Prevalence and correlates of coronary calcification in black and white young adults: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

Whereas cardiovascular risk factor levels are substantially different in black and white Americans, the relative rates of cardiovascular disease in the 2 groups are not always consistent with these differences. To compare the prevalence of coronary calcification, an indicator of coronary atherosclerosis, in young adult blacks and whites, we performed electron-beam computed tomography of the heart in 443 men and women aged 28 to 40 years recruited from a population-based cohort. The presence of calcium, defined as at least 1 focus of at least 2.05 mm(2) in area and >130 Hounsfield units in density within the coronary arteries, was identified in 16.1% of black men, 11.8% of black women, 17.1% of white men, and 4.6% of white women (P=0.04 for comparison across groups). Coronary calcium was associated with age and male sex, and after adjustment for age, race, and sex, coronary calcium was positively associated with body mass index, weight, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and fasting insulin and negatively associated with education (all P<0.05). Independent risk factors included male sex, body mass index, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol. Race was not significantly associated with coronary calcium in men or women, before or after adjustment for risk factors. Coronary calcification is associated with increased levels of cardiovascular risk factors in young adults, and its prevalence is not significantly different in blacks and whites.

Traditional risk factors and subclinical disease measures as predictors of first myocardial infarction in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for myocardial infarction (MI) have not been well characterized in older adults, and in estimating risk, we sought to assess the individual and joint contributions made by both traditional risk factors and measures of subclinical disease. METHODS: In the Cardiovascular Health Study, we recruited 5888 adults aged 65 years and older from 4 US centers. At baseline in 1989-1990, participants underwent an extensive examination that included traditional risk factors such as blood pressure and fasting glucose level and measures of subclinical disease as assessed by electrocardiography, carotid ultrasonography, echocardiography, pulmonary function, and ankle-arm index. Participants were followed up with semiannual contacts, and all cardiovascular events were classified by the Morbidity and Mortality Committee. The main analytic technique was the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: At baseline, 1967 men and 2979 women had no history of an MI. After follow-up for an average of 4.8 years, there were 302 coronary events, which included 263 patients with MI and 39 with definite fatal coronary disease. The incidence was higher in men (20.7 per 1000 person-years) than women (7.9 per 1000 person-years). In all subjects, the incidence was strongly associated with age, increasing from 7.8 per 1000 person-years in subjects aged 65 to 69 years to 25.6 per 1000 person-years in subjects aged 85 years and older. Glucose level and systolic blood pressure were associated with the incidence of MI, but smoking and lipid measures were not. After adjustment for age and sex, the significant subclinical disease predictors of MI were borderline or abnormal ejection fraction by echocardiography, high levels of intimal-medial thickness of the internal carotid artery, and a low ankle-arm index. Forced vital capacity and electrocardiographic left ventricular mass did not enter the stepwise model. Excluding subjects with clinical cardiovascular diseases such as prior angina or congestive heart failure at baseline had little effect on these results. Risk factors were generally similar in men and women. CONCLUSIONS: After follow-up of 4.8 years, systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose level, and selected subclinical disease measures were important predictors of the incidence of MI in older adults. Uncontrolled high blood pressure may explain about one quarter of the coronary events in this population.

Comparison of quantitative sensory-threshold measures for their association with foot ulceration in diabetic patients.

We compared the accuracy of cutaneous pressure perception-threshold measurements with that of other sensory-threshold measurements for detecting diabetic foot ulcer patients. Three hundred fourteen non-insulin-dependent diabetic patients were studied, of whom 91 had either a current foot ulcer or a history of foot ulceration. Foot ulcer patients had much higher pressure perception thresholds at the hallux than those without foot ulcers (mean +/- SE 4.63 +/- 0.05 vs. 3.54 +/- 0.04 U, P less than 0.001). The magnitude of association was higher than that for vibration thresholds and markedly greater than those for cool and warm thresholds. Pressure thresholds were highly accurate for identifying foot ulcer patients. At a threshold level of 4.21 U, the sensitivity was 0.84, with a specificity of 0.96. At similar sensitivities for vibration and thermal thresholds, specificities were lower. Foot ulceration and cutaneous pressure perception threshold are strongly associated. Pressure-threshold measurements are extremely accurate and perform at least as well as other quantitative sensory tests in identifying foot ulcer patients. Assessment of the foot pressure threshold may have promise as a simple and inexpensive method for detecting diabetic patients at risk for foot ulcers.

