Clinical outcomes of uninterrupted embryo culture with or without time-lapse-based embryo selection versus interrupted standard culture (SelecTIMO): a three-armed, multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Time-lapse monitoring is increasingly used in fertility laboratories to culture and select embryos for transfer. This method is offered to couples with the promise of improving pregnancy chances, even though there is currently insufficient evidence for superior clinical results. We aimed to evaluate whether a potential improvement by time-lapse monitoring is caused by the time-lapse-based embryo selection method itself or the uninterrupted culture environment that is part of the system. METHODS: In this three-armed, multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial, couples undergoing in-vitro fertilisation or intracytoplasmic sperm injection were recruited from 15 fertility clinics in the Netherlands and randomly assigned using a web-based, computerised randomisation service to one of three groups. Couples and physicians were masked to treatment group, but embryologists and laboratory technicians could not be. The time-lapse early embryo viability assessment (EEVA; TLE) group received embryo selection based on the EEVA time-lapse selection method and uninterrupted culture. The time-lapse routine (TLR) group received routine embryo selection and uninterrupted culture. The control group received routine embryo selection and interrupted culture. The co-primary endpoints were the cumulative ongoing pregnancy rate within 12 months in all women and the ongoing pregnancy rate after fresh single embryo transfer in a good prognosis population. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered on the ICTRP Search Portal, NTR5423, and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: 1731 couples were randomly assigned between June 15, 2017, and March 31, 2020 (577 to the TLE group, 579 to the TLR group, and 575 to the control group). The 12-month cumulative ongoing pregnancy rate did not differ significantly between the three groups: 50·8% (293 of 577) in the TLE group, 50·9% (295 of 579) in the TLR group, and 49·4% (284 of 575) in the control group (p=0·85). The ongoing pregnancy rates after fresh single embryo transfer in a good prognosis population were 38·2% (125 of 327) in the TLE group, 36·8% (119 of 323) in the TLR group, and 37·8% (123 of 325) in the control group (p=0·90). Ten serious adverse events were reported (five TLE, four TLR, and one in the control group), which were not related to study procedures. INTERPRETATION: Neither time-lapse-based embryo selection using the EEVA test nor uninterrupted culture conditions in a time-lapse incubator improved clinical outcomes compared with routine methods. Widespread application of time-lapse monitoring for fertility treatments with the promise of improved results should be questioned. FUNDING: Health Care Efficiency Research programme from Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development and Merck.

Clinical added value of MRI to CT in patients scheduled for local therapy of colorectal liver metastases (CAMINO): study protocol for an international multicentre prospective diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal computed tomography (CT) is the standard imaging method for patients with suspected colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) in the diagnostic workup for surgery or thermal ablation. Diffusion-weighted and gadoxetic-acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the liver is increasingly used to improve the detection rate and characterization of liver lesions. MRI is superior in detection and characterization of CRLM as compared to CT. However, it is unknown how MRI actually impacts patient management. The primary aim of the CAMINO study is to evaluate whether MRI has sufficient clinical added value to be routinely added to CT in the staging of CRLM. The secondary objective is to identify subgroups who benefit the most from additional MRI. METHODS: In this international multicentre prospective incremental diagnostic accuracy study, 298 patients with primary or recurrent CRLM scheduled for curative liver resection or thermal ablation based on CT staging will be enrolled from 17 centres across the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, and Italy. All study participants will undergo CT and diffusion-weighted and gadoxetic-acid enhanced MRI prior to local therapy. The local multidisciplinary team will provide two local therapy plans: first, based on CT-staging and second, based on both CT and MRI. The primary outcome measure is the proportion of clinically significant CRLM (CS-CRLM) detected by MRI not visible on CT. CS-CRLM are defined as liver lesions leading to a change in local therapeutical management. If MRI detects new CRLM in segments which would have been resected in the original operative plan, these are not considered CS-CRLM. It is hypothesized that MRI will lead to the detection of CS-CRLM in ≥10% of patients which is considered the minimal clinically important difference. Furthermore, a prediction model will be developed using multivariable logistic regression modelling to evaluate the predictive value of patient, tumor and procedural variables on finding CS-CRLM on MRI. DISCUSSION: The CAMINO study will clarify the clinical added value of MRI to CT in patients with CRLM scheduled for local therapy. This study will provide the evidence required for the implementation of additional MRI in the routine work-up of patients with primary and recurrent CRLM for local therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The CAMINO study was registered in the Netherlands National Trial Register under number NL8039 on September 20th 2019.

