Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes. METHODS: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05. FINDINGS: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Patients' experiences undergoing breast evaluation in Rwanda's Women's Cancer Early Detection Program.

PURPOSE: There is urgent need for interventions to facilitate earlier diagnosis of breast cancer in low- and middle-income countries where mammography screening is not widely available. Understanding patients' experiences with early detection efforts, whether they are ultimately diagnosed with cancer or benign disease, is critical to optimize interventions and maximize community engagement. We sought to understand the experiences of patients undergoing breast evaluation in Rwanda's Women's Cancer Early Detection Program (WCEDP). METHODS: We conducted in-person semi-structured interviews with 30 patients in two districts of Rwanda participating in the WCEDP. Patients represented a range of ages and both benign and malignant diagnoses. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, translated, and thematically analyzed. RESULTS: Participants identified facilitators and barriers of timely care along the breast evaluation pathway. Community awareness initiatives were facilitators to care-seeking, while persistent myths and stigma about cancer were barriers. Participants valued clear clinician-patient communication and emotional support from clinicians and peers. Poverty was a major barrier for participants who described difficulty paying for transport, insurance premiums, and other direct and indirect costs of hospital referrals in particular. COVID-19 lockdowns caused delays for referred patients. Although false-positive clinical breast exams conferred financial and emotional burdens, participants nonetheless voiced appreciation for their experience and felt empowered to monitor their own breast health and share knowledge with others. CONCLUSION: Rwandan women experienced both benefits and burdens as they underwent breast evaluation. Enthusiasm for participation was not reduced by the experience of a false-positive result. Reducing financial, logistical and emotional burdens of the breast diagnostic pathway through patient navigation, peer support and decentralization of diagnostic services could improve patients' experience.

Economic Evaluations of Breast Cancer Care in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the cost of delivering breast cancer (BC) care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is critical to guide effective care delivery strategies. This scoping review summarizes the scope of literature on the costs of BC care in LMICs and characterizes the methodological approaches of these economic evaluations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed in five databases and gray literature up to March 2020. Studies were screened to identify original articles that included a cost outcome for BC diagnosis or treatment in an LMIC. Two independent reviewers assessed articles for eligibility. Data related to study characteristics and methodology were extracted. Study quality was assessed using the Drummond et al. checklist. RESULTS: Ninety-one articles across 38 countries were included. The majority (73%) of studies were published between 2013 and 2020. Low-income countries (2%) and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (9%) were grossly underrepresented. The majority of studies (60%) used a health care system perspective. Time horizon was not reported in 30 studies (33%). Of the 33 studies that estimated the cost of multiple steps in the BC care pathway, the majority (73%) were of high quality, but studies varied in their inclusion of nonmedical direct and indirect costs. CONCLUSION: There has been substantial growth in the number of BC economic evaluations in LMICs in the past decade, but there remain limited data from low-income countries, especially those in Sub-Saharan Africa. BC economic evaluations should be prioritized in these countries. Use of existing frameworks for economic evaluations may help achieve comparable, transparent costing analyses. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: There has been substantial growth in the number of breast cancer economic evaluations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in the past decade, but there remain limited data from low-income countries. Breast cancer economic evaluations should be prioritized in low-income countries and in Sub-Saharan Africa. Researchers should strive to use and report a costing perspective and time horizon that captures all costs relevant to the study objective, including those such as direct nonmedical and indirect costs. Use of existing frameworks for economic evaluations in LMICs may help achieve comparable, transparent costing analyses in order to guide breast cancer control strategies.

Health effects associated with chewing tobacco: a Burden of Proof study.

Chewing tobacco use poses serious health risks; yet it has not received as much attention as other tobacco-related products. This study synthesizes existing evidence regarding the health impacts of chewing tobacco while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of chewing tobacco and seven health outcomes, drawing on 103 studies published from 1970 to 2023. We use a Burden of Proof meta-analysis to generate conservative risk estimates and find weak-to-moderate evidence that tobacco chewers have an increased risk of stroke, lip and oral cavity cancer, esophageal cancer, nasopharynx cancer, other pharynx cancer, and laryngeal cancer. We additionally find insufficient evidence of an association between chewing tobacco and ischemic heart disease. Our findings highlight a need for policy makers, researchers, and communities at risk to devote greater attention to chewing tobacco by both advancing tobacco control efforts and investing in strengthening the existing evidence base.

Comparing absolute and relative distance and time travel measures of geographic access to healthcare facilities in rural Haiti.

INTRODUCTION: While travel distance and time are important proxies of physical access to health facilities, obtaining valid measures with an appropriate modelling method remains challenging in many settings. We compared five measures of geographic accessibility in Haiti, producing recommendations that consider available analytic resources and geospatial goals. METHODS: Eight public hospitals within the ministry of public health and population were included. We estimated distance and time between hospitals and geographic centroids of Haiti's section communes and population-level accessibility. Geographic feature data were obtained from public administrative databases, academic research databases and government satellites. We used validated geographic information system methods to produce five geographic access measures: (1) Euclidean distance (ED), (2) network distance (ND), (3) network travel time (NTT), (4) AccessMod 5 (AM5) distance (AM5D) and (5) AM5 travel time (AM5TT). Relative ranking of section communes across the measures was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients, while mean differences were assessed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and pairwise t-tests. RESULTS: All five geographic access measures were highly correlated (range: 0.78-0.99). Of the distance measures, ED values were consistently the shortest, followed by AM5D values, while ND values were the longest. ND values were as high as 2.3 times ED values. NTT models generally produced longer travel time estimates compared with AM5TT models. ED consistently overestimated population coverage within a given threshold compared with ND and AM5D. For example, population-level accessibility within 15 km of the nearest studied hospital in the Center department was estimated at 68% for ED, 50% for AM5D and 34% for ND. CONCLUSION: While the access measures were highly correlated, there were significant differences in the absolute measures. Consideration of the benefits and limitations of each geospatial measure together with the intended purpose of the estimates, such as relative proximity of patients or service coverage, are key to guiding appropriate use.

