Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil.

Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.

Transformative changes are needed to support socio-bioeconomies for people and ecosystems in the Amazon.

Current social-technical and political conditions threaten the integrity of the Amazon biome. Overcoming these lock-ins requires structural transformations away from conventional economies towards 'socio-bioeconomies' (SBEs). SBEs are economies based on the sustainable use and restoration of Amazonian ecosystems, as well as Indigenous and rural livelihood systems in the region. They include sustainable eco-tourism as well as diversified production and innovative processing of fruits, nuts, oils, medicines, fish and other products deriving from socio-biodiversity. Using a sustainability transitions perspective, we argue for multi-scalar policy changes to sustain, enhance and scale-out and scale-up SBE initiatives. To nurture niche SBE acitivities, we advocate for improvements in infrastructure, value chains and social organizations. To dismantle structural barriers, we call for an end to harmful subsidies, greater representation of marginalized communities in territorial planning, enhanced rural-urban and intersectoral linkages, international collaboration, shifts in demand, and changes in conservation and production narratives. Policies for SBEs must also use clear definitions, participatory processes and a multi-biome approach to avoid perverse outcomes.