Lower-extremity amputation in people with diabetes. Epidemiology and prevention.

The age-adjusted rate of lower-extremity amputation (LEA) in the diabetic population is approximately 15 times that of the nondiabetic population. Over 50,000 LEAs were performed on individuals with diabetes in the United States in 1985. Among individuals with diabetes, peripheral neuropathy and peripheral vascular disease (PVD) are major predisposing factors for LEA. Lack of adequate foot care and infection are additional risk factors. Several large clinical centers have experienced a 44-85% reduction in the rate of amputations among individuals with diabetes after the implementation of improved foot-care programs. Programs to reduce amputations among people with diabetes in primary-care settings should identify those at high risk; clinically evaluate individuals to determine specific risk status; ensure appropriate preventive therapy, treatment for foot problems, and follow-up; provide patient education; and, when necessary, refer patients to specialists, including health-care professionals for diagnostic and therapeutic interventions and shoe fitters for proper footwear. Programs should monitor and evaluate their activities and outcomes. Many issues related to the etiology and prevention of LEAs require further research.

Orthostatic hypotension in older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study. CHS Collaborative Research Group.

The purpose of the present study was to assess the prevalence of orthostatic hypotension and its associations with demographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors and symptomatology, prevalent cardiovascular disease, and selected clinical measurements in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a multicenter, observational, longitudinal study enrolling 5,201 men and women aged 65 years and older at initial examination. Blood pressure measurements were obtained with the subjects in a supine position and after they had been standing for 3 minutes. The prevalence of asymptomatic orthostatic hypotension, defined as 20 mm Hg or greater decrease in systolic or 10 mm Hg or greater decrease in diastolic blood pressure, was 16.2%. This prevalence increased to 18.2% when the definition also included those in whom the procedure was aborted due to dizziness upon standing. The prevalence was higher at successive ages. Orthostatic hypotension was associated significantly with difficulty walking (odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.02, 1.46), frequent falls (odds ratio, 1.52; confidence interval, 1.04, 2.22), and histories of myocardial infarction (odds ratio, 1.24; confidence interval, 1.02, 1.50) and transient ischemic attacks (odds ratio, 1.68; confidence interval, 1.12, 2.51). History of stroke, angina pectoris, and diabetes mellitus were not associated significantly with orthostatic hypotension. In addition, orthostatic hypotension was associated with isolated systolic hypertension (odds ratio, 1.35; confidence interval, 1.09, 1.68), major electrocardiographic abnormalities (odds ratio, 1.21; confidence interval, 1.03, 1.42), and the presence of carotid artery stenosis based on ultrasonography (odds ratio, 1.67; confidence interval, 1.23, 2.26). Orthostatic hypotension was negatively associated with weight. We conclude that orthostatic hypotension is common in the elderly and increases with advancing age. It is associated with cardiovascular disease, particularly those manifestations measured objectively, such as carotid stenosis. It is associated also with general neurological symptoms, but this link may not be causal. Differences in prevalence of and associations with orthostatic hypotension in the present study compared with others are largely attributed to differences in population characteristics and methodology.

Correlates of blood pressure in community-dwelling older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study. Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) Collaborative Research Group.