Planned Cesarean or planned vaginal delivery for twins: secondary analysis of randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether there is a differential benefit of planned Cesarean delivery (CD) over planned vaginal delivery (VD) in women with a twin pregnancy and the first twin in cephalic presentation, depending on prespecified baseline maternal and pregnancy characteristics, and/or gestational age (GA) at delivery. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the Twin Birth Study, which included 2804 women with a twin pregnancy and the first twin (Twin A) in cephalic presentation between 32 + 0 and 38 + 6 weeks' gestation at 106 centers in 25 countries. Women were assigned randomly to either planned CD or planned VD. The main outcome measure was composite adverse perinatal outcome, defined as the occurrence of perinatal mortality or serious neonatal morbidity in at least one twin. The baseline maternal and pregnancy characteristics (markers) considered were maternal age, parity, history of CD, use of antenatal corticosteroids, estimated fetal weight (EFW) of Twin A, EFW of Twin B, > 25% difference in EFW between the twins, presentation of Twin B, chorionicity on ultrasound, method of conception, complications of pregnancy, ruptured membranes at randomization and GA at randomization. Separate logistic regression models were developed for each marker in order to model composite adverse perinatal outcome as a function of the specific marker, planned delivery mode and the interaction between these two terms. In addition, multivariable logistic regression analysis with backward variable elimination was performed separately in each arm of the trial. The association between planned mode of delivery and composite adverse perinatal outcome, according to GA at delivery, was assessed using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the 2804 women initially randomized, 1391 were included in each study arm. None of the studied baseline markers was associated with a differential benefit of planned CD over planned VD in the rate of composite adverse perinatal outcome. GA at delivery was associated differentially with composite adverse perinatal outcome in the treatment arms (P for interaction < 0.001). Among pregnancies delivered at 32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks, there was a trend towards a lower rate of composite adverse perinatal outcome in those in the planned-VD group compared with those in planned-CD group (29 (2.2%) vs 48 (3.6%) cases; odds ratio (OR) 0.62 (95% CI, 0.37-1.03)). In pregnancies delivered at or after 37 + 0 weeks, planned VD was associated with a significantly higher rate of composite adverse perinatal outcome, as compared with planned CD (23 (1.5%) vs 10 (0.7%) cases; OR, 2.25 (95% CI, 1.06-4.77)). CONCLUSION: The perinatal outcome of twin pregnancies with the first twin in cephalic presentation may differ depending on GA at delivery and planned mode of delivery. At 32-37 weeks, planned VD seems to be favorable, while, from around 37 weeks onwards, planned CD might be safer. The absolute risks of adverse perinatal outcomes at term are low and must be weighed against the increased maternal risks associated with planned CD. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Natural conception rates in couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility scheduled for fertility treatment: a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the natural conception rate over the course of 12 months in couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility who are scheduled for fertility treatment and have a predicted unfavourable prognosis for natural conception? SUMMARY ANSWER: The natural conception rate over the course of 12 months in couples who were allocated to treatment was estimated to be 24.5% (95% CI: 20-29%). WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: After starting treatment, couples often perceive unsuccessful cycles as evidence of definitive failure even though they are still able to conceive naturally in between and after treatment. The magnitude of the natural conception rate for couples who chose to commence treatment is unknown, as is whether the calculated prognosis before commencing treatment is still applicable. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We performed a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial including couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility and an unfavourable prognosis for natural conception. Couples were allocated to either three cycles IVF with single embryo transfer (SET), six cycles of IVF in a modified natural cycle (MNC) or six cycles of IUI with controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (IUI-COH). The detailed data collection in this trial allowed us to study the conception rates in periods that couples were not receiving treatment. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGS, METHODS: We split the dataset into periods during which couples were treated and periods during which they were not treated. Couples could conceive naturally in the periods before, in between and after treatment cycles. The outcome was ongoing pregnancy, thus natural conception rate refers to natural conception leading to ongoing pregnancy. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with female age, duration of subfertility and a time-varying covariate with four categories: IVF-SET, IVF-MNC, IUI-COH and no treatment. We used this Cox model to estimate the natural conception rate over 12 months of no treatment. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Out of 602 included couples, there were 342 ongoing pregnancies, of which 77 (23%) resulted from natural conception. The estimated natural conception rate over 12 months was 24.5% (95% CI: 20-29%) on cohort level. Estimated rates for female age varying between 18 and 38 years and duration of subfertility between 1 and 3 years ranged from 22 to 35%. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We considered couples at risk for natural conception when not receiving treatment, whereas they might not have had periovulatory sexual intercourse. As couples were scheduled for treatment, it is possible that these couples were less inclined to try to conceive naturally, potentially leading to an underestimation of their natural conception rate if they kept trying to conceive. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Couples with unexplained subfertility who are about to start fertility treatment, still have about a one in four chance of ongoing pregnancy due to natural conception over 12 months. This information can add to the counselling of couples who commenced fertility treatment after failed cycles and to emphasize not to cease their natural attempts. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The INeS trial was supported by a grant from ZonMW, the Dutch Organization for Health Research and Development (120620027), and a grant from Zorgverzekeraars Nederland, the Dutch association of health care insurers (09-003). The funders had no role in study design, collection, analysis and interpretation of the data. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. No other potential conflicts of interest reported. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The INeS trial was registered at the Dutch trial registry (NTR 939).

