Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030. METHODS: Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level. RESULTS: Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. METHODS: We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. RESULTS: Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Selecting tree species to restore forest under climate change conditions: Complementing species distribution models with field experimentation.

The long-term success of forest restoration programs can be improved using climate-based species distribution models (SDMs) to predict which tree species will tolerate climate change. However, as SDMs cannot estimate if species will recruit at these habitats, determining whether their predictions apply to early life-cycle stages of trees is critical to support such a usage. For this, we propose sowing seeds of the focal tree species under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions in target restoration sites. Thus, using of SDMs to design climate-adaptive forest restoration programs would be supported if the differences in habitat occupancy probabilities of species they predict between the current and future climate concurs with the observed differences in recruitment rates of species when sowed under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions. To test this hypothesis, we calibrated SDMs for Vachellia pennatula and Prosopis laevigata, two pioneer tree species widely recommended to restore human-degraded drylands in Mexico, and transferred them to climate change scenarios. After that, we applied the experimental approach proposed above to validate the predictions of SDMs. These models predicted that V. pennatula will decrease its habitat occupancy probabilities across Mexico, while P. laevigata was predicted to keep out their current habitat occupancy probabilities, or even increase them, in climate change scenarios. The results of the field experiment supported these predictions, as recruitment rates of V. pennatula were lower under simulated climate change than under the current climate, while no differences were found for the recruitment rates of P. laevigata between these environmental conditions. These findings demonstrate that SDMs provide meaningful insights for designing climate-adaptive forest restoration programs but, before applying this methodology, predictions of these models must be validated with field experiments to determine whether the focal tree species will recruit under climate change conditions. Moreover, as the pioneer trees used to test our proposal seem to be differentially sensitive to climate change, this approach also allows establishing what species must be prescribed to restore forests with a view to the future and what species must be avoided in these practices.

Assessing the effect of environmental and socio-economic factors on skin melanoma incidence: an island-wide spatial study in Gran Canaria (Spain), 2007-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Skin melanoma incidence has risen in the last decades becoming a major public health problem in many regions of the world. Geographic variation of rates is not well understood. PURPOSE: To assess the spatial distribution of skin melanoma in Gran Canaria Island (Canary Islands, Spain) and to evaluate the role of environmental, socio-economic, and demographic factors in this distribution. METHODS: We performed a small-area study with disease mapping at the census-tract level (CT) in Gran Canaria between 2007 and 2018. After testing for spatial autocorrelation, we integrated individual-level health data with census-based demographic and socio-economic indicators, and satellite-based environmental data. Finally, we assessed the role of demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors on skin melanoma incidence using a Bayesian analytical framework, with options for non-spatial and spatial random effects. RESULTS: 1058 patients were diagnosed with invasive skin melanoma in the study period and geolocated to a CT (number of CT in Gran Canaria = 565). We found evidence of global spatial autocorrelation in skin melanoma incidence (Moran's I = 0.09, pseudo p-value = 0.001). A few hotspots were detected, fundamentally in urban northern tracts. A radial pattern of high values was also observed in selected ravines with historical isolation. Multivariable conditional autoregressive models identified urbanicity, percent of females, and a high socio-economic status as risk factors for disease. Solar radiation did not show a significant role. CONCLUSION: Urbanicity and a high socio-economic status were identified as the main risk factors for skin melanoma. These associations might reflect differential melanoma susceptibilities or be explained by health inequalities in detection. This study also uncovered high-risk areas in particular ravines. Future targeted research in these regions might help better understand the role of genetic and toxic factors in melanoma pathogenesis.

Epigenetic Deregulation in Human Primary Immunodeficiencies.

Primary immunodeficiencies (PIDs) are immune disorders resulting from defects in genes involved in immune regulation, and manifesting as an increased susceptibility to infections, autoimmunity, and cancer. However, the molecular basis of some prevalent entities remains poorly understood. Epigenetic control is essential for immune functions, and epigenetic alterations have been identified in different PIDs, including syndromes such as immunodeficiency-centromeric-instability-facial-anomalies, Kabuki, or Wolf-Hirschhorn, among others. Although the epigenetic changes may differ among these PIDs, the reversibility of epigenetic modifications suggests that they might become potential therapeutic targets. Here, we review recent mechanistic advances in our understanding of epigenetic alterations associated with certain PIDs, propose that a fully epigenetically driven mechanism might underlie some PIDs, and discuss the possible prophylactic and therapeutic implications.