Although elevated blood pressure is an important predictor of cardiovascular disease and stroke in the elderly, little information exists on the distribution and risk factor correlates of blood pressure in this group. As part of the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based cohort study of 5201 men and women aged 65 to 101 years, we investigated correlates of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Multiple regression analyses were conducted for all participants and a subgroup of 2482 without coronary heart disease and not on antihypertensive therapy (the "healthier" subgroup). In the total group, independent predictors of diastolic blood pressure included heart rate, aortic root dimension, creatinine, hematocrit, alcohol use, and black race (positive associations) and internal carotid artery wall thickness, mitral early/late peak flow velocity, white blood cell count, cigarette smoking, and age (negative associations). Positive predictors of systolic blood pressure included mitral late peak flow velocity, left ventricular mass, common carotid artery wall thickness, serum albumin, factor VII, diabetes, alcohol use, and age; negative predictors were coronary heart disease, uric acid, height, and smoking. In the healthier subgroup, positive predictors of diastolic blood pressure included heart rate, hematocrit, serum albumin, creatinine, and body weight, whereas mitral early/late peak flow velocity, serum potassium, smoking, and age inversely related to diastolic pressure. For the same group, common carotid artery wall thickness, left ventricular mass, serum albumin, factor VII, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and age were directly related to systolic blood pressure, whereas serum potassium was inversely related. Both systolic and diastolic pressures varied considerably by geographic site.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Associations of body fat and its distribution with dietary intake, physical activity, alcohol, and smoking in blacks and whites.

Cross-sectional associations between body fat and its distribution and environmental factors influencing energy balance were examined in 5115 young adults. Protein was directly associated with body mass index (BMI) in all race and sex groups (P less than 0.01) after age, education, cigarette-smoking status, alcohol intake, and physical activity were adjusted for. Carbohydrate intake was inversely associated with BMI in males (P = 0.02). Total physical activity was inversely associated with BMI in white women and with skinfold-thickness measures (P less than 0.01) in all groups. Waist-to-hip-circumference ratio (WHCR) was positively associated with total kilojoules (kilocalories) in women, inversely associated with percent of kilojoules (kilocalories) from carbohydrates in whites, grams of crude fiber/4184 kJ (1000 kcal) (except in black men), and physical activity (except in white women). WHCR was directly associated with cigarette smoking except in black men, and with total alcohol intake in men. Beer was consistently associated with WHCR in all race and sex groups.

Identification and management of heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia: summary and recommendations from an NHLBI workshop.

Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (hFH) is one of the most common monogenic disorders with serious health consequences, affecting approximately 1 in 500 persons in the United States. Persons with hFH generally manifest elevations of low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol throughout their lives and have a markedly increased risk of death from coronary artery disease. The hypercholesterolemia of hFH is responsive to medication and diet, and, if detected early, aggressive LDL cholesterol control may prevent or substantially delay cardiovascular disease. However, evidence suggests that many persons with hFH are undetected and inadequately treated. On July 20-21, 1992, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute sponsored a workshop to assess the current understanding of the diagnosis and management of hFH, to emphasize recommendations for identification and management that are known to be effective, and to identify opportunities and needs for intervention and research.

Major electrocardiographic abnormalities in persons aged 65 years and older (the Cardiovascular Health Study). Cardiovascular Health Study Collaborative Research Group.

Electrocardiographic abnormalities are often found in older patients, but their prevalence in free-living elderly populations is not well-defined. In addition, the clinical significance of many of these abnormalities is uncertain. The prevalence of major electrocardiographic abnormalities was determined in 5,150 adults aged greater than or equal to 65 years from the Cardiovascular Health Study--a study of risk factors for stroke and coronary heart disease in the elderly. Ventricular conduction defects, major Q/QS waves, left ventricular hypertrophy, isolated major ST-T-wave abnormalities, atrial fibrillation and first-degree atrioventricular block were collectively categorized as major electrocardiographic abnormalities. Prevalence of any major electrocardiographic abnormality was 29% in the entire cohort, 19% among 2,413 participants who reported no history of coronary artery disease or systemic hypertension, and 37% among 2,737 participants with a history of coronary artery disease or hypertension. Prevalence of major electrocardiographic abnormalities was higher in men than in women regardless of history, and tended to increase with age. Major Q/QS waves were found in 5.2%, and more than half were in those who did not report a previous myocardial infarction. Major electrocardiographic abnormalities are common in elderly men and women irrespective of the history of heart disease.

Prevalence and identification of abnormal lipoprotein levels in a biracial population aged 23 to 35 years (the CARDIA Study). The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study.

