A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem.

Assessing fire impacts on the carbon stability of fire-tolerant forests.

The carbon stability of fire-tolerant forests is often assumed but less frequently assessed, limiting the potential to anticipate threats to forest carbon posed by predicted increases in forest fire activity. Assessing the carbon stability of fire-tolerant forests requires multi-indicator approaches that recognize the myriad ways that fires influence the carbon balance, including combustion, deposition of pyrogenic material, and tree death, post-fire decomposition, recruitment, and growth. Five years after a large-scale wildfire in southeastern Australia, we assessed the impacts of low- and high-severity wildfire, with and without prescribed fire (≤10 yr before), on carbon stocks in multiple pools, and on carbon stability indicators (carbon stock percentages in live trees and in small trees, and carbon stocks in char and fuels) in fire-tolerant eucalypt forests. Relative to unburned forest, high-severity wildfire decreased short-term (five-year) carbon stability by significantly decreasing live tree carbon stocks and percentage stocks in live standing trees (reflecting elevated tree mortality), by increasing the percentage of live tree carbon in small trees (those vulnerable to the next fire), and by potentially increasing the probability of another fire through increased elevated fine fuel loads. In contrast, low-severity wildfire enhanced carbon stability by having negligible effects on aboveground stocks and indicators, and by significantly increasing carbon stocks in char and, in particular, soils, indicating pyrogenic carbon accumulation. Overall, recent preceding prescribed fire did not markedly influence wildfire effects on short-term carbon stability at stand scales. Despite wide confidence intervals around mean stock differences, indicating uncertainty about the magnitude of fire effects in these natural forests, our assessment highlights the need for active management of carbon assets in fire-tolerant eucalypt forests under contemporary fire regimes. Decreased live tree carbon and increased reliance on younger cohorts for carbon recovery after high-severity wildfire could increase vulnerabilities to imminent fires, leading to decisions about interventions to maintain the productivity of some stands. Our multi-indicator assessment also highlights the importance of considering all carbon pools, particularly pyrogenic reservoirs like soils, when evaluating the potential for prescribed fire regimes to mitigate the carbon costs of wildfires in fire-prone landscapes.

Do multiple fires interact to affect vegetation structure in temperate eucalypt forests?

Fire plays an important role in structuring vegetation in fire-prone regions worldwide. Progress has been made towards documenting the effects of individual fire events and fire regimes on vegetation structure; less is known of how different fire history attributes (e.g., time since fire, fire frequency) interact to affect vegetation. Using the temperate eucalypt foothill forests of southeastern Australia as a case study system, we examine two hypotheses about such interactions: (1) post-fire vegetation succession (e.g., time-since-fire effects) is influenced by other fire regime attributes and (2) the severity of the most recent fire overrides the effect of preceding fires on vegetation structure. Empirical data on vegetation structure were collected from 540 sites distributed across central and eastern Victoria, Australia. Linear mixed models were used to examine these hypotheses and determine the relative influence of fire and environmental attributes on vegetation structure. Fire history measures, particularly time since fire, affected several vegetation attributes including ground and canopy strata; others such as low and sub-canopy vegetation were more strongly influenced by environmental characteristics like rainfall. There was little support for the hypothesis that post-fire succession is influenced by fire history attributes other than time since fire; only canopy regeneration was influenced by another variable (fire type, representing severity). Our capacity to detect an overriding effect of the severity of the most recent fire was limited by a consistently weak effect of preceding fires on vegetation structure. Overall, results suggest the primary way that fire affects vegetation structure in foothill forests is via attributes of the most recent fire, both its severity and time since its occurrence; other attributes of fire regimes (e.g., fire interval, frequency) have less influence. The strong effect of environmental drivers, such as rainfall and topography, on many structural features show that foothill forest vegetation is also influenced by factors outside human control. While fire is amenable to human management, results suggest that at broad scales, structural attributes of these forests are relatively resilient to the effects of current fire regimes. Nonetheless, the potential for more frequent severe fires at short intervals, associated with a changing climate and/or fire management, warrant further consideration.

