Toward a metabolic theory of life history.

The life histories of animals reflect the allocation of metabolic energy to traits that determine fitness and the pace of living. Here, we extend metabolic theories to address how demography and mass-energy balance constrain allocation of biomass to survival, growth, and reproduction over a life cycle of one generation. We first present data for diverse kinds of animals showing empirical patterns of variation in life-history traits. These patterns are predicted by theory that highlights the effects of 2 fundamental biophysical constraints: demography on number and mortality of offspring; and mass-energy balance on allocation of energy to growth and reproduction. These constraints impose 2 fundamental trade-offs on allocation of assimilated biomass energy to production: between number and size of offspring, and between parental investment and offspring growth. Evolution has generated enormous diversity of body sizes, morphologies, physiologies, ecologies, and life histories across the millions of animal, plant, and microbe species, yet simple rules specified by general equations highlight the underlying unity of life.

Universal rules of life: metabolic rates, biological times and the equal fitness paradigm.

Here we review and extend the equal fitness paradigm (EFP) as an important step in developing and testing a synthetic theory of ecology and evolution based on energy and metabolism. The EFP states that all organisms are equally fit at steady state, because they allocate the same quantity of energy, ~ 22.4 kJ/g/generation to the production of offspring. On the one hand, the EFP may seem tautological, because equal fitness is necessary for the origin and persistence of biodiversity. On the other hand, the EFP reflects universal laws of life: how biological metabolism - the uptake, transformation and allocation of energy - links ecological and evolutionary patterns and processes across levels of organisation from: (1) structure and function of individual organisms, (2) life history and dynamics of populations, and (3) interactions and coevolution of species in ecosystems. The physics and biology of metabolism have facilitated the evolution of millions of species with idiosyncratic anatomy, physiology, behaviour and ecology but also with many shared traits and tradeoffs that reflect the single origin and universal rules of life.

BioTIME: A database of biodiversity time series for the Anthropocene.

MOTIVATION: The BioTIME database contains raw data on species identities and abundances in ecological assemblages through time. These data enable users to calculate temporal trends in biodiversity within and amongst assemblages using a broad range of metrics. BioTIME is being developed as a community-led open-source database of biodiversity time series. Our goal is to accelerate and facilitate quantitative analysis of temporal patterns of biodiversity in the Anthropocene. MAIN TYPES OF VARIABLES INCLUDED: The database contains 8,777,413 species abundance records, from assemblages consistently sampled for a minimum of 2 years, which need not necessarily be consecutive. In addition, the database contains metadata relating to sampling methodology and contextual information about each record. SPATIAL LOCATION AND GRAIN: BioTIME is a global database of 547,161 unique sampling locations spanning the marine, freshwater and terrestrial realms. Grain size varies across datasets from 0.0000000158 km2 (158 cm2) to 100 km2 (1,000,000,000,000 cm2). TIME PERIOD AND GRAIN: BioTIME records span from 1874 to 2016. The minimal temporal grain across all datasets in BioTIME is a year. MAJOR TAXA AND LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT: BioTIME includes data from 44,440 species across the plant and animal kingdoms, ranging from plants, plankton and terrestrial invertebrates to small and large vertebrates. SOFTWARE FORMAT: .csv and .SQL.

Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere.

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale 'tipping point' highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

Human domination of the biosphere: Rapid discharge of the earth-space battery foretells the future of humankind.

Earth is a chemical battery where, over evolutionary time with a trickle-charge of photosynthesis using solar energy, billions of tons of living biomass were stored in forests and other ecosystems and in vast reserves of fossil fuels. In just the last few hundred years, humans extracted exploitable energy from these living and fossilized biomass fuels to build the modern industrial-technological-informational economy, to grow our population to more than 7 billion, and to transform the biogeochemical cycles and biodiversity of the earth. This rapid discharge of the earth's store of organic energy fuels the human domination of the biosphere, including conversion of natural habitats to agricultural fields and the resulting loss of native species, emission of carbon dioxide and the resulting climate and sea level change, and use of supplemental nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar energy sources. The laws of thermodynamics governing the trickle-charge and rapid discharge of the earth's battery are universal and absolute; the earth is only temporarily poised a quantifiable distance from the thermodynamic equilibrium of outer space. Although this distance from equilibrium is comprised of all energy types, most critical for humans is the store of living biomass. With the rapid depletion of this chemical energy, the earth is shifting back toward the inhospitable equilibrium of outer space with fundamental ramifications for the biosphere and humanity. Because there is no substitute or replacement energy for living biomass, the remaining distance from equilibrium that will be required to support human life is unknown.