Prognostic accuracy of cerebroplacental ratio and middle cerebral artery Doppler for adverse perinatal outcome: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Doppler ultrasonographic assessment of the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) and middle cerebral artery (MCA) is widely used as an adjunct to umbilical artery (UA) Doppler to identify fetuses at risk of adverse perinatal outcome. However, reported estimates of its accuracy vary considerably. The aim of this study was to review systematically the prognostic accuracies of CPR and MCA Doppler in predicting adverse perinatal outcome, and to compare these with UA Doppler, in order to identify whether CPR and MCA Doppler evaluation are of added value to UA Doppler. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched, from inception to June 2016, for studies on the prognostic accuracy of UA Doppler compared with CPR and/or MCA Doppler in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in women with a singleton pregnancy of any risk profile. Risk of bias and concerns about applicability were assessed using the QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2) tool. Meta-analysis was performed for multiple adverse perinatal outcomes. Using hierarchal summary receiver-operating characteristics meta-regression models, the prognostic accuracy of CPR vs MCA Doppler was compared indirectly, and CPR and MCA Doppler vs UA Doppler compared directly. RESULTS: The search identified 4693 articles, of which 128 studies (involving 47 748 women) were included. Risk of bias or suboptimal reporting was detected in 120/128 studies (94%) and substantial heterogeneity was found, which limited subgroup analyses for fetal growth and gestational age. A large variation was observed in reported sensitivities and specificities, and in thresholds used. CPR outperformed UA Doppler in the prediction of composite adverse outcome (as defined in the included studies) (P < 0.001) and emergency delivery for fetal distress (P = 0.003), but was comparable to UA Doppler for the other outcomes. MCA Doppler performed significantly worse than did UA Doppler in the prediction of low Apgar score (P = 0.017) and emergency delivery for fetal distress (P = 0.034). CPR outperformed MCA Doppler in the prediction of composite adverse outcome (P < 0.001) and emergency delivery for fetal distress (P = 0.013). CONCLUSION: Calculating the CPR with MCA Doppler can add value to UA Doppler assessment in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in women with a singleton pregnancy. However, it is unclear to which subgroup of pregnant women this applies. The effectiveness of the CPR in guiding clinical management needs to be evaluated in clinical trials. © 2017 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Cost-effectiveness of diagnostic testing strategies including cervical-length measurement and fibronectin testing in women with symptoms of preterm labor.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combining cervical-length (CL) measurement and fetal fibronectin (fFN) testing in women with symptoms of preterm labor between 24 and 34 weeks' gestation. METHODS: This was a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis evaluating seven test-treatment strategies based on CL measurement and/or fFN testing in women with symptoms of preterm labor from a societal perspective, in which neonatal outcomes and costs were weighted. Estimates of disease prevalence, test accuracy and costs were based on two recently performed nationwide cohort studies in The Netherlands. RESULTS: Strategies using fFN testing and CL measurement separately to predict preterm delivery are associated with higher costs and incidence of adverse neonatal outcomes compared with strategies that combine both tests. Additional fFN testing when CL is 15-30 mm was considered cost effective, leading to a cost saving of €3919 per woman when compared with a treat-all strategy, with a small deterioration in neonatal health outcomes, namely one additional perinatal death and 21 adverse outcomes per 10 000 women with signs of preterm labor (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios €39 million and €1.9 million, respectively). Implementing this strategy in The Netherlands, a country with about 180 000 deliveries annually, could lead to an annual cost saving of between €2.4 million and €7.6 million, with only a small deterioration in neonatal health outcomes. CONCLUSION: In women with symptoms of preterm labor at 24-34 weeks' gestation, performing additional fFN testing when CL is between 15 and 30 mm is a viable and cost-saving strategy. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A randomised comparison of two faecal immunochemical tests in population-based colorectal cancer screening.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer screening programmes are implemented worldwide; many are based on faecal immunochemical testing (FIT). The aim of this study was to evaluate two frequently used FITs on participation, usability, positivity rate and diagnostic yield in population-based FIT screening. DESIGN: Comparison of two FITs was performed in a fourth round population-based FIT-screening cohort. Randomly selected individuals aged 50-74 were invited for FIT screening and were randomly allocated to receive an OC -Sensor (Eiken, Japan) or faecal occult blood (FOB)-Gold (Sentinel, Italy) test (March-December 2014). A cut-off of 10 µg haemoglobin (Hb)/g faeces (ie, 50 ng Hb/mL buffer for OC-Sensor and 59 ng Hb for FOB-Gold) was used for both FITs. RESULTS: In total, 19 291 eligible invitees were included (median age 61, IQR 57-67; 48% males): 9669 invitees received OC-Sensor and 9622 FOB-Gold; both tests were returned by 63% of invitees (p=0.96). Tests were non-analysable in 0.7% of participants using OC-Sensor vs 2.0% using FOB-Gold (p<0.001). Positivity rate was 7.9% for OC-Sensor, and 6.5% for FOB-Gold (p=0.002). There was no significant difference in diagnostic yield of advanced neoplasia (1.4% for OC-Sensor vs 1.2% for FOB-Gold; p=0.15) or positive predictive value (PPV; 31% vs 32%; p=0.80). When comparing both tests at the same positivity rate instead of cut-off, they yielded similar PPV and detection rates. CONCLUSIONS: The OC-Sensor and FOB-Gold were equally acceptable to a screening population. However, FOB-Gold was prone to more non-analysable tests. Comparison between FIT brands is usually done at the same Hb stool concentration. Our findings imply that for a fair comparison on diagnostic yield between FIT's positivity rate rather than Hb concentration should be used. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR5385; Results.