Individual consistency and flexibility in human social information use.

Copying others appears to be a cost-effective way of obtaining adaptive information, particularly when flexibly employed. However, adult humans differ considerably in their propensity to use information from others, even when this 'social information' is beneficial, raising the possibility that stable individual differences constrain flexibility in social information use. We used two dissimilar decision-making computer games to investigate whether individuals flexibly adjusted their use of social information to current conditions or whether they valued social information similarly in both games. Participants also completed established personality questionnaires. We found that participants demonstrated considerable flexibility, adjusting social information use to current conditions. In particular, individuals employed a 'copy-when-uncertain' social learning strategy, supporting a core, but untested, assumption of influential theoretical models of cultural transmission. Moreover, participants adjusted the amount invested in their decision based on the perceived reliability of personally gathered information combined with the available social information. However, despite this strategic flexibility, participants also exhibited consistent individual differences in their propensities to use and value social information. Moreover, individuals who favoured social information self-reported as more collectivist than others. We discuss the implications of our results for social information use and cultural transmission.

Fatal Lactobacillus endocarditis in a patient with transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

Lactobacillus species may translocate from the gastrointestinal tract into systemic circulation from ingested probiotics or commensal flora. Their pathogenic potential is still debated. Lactobacillus endocarditis is a rare entity with only around 120 cases reported in the literature. Here, we report the first case of fatal Lactobacillus endocarditis with involvement of a transcatheter aortic valve replacement with the following goals: to reaffirm the pathological significance of Lactobacillus spp, to demonstrate the potential limitations of the modified Duke criteria in diagnosing infective endocarditis of transcatheter aortic valve replacement, and to urge clinicians to aggressively search for and consider empiric treatment for endocarditis in patients with prosthetic valves who develop Lactobacillus bacteraemia.

Evidence for developmental plasticity in response to demographic variation in nature.

Adaptive developmental plasticity has been demonstrated across a number of taxa in response to variables such as photoperiod, resource abundance, and predator presence. Demographics also vary temporally and spatially within populations, but few studies have examined the possibility that developmental plasticity in response to changes in these variables can alter phenotypic distributions. Plastic responses to variable population density and sex ratio may play an important role in explaining phenotypic variation in nature. In this study, we examine two species of spiders (Nephila plumipes and Argiope keyserlingi) to examine whether there is evidence that males alter their development in response to demographics in natural populations. We studied spiders in which developing males can use pheromones as a cue of the density of conspecific males and females. We used published information about the mating systems and life history of each species to make predictions about expected patterns of plasticity in development time and correlated changes in adult body size in response to demographic variation. Within each species, male size and mass were positively correlated with the density of males but negatively correlated with the density of females, and as predicted, this was true only when calculated at spatial scales relevant to selection in each species. In contrast, seasonal variation in photoperiod could not explain measured variance in male size. Our results support the idea that developmental plasticity in response to demographics has a significant effect on phenotypic distributions in natural populations. Our results suggest that a proportion of variation in male phenotypes could be explained as a plasticity-mediated evolutionary response to variation in population demographics rather than as a physiological response to resource abundance and/or photoperiod.

Spatial and temporal demographic variation drives within-season fluctuations in sexual selection.

Our understanding of selection in nature stems mainly from whole-season and cross-sectional estimates of selection gradients. These estimates suggest that selection is relatively constant within, but fluctuates between seasons. However, the strength of selection depends on demographics, and because demographics can vary within seasons, there is a gap in our understanding regarding the extent to which seasonal fluctuations in demographics may cause variation in selection. Here we use two populations of the golden orb-web spider (Nephila plumipes) that differ in density to examine how demographics change within a season and whether there are correlated shifts in selection. We demonstrate that there is within-season variation in sex ratio and density at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This variation led to changes in the competitive challenges that males encountered at different times of the season and was correlated with significant variation in selection gradients on male size and weight between sampling periods. We highlight the importance of understanding the biology of the organism under study to correctly determine the relevant scale in which to examine selection. We also argue that studies may underestimate the true variation in selection by averaging values, leading to misinterpretation of the effect of selection on phenotypic evolution.