Metabolic heat production and thermal conductance are mass-independent adaptations to thermal environment in birds and mammals.

The extent to which different kinds of organisms have adapted to environmental temperature regimes is central to understanding how they respond to climate change. The Scholander-Irving (S-I) model of heat transfer lays the foundation for explaining how endothermic birds and mammals maintain their high, relatively constant body temperatures in the face of wide variation in environmental temperature. The S-I model shows how body temperature is regulated by balancing the rates of heat production and heat loss. Both rates scale with body size, suggesting that larger animals should be better adapted to cold environments than smaller animals, and vice versa. However, the global distributions of ∼9,000 species of terrestrial birds and mammals show that the entire range of body sizes occurs in nearly all climatic regimes. Using physiological and environmental temperature data for 211 bird and 178 mammal species, we test for mass-independent adaptive changes in two key parameters of the S-I model: basal metabolic rate (BMR) and thermal conductance. We derive an axis of thermal adaptation that is independent of body size, extends the S-I model, and highlights interactions among physiological and morphological traits that allow endotherms to persist in a wide range of temperatures. Our macrophysiological and macroecological analyses support our predictions that shifts in BMR and thermal conductance confer important adaptations to environmental temperature in both birds and mammals.

Fundamental insights into ontogenetic growth from theory and fish.

The fundamental features of growth may be universal, because growth trajectories of most animals are very similar, but a unified mechanistic theory of growth remains elusive. Still needed is a synthetic explanation for how and why growth rates vary as body size changes, both within individuals over their ontogeny and between populations and species over their evolution. Here, we use Bertalanffy growth equations to characterize growth of ray-finned fishes in terms of two parameters, the growth rate coefficient, K, and final body mass, m∞. We derive two alternative empirically testable hypotheses and test them by analyzing data from FishBase. Across 576 species, which vary in size at maturity by almost nine orders of magnitude, K scaled as [Formula: see text]. This supports our first hypothesis that growth rate scales as [Formula: see text] as predicted by metabolic scaling theory; it implies that species that grow to larger mature sizes grow faster as juveniles. Within fish species, however, K scaled as [Formula: see text]. This supports our second hypothesis, which predicts that growth rate scales as [Formula: see text] when all juveniles grow at the same rate. The unexpected disparity between across- and within-species scaling challenges existing theoretical interpretations. We suggest that the similar ontogenetic programs of closely related populations constrain growth to [Formula: see text] scaling, but as species diverge over evolutionary time they evolve the near-optimal [Formula: see text] scaling predicted by metabolic scaling theory. Our findings have important practical implications because fish supply essential protein in human diets, and sustainable yields from wild harvests and aquaculture depend on growth rates.

Metabolic theory predicts whole-ecosystem properties.

Understanding the effects of individual organisms on material cycles and energy fluxes within ecosystems is central to predicting the impacts of human-caused changes on climate, land use, and biodiversity. Here we present a theory that integrates metabolic (organism-based bottom-up) and systems (ecosystem-based top-down) approaches to characterize how the metabolism of individuals affects the flows and stores of materials and energy in ecosystems. The theory predicts how the average residence time of carbon molecules, total system throughflow (TST), and amount of recycling vary with the body size and temperature of the organisms and with trophic organization. We evaluate the theory by comparing theoretical predictions with outputs of numerical models designed to simulate diverse ecosystem types and with empirical data for real ecosystems. Although residence times within different ecosystems vary by orders of magnitude-from weeks in warm pelagic oceans with minute phytoplankton producers to centuries in cold forests with large tree producers-as predicted, all ecosystems fall along a single line: residence time increases linearly with slope = 1.0 with the ratio of whole-ecosystem biomass to primary productivity (B/P). TST was affected predominantly by primary productivity and recycling by the transfer of energy from microbial decomposers to animal consumers. The theory provides a robust basis for estimating the flux and storage of energy, carbon, and other materials in terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems and for quantifying the roles of different kinds of organisms and environments at scales from local ecosystems to the biosphere.

