Development of predictive risk models for major adverse cardiovascular events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using health insurance claims data.

BACKGROUND: There exist several predictive risk models for cardiovascular disease (CVD), including some developed specifically for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the models developed for a diabetic population are based on information derived from medical records or laboratory results, which are not typically available to entities like payers or quality of care organizations. The objective of this study is to develop and validate models predicting the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with T2DM based on medical insurance claims data. METHODS: Patients with T2DM aged 50 years or older were identified from the Optum™ Integrated Real World Evidence Electronic Health Records and Claims de-identified database (10/01/2006-09/30/2016). Risk factors were assessed over a 12-month baseline period and cardiovascular events were monitored from the end of the baseline period until end of data availability, continuous enrollment, or death. Risk models were developed using logistic regressions separately for patients with and without prior CVD, and for each outcome: (1) major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; i.e., non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, CVD-related death); (2) any MACE, hospitalization for unstable angina, or hospitalization for congestive heart failure; (3) CVD-related death. Models were developed and validated on 70% and 30% of the sample, respectively. Model performance was assessed using C-statistics. RESULTS: A total of 181,619 patients were identified, including 136,544 (75.2%) without prior CVD and 45,075 (24.8%) with a history of CVD. Age, diabetes-related hospitalizations, prior CVD diagnoses and chronic pulmonary disease were the most important predictors across all models. C-statistics ranged from 0.70 to 0.81, indicating that the models performed well. The additional inclusion of risk factors derived from pharmacy claims (e.g., use of antihypertensive, and use of antihyperglycemic) or from medical records and laboratory measures (e.g., hemoglobin A1c, urine albumin to creatinine ratio) only marginally improved the performance of the models. CONCLUSION: The claims-based models developed could reliably predict the risk of cardiovascular events in T2DM patients, without requiring pharmacy claims or laboratory measures. These models could be relevant for providers and payers and help implement approaches to prevent cardiovascular events in high-risk diabetic patients.

Recurrent hospitalization and healthcare resource use among patients with deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism: findings from a multi-payer analysis.

The objective of this study was to assess deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism (DVT/PE) recurrence rates and resource utilization among patients with an initial DVT or PE event across multiple payer perspectives. Retrospective analyses were performed using a software tool that analyzes health plan claims to evaluate treatment patterns and resource utilization for various cardiovascular conditions. Six databases were analyzed from three payer perspectives (Commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid). Patients were ≥18 years old with a primary diagnosis of DVT or PE associated with an inpatient and/or emergency room claim, had received an antithrombotic within 7 days before or 14 days after index, and had no diagnosis of atrial fibrillation during follow-up. Outcomes were assessed over a 1 year period following index. More PE patients were hospitalized for their index event than DVT patients (42-59 % DVT and 69-86 % PE) and had longer mean length of stay (2.35-2.95 days DVT and 3.26-3.76 days PE). Recurrent event rates among PE patients (12-32 %) were higher than those for DVT patients (6-16 %) across all payers. The highest rate of recurrence was observed among the Medicaid population [23 % overall (VTE); 16 % DVT; 32 % PE]. All-cause hospitalization in the year following their VTE episode occurred in 23-67 % DVT patients and 30-68 % PE patients. Medicaid had the highest proportion of patients with hospitalizations and ER visits. Recurrent VTE events and all-cause hospitalizations are relatively common, especially for patients who had a PE, and among those in the Medicaid payer population.

Insurer costs of COVID-19 by disease severity and duration.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze US commercial insurance payments associated with COVID-19 as a function of severity and duration of disease. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective database analysis. METHODS: Patients with COVID-19 between April 1, 2020, and June 30, 2021, in the Merative MarketScan Commercial database were identified and stratified as having asymptomatic, mild, moderate (with and without lower respiratory disease), or severe/critical (S/C) disease based on the severity of the acute COVID-19 infection. Duration of disease (DOD) was estimated for all patients. Patients with DOD longer than 12 weeks were defined as having post-COVID-19 condition (PCC). Outcomes were all-cause payments (ACP) and disease-specific payments (DSP) for the entire DOD. Variables included demographic and comorbidities at the time of acute disease. Adjusted payments by disease severity were estimated using generalized linear models (γ distribution with log link). RESULTS: A total of 738,339 patients were included (374,401 asymptomatic, 156,220 mild, 180,213 moderate, and 27,505 S/C cases). DSP increased from $217 (95% CI, $214-221) for asymptomatic cases to $2744 (95% CI, $2678-$2811) for moderate cases with lower respiratory disease and $28,250 (95% CI, $26,963-$29,538) for S/C cases. ACP increased from $505 (95% CI, $497-$512) for asymptomatic cases to $46,538 (95% CI, $44,096-$48,979) for S/C cases. The DSP and ACP further increased by $50,736 (95% CI, $45,337-$56,136) and $94,839 (95% CI, $88,029-$101,649), respectively, in S/C cases with PCC vs a DOD of fewer than 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 payments for S/C cases were more than 10-fold greater than those of moderate cases and further increased by nearly $95,000 in S/C cases with PCC vs a DOD of fewer than 4 weeks.

