitalization rates. Costs incurred on subsequent drugs post progression were about 45% and 65% lower in NIVO + IPI cohort compared with NIVO and IPI monotherapy cohorts respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The total costs incurred by a patient over a 48-month period following treatment initiation with NIVO + IPI are lower when compared with patients initiating monotherapies; further, the cost advantage is seen to be increasing over time. The clinical benefits offered by the regimen are thus supplemented by a cost advantage, as patients receiving either monotherapy treatment experience faster progression and, consequently, higher subsequent treatment costs. (Note: The cost results reported here are specific to the UK, and Germany, and may not be generalizable to other geographies).