IVF or IUI as first-line treatment in unexplained subfertility: the conundrum of treatment selection markers.

STUDY QUESTION: Are there treatment selection markers that could aid in identifying couples, with unexplained or mild male subfertility, who would have better chances of a healthy child with IVF with single embryo transfer (IVF-SET) than with IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS)? SUMMARY ANSWER: We did not find any treatment selection markers that were associated with better chances of a healthy child with IVF-SET instead of IUI-OS in couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: A recent trial, comparing IVF-SET to IUI-OS, found no evidence of a difference between live birth rates and multiple pregnancy rates. It was suggested that IUI-OS should remain the first-line treatment instead of IVF-SET in couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility and female age between 18 and 38 years. The question remains whether there are some couples that may have higher pregnancy chances if treated with IVF-SET instead of IUI. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We performed our analyses on data from the INeS trial, where couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility and an unfavourable prognosis for natural conception were randomly allocated to IVF-SET, IVF in a modified natural cycle or IUI-OS. In view of the aim of this study, we only used data of the comparison between IVF-SET (201 couples) and IUI-OS (207 couples). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We pre-defined the following baseline characteristics as potential treatment selection markers: female age, ethnicity, smoking status, type of subfertility (primary/secondary), duration of subfertility, BMI, pre-wash total motile count and Hunault prediction score. For each potential treatment selection marker, we explored the association with the chances of a healthy child after IVF-SET and IUI-OS and tested if there was an interaction with treatment. Given the exploratory nature of our analysis, we used a P-value of 0.1. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: None of the markers were associated with higher chances of a healthy child from IVF-SET compared to IUI-OS (P-value for interaction >0.10). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Since this is the first large study that looked at potential treatment selection markers for IVF-SET compared to IUI-OS, we had no data on which to base a power calculation. The sample size was limited, making it difficult to detect any smaller associations. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: We could not identify couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility who would have had higher chances of a healthy child from immediate IVF-SET than from IUI-OS. As in the original trial IUI-OS had similar effectiveness and was less costly compared to IVF-SET, IUI-OS should remain the preferred first-line treatment in these couples. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The study was supported by a grant from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, and a grant from the Netherlands' association of health care insurers. There are no conflicts of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The trial was registered at the Dutch trial registry (NTR939).

Prediction of disease-free survival using relative change in FDG-uptake early during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for potentially curable esophageal cancer: A prospective cohort study.

18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) has been investigated as a tool for monitoring response to neoadjuvant chemo- and chemoradiotherapy (CT and CRT, respectively) and as a predictor for survival in patients with esophageal cancer. In contrast to patients who undergo neoadjuvant CT, it is not known whether patients who are clinically identified as responders after neoadjuvant CRT show better disease-free survival (DFS) than patients identified as nonresponders. The aim of the study was to determine the predictive value of FDG-uptake measured prior to and early during neoadjuvant CRT. Patients treated with neoadjuvant CRT between 2004 and 2009 within a randomized trial were included. FDG-uptake was measured at baseline and after 14 days of CRT. According to the PERCIST-criteria, patients were allocated to have metabolic response, stable disease, or progression. Patients were followed until recurrence of disease or death. The predictive value of FDG-PET was determined with univariable and multivariable analysis in patients who underwent potentially curative surgery. One-hundred and six patients were included in the analysis. Minimal follow-up for surviving patients was 60 months. No significant differences in DFS were found between patients with metabolic response, stable disease, or progression, with 5-year DFS rates of 66%, 53%, and 67%, respectively (P = 0.39). Relative change in FDG uptake after 14 days of CRT is not associated with DFS in patients with esophageal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery. These measurements should not be used for prognostication in this specific group of patients.

MisoREST: surgical versus expectant management in women with an incomplete evacuation of the uterus after misoprostol treatment for miscarriage: a randomized controlled trial.

STUDY QUESTION: Is curettage more effective than expectant management in case of an incomplete evacuation after misoprostol treatment for first trimester miscarriage? SUMMARY ANSWER: Curettage leads to a higher chance of complete evacuation but expectant management is successful in at least 76% of women with an incomplete evacuation of the uterus after misoprostol treatment for first trimester miscarriage. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: In 5-50% of the women treated with misoprostol, there is a suspicion of incomplete evacuation of the uterus on sonography. Although these women generally have minor symptoms, such a finding often leads to additional curettage. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: From June 2012 until July 2014, we conducted a nationwide multicenter randomized controlled trial (RCT). Women who had had primary misoprostol treatment for miscarriage with sonographic evidence of incomplete evacuation of the uterus were randomly allocated to either curettage or expectant management (1:1), using a web-based application. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We included 59 women in 27 hospitals; 30 were allocated to curettage and 29 were allocated to expectant management. A successful outcome was defined as sonographic finding of an empty uterus 6 weeks after randomization. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Baseline characteristics of both groups were comparable. Empty uterus on sonography or uneventful clinical follow-up was seen in 29/30 women (97%) allocated to curettage compared with 22/29 women (76%) allocated to expectant management (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.03-1.6) with complication rates of 10% versus 10%, respectively (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.21-4.4). In the group allocated to curettage, no woman required re-curettage, while two women (6.7%) underwent hysteroscopy (for other or unknown reasons). In the women allocated to expectant management, curettage was performed in four women (13.8%) and three women (10.3%) underwent hysteroscopy. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Due to a strong patient preference, mainly for expectant management, the targeted sample size could not be included and the trial was stopped prematurely. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: In women suspected of incomplete evacuation of the uterus after misoprostol, curettage is more effective than expectant management. However, expectant management is equally safe and prevents curettage for most of the women. This finding could further restrain the use of curettage in the treatment of first trimester miscarriage. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This study was funded by ZonMw, a Dutch organization for Health Research and Development, project number 80-82310-97-12066. There were no conflicts of interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Dutch Trial Register NTR3310, http://www.trialregister.nl TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE: 27 February 2012. DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLMENT: 12 June 2012.

