Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

How do plant ecologists use matrix population models?

Matrix projection models are among the most widely used tools in plant ecology. However, the way in which plant ecologists use and interpret these models differs from the way in which they are presented in the broader academic literature. In contrast to calls from earlier reviews, most studies of plant populations are based on < 5 matrices and present simple metrics such as deterministic population growth rates. However, plant ecologists also cautioned against literal interpretation of model predictions. Although academic studies have emphasized testing quantitative model predictions, such forecasts are not the way in which plant ecologists find matrix models to be most useful. Improving forecasting ability would necessitate increased model complexity and longer studies. Therefore, in addition to longer term studies with better links to environmental drivers, priorities for research include critically evaluating relative/comparative uses of matrix models and asking how we can use many short-term studies to understand long-term population dynamics.

Spatial differentiation for flower color in the desert annual Linanthus parryae: was Wright right?

Understanding the evolutionary mechanisms that contribute to the local genetic differentiation of populations is a major goal of evolutionary biology, and debate continues regarding the relative importance of natural selection and random genetic drift to population differentiation. The desert plant Linanthus parryae has played a prominent role in these debates, with nearly six decades of empirical and theoretical work into the causes of spatial differentiation for flower color. Plants produce either blue or white flowers, and local populations often differ greatly in the frequencies of the two color morphs. Sewall Wright first applied his model of "isolation by distance" to investigate spatial patterns of flower color in Linanthus. He concluded that the distribution of flower color morphs was due to random genetic drift, and that Linanthus provided an example of his shifting balance theory of evolution. Our results from comprehensive field studies do not support this view. We studied an area in which flower color changed abruptly from all-blue to all-white across a shallow ravine. Allozyme markers sampled across these regions showed no evidence of spatial differentiation, reciprocal transplant experiments revealed natural selection favoring the resident morph, and soils and the dominant members of the plant community differed between regions. These results support the hypothesis that local differences in flower color are due to natural selection, not due to genetic drift.

Determinants of gender in Jack-in-the-pulpit: the influence of plant size and reproductive history.

Jack-in-the-pulpit, Arisaema triphyllum, is a perennial forest herb with the ability to change sex. At two sites in upstate New York, plant sex was correlated with plant size: males were smaller than females, nonflowering plants were smaller than males. Changes in plant size were accompanied by changes in sex. Sex change occurred quite frequently; at one site, 8% of nonflowering plants, 64% of males, and 63% of females changed their sex from one season to the next. The probability that a plant will change size and sex between years was altered by artificial defoliation and by the production of seeds, but was not affected by supplementing plants with nutrient fertilizer. Discriminant analysis indicated that several historical factors significantly affected plant sex: a model including the variables of current plant size, previous year's plant size, and previous year's sex was significantly better at predicting the current sex of individuals than was a model containing only current plant size. However, even the consideration of these three variables left up to a third of the plants misclassified with respect to gender. This analysis explains in part why plants at the two sites changed sex at different sizes, but it is likely that other factors-e.g. genetic differences-are involved.

ENVIRONMENTAL SENSITIVITY OF SEXUAL AND APOMICTIC ANTENNARIA: DO APOMICTS HAVE GENERAL-PURPOSE GENOTYPES?

The fact that apomictic taxa typically occupy a wider range of environments than their sexual relatives has generated the hypothesis that apomicts are more likely to possess "general-purpose genotypes," i.e., genotypes whose performance is relatively insensitive to changes in environmental conditions. This hypothesis was tested by cloning sexual and apomictic females of Antennaria parvifolia (Asteraceae) and growing each genotype in six growth-chamber environments varying in temperature and moisture levels. A joint regression analysis revealed that the survival of apomictic genotypes was significantly less sensitive to environmental conditions than that of sexual genotypes but demonstrated no differences with regard to flowering or biomass. However, the coefficient of variation in biomass across the six environments was significantly lower for apomicts than for sexuals, and the geometric mean of survival over the six environments was significantly higher for apomicts. Apomicts significantly exceeded sexuals in mean survival, mean flower-head production, and mean biomass. These results support the hypothesis that apomictic genotypes are more "general-purpose" than sexuals, and increase the difficulty of explaining the persistence of sexual reproduction in A. parvifolia.