Cattle-related risk factors for malaria in southwest Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the low to moderate intensity of malaria transmission present in Ethiopia, malaria is still a leading public health problem. Current vector control interventions, principally long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying, when deployed alone or in combination, are insufficient to control the dominant vector species due to their exophagic and exophilic tendencies. Zooprophylaxis presents a potential supplementary vector control method for malaria; however, supporting evidence for its efficacy has been mixed. METHODS: To identify risk factors of malaria and to estimate the association between cattle and Anopheles vector abundance as well as malaria risk, a cross-sectional study was conducted in a village near Arba Minch, Ethiopia. Epidemiological surveys (households = 95, individuals = 463), mosquito collections using CDC light traps and a census of cattle and human populations were conducted. To capture environmental conditions, land cover and water bodies were mapped using satellite imagery. Risk factor analyses were performed through logistic, Poisson, negative binomial, and spatial weighted regression models. RESULTS: The only risk factor associated with self-reported malaria illness at an individual level was being a child aged 5 or under, where they had three times higher odds than adults. At the household level, variables associated with malaria vector abundance, especially those indoors, included socioeconomic status, the proportion of children in a household and cattle population density. CONCLUSIONS: Study results are limited by the low abundance of malaria vectors found and use of self-reported malaria incidence. Environmental factors together with a household's socioeconomic status and host availability played important roles in the risk of malaria infection in southwest Ethiopia. Cattle abundance in the form of higher cattle to human ratios may act as a protective factor against mosquito infestation and malaria risk. Humans should remain indoors to maximize potential protection against vectors and cattle kept outside of homes.

Recruitment of pioneer trees with physically dormant seeds under climate change: the case of Vachellia pennatula (Fabaceae) in semiarid environments of Mexico.

Most tree species native to arid and semiarid ecosystems produce seeds with physical dormancy, which have impermeable coats that protect them from desiccation and prevent germination when the environmental conditions are unfavorable for seedling establishment. This dormancy mechanism may confer some degree of tolerance to seeds facing warmer and drier conditions, as those expected in several regions of the world because of climate change. Scarification of these seeds (removal of protective coats) is required for stimulating germination and seedling development. However, as scarification exposes seeds to the external environmental conditions, it can promote desiccation and viability loss in the future. To test these hypotheses, we performed field experiments and sowed scarified and unscarified seeds of a pioneer tree native to semiarid ecosystems of Mesoamerica (Vachellia pennatula) under the current climate and simulated climate change conditions. The experiments were conducted at abandoned fields using open-top chambers to increase temperature and rainout shelters to reduce rainfall. We measured microenvironmental conditions within the experimental plots and monitored seedling emergence and survival during a year. Air temperature and rainfall in climate change simulations approached the values expected for the period 2041-2080. Seedling emergence rates under these climatic conditions were lower than under the current climate. Nevertheless, emergence rates in climate change simulations were even lower for scarified than for unscarified seeds, while the converse occurred under the current climate. On the other hand, although survival rates in climate change simulations were lower than under the current climate, no effects of the scarification treatment were found. In this way, our study suggests that climate change will impair the recruitment of pioneer trees in semiarid environments, even if they produce seeds with physical dormancy, but also indicates that these negative effects will be stronger if seeds are scarified.

Neighbors' use of water and sanitation facilities can affect children's health: a cohort study in Mozambique using a spatial approach.