Venous Thromboembolism Recurrence Among Patients Who Abandon Oral Anticoagulant Therapy in the USA: A Retrospective Longitudinal Study.

INTRODUCTION: Among patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are recommended for preventing thromboembolic recurrence, complications, and mortality. This study compared the risk of VTE recurrence among patients who abandoned their first DOAC fill ("abandoners") relative to patients who did not ("non-abandoners"). METHODS: Adults with VTE who were prescribed DOACs were selected from Symphony Health, an ICON plc Company, PatientSource®, April 1, 2017 to October 31, 2020. Patients who abandoned their first (index) DOAC fill were classified as abandoners and patients with an approved index DOAC fill as non-abandoners. Baseline characteristics were balanced between cohorts using inverse probability of treatment weighting. VTE recurrence based on the first post-index VTE event (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) was ascertained and compared between cohorts using weighted Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models during the follow-up period (i.e., index DOAC fill date to end of clinical activity or data availability). RESULTS: After weighting, 152,443 and 153,931 patients comprised the abandoner and non-abandoner cohorts, respectively (mean age 60 years; 53% female; mean follow-up duration 15 months). After 3 months of follow-up, the probability of VTE recurrence was 7.74% in the abandoner cohort and 4.65% in the non-abandoner cohort; the risk of recurrence was 72% higher in the abandoner versus non-abandoner cohort (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 1.72 [1.64, 1.82]; p < 0.0001). At 12 months, the probability of recurrence was 9.91% in the abandoner cohort and 6.89% in the non-abandoner cohort; the risk of recurrence was 53% higher in the abandoner versus non-abandoner cohort (1.53 [1.46, 1.61]; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Patients abandoning the first DOAC fill had significantly higher risk of VTE recurrence compared to patients who did not abandon the first fill. Ensuring proper access and encouraging early and continuous use of DOACs may help prevent severe and fatal complications among patients with VTE.

Ischemic stroke and systemic embolism among patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation who abandon oral anticoagulant therapy.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the risk of stroke and systemic embolism (SE) among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who abandoned their first direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) fill ("abandoners") relative to patients who continued DOACs beyond the first fill ("continuers"). METHODS: In this retrospective longitudinal study, adults with NVAF prescribed DOACs were selected from Symphony Health, an ICON plc Company, PatientSource, 1 April 2017 to 31 October 2020. A 90-day landmark period following the first DOAC fill was used to classify patients as abandoners or continuers. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to balance baseline characteristics between cohorts. Time to ischemic stroke/SE was described and compared between cohorts using weighted Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models from the end of the landmark period until end of clinical activity or data. RESULTS: After weighting, 200,398 and 211,352 patients comprised the abandoner and continuer cohorts, respectively. The mean duration of follow-up was 14.9 and 15.7 months, respectively. At 12 months of follow-up, the probability of ischemic stroke/SE was 1.34% in the abandoner cohort and 1.00% in the continuer cohort; the risk of ischemic stroke/SE was 35% higher in the abandoner versus continuer cohort (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 1.35 [1.20, 1.51]; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with NVAF who abandoned the first DOAC fill had significantly higher risk of ischemic stroke/SE compared to patients who continued therapy beyond the first fill. There is an unmet need for better access to DOACs so that the long-term risk of poor outcomes may be minimized.

Venous thromboembolism recurrence among one-and-done direct oral anticoagulant users: a retrospective longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are the American Society of Hematology guideline-recommended treatment for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in the United States (US). AIM: To compare risk of VTE recurrence between patients who, following the first fill, discontinued ("one-and-done") versus those who continued ("continuers") DOACs. METHOD: Open source US insurance claims data (04/1/2017 to 10/31/2020) were used to select adult patients with VTE initiated on DOACs (index date). Patients with only one DOAC claim during the 45-day landmark period (starting on the index date) were classified as one-and-done and the remaining as continuers. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to reweight baseline characteristics between cohorts. VTE recurrence based on the first post-index deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism event was compared using weighted Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models from landmark period end to clinical activity or data end. RESULTS: 27% of patients initiating DOACs were classified as one-and-done. After weighting, 117,186 and 116,587 patients were included in the one-and-done and continuer cohorts, respectively (mean age 60 years; 53% female; mean follow-up 15 months). After 12 months of follow-up, the probability of VTE recurrence was 3.99% and 3.36% in the one-and-done and continuer cohorts; the risk of recurrence was 19% higher in the one-and-done cohort (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 1.19 [1.13, 1.25]). CONCLUSION: Substantial proportion of patients discontinued DOAC therapy after the first fill, which was associated with significantly higher risk of VTE recurrence. Early access to DOACs should be encouraged to reduce the risk of VTE recurrence.