Who is and isn't having babies with Down syndrome in western Sydney: a ten year hospital cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Screening for Down syndrome (DS) is a key component of antenatal care, recommended to be universally offered to women irrespective of age or background. Despite this, the diagnosis of DS is often not made until the neonatal period. AIMS: To retrospectively describe and compare the differences in populations with an antenatal diagnosis (AD) and neonatal diagnosis (ND) of DS and to explore why an antenatal diagnosis was not made. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The cohorts were women cared for at Westmead Hospital whose pregnancy received a diagnosis of DS between 2006 and 2015. The demographic variables of the AD and ND cohorts were examined and reasons why an antenatal diagnosis was not made in the ND cohort were analysed. RESULTS: There were 127 diagnoses of DS in the 10-year period, of which 41% were in the ND cohort (n = 52) and 59% in the AD (n = 75). Declaring a religious affiliation rather than Nil Religion was significantly more common in the ND cohort (88.5%) and especially the ND sub-cohort who declined DS screening/testing (95.8%) than the AD cohort (72%, P < 0.05). Women who were not offered screening were significantly younger (P < 0.001) than those who were, with 69% and 20% being ≤30 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of DS pregnancies diagnosed in the antenatal period in western Sydney could be increased by ensuring younger women are not falsely reassured that DS screening is unnecessary for them. While religious affiliation may be a factor when women decline screening, ensuring appropriate counselling remains important.

The macroecology of infectious diseases: a new perspective on global-scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts.

Identifying drivers of infectious disease patterns and impacts at the broadest scales of organisation is one of the most crucial challenges for modern science, yet answers to many fundamental questions remain elusive. These include what factors commonly facilitate transmission of pathogens to novel host species, what drives variation in immune investment among host species, and more generally what drives global patterns of parasite diversity and distribution? Here we consider how the perspectives and tools of macroecology, a field that investigates patterns and processes at broad spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales, are expanding scientific understanding of global infectious disease ecology. In particular, emerging approaches are providing new insights about scaling properties across all living taxa, and new strategies for mapping pathogen biodiversity and infection risk. Ultimately, macroecology is establishing a framework to more accurately predict global patterns of infectious disease distribution and emergence.

Biogeographic patterns of soil diazotrophic communities across six forests in North America.

Soil diazotrophs play important roles in ecosystem functioning by converting atmospheric N2 into biologically available ammonium. However, the diversity and distribution of soil diazotrophic communities in different forests and whether they follow biogeographic patterns similar to macroorganisms still remain unclear. By sequencing nifH gene amplicons, we surveyed the diversity, structure and biogeographic patterns of soil diazotrophic communities across six North American forests (126 nested samples). Our results showed that each forest harboured markedly different soil diazotrophic communities and that these communities followed traditional biogeographic patterns similar to plant and animal communities, including the taxa-area relationship (TAR) and latitudinal diversity gradient. Significantly higher community diversity and lower microbial spatial turnover rates (i.e. z-values) were found for rainforests (~0.06) than temperate forests (~0.1). The gradient pattern of TARs and community diversity was strongly correlated (r(2)  > 0.5) with latitude, annual mean temperature, plant species richness and precipitation, and weakly correlated (r(2)  < 0.25) with pH and soil moisture. This study suggests that even microbial subcommunities (e.g. soil diazotrophs) follow general biogeographic patterns (e.g. TAR, latitudinal diversity gradient), and indicates that the metabolic theory of ecology and habitat heterogeneity may be the major underlying ecological mechanisms shaping the biogeographic patterns of soil diazotrophic communities.

Long-term monitoring and experimental manipulation of a Chihuahuan desert ecosystem near Portal, Arizona (1977-2013).

Desert ecosystems have long served as model systems in the study of ecological concepts (e.g., competition, resource pulses, top-down/bottom-up dynamics). However, the inherent variability of resource availability in deserts, and hence consumer dynamics, can also make them challenging ecosystems to understand. Study of a Chihuahuan desert ecosystem near Portal, Arizona began in 1977. At this site, 24 experimental plots were established and divided among controls and experimental manipulations. Experimental manipulations over the years include removal of all or some rodent species, all or some ants, seed additions, and various alterations of the annual plant community. This dataset includes data previously available through an older data publication and adds 11 years of data. It also includes additional ant and weather data not previously available. These data have been used in a variety of publications documenting the effects of the experimental manipulations as well as the response of populations and communities to long-term changes in climate and habitat. Sampling is ongoing and additional data will be published in the future.