Health system costs of a breast cancer early diagnosis programme in a rural district of Rwanda: a retrospective, cross-sectional economic analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to quantify the health system cost of the first 2 years of a Breast Cancer Early Detection (BCED) programme in a rural district in Rwanda. We also aimed to estimate the cost of implementing the programme in other districts with different referral pathways and identify opportunities for enhanced cost efficiency. DESIGN: Retrospective, cross-sectional analysis using time-driven activity-based costing, based on timed patient clinical encounters, retrospective patient data and unit costs of resources abstracted from administrative and finance records. SETTING: The BCED programme focused on timely evaluation of individuals with breast symptoms. The study evaluated the health system cost of the BCED programme at seven health centres (HCs) in Burera district and Butaro Cancer Centre of Excellence (BCCOE) at Butaro District Hospital. OUTCOME MEASURES: Health system costs per patient visit and cost per cancer diagnosed were quantified. Total start-up and recurring operational costs were also estimated, as well as health system costs of different scale-up adaptations in other districts. RESULTS: One-time start-up costswere US$36 917, recurring operational costswere US$67 711 and clinical costswere US$14 824 over 2 years. Clinical breast examinations (CBE) at HCs cost US$3.27/visit. At BCCOE, CBE-only visits cost US$13.47/visit, CBE/ultrasound US$14.79/visit and CBE/ultrasound/biopsy/pathology US$147.81/visit. Overall, clinical cost per breast cancer diagnosed was US$1482. Clinicalcost drivers were personnel at HCs (55%) and biopsy/pathology supplies at BCCOE (46%). In other districts, patients experience a longer breast evaluation pathway, adding about US$14.00/patient; this could be decreased if ultrasound services were decentralised. CONCLUSION: Clinical costs associated with BCED services at HCs were modest, similar to other general outpatient services. The BCED programme's start-up and operational costs were high but could be reduced by using local trainers and virtual mentorship. In other districts, decentralising ultrasound and/or biopsies to district hospitals could reduce costs.

Cost of breast cancer care in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review protocol.

OBJECTIVE: This review will describe the scope of the literature on the cost of breast cancer care in low- and middle-income countries and summate the methodological characteristics and approaches of these economic evaluations. INTRODUCTION: In the past decade, there has been global momentum to improve capacity for breast cancer care in low- and middle-income countries, which have higher rates of breast cancer mortality compared to high-income countries. Understanding the cost of delivering breast cancer care in low- and middle-income countries is critical to guide effective cancer care delivery strategies and policy. INCLUSION CRITERIA: Studies that estimate the cost of breast cancer diagnosis and treatment in low- and middle-income countries will be included. Studies not available in English will be excluded. METHODS: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Scoping Review guidelines will be utilized. The search strategy has been developed in consultation with a medical librarian and will be carried out on five electronic databases from their inception (MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, WHO Global Index Medicus) as well as in gray literature sources. Two independent reviewers will review all abstracts and titles in the primary screen and full-text articles in the secondary screen. A third reviewer will adjudicate conflicts. One reviewer will perform data extraction. Study demographics, design, and methodological characteristics (such as costing perspective, time horizon, and included cost categories) will be summarized in narrative and tabular formats. The methodological quality of studies will be evaluated using a validated economic evaluation tool.

High Poverty and Hardship Financing Among Patients with Noncommunicable Diseases in Rural Haiti.

Background: Poverty is a major barrier to healthcare access in low-income countries. The degree of equitable access for noncommunicable disease (NCD) patients is not known in rural Haiti. Objectives: We evaluated the poverty distribution among patients receiving care in an NCD clinic in rural Haiti compared with the community and assessed associations of poverty with sex and distance from the health facility. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study of patients with NCDs attending a public-sector health center in rural Haiti 2013-2016, and compared poverty among patients with poverty among a weighted community sample from the Haiti 2012 Demographic and Health Survey. We adapted the multidimensional poverty index: people deprived ≥44% of indicators are among the poorest billion people worldwide. We assessed hardship financing: borrowing money or selling belongings to pay for healthcare. We examined the association between facility distance and poverty adjusted for age and sex using linear regression. Results: Of 379 adults, 72% were women and the mean age was 52.5 years. 17.7% had hypertension, 19.3% had diabetes, 3.1% had heart failure, and 33.8% had multiple conditions. Among patients with available data, 197/296 (66.6%) experienced hardship financing. The proportions of people who are among the poorest billion people for women and men were similar (23.3% vs. 20.3%, p > 0.05). Fewer of the clinic patients were among the poorest billion people compared with the community (22.4% vs. 63.1%, p < 0.001). Patients who were most poor were more likely to live closer to the clinic (p = 0.002). Conclusion: Among patients with NCD conditions in rural Haiti, poverty and hardship financing are highly prevalent. However, clinic patients were less poor compared with the community population. These data suggest barriers to care access particularly affect the poorest. Socioeconomic data must be collected at health facilities and during community-level surveillance studies to monitor equitable healthcare access. Highlights: Poverty and hardship financing are highly prevalent among NCD patients in rural Haiti.Patients attending clinic are less poor than expected from the community.People travelling farther to clinic are less poor.Socioeconomic data should be collected to monitor healthcare access equity.