Shifts in hatching date of American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in southern Florida.

Globally temperature of marine environments is on the rise and temperature plays an important role in the life-history of reptiles. In this study, we examined the relationship between sea surface temperature and average date of hatching for American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) over a 37-year period at two nesting sites, Everglades National Park and Florida Power and Light Turkey Point Power Plant site in southern Florida. Our results indicate that hatch dates are shifting 1.5 days earlier every two years and at half that rate for the Turkey Point site, and with every 1 °C degree increase in temperature, hatching occurs about 10 days earlier in the Everglades and 6 days earlier at Turkey Point. Our results on shifting hatch dates for American crocodiles provide further details about the impacts of temperature change on crocodile life history and suggest that increased temperature may affect their phenology.

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades.

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Ecological implications of allometric relationships in American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis).

Morphometric allometry, the effect of size on morphological variation, has been of great interest for evolutionary biologist and is currently used in fields such as wildlife ecology to inform management and conservation. We assessed American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) morphological static allometry across the Greater Everglades ecosystem in South Florida, United States using a robust dataset (~ 22 years) and investigated effects of sex, habitat, and sampling area on morphological relationships. Regression models showed very strong evidence of a linear relationship between variables explaining equal to or above 92% of the variation in the data. Most trait-size relationships (8 out of 11 assessed) showed hyperallometry (positive allometry) with slope deviations from isometry between 0.1 and 0.2 units while the other three relationships were isometric. Sampling area, type of habitat, and in a lesser extent sex influenced allometric coefficients (slope and intercept) across several relationships, likely as result of differing landscapes and ecosystem dynamic alterations and sexual dimorphism. We discuss our findings in terms of the biology of the species as well as the usefulness of our results in the context of ecosystem restoration and conservation of the species. Finally, we provide recommendations when using trait-length relationships to infer population nutritional-health condition and demographics.

Body condition as a descriptor of American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) health status in the Greater Everglades, Florida, United States.

Body condition is used as an indicator of the degree of body fat in an animal but evidence of its actual relationship with health diagnostics (e.g., blood parameters) is usually lacking across species. In American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), body condition has been used as a performance metric within the Greater Everglades ecosystem to provide insight on hydrological and landscape changes on alligator populations. However, there is no clear evidence that spatial body condition changes relate to different health conditions (low food intake vs sickness) and whether this link can be made when relating body condition values with blood parameters. We assessed the relationship between alligator body condition and 36 hematological and biochemistry (blood) parameters in four areas across two physiographic regions (Everglades and Big Cypress) of the Greater Everglades (sample size = 120). We found very strong to weak evidence of linearity between 7 (Big Cypress) and 19 (Everglades) blood parameters and relative condition factor index, from which cholesterol (38%) and uric acid (41%) for the former and phosphorus (up to 52%) and cholesterol (up to 45%) for the latter (mean absolute error MAE = 0.18 each) were the predictors that individually explain most of the body condition variation. The best combination of blood parameters for the Everglades were cholesterol, phosphorus, osmolality, total protein, albumin, alpha 2, beta, and gamma globulins, and corticosterone accounting for 40% (37 ± 21%, MAE = 0.16) of the variation found in alligator body condition for this region. We found better predictability power in models when analyzed at smaller rather than larger scales showing a potential habitat effect on the body condition-blood parameters relationship. Overall, Everglades alligators in poorer condition are likely dehydrated or have an inadequate diet and the spatial differences found between physiographic regions suggest that these areas differ in prey availability/quality.

Hematology and Biochemistry Reference Intervals for American Alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) in South Florida, USA.

We calculated reference intervals for 48 blood parameters from 120 wild American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in South Florida, US. Although previously reported by others, this study includes additional parameters not yet reported in wild populations. Most previously reported blood parameter values were similar to ours and fell within our reference intervals.

Hematology and biochemistry reference intervals for American crocodiles (Crocodylus acutus) in South Florida.

The American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) is considered a vulnerable species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List across its range and classified as locally threatened in several countries. There is a lack of knowledge involving hematological and physiological parameters in American crocodile populations, limiting our understanding of what are considered "normal" blood analyte results for the species and how to link them with health assessments. In this study, we analyzed 40 hematological and biochemical parameters and estimated reference intervals (RIs) for 35 of them based on 436 clinically healthy wild American crocodiles caught in South Florida between 2015 and 2021. Crocodiles were captured across three areas with different levels of human influence [low = Everglades National Park (ENP), medium = Biscayne Bay Estuary (BBE), and high = Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant (TP)]. There was very strong-to-strong evidence for an effect of where animals were caught on five analytes: basophils %, phosphorus, proportion of (pr) alpha-2 globulins, absolute count (abs) of gamma globulins, and corticosterone, so no reference values were estimated but general statistics are presented and discussed. From the remaining analytes, we found no evidence that sex or size class had an effect on red blood cell (RBC), azurophils and monocytes abs, triglycerides, and albumin abs. However, we did find moderate-to-strong evidence that sex influenced azurophils % and size class influenced white blood cell (WBC), heterophils %, monocytes %, basophils abs, creatine phosphokinase (CPK), potassium, glucose, bile acids, alpha-1 globulin abs, and alpha-2 globulin pr and abs. Finally, there was strong evidence that both sex and size class influenced PCV, lymphocytes % and abs, eosinophils % and abs, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), calcium, sodium, chloride, total protein, albumin/globulin (A/G) ratio, albumin pr, alpha-1 globulin, and beta globulin abs. Intraspecific analysis showed that size is the variable that most influenced analytes explaining up to 29% of the variation, which relates to our findings based on intraindividual analysis. We compared our results with blood parameters reported for conspecifics as well as closely related species and discussed implication of those results for clinical diagnosis and American crocodile conservation.