A multivariable model to guide the decision for pessary placement to prevent preterm birth in women with a multiple pregnancy: a secondary analysis of the ProTWIN trial.

OBJECTIVE: The ProTWIN Trial (NTR1858) showed that, in women with a multiple pregnancy and a cervical length < 25(th) percentile (38 mm), prophylactic use of a cervical pessary reduced the risk of adverse perinatal outcome. We investigated whether other maternal or pregnancy characteristics collected at baseline can improve identification of women most likely to benefit from pessary placement. METHODS: ProTWIN is a multicenter randomized trial in which 808 women with a multiple pregnancy were assigned to pessary or control. Using these data we developed a multivariable logistic model comprising treatment, cervical length, chorionicity, pregnancy history and number of fetuses, and the interaction of these variables with treatment as predictors of adverse perinatal outcome. RESULTS: Short cervix, monochorionicity and nulliparity were predictive factors for a benefit from pessary insertion. History of previous preterm birth and triplet pregnancy were predictive factors of possible harm from pessary. The model identified 35% of women as benefiting (95% CI, 32-39%), which is 10% more than using cervical length only (25%) for pessary decisions. The model had acceptable calibration. We estimated that using the model to guide the choice of pessary placement would reduce the risk of adverse perinatal outcome significantly from 13.5% when no pessary is inserted to 8.1% (absolute risk reduction, 5.4% (95% CI, 2.1-8.6%)). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated a multivariable treatment selection model, with cervical length, chorionicity, pregnancy history and number of fetuses. If externally validated, it could be used to identify women with a twin pregnancy who would benefit from a pessary, and lead to a reduction in adverse perinatal outcomes in these women. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Midpregnancy Cervical Length in Nulliparous Women and its Association with Postterm Delivery and Intrapartum Cesarean Delivery.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between midpregnancy cervical length and postterm delivery and cesarean delivery during labor. STUDY DESIGN: In a multicenter cohort study, cervical length was measured in low-risk singleton pregnancies between 16 and 22 weeks of gestation. From this cohort, we identified nulliparous women who delivered beyond 34 weeks and calculated cervical length quartiles. We performed logistic regression to compare the risk of postterm delivery and intrapartum cesarean delivery to cervical length quartiles, using the lowest quartile as a reference. We adjusted for induction of labor, maternal age, ethnicity, cephalic position, preexisting hypertension, and gestational age at delivery. RESULTS: We studied 5,321 nulliparous women. Women with cervical length in the 3rd and 4th quartile were more likely to deliver at 42(+0) to 42(+6) weeks (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-3.79 and aOR 1.97, 95% CI 1.06-3.67, respectively). The frequency of intrapartum cesarean delivery increased with cervical length quartile from 9.4% in the 1st to 14.9% in the 4th quartile (p = 0.01). This increase was only present in intrapartum cesarean delivery because of failure to progress and not because of fetal distress. CONCLUSION: The longer the cervix at midtrimester the higher the risk of both postterm delivery and intrapartum cesarean delivery.

Is IVF-served two different ways-more cost-effective than IUI with controlled ovarian hyperstimulation?