BACKGROUND: Impact evaluation of most water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions in health are user-centered. However, recent research discussed WASH herd protection - community WASH coverage could protect neighboring households. We evaluated the effect of water and sanitation used in the household and by household neighbors in children's morbidity and mortality using recorded health data. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort including 61,333 children from a district in Mozambique during 2012-2015. We obtained water and sanitation household data and morbidity data from Manhiça Health Research Centre surveillance system. To evaluate herd protection, we estimated the density of household neighbors with improved facilities using a Kernel Density Estimator. We fitted negative binomial adjusted regression models to assess the minimum children-based incidence rates for every morbidity indicator, and Cox regression models for mortality. RESULTS: Household use of unimproved water and sanitation displayed a higher rate of outpatient visit, diarrhea, malaria, and anemia. Households with unimproved water and sanitation surrounded by neighbors with improved water and sanitation high coverage were associated with a lower rate of outpatient visit, malaria, anemia, and malnutrition. CONCLUSION: Household and neighbors' access to improve water and sanitation can affect children's health. Accounting for household WASH and herd protection in interventions' evaluation could foster stakeholders' investment and improve WASH related diseases control. Distribution of main water and sanitation facilities used during study period.

Childhood B-Cell Preleukemia Mouse Modeling.

Leukemia is the most usual childhood cancer, and B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL) is its most common presentation. It has been proposed that pediatric leukemogenesis occurs through a "multi-step" or "multi-hit" mechanism that includes both in utero and postnatal steps. Many childhood leukemia-initiating events, such as chromosomal translocations, originate in utero, and studies so far suggest that these "first-hits" occur at a far higher frequency than the incidence of childhood leukemia itself. The reason why only a small percentage of the children born with such preleukemic "hits" will develop full-blown leukemia is still a mystery. In order to better understand childhood leukemia, mouse modeling is essential, but only if the multistage process of leukemia can be recapitulated in the model. Therefore, mouse models naturally reproducing the "multi-step" process of childhood B-ALL will be essential to identify environmental or other factors that are directly linked to increased risk of disease.

Revisiting Reichenbach's logic.

In this paper we show that, when analyzed with contemporary tools in logic-such as Dunn-style semantics, Reichenbach's three-valued logic exhibits many interesting features, and even new responses to some of the old objections to it can be attempted. Also, we establish some connections between Reichenbach's three-valued logic and some contra-classical logics.

Spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda using HMIS data from 2015 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: As global progress to reduce malaria transmission continues, it is increasingly important to track changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Risk estimates for Africa have largely underutilized available health management information systems (HMIS) data to monitor trends. This study uses national HMIS data, together with environmental and geographical data, to assess spatial-temporal patterns of malaria incidence at facility catchment level in Uganda, over a recent 5-year period. METHODS: Data reported by 3446 health facilities in Uganda, between July 2015 and September 2019, was analysed. To assess the geographic accessibility of the health facilities network, AccessMod was employed to determine a three-hour cost-distance catchment around each facility. Using confirmed malaria cases and total catchment population by facility, an ecological Bayesian conditional autoregressive spatial-temporal Poisson model was fitted to generate monthly posterior incidence rate estimates, adjusted for caregiver education, rainfall, land surface temperature, night-time light (an indicator of urbanicity), and vegetation index. RESULTS: An estimated 38.8 million (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 37.9-40.9) confirmed cases of malaria occurred over the period, with a national mean monthly incidence rate of 20.4 (95% CI: 19.9-21.5) cases per 1000, ranging from 8.9 (95% CI: 8.7-9.4) to 36.6 (95% CI: 35.7-38.5) across the study period. Strong seasonality was observed, with June-July experiencing highest peaks and February-March the lowest peaks. There was also considerable geographic heterogeneity in incidence, with health facility catchment relative risk during peak transmission months ranging from 0 to 50.5 (95% CI: 49.0-50.8) times higher than national average. Both districts and health facility catchments showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation; health facility catchments had global Moran's I = 0.3 (p < 0.001) and districts Moran's I = 0.4 (p < 0.001). Notably, significant clusters of high-risk health facility catchments were concentrated in Acholi, West Nile, Karamoja, and East Central - Busoga regions. CONCLUSION: Findings showed clear countrywide spatial-temporal patterns with clustering of malaria risk across districts and health facility catchments within high risk regions, which can facilitate targeting of interventions to those areas at highest risk. Moreover, despite high and perennial transmission, seasonality for malaria incidence highlights the potential for optimal and timely implementation of targeted interventions.

Understanding the spatial distribution of trichiasis and its association with trachomatous inflammation-follicular.