This study examines the prevalence of abnormal low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels in young adults to determine the ability of National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) guidelines to identify persons with elevated LDL cholesterol, to compare other algorithms with those of the ATP, and to determine the contributions of race, gender, and other coronary artery disease risk factors to identifying patients with elevated LDL and low HDL cholesterol. The cohort was population-based, aged 23 to 35 years, and included relatively equal numbers of blacks and whites, and men and women. The prevalence of LDL cholesterol > or = 160 mg/dl (> 4.1 mmol/L) was 5% in black women, 4% in white women, 10% in black men, and 9% in white men. ATP identified most participants with elevated LDL cholesterol (range: 58.8% of white men to 70.7% of black women). Lipoprotein panels would have been required in 6% to 7% of women and to 15% to 18% of men. Algorithms that used nonlipid risk factors required more lipoprotein panels and identified fewer additional participants at risk. The prevalence of HDL cholesterol < 35 mg/dl (0.9 mmol/L) was 3% in women, 7% in black men, and 13% in white men. Algorithms that used nonlipid risk factors before measuring HDL cholesterol would require HDL cholesterol measurements in 35% of whites and 56% of blacks, but reduced sensitivity for identifying low HDL cholesterol (range: 58% in white men to 93% in black women). In young adults, algorithms based on nonlipid risk factors and family history have lower sensitivity, and increase rather than decrease the number of fasting lipoprotein panels required when compared with ATP levels.

Left ventricular diastolic filling in the elderly: the cardiovascular health study.

Changes in left ventricular (LV) diastolic function (e.g., as measured by transmitral flow velocity) are known to occur with aging. In addition, impaired LV diastolic function plays an important role in such cardiovascular disorders common in the elderly as hypertension, ischemic heart disease, and congestive heart failure (CHF). Participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a multicenter study of community-dwelling men (n=2,239) and women (n=2,962) > or = 65 years of age, underwent an extensive baseline evaluation, including echocardiography. Early diastolic LV Doppler (transmitral) peak filling velocity decreased, and peak late diastolic (atrial) velocity increased with age in multivariate analyses (all p <0.001). Early and late diastolic peak filling velocities were both significantly higher in women than in men, even after adjustment for body surface area (or height and weight). In multivariate models in the entire cohort and a healthy subgroup (n=703), gender, age, heart rate, and blood pressure (BP) were most strongly related to early and late diastolic transmitral peak velocities. Early and late diastolic peak velocities both increased with increases in systolic BP and decreased with increases in diastolic BP (p <0.001). Doppler transmitral velocities were compared among health status subgroups. In multiple regression models adjusted for other covariates, and in analysis of variance models examining differences across subgroups adjusted only for age, the subgroup with CHF had the highest early diastolic peak velocities. All clinical disease subgroups had higher late diastolic peak velocities than the healthy subgroup, with the subgroups with either CHF or hypertension having the highest age-adjusted means. The subgroup with hypertension had the lowest ratio of early-to-late diastolic peak velocity, and men with CHF had the highest ratio. These findings are consistent with previous reports that hypertensive subjects exhibit an abnormal relaxation pattern, whereas patients with CHF develop a pattern suggestive of an increased early diastolic left atrial-LV pressure gradient.

Physical activity in young black and white women. The CARDIA Study.

Total physical activity scores, based on level of participation in 13 types of activities for 2658 black and white women aged 18 to 30 years were examined in relation to demographic, health behavior, psychosocial, and obesity data to compare levels of physical activity and determine reasons for disparities between blacks and whites. Black women had lower scores than white women--geometric mean of 178 (95% confidence interval (CI): 167, 189) versus 318 (95% CI: 305, 332). After controlling for age and education, physical activity was associated with physical activity level before high school, life events score, John Henryism, and competitiveness in both groups. In white women only, it was associated with alcohol intake and need to excel, and negatively associated with number of children, number of cigarettes smoked, and fatness. Race remained a predictor of physical activity after controlling for each variable. Relationships between physical activity and age, education, cigarette smoking, and life events differed significantly by race. Black women had lower physical activity levels than white women, which may contribute to higher rates of obesity and coronary heart disease. Racial differences in physical activity remain largely unexplained by the factors examined.

Surveillance and ascertainment of cardiovascular events. The Cardiovascular Health Study.