STUDY QUESTION: What is the cost-effectiveness of in vitro fertilization (IVF) with conventional ovarian stimulation, single embryo transfer (SET) and subsequent cryocycles or IVF in a modified natural cycle (MNC) compared with intrauterine insemination with controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (IUI-COH) as a first-line treatment in couples with unexplained subfertility and an unfavourable prognosis on natural conception?. SUMMARY ANSWER: Both IVF strategies are significantly more expensive when compared with IUI-COH, without being significantly more effective. In the comparison between IVF-MNC and IUI-COH, the latter is the dominant strategy. Whether IVF-SET is cost-effective depends on society's willingness to pay for an additional healthy child. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: IUI-COH and IVF, either after conventional ovarian stimulation or in a MNC, are used as first-line treatments for couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility. As IUI-COH is less invasive, this treatment is usually offered before proceeding to IVF. Yet, as conventional IVF with SET may lead to higher pregnancy rates in fewer cycles for a lower multiple pregnancy rate, some have argued to start with IVF instead of IUI-COH. In addition, IVF in the MNC is considered to be a more patient friendly and less costly form of IVF. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomized noninferiority trial. Between January 2009 and February 2012, 602 couples with unexplained infertility and a poor prognosis on natural conception were allocated to three cycles of IVF-SET including frozen embryo transfers, six cycles of IVF-MNC or six cycles of IUI-COH. These couples were followed until 12 months after randomization. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We collected data on resource use related to treatment, medication and pregnancy from the case report forms. We calculated unit costs from various sources. For each of the three strategies, we calculated the mean costs and effectiveness. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated for IVF-SET compared with IUI-COH and for IVF-MNC compared with IUI-COH. Nonparametric bootstrap resampling was used to investigate the effect of uncertainty in our estimates. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: There were 104 healthy children (52%) born in the IVF-SET group, 83 (43%) the IVF-MNC group and 97 (47%) in the IUI-COH group. The mean costs per couple were €7187 for IVF-SET, €8206 for IVF-MNC and €5070 for IUI-COH. Compared with IUI-COH, the costs for IVF-SET and IVF-MNC were significantly higher (mean differences €2117; 95% CI: €1544-€2657 and €3136, 95% CI: €2519-€3754, respectively).The ICER for IVF-SET compared with IUI-COH was €43 375 for the birth of an additional healthy child. In the comparison of IVF-MNC to IUI-COH, the latter was the dominant strategy, i.e. more effective at lower costs. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We only report on direct health care costs. The present analysis is limited to 12 months. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Since we found no evidence in support of offering IVF as a first-line strategy in couples with unexplained and mild subfertility, IUI-COH should remain the treatment of first choice. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: The study was supported by a grant from ZonMw, the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, (120620027) and a grant from Zorgverzekeraars Nederland, the Netherlands' association of health care insurers (09-003). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52843371; Nederlands Trial Register NTR939.

Comparison of Imaging Strategies with Conditional versus Immediate Contrast-Enhanced Computed Tomography in Patients with Clinical Suspicion of Acute Appendicitis.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the diagnostic accuracy of conditional computed tomography (CT), i.e. CT when initial ultrasound findings are negative or inconclusive, and immediate CT for patients with suspected appendicitis. METHODS: Data were collected within a prospective diagnostic accuracy study on imaging in adults with acute abdominal pain. All patients underwent ultrasound and CT, read by different observers who were blinded from the other modality. Only patients with clinical suspicion of appendicitis were included. An expert panel assigned a final diagnosis to each patient after 6 months of follow-up (clinical reference standard). RESULTS: A total of 422 patients were included with final diagnosis appendicitis in 251 (60 %). For 199 patients (47 %), ultrasound findings were inconclusive or negative. Conditional CT imaging correctly identified 241 of 251 (96 %) appendicitis cases (95 %CI, 92 % to 98 %), versus 238 (95 %) with immediate CT (95 %CI, 91 % to 97 %). The specificity of conditional CT imaging was lower: 77 % (95 %CI, 70 % to 83 %) versus 87 % for immediate CT (95 %CI, 81 % to 91 %). CONCLUSION: A conditional CT strategy correctly identifies as many patients with appendicitis as an immediate CT strategy, and can halve the number of CTs needed. However, conditional CT imaging results in more false positives. KEY POINTS: • Conditional CT (CT after negative/inconclusive ultrasound findings) can be used for suspected appendicitis. • Half the number of CT examinations is needed with a conditional strategy. • Conditional CT correctly identifies as many patients with appendicitis as immediate CT. • Conditional imaging results in more false positive appendicitis cases.

Accuracy of MRI compared with ultrasound imaging and selective use of CT to discriminate simple from perforated appendicitis.

BACKGROUND: Discrimination between simple and perforated appendicitis in patients with suspected appendicitis may help to determine the therapy, timing of surgery and risk of complications. The aim of this study was to estimate the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in distinguishing between simple and perforated appendicitis, and to compare MRI against ultrasound imaging with selected additional (conditional) use of computed tomography (CT). METHODS: Patients with clinically suspected appendicitis were identified prospectively at the emergency department of six hospitals. Consenting patients underwent MRI, but were managed based on findings at ultrasonography and conditional CT. Radiologists who evaluated the MRI were blinded to the results of ultrasound imaging and CT. The presence of perforated appendicitis was recorded after each evaluation. The final diagnosis was assigned by an expert panel based on perioperative data, histopathology and clinical follow-up after 3 months. RESULTS: MRI was performed in 223 of 230 included patients. Acute appendicitis was the final diagnosis in 118 of 230 patients, of whom 87 had simple and 31 perforated appendicitis. MRI correctly identified 17 of 30 patients with perforated appendicitis (sensitivity 57 (95 per cent confidence interval 39 to 73) per cent), whereas ultrasound imaging with conditional CT identified 15 of 31 (sensitivity 48 (32 to 65) per cent) (P = 0.517). All missed diagnoses of perforated appendicitis were identified as simple acute appendicitis with both imaging protocols. None of the MRI features for perforated appendicitis had a positive predictive value higher than 53 per cent. CONCLUSION: MRI is comparable to ultrasonography with conditional use of CT in identifying perforated appendicitis. However, both strategies incorrectly classify up to half of all patients with perforated appendicitis as having simple appendicitis. Triage of appendicitis based on imaging for conservative treatment is inaccurate and may be considered unsafe for decision-making. Presented to a scientific meeting of the Association of Surgeons of the Netherlands, Veldhoven, The Netherlands, May 2012; published in abstract form as Br J Surg 2012; 99(Suppl 7): S6.