Presence of Breeding Birds Improves Body Condition for a Crocodilian Nest Protector.

Ecological associations where one species enhances habitat for another nearby species (facilitations) shape fundamental community dynamics and can promote niche expansion, thereby influencing how and where species persist and coexist. For the many breeding birds facing high nest-predation pressure, enemy-free space can be gained by nesting near more formidable animals for physical protection. While the benefits to protected species seem well documented, very few studies have explored whether and how protector species are affected by nest protection associations. Long-legged wading birds (Pelecaniformes and Ciconiiformes) actively choose nesting sites above resident American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), apparently to take advantage of the protection from mammalian nest predators that alligator presence offers. Previous research has shown that wading bird nesting colonies could provide substantial food for alligators in the form of dropped chicks. We compared alligator body condition in similar habitat with and without wading bird nesting colonies present. Alligator morphometric body condition indices were significantly higher in colony than in non-colony locations, an effect that was statistically independent of a range of environmental variables. Since colonially nesting birds and crocodilians co-occur in many tropical and subtropical wetlands, our results highlight a potentially widespread keystone process between two ecologically important species-groups. These findings suggest the interaction is highly beneficial for both groups of actors, and illustrate how selective pressures may have acted to form and reinforce a strongly positive ecological interaction.

Impacts of Citrus Development on Habitats of Southwest Florida.

Examining resource management needs at the landscape level has become critical for the conservation of ecosystems and the preservation of species. Geographic information systems (GIS) that allow for the integration of spatially referenced databases are a powerful tool that can be used by resource managers to examine potential impacts and develop strategies for regional planning. We applied a landscape-level approach to examine the potential impacts of citrus development on habitats and species in southwest Florida. We developed GIS models for panthers, Sandhill Cranes, and wading birds that reflect changes in potential habitats under a series of development scenarios. The models indicate that, under the maximum development scenario, 63% of potential panther habitat, 66% of potential Sandhill Crane habitat, and 67% and 33% of potential wading bird nesting and foraging habitats could be lost. In addition, the habitat that would remain would be severely fragmented. Several key areas were identified that will be critical to the continued existence of these species and to maintenance of regional biodiversity. The areas identified are habitats not represented on the existing public lands concentrated in the southern portion of the study area and/or that provide connections among existing natural areas. Impacto del desarrollo de cítricos en hábitats del suroeste de Florida.

Resumen: El exámen de las necesidades de manejo de los recursos a nivel del paisajese ha transformado en un elementeo crítico para la conservación de los ecosistemas y la preservación de las especies. Los Sistemas de Información Geográficos (SIG), que permiten la integración de las base de datos registrados espacialmente, constituyer una poderosa herramienta que puede ser utilizada por los administradores de recursos naturales para examinar los impactos potenciales y desarrollar estrategias de planificación a nivel regional. Aplicamos un enfoque a nivel de paisaje para examinar los impactos potenciales del desarrollo de los cítricos en especies y ambientes del sudoeste de la Florida. Desarrollamos modelos en SIG para panteras, grullas y aves zancudas que reflejan cambios en los hábitats potenciales bajo una serie de escenarios de desarrollo. Los modelos indican que bajo un escenario de máximo desarrollo 63% del hábitat potencial de la pantera, 66% del hábital potencial de la grulla y 67 y 33% del hábitat potencial para anidamiento y forestación de las aves zancudas se podrían perder. En forma adicional, el hábitat que quedara estaría severamente fragmentado. Se identificaron varias áreas claves que van a ser críticas para la supervivencia de estas especies y el mantenimiento de la biodiversidad a nivel regional. Las áreas identificadas, constituyen hábitats que no estan representados dentro de las tierras públicas existentes, y que se encuentran concentradas en la porción sur del área de estudio y/o proveen conecciones entre áreas naturales existentes.

Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 ) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

Threatened and endangered subspecies with vulnerable ecological traits also have high susceptibility to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation.

The presence of multiple interacting threats to biodiversity and the increasing rate of species extinction make it critical to prioritize management efforts on species and communities that maximize conservation success. We implemented a multi-step approach that coupled vulnerability assessments evaluating threats to Florida taxa such as climate change, sea-level rise, and habitat fragmentation with in-depth literature surveys of taxon-specific ecological traits. The vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and ecological traits of 12 threatened and endangered subspecies were compared to non-listed subspecies of the same parent species. Overall, the threatened and endangered subspecies showed high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, in particular to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation. They also exhibited larger home ranges and greater dispersal limitation compared to non-endangered subspecies, which may inhibit their ability to track changing climate in fragmented landscapes. There was evidence for lower reproductive capacity in some of the threatened or endangered taxa, but not for most. Taxa located in the Florida Keys or in other low coastal areas were most vulnerable to sea level rise, and also showed low levels of adaptive capacity, indicating they may have a lower probability of conservation success. Our analysis of at-risk subspecies and closely related non-endangered subspecies demonstrates that ecological traits help to explain observed differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This study points to the importance of assessing the relative contributions of multiple threats and evaluating conservation value at the species (or subspecies) level when resources are limited and several factors affect conservation success.