While previous prospective multicenter studies have conducted cardiovascular disease surveillance, few have detailed the techniques relating to the ascertainment of and data collection for events. The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) is a population-based study of coronary heart disease and stroke in older adults. This article summarizes the CHS events protocol and describes the methods of surveillance and ascertainment of hospitalized and nonhospitalized events, the use of medical records and other support documents, organizational issues at the field center level, and the classification of events through an adjudication process. We present data on incidence and mortality, the classification of adjudicated events, and the agreement between classification by the Events Subcommittee and the medical records diagnostic codes. The CHS techniques are a successful model for complete ascertainment, investigation, and documentation of events in an older cohort.

Seven-year trends in plasma low-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol in young adults: the CARDIA Study.

To identify determinants of recent secular trends in lipids and characterize their influence on age-related increases in LDL-cholesterol, we examined a cohort of black and white men and women aged 18-30 in 1985-1986. Secular trends were determined by comparing participants aged 25-30 at baseline with those aged 25-30 at year 7 (2788 and 1395 participants, respectively). LDL-cholesterol was lower among those 25-30 at year 7 (5.9 to 10.2 mg/dL, depending on race-sex group; P < 0.001); weight was higher (8.3 to 12.5 lb; P < 0.001); Keys score was lower (-4.2 to -7.3 units; P < 0.001); and use of oral contraceptives was greater (white women only, P < 0.01). Among 4086 participants followed for 7 years, LDL-cholesterol changed little or decreased, despite substantial weight increases in all groups (11.6 to 19.0 lb; P < 0.001). Keys scores decreased by 6.1 to 8.0 units, and use of oral contraceptives decreased (P < 0.001). Declining secular trends in LDL-cholesterol occurred despite upward trends in weight; the decline was associated with lower dietary fat and cholesterol and offset expected age-related increases in LDL-cholesterol.

Frequency of recording of diabetes on U.S. death certificates: analysis of the 1986 National Mortality Followback Survey.

We used data from the 1986 National Mortality Followback Survey to estimate the frequency of recording of diabetes on death certificates and to determine factors associated with recording of diabetes among decedents aged 25 years and older who died in the U.S. in 1986. Among 2766 decedents for whom a history of diabetes was provided by a personal informant, diabetes was recorded on an estimated 38.2% of death certificates and was listed as the underlying cause of death on an estimated 9.6%. The frequency of recording of diabetes was strongly related to age and duration of diabetes--among those aged 25-44 years who had had diabetes for 15 or more years, the frequency of recording was 71.9%. When other listed causes of death included conditions that may have been related to diabetes, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes was recorded between 45 and 70% of the time, depending on the other causes. Diabetes is usually not recorded on death certificates, and the likelihood of recording is related to decedent characteristics, particularly age, duration of diabetes, and co-morbidity.

Relationship between hemoglobin and cardiovascular risk factors in young adults.

To understand mechanisms of association between hemoglobin and cardiovascular disease (CVD), the relationships between hemoglobin and CVD risk factors were examined in 5115 black and white men and women who participated in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study. Hemoglobin was higher in men than women, whites than blacks, and smokers than non-smokers (p < 0.001). After adjusting for age, body mass index, current smoking status, and clinical center, hemoglobin correlated with diastolic blood pressure (0.11 < or = r < or = 0.22, p < 0.001) and plasma total cholesterol (0.08 < or = r < or = 0.11, p < 0.01) in all four race-sex groups and with systolic blood pressure in all but black women (0.07 < or = r < or = 0.13, p < 0.05). Among other factors possibly related to CVD risk, only serum albumin and white blood cell count showed significant correlations with hemoglobin in all groups (0.19 < or = r < or = 0.27, 0.07 < or = r < or = 0.18, respectively). These findings suggest that an association of hemoglobin with CVD risk factors may explain the association of hemoglobin with CVD.

Predicting future years of healthy life for older adults.

Cost-effectiveness studies often need to compare the cost of a program to the lifetime benefits of the program, but estimates of lifetime benefits are not routinely available, especially for older adults. We used data from two large longitudinal studies of older adults (ages 65-100) to estimate transition probabilities from one health state to another, and used those probabilities to estimate the mean additional years of healthy life that an older adult of specified age, sex, and health status would experience. We found, for example, that 65-year-old women in excellent health can expect 16.8 years of healthy life in the future, compared to only 8.5 years for women in poor health. We also provide estimates of discounted years of healthy life and future life expectancy. These estimates may be used to extend the effective length of the study period in cost-effectiveness studies, to examine the impact of chronic diseases or risk factors on years of healthy life, or to investigate the relationship of years of life to years of healthy life. Several applications are described.

