Interventions can shift the thermal optimum for parasitic disease transmission.

Temperature constrains the transmission of many pathogens. Interventions that target temperature-sensitive life stages, such as vector control measures that kill intermediate hosts, could shift the thermal optimum of transmission, thereby altering seasonal disease dynamics and rendering interventions less effective at certain times of the year and with global climate change. To test these hypotheses, we integrated an epidemiological model of schistosomiasis with empirically determined temperature-dependent traits of the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni and its intermediate snail host (Biomphalaria spp.). We show that transmission risk peaks at 21.7 °C (Topt ), and simulated interventions targeting snails and free-living parasite larvae increased Topt by up to 1.3 °C because intervention-related mortality overrode thermal constraints on transmission. This Topt shift suggests that snail control is more effective at lower temperatures, and global climate change will increase schistosomiasis risk in regions that move closer to Topt Considering regional transmission phenologies and timing of interventions when local conditions approach Topt will maximize human health outcomes.

Mechanisms underpinning community stability along a latitudinal gradient: Insights from a niche-based approach.

At large scales, the mechanisms underpinning stability in natural communities may vary in importance due to changes in species composition, mean abundance, and species richness. Here we link species characteristics (niche positions) and community characteristics (richness and abundance) to evaluate the importance of stability mechanisms in 156 butterfly communities monitored across three European countries and spanning five bioclimatic regions. We construct niche-based hierarchical structural Bayesian models to explain first differences in abundance, population stability, and species richness between the countries, and then explore how these factors impact community stability both directly and indirectly (via synchrony and population stability). Species richness was partially explained by the position of a site relative to the niches of the species pool, and species near the centre of their niche had higher average population stability. The differences in mean abundance, population stability, and species richness then influenced how much variation in community stability they explained across the countries. We found, using variance partitioning, that community stability in Finnish communities was most influenced by community abundance, whereas this aspect was unimportant in Spain with species synchrony explaining most variation; the UK was somewhat intermediate with both factors explaining variation. Across all countries, the diversity-stability relationship was indirect with species richness reducing synchrony which increased community stability, with no direct effects of species richness. Our results suggest that in natural communities, biogeographical variation observed in key drivers of stability, such as population abundance and species richness, leads to community stability being limited by different factors and that this can partially be explained due to the niche characteristics of the European butterfly assemblage.

Differential changes in life cycle-event phenology provide a window into regional population declines.

Climate change affects the phenology of annual life cycle events of organisms, such as reproduction and migration. Shifts in the timing of these events could have important population implications directly, or provide information about the mechanisms driving population trajectories, especially if they differ between life cycle event. We examine if such shifts occur in a declining migratory passerine bird (willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus), which exhibits latitudinally diverging population trajectories. We find evidence of phenological shifts in breeding initiation, breeding progression and moult that differ across geographic and spring temperature gradients. Moult initiation following warmer springs advances faster in the south than in the north, resulting in proportionally shorter breeding seasons, reflecting higher nest failure rates in the south and in warmer years. Tracking shifts in multiple life cycle events allowed us to identify points of failure in the breeding cycle in regions where the species has negative population trends, thereby demonstrating the utility of phenology analyses for illuminating mechanistic pathways underlying observed population trajectories.

Quantifying seasonal and diel variation in Anopheline and Culex human biting rates in Southern Ecuador.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying mosquito biting rates for specific locations enables estimation of mosquito-borne disease risk, and can inform intervention efforts. Measuring biting itself is fraught with ethical concerns, so the landing rate of mosquitoes on humans is often used as a proxy measure. Southern coastal Ecuador was historically endemic for malaria (Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax), although successful control efforts in the 2000s eliminated autochthonous transmission (since 2011). This study presents an analysis of data collected during the elimination period. METHODS: Human landing catch (HLC) data for three mosquito taxa: two malaria vectors, Anopheles albimanus and Anopheles punctimacula, and grouped Culex spp. were examined for this study. These data were collected by the National Vector Control Service of the Ministry of Health over a 5-year time span (2007-2012) in five cities in southern coastal Ecuador, at multiple households, in all months of the year, during dusk-dawn (18:00-6:00) hours, often at both indoor and outdoor locations. Hurdle models were used to determine if biting activity was fundamentally different for the three taxa, and to identify spatial and temporal factors influencing bite rate. Due to the many different approaches to studying and quantifying bite rates in the literature, a glossary of terms was created, to facilitate comparative studies in the future. RESULTS: Biting trends varied significantly with species and time. All taxa exhibited exophagic feeding behavior, and outdoor locations increased both the odds and incidence of bites across taxa. Anopheles albimanus was most frequently observed biting, with an average of 4.7 bites/h. The highest and lowest respective months for significant biting activity were March and July for An. albimanus, July and August for An. punctimacula, and February and July for Culex spp. CONCLUSIONS: Fine-scale differences in endophagy and exophagy, and temporal differences among months and hours exist in biting patterns among mosquito taxa in southern coastal Ecuador. This analysis provides detailed information for targeting vector control activities, and household level vector prevention strategies. These data were collected as part of routine vector surveillance conducted by the Ministry of Health, and such data have not been collected since. Reinstating such surveillance measures would provide important information to aid in preventing malaria re-emergence.