BACKGROUND: Whilst previous work has identified clustering of the active trachoma sign "trachomatous inflammation-follicular" (TF), there is limited understanding of the spatial structure of trachomatous trichiasis (TT), the rarer, end-stage, blinding form of disease. Here we use community-level TF prevalence, information on access to water and sanitation, and large-scale environmental and socio-economic indicators to model the spatial variation in community-level TT prevalence in Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, DRC, Guinea, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda. METHODS: We fit binomial mixed models, with community-level random effects, separately for each country. In countries where spatial correlation was detected through a semi-variogram diagnostic check we then fitted a geostatistical model to the TT prevalence data including TF prevalence as an explanatory variable. RESULTS: The estimated regression relationship between community-level TF and TT was significant in eight countries. We estimate that a 10% increase in community-level TF prevalence leads to an increase in the odds for TT ranging from 20 to 86% when accounting for additional covariates. CONCLUSION: We find evidence of an association between TF and TT in some parts of Africa. However, our results also suggest the presence of additional, country-specific, spatial risk factors which modulate the variation in TT risk.

Role of Environmental Factors in Shaping Spatial Distribution of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhi, Fiji.

Fiji recently experienced a sharp increase in reported typhoid fever cases. To investigate geographic distribution and environmental risk factors associated with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi infection, we conducted a cross-sectional cluster survey with associated serologic testing for Vi capsular antigen-specific antibodies (a marker for exposure to Salmonella Typhi in Fiji in 2013. Hotspots with high seroprevalence of Vi-specific antibodies were identified in northeastern mainland Fiji. Risk for Vi seropositivity increased with increased annual rainfall (odds ratio [OR] 1.26/quintile increase, 95% CI 1.12-1.42), and decreased with increased distance from major rivers and creeks (OR 0.89/km increase, 95% CI 0.80-0.99) and distance to modeled flood-risk areas (OR 0.80/quintile increase, 95% CI 0.69-0.92) after being adjusted for age, typhoid fever vaccination, and home toilet type. Risk for exposure to Salmonella Typhi and its spatial distribution in Fiji are driven by environmental factors. Our findings can directly affect typhoid fever control efforts in Fiji.

Use of a CD laser pickup head to fabricate microelectrodes in polymethylmethacrylate substrates for biosensing applications.

In this work, we report a simple fabrication method for microelectrodes on a polymethylmethacrylate substrate, using a low-cost laser platform based on a CD-DVD unit for direct rapid-prototyping. We used this laser microfabrication technique to etch any desired design on polymethylmethacrylate substrates to produce microchannels with controlled geometry, with a highly repeatable micron-scale resolution. Those shallow microchannels were then filled with a conductive paste of material of our choice that was converted into microelectrodes of desired shapes and geometries after drying. To validate our process, different geometries, sizes and materials were used as electrodes, and then tested for amperometry and impedance measurements. Development of these microelectrodes is motivated by their potential application in sensors and biosensors, such as glucose and cell counting, as demonstrated in this paper.

Determinants of delay in malaria care-seeking behaviour for children 15 years and under in Bata district, Equatorial Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years of age in Equatorial Guinea. Early appropriate treatment can reduce progression of the illness to severe stages, thus reducing of mortality, morbidity and onward transmission. The factors that contribute to malaria treatment delay have not been studied previously in Equatorial Guinea. The objective of this study was to assess the determinants of delay in seeking malaria treatment for children in the Bata district, in mainland Equatorial Guinea. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Bata district, in 2013, which involved 428 houses in 18 rural villages and 26 urban neighbourhoods. Household caregivers were identified in each house and asked about their knowledge of malaria and about the management of the last reported malaria episode in a child 15 years and younger under their care. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to determine the relevance of socio-economic, geographical and behavioural factors on delays in care-seeking behaviour. RESULTS: Nearly half of the children sought treatment at least 24 h after the onset of the symptoms. The median delay in seeking care was 2.8 days. Children from households with the highest socio-economic status were less likely to be delayed in seeking care than those from households with the lowest socio-economic status (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.19-0.72). Children that first received treatment at home, mainly paracetamol, were more than twice more likely to be delayed for seeking care, than children who did not first receive treatment at home (OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.45-3.83). Children living in a distance >3 km from the nearest health facility were almost two times more likely to be delayed in seeking care than those living closer to a facility but with non significant association once adjusted for other variables (OR 1.75, 95% CI 0.88-3.47). CONCLUSION: To decrease malaria morbidity and mortality in Bata district, efforts should be addressed to reduce household delays in seeking care. It is necessary to provide free access to effective malaria diagnosis and treatment, to reinforce malaria management at community level through community health workers and drug sellers and to increase awareness on the severity of malaria, the importance of early diagnosis and appropriate treatment.

Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia and clinical malaria among school children living in a high transmission setting in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Malaria among school children is increasingly receiving attention, yet the burden of malaria in this age group is poorly defined. This study presents data on malaria morbidity among school children in Bungoma county, western Kenya. METHOD: This study investigated the burden and risk factors of Plasmodium falciparum infection, clinical malaria, and anaemia among 2346 school children aged 5-15 years, who were enrolled in an individually randomized trial evaluating the effect of anthelmintic treatment on the risks of malaria. At baseline, children were assessed for anaemia and nutritional status and information on household characteristics was collected. Children were followed-up for 13 months to assess the incidence of clinical malaria by active detection, and P. falciparum infection and density evaluated using repeated cross-sectional surveys over 15 months. RESULTS: On average prevalence of P. falciparum infection was 42% and ranged between 32 and 48% during the five cross-sectional surveys. Plasmodium falciparum prevalence was significantly higher among boys than girls. The overall incidence of clinical malaria was 0.26 episodes per person year (95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.29) and was significantly higher among girls (0.23 versus 0.31, episodes per person years). Both infection prevalence and clinical disease varied by season. In multivariable analysis, P. falciparum infection was associated with being male, lower socioeconomic status and stunting. The risk of clinical malaria was associated with being female. CONCLUSION: These findings show that the burden of P. falciparum parasitaemia, clinical malaria and anaemia among school children is not insignificant, and suggest that malaria control programmes should be expanded to include this age group.

Integrating vector control across diseases.

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne diseases cause a significant proportion of the overall burden of disease across the globe, accounting for over 10 % of the burden of infectious diseases. Despite the availability of effective interventions for many of these diseases, a lack of resources prevents their effective control. Many existing vector control interventions are known to be effective against multiple diseases, so combining vector control programmes to simultaneously tackle several diseases could offer more cost-effective and therefore sustainable disease reductions. DISCUSSION: The highly successful cross-disease integration of vaccine and mass drug administration programmes in low-resource settings acts a precedent for cross-disease vector control. Whilst deliberate implementation of vector control programmes across multiple diseases has yet to be trialled on a large scale, a number of examples of 'accidental' cross-disease vector control suggest the potential of such an approach. Combining contemporary high-resolution global maps of the major vector-borne pathogens enables us to quantify overlap in their distributions and to estimate the populations jointly at risk of multiple diseases. Such an analysis shows that over 80 % of the global population live in regions of the world at risk from one vector-borne disease, and more than half the world's population live in areas where at least two different vector-borne diseases pose a threat to health. Combining information on co-endemicity with an assessment of the overlap of vector control methods effective against these diseases allows us to highlight opportunities for such integration. Malaria, leishmaniasis, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue are prime candidates for combined vector control. All four of these diseases overlap considerably in their distributions and there is a growing body of evidence for the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets, screens, and curtains for controlling all of their vectors. The real-world effectiveness of cross-disease vector control programmes can only be evaluated by large-scale trials, but there is clear evidence of the potential of such an approach to enable greater overall health benefit using the limited funds available.

Influence of malaria transmission intensity and the 581G mutation on the efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate where intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) using sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) could be withdrawn as an intervention due to declining malaria transmission intensity, or due to increasing prevalence of the Plasmodium falciparum dihydropteroate synthetase resistance mutation at codon 581G. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of protection against the incidence of low birth weight (LBW) conferred by ≥2 doses of IPTp-SP. We matched these outcomes to a proxy measure of malaria incidence in women of the same studies, applied meta-regression models to these data and conducted sensitivity analysis of the 581G mutation. RESULTS: Variation in the protective effect of IPTp-SP against LBW could not be explained by malaria transmission intensity. Among primi- and secundigravidae, IPTp-SP protected against LBW where 581G was ≤10.1% [odds ratio (OR): 0.49; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.29, 0.81; P = <0.01] and 581G was >10.1% (OR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.29, 1.81; P = 0.03). Random-effects models among multigravidae showed that IPTp-SP protects against LBW where 581G was ≤10.1% (OR = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.37, 0.86; P = 0.07), a finding of borderline statistical significance. No evidence of protection against LBW was observed where 581G was >10.1% (OR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.70, 1.34; P = 0.47). CONCLUSION: There appears to be a prevalence of 581G above which IPTp-SP no longer protects against LBW. Pregnancy studies are urgently needed where 581G is >10.1% to define the specific prevalence threshold where new strategies should be deployed.

