Accuracy and Prognostic Significance of Oncologists' Estimates and Scenarios for Survival Time in Advanced Gastric Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Worst-case, typical, and best-case scenarios for survival, based on simple multiples of an individual's expected survival time (EST), estimated by their oncologist, are a useful way of formulating and explaining prognosis. We aimed to determine the accuracy and prognostic significance of oncologists' estimates of EST, and the accuracy of the resulting scenarios for survival time, in advanced gastric cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixty-six oncologists estimated the EST at baseline for each of the 152 participants they enrolled in the INTEGRATE trial. We hypothesized that oncologists' estimates of EST would be unbiased (∼50% would be longer or shorter than the observed survival time [OST]); imprecise (<33% within 0.67-1.33 times the OST); independently predictive of overall survival (OS); and accurate at deriving scenarios for survival time with approximately 10% of patients dying within a quarter of their EST (worst-case scenario), 50% living within half to double their EST (typical scenario), and 10% living three or more times their EST (best-case scenario). RESULTS: Oncologists' estimates of EST were unbiased (45% were shorter than the OST, 55% were longer); imprecise (29% were within 0.67-1.33 times observed); moderately discriminative (Harrell's C-statistic 0.62, p = .001); and an independently significant predictor of OS (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.95; p = .001) in a Cox model including performance status, number of metastatic sites, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥3, treatment group, age, and health-related quality of life (EORTC-QLQC30 physical function score). Scenarios for survival time derived from oncologists' estimates were remarkably accurate: 9% of patients died within a quarter of their EST, 57% lived within half to double their EST, and 12% lived three times their EST or longer. CONCLUSION: Oncologists' estimates of EST were unbiased, imprecise, moderately discriminative, and independently significant predictors of OS. Simple multiples of the EST accurately estimated worst-case, typical, and best-case scenarios for survival time in advanced gastric cancer. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Results of this study demonstrate that oncologists' estimates of expected survival time for their patients with advanced gastric cancer were unbiased, imprecise, moderately discriminative, and independently significant predictors of overall survival. Simple multiples of the expected survival time accurately estimated worst-case, typical, and best-case scenarios for survival time in advanced gastric cancer.

Risk and outcomes of chemotherapy-induced diarrhea (CID) among patients with colorectal cancer receiving multi-cycle chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is a common toxicity of chemotherapy, but the practice of reporting only severe grades (≥ 3) in clinical trials results in misleading conclusions of significance. Epidemiology remains poorly described, and effects of multi-cycle regimens have not been investigated. To better understand the risks, symptom burden and consequences of CID, we studied patients receiving chemotherapy for colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: One hundred and fourteen patients receiving FOLFOX (95 patients, 530 cycles), FOLFOX + monoclonal antibodies (10 patients, 49 cycles) or FOLFIRI (9 patients, 50 cycles) were enrolled. CID was identified from diaries at baseline and daily during up to 8 chemotherapy cycles using supplemental questions on the Oral Mucositis Daily Questionnaire, a valid tool for collecting patient-reported outcomes of regimen-related mucosal injury. Patients scored CID severity from 0 "none" to 10 "worst possible," and quantity from "little" to "severe" on a 5-point scale. Quality of life was measured using the FACT-G, and fatigue using the FACIT fatigue scale. RESULTS: CID occurred in 89% of patients on FOLFIRI, 50% on FOLFOX + monoclonal antibodies and 56% on FOLFOX alone. The risk of a first episode was highest during Cycle 1 (35 %) and dropped to <10% during Cycles 3-5. Patients with CID reported poorer quality of life scores than those without CID (77.1 vs 80.7). CONCLUSIONS: Diarrhea occurs more commonly than typically appreciated during chemotherapy for CRC. Risk is highest during first exposure, suggesting variable susceptibility. Identification of this high-risk subgroup for prophylaxis could improve the quality of life.