Anoxia begets anoxia: A positive feedback to the deoxygenation of temperate lakes.

Declining oxygen concentrations in the deep waters of lakes worldwide pose a pressing environmental and societal challenge. Existing theory suggests that low deep-water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations could trigger a positive feedback through which anoxia (i.e., very low DO) during a given summer begets increasingly severe occurrences of anoxia in following summers. Specifically, anoxic conditions can promote nutrient release from sediments, thereby stimulating phytoplankton growth, and subsequent phytoplankton decomposition can fuel heterotrophic respiration, resulting in increased spatial extent and duration of anoxia. However, while the individual relationships in this feedback are well established, to our knowledge, there has not been a systematic analysis within or across lakes that simultaneously demonstrates all of the mechanisms necessary to produce a positive feedback that reinforces anoxia. Here, we compiled data from 656 widespread temperate lakes and reservoirs to analyze the proposed anoxia begets anoxia feedback. Lakes in the dataset span a broad range of surface area (1-126,909 ha), maximum depth (6-370 m), and morphometry, with a median time-series duration of 30 years at each lake. Using linear mixed models, we found support for each of the positive feedback relationships between anoxia, phosphorus concentrations, chlorophyll a concentrations, and oxygen demand across the 656-lake dataset. Likewise, we found further support for these relationships by analyzing time-series data from individual lakes. Our results indicate that the strength of these feedback relationships may vary with lake-specific characteristics: For example, we found that surface phosphorus concentrations were more positively associated with chlorophyll a in high-phosphorus lakes, and oxygen demand had a stronger influence on the extent of anoxia in deep lakes. Taken together, these results support the existence of a positive feedback that could magnify the effects of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures driving the development of anoxia in lakes around the world.

Progress and opportunities in advancing near-term forecasting of freshwater quality.

Near-term freshwater forecasts, defined as sub-daily to decadal future predictions of a freshwater variable with quantified uncertainty, are urgently needed to improve water quality management as freshwater ecosystems exhibit greater variability due to global change. Shifting baselines in freshwater ecosystems due to land use and climate change prevent managers from relying on historical averages for predicting future conditions, necessitating near-term forecasts to mitigate freshwater risks to human health and safety (e.g., flash floods, harmful algal blooms) and ecosystem services (e.g., water-related recreation and tourism). To assess the current state of freshwater forecasting and identify opportunities for future progress, we synthesized freshwater forecasting papers published in the past 5 years. We found that freshwater forecasting is currently dominated by near-term forecasts of water quantity and that near-term water quality forecasts are fewer in number and in the early stages of development (i.e., non-operational) despite their potential as important preemptive decision support tools. We contend that more freshwater quality forecasts are critically needed and that near-term water quality forecasting is poised to make substantial advances based on examples of recent progress in forecasting methodology, workflows, and end-user engagement. For example, current water quality forecasting systems can predict water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and algal bloom/toxin events 5 days ahead with reasonable accuracy. Continued progress in freshwater quality forecasting will be greatly accelerated by adapting tools and approaches from freshwater quantity forecasting (e.g., machine learning modeling methods). In addition, future development of effective operational freshwater quality forecasts will require substantive engagement of end users throughout the forecast process, funding, and training opportunities. Looking ahead, near-term forecasting provides a hopeful future for freshwater management in the face of increased variability and risk due to global change, and we encourage the freshwater scientific community to incorporate forecasting approaches in water quality research and management.

Anoxia decreases the magnitude of the carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus sink in freshwaters.