Ischemic Stroke and Systemic Embolism Among One-and-Done Direct Oral Anticoagulant Users with Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation.

INTRODUCTION: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are essential in ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) prevention among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This study compared the risk of ischemic stroke/SE among patients with NVAF who discontinued DOACs following the first fill ("one-and-done") relative to patients who continued DOACs beyond the first fill ("continuers"). METHODS: De-identified data from Symphony Health, an ICON plc Company, PatientSource®, April 1, 2017 to October 31, 2020, were used to identify adults with NVAF initiated on DOACs (index date). Patients with only one DOAC claim during the 90-day landmark period starting on the index date were classified as one-and-done and the remaining as continuers. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to balance baseline characteristics in the cohorts. Time from the landmark period end to the first ischemic stroke/SE event or, among those without the event, to clinical activity or data end was compared between balanced cohorts using survival analysis. RESULTS: Of patients initiating DOACs, 23.6% were classified as one-and-done users. After weighting was performed, 241,159 and 238,889 patients comprised the one-and-done and continuer cohorts, respectively. At 12 months of follow-up, the probability of ischemic stroke/SE was 1.44% in the one-and-done cohort and 1.00% in the continuer cohort [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.44 (1.34-1.54); p < 0.0001]. Results at earlier and later time points and in a sensitivity analysis with a 75-day landmark period were similar. CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of patients were one-and-done DOAC users, which was associated with significantly higher risk of ischemic stroke/SE events. There is an unmet need to improve access and encourage continuous use of DOACs among patients with NVAF so that severe and fatal complications may be mitigated.

Effectiveness and Safety of Rivaroxaban Versus Warfarin among Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients with Concomitant Obstructive Sleep Apnea.

Background Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with an increased incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF), hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and death. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban versus warfarin in nonvalvular AF (NVAF) patients with concomitant OSA. Methods This was an analysis of electronic health record (EHR) data from November 2010 to December 2021. We included adults with NVAF and OSA at baseline, newly initiated on rivaroxaban or warfarin, and with ≥12 months of prior EHR activity. Patients with valvular disease, alternative indications for oral anticoagulation, or who were pregnant were excluded. The incidence rates of developing stroke or systemic embolism (SSE) and bleeding-related hospitalization were evaluated. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using propensity score-overlap weighted proportional hazards regression. Multiple sensitivity and subgroup analyses were performed. Results We included 21,940 rivaroxaban (20.1% at the 15 mg dose) and 38,213 warfarin (time-in-therapeutic range = 47.3 ± 28.3%) patients. Rivaroxaban was found to have similar hazard of SSE compared to warfarin (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.82-1.03). Rivaroxaban was associated with a reduced rate of bleeding-related hospitalizations (HR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.78-0.92) versus warfarin, as well as reductions in intracranial (HR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.62-0.94) and extracranial (HR = 0.89, 95%CI = 0.81-0.97) bleeding. Upon sensitivity analysis restricting the population to men with a CHA 2 DS 2 VASc score ≥2 or women with a score ≥3, rivaroxaban was associated with a significant 33% risk reduction in SSE and 43% reduction in the risk of bleeding-related hospitalization. No significant interaction for the SSE or bleeding-related hospitalization outcomes was observed upon subgroup analyses. Conclusion Among patients with NVAF and OSA, rivaroxaban had similar SSE risk versus warfarin but was associated with reductions in any intracranial and extracranial bleeding-related hospitalizations. Rivaroxaban was associated with significant reductions in SSE and bleeding-related hospitalizations when the study population was restricted to patients with a moderate-to-high risk of SSE. These data should provide prescribers with additional confidence in selecting rivaroxaban in NVAF patients who have OSA at the time of anticoagulation initiation.

Healthcare Resource Utilization and Costs of Rivaroxaban Versus Warfarin Among Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Patients with Diabetes in a US Population.