The discovery of new deep-sea hydrothermal vent communities in the southern ocean and implications for biogeography.

Since the first discovery of deep-sea hydrothermal vents along the Galápagos Rift in 1977, numerous vent sites and endemic faunal assemblages have been found along mid-ocean ridges and back-arc basins at low to mid latitudes. These discoveries have suggested the existence of separate biogeographic provinces in the Atlantic and the North West Pacific, the existence of a province including the South West Pacific and Indian Ocean, and a separation of the North East Pacific, North East Pacific Rise, and South East Pacific Rise. The Southern Ocean is known to be a region of high deep-sea species diversity and centre of origin for the global deep-sea fauna. It has also been proposed as a gateway connecting hydrothermal vents in different oceans but is little explored because of extreme conditions. Since 2009 we have explored two segments of the East Scotia Ridge (ESR) in the Southern Ocean using a remotely operated vehicle. In each segment we located deep-sea hydrothermal vents hosting high-temperature black smokers up to 382.8°C and diffuse venting. The chemosynthetic ecosystems hosted by these vents are dominated by a new yeti crab (Kiwa n. sp.), stalked barnacles, limpets, peltospiroid gastropods, anemones, and a predatory sea star. Taxa abundant in vent ecosystems in other oceans, including polychaete worms (Siboglinidae), bathymodiolid mussels, and alvinocaridid shrimps, are absent from the ESR vents. These groups, except the Siboglinidae, possess planktotrophic larvae, rare in Antarctic marine invertebrates, suggesting that the environmental conditions of the Southern Ocean may act as a dispersal filter for vent taxa. Evidence from the distinctive fauna, the unique community structure, and multivariate analyses suggest that the Antarctic vent ecosystems represent a new vent biogeographic province. However, multivariate analyses of species present at the ESR and at other deep-sea hydrothermal vents globally indicate that vent biogeography is more complex than previously recognised.

Flight heights obtained from GPS versus altimeters influence estimates of collision risk with offshore wind turbines in Lesser Black-backed Gulls Larus fuscus.

The risk posed by offshore wind farms to seabirds through collisions with turbine blades is greatly influenced by species-specific flight behaviour. Bird-borne telemetry devices may provide improved measurement of aspects of bird behaviour, notably individual and behaviour specific flight heights. However, use of data from devices that use the GPS or barometric altimeters in the gathering of flight height data is nevertheless constrained by a current lack of understanding of the error and calibration of these methods. Uncertainty remains regarding the degree to which errors associated with these methods can affect recorded flight heights, which may in turn have a significant influence on estimates of collision risk produced by Collision Risk Models (CRMs), which incorporate flight height distribution as an input. Using GPS/barometric altimeter tagged Lesser Black-backed Gulls Larus fuscus from two breeding colonies in the UK, we examine comparative flight heights produced by these devices, and their associated errors. We present a novel method of calibrating barometric altimeters using behaviour characterised from GPS data and open-source modelled atmospheric pressure. We examine the magnitude of difference between offshore flight heights produced from GPS and altimeters, comparing these measurements across sampling schedules, colonies, and years. We found flight heights produced from altimeter data to be significantly, although not consistently, higher than those produced from GPS data. This relationship was sustained across differing sampling schedules of five minutes and of 10 s, and between study colonies. We found the magnitude of difference between GPS and altimeter derived flight heights to also vary between individuals, potentially related to the robustness of calibration factors used. Collision estimates for theoretical wind farms were consequently significantly higher when using flight height distributions generated from barometric altimeters. Improving confidence in telemetry-obtained flight height distributions, which may then be applied to CRMs, requires sources of errors in these measurements to be identified. Our study improves knowledge of the calibration processes for flight height measurements based on telemetry data, with the aim of increasing confidence in their use in future assessments of collision risk and reducing the uncertainty over predicted mortality associated with wind farms.