Validity of self-reported fat distribution in young adults: the CARDIA Study. Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults.

To determine the validity of self-reported information on body fat distribution, relationships between reported location of weight gain and measured waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and fasting insulin were analyzed in 5115 black and white men and women aged 18-30 years. In black men, WHR adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) ranged from 0.833 among those reporting upper and central weight gain to 0.812 among those reporting lower body weight gain (trend across five reported fat distribution categories, P = 0.0004). Corresponding values were, for white men, 0.852 to 0.831; for black women, 0.777 to 0.721; and for white women, 0.772 to 0.701 (each P < 0.0001). Reported fat distribution was associated with HDL-C in women, but not in men, and with fasting insulin in all groups. While these associations were somewhat weaker than with measured WHR, self-reported fat distribution does provide valid information about body fat distribution in young adults, particularly women.

A comparison of two methods to ascertain dietary intake: the CARDIA Study.

Data on dietary intake were collected in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study at the baseline examination in 1985-86 and again at the second examination 2 years later. At baseline, a diet history questionnaire developed for the CARDIA study was used; at the second exam the NCI (Block) food frequency questionnaire was used. The purpose of the present report is to compare the estimated nutrient intakes obtained with the two instruments; to compare correlations of nutrient intakes obtained at the two exams with those observed for other lifestyle and physiological variables also measured 2 years apart; and to assess ability to test hypotheses relating 2-year changes in risk factors to between-exam differences in reported nutrient intakes. Mean levels of reported intake were generally greater for both blacks and whites on the CARDIA diet history than on the Block food frequency. Rank order correlations of reported nutrient intakes between the two questionnaires indicated greater consistency between instruments for whites (r's ranging between 0.35 and 0.52) than for blacks (r's ranging between 0.29 and 0.45). Correlations over time for nutrients were smaller than those observed for body size measures and lipid levels but were similar in magnitude to those for blood pressure, physical activity, and life events. At both exams, total caloric intake was positively associated with physical activity (range of r's for CARDIA were 0.07 for white women to 0.23 for black men, the range of r's for Block were 0.06 for women to 0.11 for white men). Using data from the two examinations, 2-year changes in total plasma cholesterol were significantly related to 2 year changes in Keys scores. The results of this comparison are useful in that they show similarities and differences between two instruments developed to gather dietary intake data. The study also illustrates the need to monitor young adults during a time when rapid changes occur in many lifestyle and physiologic factors.

Patterns of self-rated health in older adults before and after sentinel health events.

OBJECTIVES: To describe and compare patterns of change in self-rated health for older adults before death and before and after stroke, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, cardiac procedure, hospital admission for cancer, and hip fracture. DESIGN: "Event cohort," measuring time in months before and after the event. SETTING: Four U.S. communities. PARTICIPANTS: 5888 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), sampled from Medicare rolls and followed up to 8 years. Mean age at baseline was 73. MEASUREMENTS: Self-rated health, including a category for death, assessed at 6-month intervals, and ascertainment of events. METHODS: We examined the percentage that was healthy each month in the 5 years before death and in the 2 years before and after the other events, and compared the patterns to a "no event" group and to one another, using graphs and linear regression. RESULTS: For people who died, health status declined slowly until about 9 months before death, when it dropped steeply. Comparing persons equally far from death, health was unrelated to age, but men and whites were healthier than women and blacks. Health for other events declined before the event, dropped steeply at the event, showed some recovery, and then declined further after the event. About 65% to 80% of the subjects were healthy 2 years before their event, but only 35% to 65% were healthy two years afterwards. Patterns were similar although less extreme for the "no event" group. CONCLUSION: Visualizing trajectories of health helps us understand how serious health events changes health. Conclusions about change must be drawn with care because of a variety of possible biases. We have described the trajectories in detail. Work is now needed to explain, predict, and possibly prevent such changes in health.