INTRODUCTION: The healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and costs of oral anticoagulant-naïve patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and diabetes initiated on rivaroxaban or warfarin in the United States (US) has not been previously evaluated. METHODS: This retrospective study used data from the Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database (1 January, 2012 to 30 September, 2021) to evaluate the HRU and costs of adult patients with NVAF and diabetes newly initiated on rivaroxaban or warfarin (on or after January 2013). Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to adjust for confounding between cohorts. HRU and costs (USD 2021) were assessed per patient-year (PPY) post-treatment initiation. Weighted cohorts were compared using rate ratios (RR) from Poisson regression models, odds ratios (OR) from logistic regression models, and cost differences; 95% confidence intervals (CI) and p values were generated using non-parametric bootstrap procedures. RESULTS: After IPTW, 17,881 and 19,274 patients initiated on rivaroxaban and warfarin were included, respectively (mean age: 73 years; 40% female). During 12 months of follow-up, the rivaroxaban cohort had lower all-cause HRU PPY across all components, including lower rates of inpatient stays (RR: 0.84, 95% CI 0.81, 0.88), outpatient visits (RR: 0.67, 95% CI 0.66, 0.68), and 30 day hospital readmission (OR: 0.75, 95% CI 0.66, 0.83; all p < 0.001) compared to the warfarin cohort. Moreover, rivaroxaban was associated with medical cost savings PPY (mean cost difference: - $9306, 95% CI - $11,769, - $6607), which compensated for higher pharmacy costs relative to warfarin (mean cost difference: $5518, 95% CI $5193, $5839), resulting in significantly lower all-cause total healthcare costs for rivaroxaban versus warfarin (mean cost difference: - $3788, 95% CI - $6258, - $1035; all p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Among NVAF patients with diabetes in a real-world US setting, rivaroxaban was associated with lower healthcare costs compared to warfarin.

Comparative outcomes associated with rivaroxaban versus warfarin use in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation or acute venous thromboembolism managed in the United States: a systematic review of observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Advancing age is a risk factor for developing non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) or acute venous thromboembolism (VTE). We assessed the comparative effectiveness, safety, costs, and healthcare utilization associated with rivaroxaban versus warfarin in patients of advanced age managed in the United States (US). METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of Medline and Embase through April 2023 to identify real-world evidence (RWE) studies of older adults (at least 65+ years of age) with either NVAF or VTE who received either rivaroxaban or warfarin in the US and reported an outcome of stroke or systemic embolism (SSE), ischemic stroke (IS), recurrent VTE, major bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage, costs, or healthcare resource utilization. We classified each outcome of interest per study as "positive" (lower risk), "negative" (higher risk), or "neutral" based upon the summary effect size of rivaroxaban versus warfarin. RESULTS: Twenty-nine RWE studies met inclusion criteria, mostly (83%) in NVAF populations. For SSE with rivaroxaban versus warfarin, 68.8% of studies showed positive effects and 31.2% showed neutral outcome. For major bleeding, 57.7% showed neutral effects, 38.5% showed negative effects, and 3.8% of studies showed positive effects with rivaroxaban versus warfarin. Of the two studies reporting cost data, both were positive, showing lower costs for SSE for rivaroxaban versus warfarin and neutral cost for major bleeding costs. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review supports findings from subgroup analyses of randomized controlled trials that, compared with warfarin, rivaroxaban is associated with generally neutral or positive effects on thrombosis and a mixed picture on bleeding outcomes in older adults with either NVAF or VTE treated in the United States.

Unintended Consequences of Increased Out-of-Pocket Costs During Medicare Coverage Gap on Anticoagulant Discontinuation and Stroke.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to assess the risk of direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) discontinuation among Medicare beneficiaries with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who reach the Medicare coverage gap stratified by low-income subsidy (LIS) status and the impact of DOAC discontinuation on rates of stroke and systemic embolism (SE) among beneficiaries with increased out-of-pocket (OOP) costs due to not receiving LIS. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, Medicare claims data (2015-2020) were used to identify beneficiaries with NVAF who initiated rivaroxaban or apixaban and entered the coverage gap during ≥ 1 year. DOAC discontinuation rates during the coverage gap were stratified by receipt of Medicare Part D Low-Income Subsidy (LIS), a proxy for not experiencing increased OOP costs. Among non-LIS beneficiaries, incidence rates of stroke and SE during the subsequent 12 months were compared between beneficiaries who did and did not discontinue DOAC in the coverage gap. RESULTS: Among 303,695 beneficiaries, mean age was 77.3 years, and 28% received LIS. After adjusting for baseline differences, non-LIS beneficiaries (N = 218,838) had 78% higher risk of discontinuing DOAC during the coverage gap vs. LIS recipients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.78; 95% CI [1.73, 1.82]). Among non-LIS beneficiaries, DOAC discontinuation during coverage gap (N = 91,397; 34%) was associated with 14% higher risk of experiencing stroke and SE during the subsequent 12 months (aHR, 1.14; 95% CI [1.08, 1.20]). CONCLUSION: Increased OOP costs during Medicare coverage gap were associated with higher risk of DOAC discontinuation, which in turn was associated with higher risk of stroke and SE among beneficiaries with NVAF.