Predicting the Environmental Suitability and Identifying Climate and Sociodemographic Correlates of Guinea Worm (Dracunculus Medinensis) in Chad.

A comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution and correlates of infection are key for the planning of disease control programs and assessing the feasibility of elimination and/or eradication. In this work, we used species distribution modeling to predict the environmental suitability of the Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) and identify important climatic and sociodemographic risk factors. Using Guinea worm surveillance data collected by the Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) from 2010 to 2022 in combination with remotely sensed climate and sociodemographic correlates of infection within an ensemble machine learning framework, we mapped the environmental suitability of Guinea worm infection in Chad. The same analytical framework was also used to ascertain the contribution and influence of the identified climatic risk factors. Spatial distribution maps showed predominant clustering around the southern regions and along the Chari River. We also identified areas predicted to be environmentally suitable for infection. Of note are districts near the western border with Cameroon and southeastern border with Central African Republic. Key environmental correlates of infection as identified by the model were proximity to permanent rivers and inland lakes, farmlands, land surface temperature, and precipitation. This work provides a comprehensive model of the spatial distribution of Guinea worm infections in Chad 2010-2022 and sheds light on potential environmental correlates of infection. As the CGWEP moves toward elimination, the methods and results in this study will inform surveillance activities and help optimize the allocation of intervention resources.

Genetic diversity and signatures of selection of drug resistance in Plasmodium populations from both human and mosquito hosts in continental Equatorial Guinea.

BACKGROUND: In Plasmodium, the high level of genetic diversity and the interactions established by co-infecting parasite populations within the same host may be a source of selection on pathogen virulence and drug resistance. As different patterns have already been described in humans and mosquitoes, parasite diversity and population structure should be studied in both hosts to properly assess their effects on infection and transmission dynamics. This study aimed to characterize the circulating populations of Plasmodium spp and Plasmodium falciparum from a combined set of human blood and mosquito samples gathered in mainland Equatorial Guinea. Further, the origin and evolution of anti-malarial resistance in this area, where malaria remains a major public health problem were traced. METHODS: Plasmodium species infecting humans and mosquitoes were identified by nested-PCR of chelex-extracted DNA from dried blood spot samples and mosquitoes. Analysis of Pfmsp2 gene, anti-malarial-resistance associated genes, Pfdhps, Pfdhfr, Pfcrt and Pfmdr1, neutral microsatellites (STR) loci and Pfdhfr and Pfdhps flanking STR was undertaken to evaluate P. falciparum diversity. RESULTS: Prevalence of infection remains high in mainland Equatorial Guinea. No differences in parasite formula or significant genetic differentiation were seen in the parasite populations in both human and mosquito samples. Point mutations in all genes associated with anti-malarial resistance were highly prevalent. A high prevalence was observed for the Pfdhfr triple mutant in particular, associated with pyrimethamine resistance.Analysis of Pfdhps and Pfdhfr flanking STR revealed a decrease in the genetic diversity. This finding along with multiple independent introductions of Pfdhps mutant haplotypes suggest a soft selective sweep and an increased differentiation at Pfdhfr flanking microsatellites hints a model of positive directional selection for this gene. CONCLUSIONS: Chloroquine is no longer recommended for malaria treatment in Equatorial Guinea but sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) remains in use in combination with artesunate and is the only drug recommended in preventive chemotherapy in pregnancy. The high prevalence of point mutations in Pfdhfr and Pfdhps points to the danger of an eventual reduction in the efficacy of SP combined therapy in P. falciparum populations in Equatorial Guinea and to the essential continuous monitoring of these two genes.