The macroecology of sustainability.

The discipline of sustainability science has emerged in response to concerns of natural and social scientists, policymakers, and lay people about whether the Earth can continue to support human population growth and economic prosperity. Yet, sustainability science has developed largely independently from and with little reference to key ecological principles that govern life on Earth. A macroecological perspective highlights three principles that should be integral to sustainability science: 1) physical conservation laws govern the flows of energy and materials between human systems and the environment, 2) smaller systems are connected by these flows to larger systems in which they are embedded, and 3) global constraints ultimately limit flows at smaller scales. Over the past few decades, decreasing per capita rates of consumption of petroleum, phosphate, agricultural land, fresh water, fish, and wood indicate that the growing human population has surpassed the capacity of the Earth to supply enough of these essential resources to sustain even the current population and level of socioeconomic development.

Energetics, lifestyle, and reproduction in birds.

Theoretical and empirical studies of life history aim to account for resource allocation to the different components of fitness: survival, growth, and reproduction. The pioneering evolutionary ecologist David Lack [(1968) Ecological Adaptations for Breeding in Birds (Methuen and Co., London)] suggested that reproductive output in birds reflects adaptation to environmental factors such as availability of food and risk of predation, but subsequent studies have not always supported Lack's interpretation. Here using a dataset for 980 bird species (Dataset S1), a phylogeny, and an explicit measure of reproductive productivity, we test predictions for how mass-specific productivity varies with body size, phylogeny, and lifestyle traits. We find that productivity varies negatively with body size and energetic demands of parental care and positively with extrinsic mortality. Specifically: (i) altricial species are 50% less productive than precocial species; (ii) species with female-only care of offspring are about 20% less productive than species with other methods of parental care; (iii) nonmigrants are 14% less productive than migrants; (iv) frugivores and nectarivores are about 20% less productive than those eating other foods; and (v) pelagic foragers are 40% less productive than those feeding in other habitats. A strong signal of phylogeny suggests that syndromes of similar life-history traits tend to be conservative within clades but also to have evolved independently in different clades. Our results generally support both Lack's pioneering studies and subsequent research on avian life history.

Models and tests of optimal density and maximal yield for crop plants.

We introduce a theoretical framework that predicts the optimum planting density and maximal yield for an annual crop plant. Two critical parameters determine the trajectory of plant growth and the optimal density, N(opt), where canopies of growing plants just come into contact, and competition: (i) maximal size at maturity, M(max), which differs among varieties due to artificial selection for different usable products; and (ii) intrinsic growth rate, g, which may vary with variety and environmental conditions. The model predicts (i) when planting density is less than N(opt), all plants of a crop mature at the same maximal size, M(max), and biomass yield per area increases linearly with density; and (ii) when planting density is greater than N(opt), size at maturity and yield decrease with -4/3 and -1/3 powers of density, respectively. Field data from China show that most annual crops, regardless of variety and life form, exhibit similar scaling relations, with maximal size at maturity, M(max), accounting for most of the variation in optimal density, maximal yield, and energy use per area. Crops provide elegantly simple empirical model systems to study basic processes that determine the performance of plants in agricultural and less managed ecosystems.

Drivers and hotspots of extinction risk in marine mammals.

The world's oceans are undergoing profound changes as a result of human activities. However, the consequences of escalating human impacts on marine mammal biodiversity remain poorly understood. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) identifies 25% of marine mammals as at risk of extinction, but the conservation status of nearly 40% of marine mammals remains unknown due to insufficient data. Predictive models of extinction risk are crucial to informing present and future conservation needs, yet such models have not been developed for marine mammals. In this paper, we: (i) used powerful machine-learning and spatial-modeling approaches to understand the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of marine mammal extinction risk; (ii) used this information to predict risk across all marine mammals, including IUCN "Data Deficient" species; and (iii) conducted a spatially explicit assessment of these results to understand how risk is distributed across the world's oceans. Rate of offspring production was the most important predictor of risk. Additional predictors included taxonomic group, small geographic range area, and small social group size. Although the interaction of both intrinsic and extrinsic variables was important in predicting risk, overall, intrinsic traits were more important than extrinsic variables. In addition to the 32 species already on the IUCN Red List, our model identified 15 more species, suggesting that 37% of all marine mammals are at risk of extinction. Most at-risk species occur in coastal areas and in productive regions of the high seas. We identify 13 global hotspots of risk and show how they overlap with human impacts and Marine Protected Areas.