Data Integration for Large-Scale Models of Species Distributions.

With the expansion in the quantity and types of biodiversity data being collected, there is a need to find ways to combine these different sources to provide cohesive summaries of species' potential and realized distributions in space and time. Recently, model-based data integration has emerged as a means to achieve this by combining datasets in ways that retain the strengths of each. We describe a flexible approach to data integration using point process models, which provide a convenient way to translate across ecological currencies. We highlight recent examples of large-scale ecological models based on data integration and outline the conceptual and technical challenges and opportunities that arise.

Environmental Drivers of Ranavirus in Free-Living Amphibians in Constructed Ponds.

Amphibian ranaviruses occur globally, but we are only beginning to understand mechanisms for emergence. Ranaviruses are aquatic pathogens which can cause > 90% mortality in larvae of many aquatic-breeding amphibians, making them important focal host taxa. Host susceptibilities and virulence of ranaviruses have been studied extensively in controlled laboratory settings, but research is needed to identify drivers of infection in natural environments. Constructed ponds, essential components of wetland restoration, have been associated with higher ranavirus prevalence than natural ponds, posing a conundrum for conservation efforts, and emphasizing the need to understand potential drivers. In this study, we analyzed 4 years of Frog virus 3 prevalence and associated environmental parameters in populations of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and green frogs (Lithobates clamitans) in a constructed pond system. High prevalence was best predicted by low temperature, high host density, low zooplankton concentrations, and Gosner stages approaching metamorphosis. This study identified important variables to measure in assessments of ranaviral infection risk in newly constructed ponds, including effects of zooplankton, which have not been previously quantified in natural settings. Examining factors mediating diseases in natural environments, particularly in managed conservation settings, is important to both validate laboratory findings in situ, and to inform future conservation planning, particularly in the context of adaptive management.

Microbe biogeography tracks water masses in a dynamic oceanic frontal system.

Dispersal limitation, not just environmental selection, plays an important role in microbial biogeography. The distance-decay relationship is thought to be weak in habitats where dispersal is high, such as in the pelagic environment, where ocean currents facilitate microbial dispersal. Most studies of microbial community composition to date have observed little geographical heterogeneity on a regional scale (100 km). We present a study of microbial communities across a dynamic frontal zone in the southwest Indian Ocean and investigate the spatial structure of the microbes with respect to the different water masses separated by these fronts. We collected 153 samples of free-living microorganisms from five seamounts located along a gradient from subtropical to subantarctic waters and across three depth layers: (i) the sub-surface chlorophyll maximum (approx. 40 m), (ii) the bottom of the euphotic zone (approx. 200 m), and (iii) the benthic boundary layer (300-2000 m). Diversity and abundance of microbial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were assessed by amplification and sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene on an Illumina MiSeq platform. Multivariate analyses showed that microbial communities were structured more strongly by depth than by latitude, with similar phyla occurring within each depth stratum across seamounts. The deep layer was homogeneous across the entire survey area, corresponding to the spread of Antarctic intermediate water. However, within both the sub-surface layer and the intermediate depth stratum there was evidence for OTU turnover across fronts. The microbiome of these layers appears to be divided into three distinct biological regimes corresponding to the subantarctic surface water, the convergence zone and subtropical. We show that microbial biogeography across depth and latitudinal gradients is linked to the water masses the microbes persist in, resulting in regional patterns of microbial biogeography that correspond to the regional scale physical oceanography.

Changing measurements or changing movements? Sampling scale and movement model identifiability across generations of biologging technology.

Animal movement patterns contribute to our understanding of variation in breeding success and survival of individuals, and the implications for population dynamics. Over time, sensor technology for measuring movement patterns has improved. Although older technologies may be rendered obsolete, the existing data are still valuable, especially if new and old data can be compared to test whether a behavior has changed over time. We used simulated data to assess the ability to quantify and correctly identify patterns of seabird flight lengths under observational regimes used in successive generations of wet/dry logging technology. Care must be taken when comparing data collected at differing timescales, even when using inference procedures that incorporate the observational process, as model selection and parameter estimation may be biased. In practice, comparisons may only be valid when degrading all data to match the lowest resolution in a set. Changes in tracking technology, such as the wet/dry loggers explored here, that lead to aggregation of measurements at different temporal scales make comparisons challenging. We therefore urge ecologists to use synthetic data to assess whether accurate parameter estimation is possible for models comparing disparate data sets before planning experiments and conducting analyses such as responses to environmental changes or the assessment of management actions.