Development and validation of an efficient in-house real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay for the quantitative detection of serum hepatitis delta virus RNA in a diverse South London population.

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) causes both acute and chronic hepatitis, always in the presence of hepatitis B. Analysis of global HDV isolates has shown that at least eight genotypes exist. HDV RNA quantitation and genotyping are important tools in the diagnosis and management of infected individuals. There is, as yet, no commercially available quantitative HDV RNA assay. Several laboratories have developed in-house assays, but equivalent detection and quantitation across all HDV genotypes has not been demonstrated. In this study, the development of an in-house real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT PCR) assay is described to quantify HDV RNA in serum or plasma. Its efficiency was validated by testing 99 samples from patients with known chronic HDV infection, along with 22 samples from individuals without HDV. The assay has a dynamic range of 6.4×10(2) to 6.4×10(8)copies/mL. Amplicons of the quantitative PCR can be directly used for sequence analysis and genotyping. HDV-1, HDV-5 and HDV-6 were identified, reflecting the areas of origin of our cohort of patients. The ability to genotype and to accurately quantify HDV RNA levels in the more recently discovered African genotypes will be important for investigating the natural history of HDV in this group, compared to those with genotype 1 disease.

Social performance cues induce behavioral flexibility in humans.

Behavioral flexibility allows individuals to react to environmental changes, but changing established behavior carries costs, with unknown benefits. Individuals may thus modify their behavioral flexibility according to the prevailing circumstances. Social information provided by the performance level of others provides one possible cue to assess the potential benefits of changing behavior, since out-performance in similar circumstances indicates that novel behaviors (innovations) are potentially useful. We demonstrate that social performance cues, in the form of previous players' scores in a problem-solving computer game, influence behavioral flexibility. Participants viewed only performance indicators, not the innovative behavior of others. While performance cues (high, low, or no scores) had little effect on innovation discovery rates, participants that viewed high scores increased their utilization of innovations, allowing them to exploit the virtual environment more effectively than players viewing low or no scores. Perceived conspecific performance can thus shape human decisions to adopt novel traits, even when the traits employed cannot be copied. This simple mechanism, social performance feedback, could be a driver of both the facultative adoption of innovations and cumulative cultural evolution, processes critical to human success.

Social learning of novel route preferences in adult humans.

Non-human animals can acquire novel route preferences by following knowledgeable individuals. Such socially learned route preferences can be stably maintained over multiple transmission episodes, sometimes forming long-lived traditions. In humans, preferences for familiar routes or heavily used worn trails over unfamiliar ones have been described in various contexts. However, social learning of route preferences has not been experimentally demonstrated in humans. Here, we demonstrate that social learning and tradition influence route choice. We led adult male and female participants into a room by one of two routes. Participants followed the demonstrated route choices, and later remembered and preferred this choice even when determinably suboptimal (i.e. longer and not preferred by control participants) or when the choice was indicated as arbitrary (the demonstrator took one route to retrieve a poster that had ostensibly fallen). Moreover, route preferences were stably maintained over multiple transmission episodes. We suggest that simple social learning processes, often neglected in human and primate research, can result in long-lived route preferences that may influence a range of additional behaviour patterns.

Spider signals: are web decorations visible to birds and bees?

We are becoming increasingly aware of animal communication outside the range of human sensitivity. Web decorations are silk structures used by orb-web spiders to deceive prey and predators. However, despite the level of interest in these structures, their visibility to prey and predators has never, to our knowledge, been objectively assessed. Here, we use spectrophotometric analyses to show that the decorations of all five tested spider species are visible to honey bees and birds over short and long distances. Furthermore, the discoid decorations of one species may provide some protection against arthropod predators. However, these decorations are inefficient at camouflaging the spider against birds, despite the overlap between the spider's body and web decoration.