Oxygen availability is decreasing in many lakes and reservoirs worldwide, raising the urgency for understanding how anoxia (low oxygen) affects coupled biogeochemical cycling, which has major implications for water quality, food webs, and ecosystem functioning. Although the increasing magnitude and prevalence of anoxia has been documented in freshwaters globally, the challenges of disentangling oxygen and temperature responses have hindered assessment of the effects of anoxia on carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations, stoichiometry (chemical ratios), and retention in freshwaters. The consequences of anoxia are likely severe and may be irreversible, necessitating ecosystem-scale experimental investigation of decreasing freshwater oxygen availability. To address this gap, we devised and conducted REDOX (the Reservoir Ecosystem Dynamic Oxygenation eXperiment), an unprecedented, 7-year experiment in which we manipulated and modeled bottom-water (hypolimnetic) oxygen availability at the whole-ecosystem scale in a eutrophic reservoir. Seven years of data reveal that anoxia significantly increased hypolimnetic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations and altered elemental stoichiometry by factors of 2-5× relative to oxic periods. Importantly, prolonged summer anoxia increased nitrogen export from the reservoir by six-fold and changed the reservoir from a net sink to a net source of phosphorus and organic carbon downstream. While low oxygen in freshwaters is thought of as a response to land use and climate change, results from REDOX demonstrate that low oxygen can also be a driver of major changes to freshwater biogeochemical cycling, which may serve as an intensifying feedback that increases anoxia in downstream waterbodies. Consequently, as climate and land use change continue to increase the prevalence of anoxia in lakes and reservoirs globally, it is likely that anoxia will have major effects on freshwater carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus budgets as well as water quality and ecosystem functioning.

Near-term phytoplankton forecasts reveal the effects of model time step and forecast horizon on predictability.

As climate and land use increase the variability of many ecosystems, forecasts of ecological variables are needed to inform management and use of ecosystem services. In particular, forecasts of phytoplankton would be especially useful for drinking water management, as phytoplankton populations are exhibiting greater fluctuations due to human activities. While phytoplankton forecasts are increasing in number, many questions remain regarding the optimal model time step (the temporal frequency of the forecast model output), time horizon (the length of time into the future a prediction is made) for maximizing forecast performance, as well as what factors contribute to uncertainty in forecasts and their scalability among sites. To answer these questions, we developed near-term, iterative forecasts of phytoplankton 1-14 days into the future using forecast models with three different time steps (daily, weekly, fortnightly), that included a full uncertainty partitioning analysis at two drinking water reservoirs. We found that forecast accuracy varies with model time step and forecast horizon, and that forecast models can outperform null estimates under most conditions. Weekly and fortnightly forecasts consistently outperformed daily forecasts at 7-day and 14-day horizons, a trend that increased up to the 14-day forecast horizon. Importantly, our work suggests that forecast accuracy can be increased by matching the forecast model time step to the forecast horizon for which predictions are needed. We found that model process uncertainty was the primary source of uncertainty in our phytoplankton forecasts over the forecast period, but parameter uncertainty increased during phytoplankton blooms and when scaling the forecast model to a new site. Overall, our scalability analysis shows promising results that simple models can be transferred to produce forecasts at additional sites. Altogether, our study advances our understanding of how forecast model time step and forecast horizon influence the forecastability of phytoplankton dynamics in aquatic systems and adds to the growing body of work regarding the predictability of ecological systems broadly.

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density.

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata. We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

Increased adoption of best practices in ecological forecasting enables comparisons of forecastability.

Near-term iterative forecasting is a powerful tool for ecological decision support and has the potential to transform our understanding of ecological predictability. However, to this point, there has been no cross-ecosystem analysis of near-term ecological forecasts, making it difficult to synthesize diverse research efforts and prioritize future developments for this emerging field. In this study, we analyzed 178 near-term (≤10-yr forecast horizon) ecological forecasting papers to understand the development and current state of near-term ecological forecasting literature and to compare forecast accuracy across scales and variables. Our results indicated that near-term ecological forecasting is widespread and growing: forecasts have been produced for sites on all seven continents and the rate of forecast publication is increasing over time. As forecast production has accelerated, some best practices have been proposed and application of these best practices is increasing. In particular, data publication, forecast archiving, and workflow automation have all increased significantly over time. However, adoption of proposed best practices remains low overall: for example, despite the fact that uncertainty is often cited as an essential component of an ecological forecast, only 45% of papers included uncertainty in their forecast outputs. As the use of these proposed best practices increases, near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to make significant contributions to our understanding of forecastability across scales and variables. In this study, we found that forecastability (defined here as realized forecast accuracy) decreased in predictable patterns over 1-7 d forecast horizons. Variables that were closely related (i.e., chlorophyll and phytoplankton) displayed very similar trends in forecastability, while more distantly related variables (i.e., pollen and evapotranspiration) exhibited significantly different patterns. Increasing use of proposed best practices in ecological forecasting will allow us to examine the forecastability of additional variables and timescales in the future, providing a robust analysis of the fundamental predictability of ecological variables.