Real-world weight changes in people with HIV-1 at risk of weight gain (female, Black or Hispanic) switching from integrase strand transfer inhibitors.

Aim: Compare weight changes between people living with HIV-1 (PLWH) at high risk of weight gain (females, Blacks or Hispanics) switching from an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) to a protease inhibitor (PI) or another INSTI. Materials & methods: Mean weight changes from pre-switch to up-to-12 months post-switch were retrospectively compared between PLWH switching to a PI or INSTI. Results: 356 PLWH were eligible. At 9- and 12-month post-switch, weight increases were observed for INSTI (weight: +1.55 kg and +1.59 kg), while decreases were observed for PI (-0.23 kg and -1.59 kg); differences between cohorts widened over time. Conclusion: These data suggest that switching off an INSTI may be a management tool to mitigate or reverse weight gain.

Incidence of cardiometabolic outcomes among people living with HIV-1 initiated on integrase strand transfer inhibitor versus non-integrase strand transfer inhibitor antiretroviral therapies: a retrospective analysis of insurance claims in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been associated with weight gain, though there is limited information on associations between ART-related weight gain and cardiometabolic outcomes among people living with HIV-1 (PLWH). We, therefore, evaluated risks of incident cardiometabolic outcomes following INSTI versus non-INSTI-based ART initiation in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study using IBM MarketScan Research Databases (12 August 2012-31 January 2021). Treatment-naïve PLWH initiating ART (index date) on/after 12 August 2013 (approval date of the first second-generation INSTI, dolutegravir) were included and censored at regimen switch/discontinuation, end of insurance eligibility or end of data availability. We used inverse probability of treatment weights constructed with baseline (12 months pre-index) characteristics to account for differences between INSTI- and non-INSTI-initiating cohorts. Doubly robust hazard ratios (HRs) obtained from weighted multivariable Cox regression were used to compare time to incident cardiometabolic outcomes (congestive heart failure [CHF], coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, stroke/transient ischemic attack, hypertension, type II diabetes, lipid disorders, lipodystrophy and metabolic syndrome) by INSTI-initiation status. RESULTS: Weighted INSTI (mean age = 39 years, 23% female, 70% commercially insured, 30% Medicaid insured) and non-INSTI (mean age = 39 years, 24% female, 71% commercially insured, 29% Medicaid insured) cohorts included 7059 and 7017 PLWH, respectively. The most common INSTI-containing regimens were elvitegravir-based (43.4%), dolutegravir-based (33.3%) and bictegravir-based (18.4%); the most common non-INSTI-containing regimens were darunavir-based (31.5%), rilpivirine-based (30.4%) and efavirenz-based (28.3%). Mean±standard deviation follow-up periods were 1.5±1.5 and 1.1±1.2 years in INSTI- and non-INSTI-initiating cohorts, respectively. INSTI initiators were at a clinically and significantly increased risk of experiencing incident CHF (HR = 2.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08-4.05; p = 0.036), myocardial infarction (HR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.03-5.65; p = 0.036) and lipid disorders (HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.04-1.58; p = 0.020); there was no evidence of an increased risk for other individual or composite outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Over a short average follow-up period of <2 years, INSTI use among treatment-naïve PLWH was associated with an increased risk of several cardiometabolic outcomes, such as CHF, myocardial infarction and lipid disorders, compared to non-INSTI use. Further research accounting for additional potential confounders and with longer follow-up is warranted to more accurately and precisely quantify the impact of INSTI-containing ART on long-term cardiometabolic outcomes.

Weight and BMI Changes Following Initiation of Emtricitabine/Tenofovir Alafenamide Co-Formulated with Darunavir or Co-Administered with Dolutegravir in Overweight or Obese, ART-Naïve People Living with HIV-1.