A decision aid regarding treatment options for patients with an asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm: a randomised clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: Abdominal aortic aneurysm patients tend to be informed inconsistently and incompletely about their disorder and the treatment options open to them. The objective of this trial was to evaluate whether these patients are better informed and experience less decisional conflict regarding their treatment options after viewing a decision aid. DESIGN: A six-centre, randomised clinical trial comparing a decision aid plus regular information versus regular information from the surgeon. METHODS: Included patients had recently been diagnosed with an asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm at least 4 cm in diameter. The decision aid consisted of a one-time viewing of an interactive CD-ROM elaborating on elective surgery versus watchful waiting. Generally, the decision aid advised patients with aneurysms less than 5.5 cm to agree to watchful waiting, for larger aneurysms the decision aid provided insight into the balance of benefit and harm of surgical and conservative approaches, taking into account age, co-morbidity and size of the aneurysm. The primary outcome was patient decisional conflict measured at 1 month follow-up (Decisional Conflict Scale). Secondary outcomes were patient knowledge, anxiety and satisfaction. RESULTS: In 178 aneurysm patients, decisional conflict scores did not differ significantly between the decision aid and the regular information groups (22 vs. 24 on the 0-100 Decisional Conflict Scale; p = .33). Patients in the decision aid group had significantly better knowledge (10.0 vs. 9.4 out of 13 points; p = .04), whereas anxiety levels (4.4 and 5.0 on a 0-21 scale; p = .73) and satisfaction scores (74 and 73 on a 0-100 scale; p = .81) were similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: In addition to regular patient-surgeon communication, a decision aid helps to share treatment decisions with abdominal aortic aneurysm patients by increasing their knowledge about the disorder and available treatment options without raising anxiety levels; however, it does not reduce decisional conflict, nor does it improve satisfaction.

Using vaginal Group B Streptococcus colonisation in women with preterm premature rupture of membranes to guide the decision for immediate delivery: a secondary analysis of the PPROMEXIL trials.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether vaginal Group B Streptococcus (GBS) colonisation or other baseline characteristics of women with preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) can help in identifying subgroups of women who would benefit from immediate delivery. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the PPROMEXIL trials. SETTING: Sixty hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Women with PPROM between 34 and 37 weeks of gestation. METHODS: Random assignment of 723 women to immediate delivery or expectant management. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Early onset neonatal sepsis. RESULTS: Vaginal GBS colonisation status was the only marker which was significantly associated with the benefit of immediate delivery (P for interaction: 0.04). GBS colonisation was observed in 14% of women. The risk of early onset neonatal sepsis in GBS-positive women was high (15.2%) when they were managed expectantly but this risk was reduced to 1.8% with immediate delivery. The early onset neonatal sepsis risk was much lower in neonates of GBS-negative women: 2.6% after expectant management and 2.9% with immediate delivery. We estimated that by inducing labour only in GBS-positive women, there would be a 10.4% increase in term delivery rate, while keeping neonatal sepsis and caesarean delivery rates comparable to a strategy of labour induction for all. CONCLUSIONS: Our post hoc findings suggest that women with PROM between 34 and 37 weeks might benefit from immediate delivery if they have GBS vaginal colonisation, while in GBS-negative women labour induction could be delayed until 37 weeks.

Individual responsibility, solidarity and differentiation in healthcare.

OBJECTIVES: Access to healthcare in most western societies is based on equality. Rapidly rising costs have fuelled debates about differentiation in access to healthcare. We assessed the public's perceptions and attitudes about differentiation in healthcare according to lifestyle behaviour. METHODS: A vignette study was undertaken in participants in a colorectal cancer screening pilot programme in the Netherlands. Screenees with a negative test result received a questionnaire in which nine hypothetical situations were described: three different healthcare settings (screening, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) combined with three forms of differentiation each: a difference in premium, waiting list ordering or copayment according to lifestyle. We evaluated the responses using a general hierarchical linear model. RESULTS: The percentage of participants in agreement with differentiation varied from 20% to 58% (overall mean of 40%). Significantly more participants were in favour of giving a premium discount to those who do not engage in unhealthy behaviour compared with supporters for higher payments for those who do. More differentiation was supported for non-smoking versus smoking cessation than for participation versus non-participation in screening. We observed in-group favouritism in smokers, but no significant effects of age or disease. There was no support for waiting list ordering based on lifestyle. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study show that Dutch citizens eligible for colorectal cancer screening are in favour of some form of financial differentiation in the distribution of healthcare, but that significant differences exist between type of setting and the type of behaviour. Our study can be used in the ongoing discussion about solidarity and behaviour in healthcare.