Insights into plant size-density relationships from models and agricultural crops.

There is general agreement that competition for resources results in a tradeoff between plant mass, M, and density, but the mathematical form of the resulting thinning relationship and the mechanisms that generate it are debated. Here, we evaluate two complementary models, one based on the space-filling properties of canopy geometry and the other on the metabolic basis of resource use. For densely packed stands, both models predict that density scales as M(-3/4), energy use as M(0), and total biomass as M(1/4). Compilation and analysis of data from 183 populations of herbaceous crop species, 473 stands of managed tree plantations, and 13 populations of bamboo gave four major results: (i) At low initial planting densities, crops grew at similar rates, did not come into contact, and attained similar mature sizes; (ii) at higher initial densities, crops grew until neighboring plants came into contact, growth ceased as a result of competition for limited resources, and a tradeoff between density and size resulted in critical density scaling as M(-0.78), total resource use as M(-0.02), and total biomass as M(0.22); (iii) these scaling exponents are very close to the predicted values of M(-3/4), M(0), and M(1/4), respectively, and significantly different from the exponents suggested by some earlier studies; and (iv) our data extend previously documented scaling relationships for trees in natural forests to small herbaceous annual crops. These results provide a quantitative, predictive framework with important implications for the basic and applied plant sciences.

The maximum rate of mammal evolution.

How fast can a mammal evolve from the size of a mouse to the size of an elephant? Achieving such a large transformation calls for major biological reorganization. Thus, the speed at which this occurs has important implications for extensive faunal changes, including adaptive radiations and recovery from mass extinctions. To quantify the pace of large-scale evolution we developed a metric, clade maximum rate, which represents the maximum evolutionary rate of a trait within a clade. We applied this metric to body mass evolution in mammals over the last 70 million years, during which multiple large evolutionary transitions occurred in oceans and on continents and islands. Our computations suggest that it took a minimum of 1.6, 5.1, and 10 million generations for terrestrial mammal mass to increase 100-, and 1,000-, and 5,000-fold, respectively. Values for whales were down to half the length (i.e., 1.1, 3, and 5 million generations), perhaps due to the reduced mechanical constraints of living in an aquatic environment. When differences in generation time are considered, we find an exponential increase in maximum mammal body mass during the 35 million years following the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) extinction event. Our results also indicate a basic asymmetry in macroevolution: very large decreases (such as extreme insular dwarfism) can happen at more than 10 times the rate of increases. Our findings allow more rigorous comparisons of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary patterns and processes.

Why marine islands are farther apart in the tropics.

Species diversity of benthic marine organisms is highest in tropical archipelagoes. I hypothesize this is in large part a consequence of the temperature dependence of development times and dispersal distances of planktonic larvae. Metabolic theory predicts and empirical studies confirm that marine larvae develop faster and consequently have shorter durations in the plankton at higher temperatures. Metabolic theory can be extended to predict that species diversity of benthic marine organisms is highest in tropical archipelagoes, because warm temperatures limit dispersal and gene flow and isolated islands provide favorable conditions for speciation and coexistence.

How body mass and lifestyle affect juvenile biomass production in placental mammals.

In mammals, the mass-specific rate of biomass production during gestation and lactation, here called maternal productivity, has been shown to vary with body size and lifestyle. Metabolic theory predicts that post-weaning growth of offspring, here termed juvenile productivity, should be higher than maternal productivity, and juveniles of smaller species should be more productive than those of larger species. Furthermore because juveniles generally have similar lifestyles to their mothers, across species juvenile and maternal productivities should be correlated. We evaluated these predictions with data from 270 species of placental mammals in 14 taxonomic/lifestyle groups. All three predictions were supported. Lagomorphs, perissodactyls and artiodactyls were very productive both as juveniles and as mothers as expected from the abundance and reliability of their foods. Primates and bats were unproductive as juveniles and as mothers, as expected as an indirect consequence of their low predation risk and consequent low mortality. Our results point the way to a mechanistic explanation for the suite of correlated life-history traits that has been called the slow-fast continuum.