Introduction: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor-based regimens (eg, containing dolutegravir [DTG]) are associated with weight/body mass index (BMI) increases among people living with HIV-1 (PLWH). Assessing antiretroviral therapy (ART)-related weight/BMI changes is challenging, as PLWH may experience return-to-health weight gain as a result of viral suppression. This retrospective, longitudinal real-world study compared weight/BMI outcomes among overweight/obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m2; thus excluding return-to-health weight/BMI changes), treatment-naïve PLWH who initiated darunavir (DRV)/cobicistat (c)/emtricitabine (FTC)/tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) or DTG + FTC/TAF. Methods: Treatment-naïve PLWH with BMI ≥25 kg/m2 who initiated DRV/c/FTC/TAF or DTG + FTC/TAF (index date) had ≥12 months of baseline observation and ≥1 weight/BMI measurement in baseline and post-index periods in the Symphony Health IDV® database (07/17/2017-12/31/2021) were included. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to balance differences in baseline characteristics between cohorts. On-treatment time-to-weight/BMI increases ≥5% were compared between cohorts using weighted adjusted Cox models. Results: Post-IPTW, 76 overweight/obese DRV/c/FTC/TAF-treated (mean age = 51.2 years, 30.7% female, 35.6% Black, mean baseline BMI = 33.2 kg/m2) and 88 overweight/obese DTG + FTC/TAF-treated PLWH (mean age = 51.5 years, 31.4% female, 31.4% Black, mean baseline BMI = 32.7 kg/m2) were included. The median [interquartile range] time from ART initiation to weight/BMI increase ≥5% was shorter for the DTG + FTC/TAF cohort (21.8 [9.9, 32.3] months) than the DRV/c/FTC/TAF cohort (median and interquartile times not reached; Kaplan-Meier rate at 21.8 months = 20.8%). Over the entire follow-up, overweight/obese PLWH initiating DTG + FTC/TAF had a more than twofold greater risk of experiencing weight/BMI increase ≥5% compared to those initiating DRV/c/FTC/TAF (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]=2.43 [1.02; 7.04]; p = 0.036). Conclusion: Overweight/obese PLWH who initiated DTG + FTC/TAF had significantly greater risk of weight/BMI increase ≥5% compared to similar PLWH who initiated DRV/c/FTC/TAF and had shorter time-to-weight/BMI increase ≥5%, suggesting a need for additional monitoring to assess the risk of weight gain-related cardiometabolic disease.

Health care costs of COVID-19 vs influenza and pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate payments for the treatment of COVID-19 compared with that of influenza or viral pneumonia (IP), from the perspective of the US payer. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. METHODS: Patients with COVID-19 during the period from October 1, 2020, to February 1, 2021, or IP during the period from October 1, 2018, to February 1, 2019, in the IBM MarketScan databases were identified. The index was defined as the date of the first COVID-19 or IP diagnosis. Patients with COVID-19 were stratified by severity. Variables for all patients included demographics and comorbidities at the time of index and duration of disease. IP and COVID-19 cohorts were matched using propensity scores, and inflation-adjusted all-cause payments (ACP), and disease-specific payments (DSP) for IP vs COVID-19 were estimated using generalized linear models. RESULTS: Matched cohorts included 6332 Medicare (female, 58.5%; mean [SD] age, 75.3 [7.6] years), and 397,532 commercially insured patients (female, 57.6%; mean [SD] age, 34.7 [16.7] years). ACP and DSP were significantly higher in the COVID-19 cohort vs IP cohort. Payments for severe/critical COVID-19 were significantly greater than those for IP, with adjusted marginal incremental DSP and ACP of $24,852 (95% CI, $21,573-$28,132) and $50,325 (95% CI, $43,932-$56,718), respectively. IP was significantly less expensive than moderate COVID-19 for commercial payers but not Medicare. IP was more expensive than mild COVID-19 for all payers. CONCLUSIONS: Payments associated with severe/critical COVID-19 significantly exceeded those associated with IP. For Medicare, IP was more expensive than mild or moderate COVID-19. For commercial payers, IP was less expensive than moderate COVID-19 but more expensive than mild COVID-19.

Combination anticoagulant or P2Y12 inhibitor with low-dose aspirin versus low-dose aspirin alone in patients at risk or with documented coronary and/or peripheral artery disease.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic literature review and indirect treatment comparison (ITC) to identify, summarize and quantify randomized controlled trial (RCT) evidence evaluating combination anticoagulant or P2Y12 inhibitor with low-dose aspirin versus low-dose aspirin alone for the prevention of atherothrombotic events in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD). METHODS: We performed an updated search of CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE through 23 August 2021 to identify RCTs of adult patients with chronic CAD and/or PAD that compared combination anticoagulant or P2Y12 inhibitor with low-dose aspirin to low-dose aspirin alone. Outcomes of interest included major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) including cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction (MI) and bleeding. When needed, outcomes were pooled using random-effects models to generate hazard or risk ratios (HRs or RRs) and accompanying 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Adjusted ITCs using subsequent pooled HRs/RRs were then performed. RESULTS: Six publications reporting the results of two unique RCTs (one evaluating clopidogrel + aspirin vs. aspirin alone and the other rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily + aspirin vs. aspirin alone) were analyzed. The ITC suggested that rivaroxaban + aspirin was associated with a lower risk of MACEs compared with clopidogrel + aspirin (HR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68-0.98). When looking at the individual components of MACE, rivaroxaban + aspirin was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular death (HR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57-0.98) and stroke (RR = 0.67, 95 CI = 0.49-0.93) and similar risk of MI (RR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.70-1.23) versus clopidogrel + aspirin. No evidence of a difference in moderate-to-severe bleeding, fatal bleeding or intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) was seen between the two treatment strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to clopidogrel + low-dose aspirin, the use of rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily + low-dose aspirin reduced the risk of MACE, CV death and stroke including ischemic stroke in patients with or at high risk for chronic CAD and/or PAD. These benefits of rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily + low-dose aspirin compared to clopidogrel + low-dose aspirin appear to be achieved without significantly increasing patients' risk of moderate-to-severe bleeding, including ICH or fatal bleeding.