Individualized decision-making in IVF: calculating the chances of pregnancy.

STUDY QUESTION: Are we able to develop a model to calculate the chances of pregnancy prior to the start of the first IVF cycle as well as after one or more failed cycles? SUMMARY ANSWER: Our prediction model enables the accurate individualized calculation of the probability of an ongoing pregnancy with IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: To improve counselling, patient selection and clinical decision-making in IVF, a number of prediction models have been developed. These models are of limited use as they were developed before current clinical and laboratory protocols were established. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This was a cohort study. The development set included 2621 cycles in 1326 couples who had been treated with IVF or ICSI between January 2001 and July 2009. The validation set included additional data from 515 cycles in 440 couples treated between August 2009 and April 2011. The outcome of interest was an ongoing pregnancy after transfer of fresh or frozen-thawed embryos from the same stimulated IVF cycle. If a couple became pregnant after an IVF/ICSI cycle, the follow-up was at a gestational age of at least 11 weeks. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Women treated with IVF or ICSI between January 2001 and April 2011 in a university hospital. IVF/ICSI cycles were excluded in the case of oocyte or embryo donation, surgically retrieved spermatozoa, patients positive for human immunodeficiency virus, modified natural IVF and cycles cancelled owing to poor ovarian stimulation, ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome or other unexpected medical or non-medical reasons. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Thirteen variables were included in the final prediction model. For all cycles, these were female age, duration of subfertility, previous ongoing pregnancy, male subfertility, diminished ovarian reserve, endometriosis, basal FSH and number of failed IVF cycles. After the first cycle: fertilization, number of embryos, mean morphological score per Day 3 embryo, presence of 8-cell embryos on Day 3 and presence of morulae on Day 3 were also included. In validation, the model had moderate discriminative capacity (c-statistic 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.73) but calibrated well, with a range from 0.01 to 0.56 in calculated probabilities. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: In our study, the outcome of interest was ongoing pregnancy. Live birth may have been a more appropriate outcome, although only 1-2% of all ongoing pregnancies result in late miscarriage or stillbirth. The model was based on data from a single centre. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The IVF model presented here is the first to calculate the chances of an ongoing pregnancy with IVF, both for the first cycle and after any number of failed cycles. The generalizability of the model to other clinics has to be evaluated more extensively in future studies (geographical validation). Centres with higher or lower success rates could use the model, after recalibration, by adjusting the intercept to reflect the IVF success rates in their centre. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This project was funded by the NutsOhra foundation (Grant 1004-179). The NutsOhra foundation had no role in the development of our study, in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in writing of the manuscript, and in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. There were no competing interests.

Can we distinguish between infertility and subfertility when predicting natural conception in couples with an unfulfilled child wish?

STUDY QUESTION: Can mixture survival models help distinguish infertility from subfertility in couples with an unexplained unfulfilled child wish? SUMMARY ANSWER: Mixture models estimated that 47% of the couples were infertile; female age and previous pregnancy were significantly related to infertility, whereas duration of child wish was associated with a longer time to pregnancy for subfertile couples. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: To differentiate between couples who require assisted conception and couples who still have good chances of natural, i.e. unassisted, conception, several prediction models of natural conception have been developed. Prognostic factors in these models are usually assessed by Cox proportional hazard models that cannot differentiate between couples with an unfulfilled child wish who are subfertile, i.e. have reduced ability to conceive naturally, and couples who are really infertile, i.e. are completely unable to conceive naturally. We evaluated whether a mixture survival model can make such a distinction. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Consecutive couples presenting at the fertility clinics of 38 centres in the Netherlands between January 2002 and February 2004 joined a prospective cohort study. Of the 7860 couples in the cohort, 3917 couples met our inclusion criteria. The median follow-up was 219 days, with a maximum of 5 years. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING, METHODS: Couples had to present with an unexplained cause of an unfulfilled child wish. A mixture model was used to estimate the proportion of couples who were infertile and the time to pregnancy for the subfertile couples. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: During the follow-up, 794 couples conceived naturally. The mixture model estimated that 47% [95% confidence interval (CI): 33-56%] of couples were infertile, despite the absence of objective factors indicating a cause for infertility. Of the evaluated prognostic factors, female age, duration of child wish, previous pregnancy, semen quality, BMI and cycle length, female age [odds ratio (OR): 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03-1.19] and previous pregnancy (0.22, 95% CI: 0.07-0.67) were significant predictors of infertility. Among subfertile couples, a longer duration of a child wish (FFR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.61-0.85) was a significant prognostic factor for time to pregnancy. In the Cox models, all variables except BMI were significant predictors of time to pregnancy. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The mixture model had limited power due to a low number of couples at the end of the follow-up period. Mixture model analyses on external, long-term follow-up data are necessary to validate our results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Mixture models could be a useful tool in selecting couples who require assisted reproductive technology because the effects of prognostic factors can be subdivided into effects on the fraction of infertile couples and effects on the time to pregnancy for subfertile couples, which is not possible in conventional models. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was supported by grant 945/12/002 from ZonMw, the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, the Netherlands.