The evolution and interpretation of seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among South African blood donors from the Beta to Omicron variant-driven waves.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses underestimate the total number of infections. Blood donors can provide representative seroprevalence estimates, which can be leveraged into reasonable estimates of total infection counts and infection fatality rate (IFR). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Blood donors who donated after each of three epidemic waves (Beta, Delta and first Omicron waves) were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies using the Roche Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 total immunoglobulin assay. Roche Elecsys anti-spike antibody testing was done for the post-Omicron sampling. Prevalence of antibodies was estimated by age, sex, race and province and compared to official case reporting. Province and age group-specific IFRs were estimated using external excess mortality estimates. RESULTS: The nationally weighted anti-nucleocapsid seroprevalence estimates after the Beta, Delta and Omicron waves were 47% (46.2%-48.6%), 71% (68.8%-73.5%) and 87% (85.5%-88.4%), respectively. There was no variation by age and sex, but there were statistically and epidemiologically significant differences by province (except at the latest time point) and race. There was a 13-fold higher seroprevalence than confirmed case counts at the first time point. Age-dependent IFR roughly doubled for every 10 years of age increase over 6 decades from 0.014% in children to 6.793% in octogenarians. CONCLUSION: Discrepancies were found between seroprevalence and confirmed case counts. High seroprevalence rates found among Black African donors can be ascribed to historical inequities. Our IFR estimates were useful in refining previous large disagreements about the severity of the epidemic in South Africa. Blood donor-based serosurveys provided a valuable and efficient way to provide near real-time monitoring of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

Mathematical Model to Assess Potential Reduced Specificity When Switching to New Screening Assays at Blood Donation Centers.

BACKGROUND: Switching to new infectious disease blood donor screening assays can precipitate an initial decrease in specificity in an established donor population followed by an increase of specificity, referred to as a "cleaning effect". We developed a mathematical model to simulate this and to measure the stabilization of specificity. METHODS: A modified exponential distribution curve was created to show the impact of donation frequency on the cleaning of the donor pool. Other parameters (e.g., number of donations from repeat donors/donations per month, average and minimum times between donations, retention of regular repeat donors, ratio of false positives for regular repeat donors/first-time donors and specificity of newly introduced assays) were also used to simulate the rise and fall in number of additional false positives. The mathematical model created was compared with real-world data from a South African blood donation center. RESULTS: In the mathematical model, the degree and duration of the cleaning effect were influenced by certain parameters. A longer time interval between donations resulted in a higher number of deferred blood donations than a shorter time interval, if deferred after a 1st, 2nd or 3rd false positive result prior to a stable plateau of specificity. Real-world data on false positive, discarded donations from a South African blood donation center were consistent with numbers from the mathematical model. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical model can identify and describe any "cleaning effect" observed upon switching to a new infectious disease blood screening assay, allowing affected blood donation centers to prepare and adjust, while specificity is stabilized.

Prevalence and risks of hepatitis E virus infection in blood donors from the Western Cape, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Transfusion-transmitted hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection is a potential risk to recipients of blood transfusions. Infection with HEV poses a high risk to immunocompromised recipients with an increased likelihood of developing chronic infection. The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence of past and active HEV infections in donors from the Western Cape and to identify the risk factors associated with infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We prospectively tested 10 250 blood donors for HEV infection. A risk factor sub-study investigated 250 donors who completed a questionnaire, and plasma samples were tested for HEV IgG antibodies and pooled for HEV RNA detection. The demographic and risk factors associated with HEV infection were assessed. The molecular study tested 10 000 individual donations using a commercial assay to detect viraemia. HEV viral load and genotype were also determined. RESULTS: The overall anti-HEV IgG seroprevalence was 42·8% (107/250) among donors participating in the risk factor sub-study. The likelihood of past HEV infection was higher with an increase in age. Of the 10 000 donor samples individually tested for HEV RNA, one sample was positive with a viral load of 7·9 x 104 IU/ml and belonged to HEV genotype 3. CONCLUSION: We found a high seroprevalence of anti-HEV IgG but a low HEV RNA prevalence among donors in the Western Cape, South Africa. The study provides evidence for a potential risk of HEV contamination in the blood supply in South Africa. A cost-benefit analysis is needed before considering the introduction of routine donor screening in our setting.

Characterization of occult hepatitis B virus strains in South African blood donors.

UNLABELLED: Since October 2005, all blood units collected in South Africa were screened individually for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1, hepatitis B and C virus (HBV, HCV) genomes uncovering preseroconversion window period (WP) infections for each virus and occult HBV infections (OBIs) defined as persistent HBV DNA without detectable hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Samples identified as HBsAg-negative/DNA-positive were confirmed by combining real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction, nested amplification, anti-HBc and anti-HBs. Amplified basic core promoter/precore, pre-S/S, and whole genome were sequenced, analyzed, and compared to 73 HBsAg+ strains. Genotype was determined by phylogenetic analysis. From 109 samples examined, 54 were classified as OBI, 14 as WP, 20 as false-positive, five as other classification, and 16 as undetermined due to lack of serological or follow-up data. OBI donors were predominantly males (67%), median age 31 years, black (54%), with normal alanine aminotransferase levels. Viral load ranged between unquantifiable and 518 IU/mL (median 5 IU/mL). Genotype A1 was more frequent (23 strains) than genotype D (seven strains). Genotype A1 strains were little mutated. In the major hydrophilic region, 56.5% strains were wild type or with few amino acid substitutions. Most important, all 13 full genome sequences presented 1 to 7 mutations known to or assumed to negatively impact viral replication. In particular, 6/13 sequences had a stop codon in the HBx gene translated into deletion of 117 or 19-25 C-terminus amino acids not found in 15 HBeAg+ HBsAg+ strains. One WP sequence with an HBx stop codon suggested infectivity. CONCLUSION: Genotype A1 OBIs are different from genotype A2 and D OBIs in that there is little evidence of immune pressure as a major factor involved in OBI genesis. Limited replication appears mostly related to genetic viral defects.