Global Implications for COVID-19 Vaccine Series Completion: Insights from Real-World Data from the United States.

This retrospective cohort analysis leveraged vaccination data for BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S in the United States from the Komodo Healthcare Map database, the TriNetX Dataworks USA Network, and Cerner Real-World EHR (electronic health record) Data to evaluate rates of adherence to and completion of COVID-19 vaccination series (November 2020 through June 2021). Individuals were indexed on the date they received the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, with an adherence follow-up window of 42 days. Adherence/completion rates were calculated in the overall cohort of each database and by month of initiation and stratified by age, race/ethnicity, and urban/rural status. Overall adherence and completion to 2-dose COVID-19 mRNA vaccine schedules ranged from 79.4% to 87.4% and 81.0% to 89.2%, respectively. In TriNetX and Cerner, mRNA-1273 recipients were generally less adherent compared with BNT162b2 across sociodemographic groups. In Komodo, rates of adherence/completion between mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 were similar. Adherence/completion were generally lower in younger (<65 years) versus older recipients (≥65 years), particularly for mRNA-1273. No other sociodemographic-based gaps in vaccine adherence/completion were identified. These data demonstrate high but incomplete adherence to/completion of multidose COVID-19 vaccines during initial vaccine rollout in the United States. Multidose schedules may contribute to challenges associated with successful global vaccination.

Incidence and economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus among adults in the United States: A retrospective analysis using 2 insurance claims databases.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common, contagious, and seasonal pathogen causing 64 million acute respiratory infections annually in adults and children worldwide. High-risk adults, including older adults and those with cardiopulmonary conditions or weakened immune systems, are more likely to be infected. However, limited information exists on RSV incidence and associated costs among adults, including high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the annual incidence of medically attended, International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded RSV among commercially insured adults and assess health care costs among adults with ICD-coded RSV in the United States. METHODS: Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart Database (January 01, 2007, to June 30, 2020) and IBM's MarketScan Databases (January 01, 2000, to July 31, 2020) were used. Medically attended, ICD-coded RSV incidence among adults was assessed from July 1 of a given year to June 30 of the next year and reported per 100,000 population. Trends in all-cause mean weekly costs pre-RSV and post-RSV diagnosis were reported. Results were reported overall and among patients aged 60-64 years, 65 years or older, 85 years or older, and 18-59 years at high risk of severe RSV (defined as having cardiopulmonary conditions or a weakened immune system). RESULTS: Annual incidence of medically attended, ICD-coded RSV in adults overall was 22.0-52.9 in Optum and 23.4-63.6 in MarketScan. Incidence rates were higher among patients aged 60-64 years (Optum: 25.2-66.1; MarketScan: 31.9-82.1), 65 years or older (Optum: 37.3-75.5; MarketScan: 54.1-97.3), 85 years or older (Optum: 92.4-140.6; MarketScan: 79.4-234.7), and 18-59 years at high risk of severe RSV (Optum: 41.3-135.9; MarketScan: 46.3-112.4). Mean weekly costs increased during the week before (Optum: $2,325; MarketScan: $2,080) and post-RSV diagnosis (Optum: $9,523; MarketScan: $3,551), compared with those in weeks 2-8 pre-RSV diagnosis (Optum: $1,350; MarketScan: $872). The increases in mean weekly costs during the week before and the week following RSV diagnosis were higher among patients aged 60-64 years (mean weekly costs in weeks 2-8 pre-RSV, week 1 pre-RSV, week 1 post-RSV; Optum: $1,623, $2,690, $10,823; MarketScan: $1,259, $2,992, $5,069), 65 years or older (Optum: $1,731, $3,067, $12,866; MarketScan: $1,517, $3,571, $5,268), 85 years or older (Optum: $1,563, $2,430, $18,134; MarketScan: $1,613, $4,113, $6,231), and 18-59 years at high risk of severe RSV (only for MarketScan: $1,237, $3,294, $5,531; costs were similar for Optum). CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of medically attended, ICD-coded RSV in adults was 22.0-63.6 per 100,000 population, a likely underestimation since RSV was not systematically tested and only RSV-coded cases were observed. Incremental costs associated with RSV were substantial. Incidence rates and costs were higher among patients aged 60 years or older and patients at high risk of severe RSV. DISCLOSURES: This study was sponsored by Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC. The sponsor was involved in the study design, interpretation of results, manuscript preparation, and publication decisions. B. Brookhart and D. Anderson are employees of Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC, and are stockholders of Johnson & Johnson. C. Rossi, B. Emond, J. Wang, P. Lefebvre, and M.-H. Lafeuille are employees of Analysis Group, Inc., a consulting company that has provided paid consulting services to Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC, which funded the development and conduct of this study and manuscript. M. Mesa-Frias. and S. Drummond are former employees of Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC. L. Lamerato is an employee of Henry Ford Health System and received research funding from Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC.

