Creation of a novel risk score for surgical site infection and occurrence after ventral hernia repair.

BACKGROUND: Complex ventral hernia repair (VHR) is a common surgical operation but carries a risk of complications from surgical site infections (SSI) and occurrences (SSO). We aimed to create a predictive risk score to identify patients at increased risk for SSO or SSI within 30 days of surgery. METHODS: Data were prospectively collected on all patients undergoing VHR between January 2008 and February 2015 by a single surgeon. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent factors predictive of SSO and SSI. Significant predictors of SSO and SSI were assigned point values based on their odds ratios to create a novel risk score, the Hopkins ventral hernia repair SSO/SSI risk score; predicted and actual rates of outcomes were then compared using weighted regression. RESULTS: During the study period, 362 patients underwent open VHR. Thirty-day SSO and SSI occurred in 18.5 and 10% of patients, respectively. After risk adjustment, ASA class ≥3 (1 point), operative time ≥4 h (2 points), and the absence of a postoperative wound vacuum dressing (1 point) were predictive of 30-day SSO. Predicted risk of SSO utilizing this scoring system was 9.7, 19.4, 29.1, and 38.8% for 1, 2, 3, and 4 points (AUC = 0.73). For SSI, operative time ≥4 h (1 point) and the lack of a wound vacuum dressing (1 point) were predictive. Predicted risk of SSI based on this scoring system was 12.5% for 1 point and 25% for 2 points (AUC = 0.71). Actual vs. predicted rates of SSO and SSI correlated strongly for risk model with a coefficient of determination (R 2) of 0.92 and 0.91, respectively. CONCLUSION: The novel Hopkins ventral hernia repair risk score accurately predicts risk of SSO and SSI after complex VHR. Further studies using a prospective randomized controlled trial will be needed to further validate our findings.

Effect of hernia size on operative repair and post-operative outcomes after open ventral hernia repair.

BACKGROUND: Ventral hernia repair (VHR) is a commonly performed operation, but analysis of patient outcomes based upon hernia size is lacking. We sought to identify differences in operative repair and post-operative morbidity and mortality after open VHR based on hernia defect size. METHODS: Patient and operative data were retrospectively reviewed on all patients undergoing open incisional VHR between January 2008 and February 2015 by a single surgeon at the Johns Hopkins Hospital. Patient variables were described by means for continuous variables and percentages for discrete variables, with differences between groups calculated by Chi-squared analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, 228 patients underwent open VHR during which intraoperative defect size was measured. Patients were split into four groups based upon defect size: less than 200 cm2, 200-300 cm2, 301-400 cm2, and over 400 cm2. Patients with large defects were more likely to present with a recurrent hernia (P = 0.007) and trended towards a history of wound infections (P = 0.07). Operative time was significantly longer as defect size increased (P < 0.001). Component separation was most frequently used in patients with defects 200-300 cm2 in size (P = 0.001), in whom primary closure was most likely to occur. While mesh was used in almost all patients, the specific location (overlay only, underlay only, or overlay with underlay) depended on hernia size (P < 0.001). Mean length of stay increased with defect size (P < 0.001). Larger defect size was associated with increased 30-day morbidity (P = 0.03) but not readmission (P = 0.53), recurrence (P = 0.99), or mortality (P = 0.99). CONCLUSION: Hernia defect size affects operative time and surgical technique for repair of a ventral hernia. Larger defect size is associated with increased post-operative morbidity and length of stay but not readmission, recurrence, or mortality. Hernia size greater than 400 cm2 should not be a limitation to operative repair.

A validated, risk assessment tool for predicting readmission after open ventral hernia repair.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: To present a validated model that reliably predicts unplanned readmission after open ventral hernia repair (open-VHR). STUDY DESIGN: A total of 17,789 open-VHR patients were identified using the 2011-2012 ACS-NSQIP databases. This cohort was subdivided into 70 and 30% random testing and validation samples, respectively. Thirty-day unplanned readmission was defined as unexpected readmission for a postoperative occurrence related to the open-VHR procedure. Independent predictors of 30-day unplanned readmission were identified using multivariable logistic regression on the testing sample (n = 12,452 patients). Subsequently, the predictors were weighted according to ß-coefficients to generate an integer-based Clinical Risk Score (CRS) predictive of readmission, which was validated using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis of the validation sample (n = 5337 patients). RESULTS: The rate of 30-day unplanned readmission was 4.7%. Independent risk factors included inpatient status at time of open-VHR, operation time, enterolysis, underweight, diabetes, preoperative anemia, length of stay, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of bleeding disorders, hernia with gangrene, and panniculectomy (all P < 0.05). ROC analysis of the validation cohort rendered an area under the curve of 0.71, which demonstrates the accuracy of this prediction model. Predicted incidence within each 5 risk strata was statistically similar to the observed incidence in the validation sample (P = 0.18), further highlighting the accuracy of this model. CONCLUSION: We present a validated risk stratification tool for unplanned readmissions following open-VHR. Future studies should determine if implementation of our CRS optimizes safety and reduces readmission rates in open-VHR patients.