The societal economic value of COVID-19 vaccines in the United States.

AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of more than 800,000 people in the United States (US) and has been estimated to carry a societal cost of $16 trillion over the next decade. The availability of COVID-19 vaccines has had a profound effect on the trajectory of the pandemic, with wide-ranging benefits. We aimed to estimate the total societal economic value generated in the US from COVID-19 vaccines. METHODS: We developed a population-based economic model informed by existing data and literature to estimate the total societal value generated from COVID-19 vaccines by avoiding COVID-19 infections as well as resuming social and economic activity more quickly. To do this, we separately estimated the value generated from life years saved, healthcare costs avoided, quality of life gained, and US gross domestic product (GDP) gained under a range of plausible assumptions. RESULTS: Findings from our base case analysis suggest that from their launch in December 2020, COVID-19 vaccines were projected to generate $5.0 trillion in societal economic value for the US from avoided COVID-19 infections and resuming unrestricted social and economic activity more quickly. Our scenario analyses suggest that the value could range between $1.8 and $9.9 trillion. Our model indicates that the most substantial sources of value are derived from reduction in prevalence of depression ($1.9 trillion), gains to US GDP ($1.4 trillion), and lives saved from fewer COVID-19 infections ($1.0 trillion). LIMITATIONS: Constructed as a projection from December 2020, our model does not account for the Delta or future variants, nor does it account for improvements in COVID-19 treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of economic benefit from vaccination highlights the need for coordinated policy decisions to support continued widespread vaccine uptake in the US.

Body mass index increase and weight gain among people living with HIV-1 initiated on single-tablet darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide or bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated body mass index (BMI) and weight changes in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1; PLWH) initiated on single-tablet darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (DRV/c/FTC/TAF) or bictegravir/FTC/TAF (BIC/FTC/TAF). METHODS: Electronic medical record (EMR) data for treatment-naïve or virologically suppressed adults with HIV-1 who initiated treatment with DRV/c/FTC/TAF or BIC/FTC/TAF (index date) were obtained from Decision Resources Group's EMRs (17 July 2017-1 March 2020). Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to account for differences in baseline characteristics between the two cohorts. BMI and weight changes from pre-index to 3, 6, 9 and 12 months following the index date were compared using weighted mean differences (MDs). The time until an increase in BMI or weight ≥5% or ≥10% was compared using weighted hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: The weighted DRV/c/FTC/TAF and BIC/FTC/TAF cohorts comprised 1116 and 1134 PLWH, respectively (mean age = ∼49 years, females: ∼28%). Larger increases in BMI and weight from pre-index to each post-index time point were observed in PLWH initiating BIC/FTC/TAF vs DRV/c/FTC/TAF (12 months: MD in BMI = 1.23 kg/m2, p < .001; MD in weight = 2.84 kg [6.26 lbs], p = .008). PLWH receiving BIC/FTC/TAF were significantly more likely to experience weight gain ≥5% (HR = 1.76, p = .004) and ≥10% (HR = 2.01, p = .020), and BMI increase ≥5% (HR = 1.77, p = .004) and ≥10% (HR = 1.76, p = .044) than those receiving DRV/c/FTC/TAF. CONCLUSIONS: BIC/FTC/TAF was associated with greater BMI and weight increases compared to DRV/c/FTC/TAF. Weight gain and its sequelae may add to the clinical burden of PLWH and should be considered among other factors when selecting antiretroviral single-tablet regimens.