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes.

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short-term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well-developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short- and long-term. We summarize the current understanding of storm-induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.

Chaoborus spp. Transport CH4 from the Sediments to the Surface Waters of a Eutrophic Reservoir, But Their Contribution to Water Column CH4 Concentrations and Diffusive Efflux Is Minor.

Chaoborus spp. (midge larvae) live in the anoxic sediments and hypolimnia of freshwater lakes and reservoirs during the day and migrate to the surface waters at night to feed on plankton. It has recently been proposed that Chaoborus take up methane (CH4) from the sediments in their tracheal gas sacs, use this acquired buoyancy to ascend into the surface waters, and then release the CH4, thereby serving as a CH4 "pump" to the atmosphere. We tested this hypothesis using diel surveys and seasonal monitoring, as well as incubations of Chaoborus to measure CH4 transport in their gas sacs at different depths and times in a eutrophic reservoir. We found that Chaoborus transported CH4 from the hypolimnion to the lower epilimnion at dusk, but the overall rate of CH4 transport was minor, and incubations revealed substantial variability in CH4 transport over space and time. We calculated that Chaoborus transport ∼0.1 mmol CH4 m-2 yr-1 to the epilimnion in our study reservoir, a very low proportion (<1%) of total CH4 diffusive flux during the summer stratified period. Our data further indicate that CH4 transport by Chaoborus is sensitive to water column mixing, Chaoborus density, and Chaoborus species identity.

Ecology under lake ice.

Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experience periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems, due to a historical research focus on summer 'growing seasons'. We executed the first global quantitative synthesis on under-ice lake ecology, including 36 abiotic and biotic variables from 42 research groups and 101 lakes, examining seasonal differences and connections as well as how seasonal differences vary with geophysical factors. Plankton were more abundant under ice than expected; mean winter values were 43.2% of summer values for chlorophyll a, 15.8% of summer phytoplankton biovolume and 25.3% of summer zooplankton density. Dissolved nitrogen concentrations were typically higher during winter, and these differences were exaggerated in smaller lakes. Lake size also influenced winter-summer patterns for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), with higher winter DOC in smaller lakes. At coarse levels of taxonomic aggregation, phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition showed few systematic differences between seasons, although literature suggests that seasonal differences are frequently lake-specific, species-specific, or occur at the level of functional group. Within the subset of lakes that had longer time series, winter influenced the subsequent summer for some nutrient variables and zooplankton biomass.

Assessing and Enhancing Environmental Sustainability: A Conceptual Review.

While sustainability is an essential concept to ensure the future of humanity and the integrity of the resources and ecosystems on which we depend, identifying a comprehensive yet realistic way to assess and enhance sustainability may be one of the most difficult challenges of our time. We review the primary environmental sustainability assessment approaches, categorizing them as either being design-based or those that employ computational frameworks and/or indicators. We also briefly review approaches used for assessing economic and social sustainability because sustainability necessitates integrating environmental, economic, and social elements. We identify the collective limitations of the existing assessment approaches, showing that there is not a consistent definition of sustainability, that the approaches are generally not comprehensive and are subject to unintended consequences, that there is little to no connection between bottom-up and top-down approaches, and that the field of sustainability is largely fragmented, with a range of academic disciplines and professional organizations pursuing similar goals, but without much formal coordination. We conclude by emphasizing the need for a comprehensive definition of sustainability (that integrates environmental, economic, and social aspects) with a unified system-of-systems approach that is causal, modular, tiered, and scalable, as well as new educational and organizational structures to improve systems-level interdisciplinary integration.

A syndrome of mutualism reinforces the lifestyle of a sloth.

Arboreal herbivory is rare among mammals. The few species with this lifestyle possess unique adaptions to overcome size-related constraints on nutritional energetics. Sloths are folivores that spend most of their time resting or eating in the forest canopy. A three-toed sloth will, however, descend its tree weekly to defecate, which is risky, energetically costly and, until now, inexplicable. We hypothesized that this behaviour sustains an ecosystem in the fur of sloths, which confers cryptic nutritional benefits to sloths. We found that the more specialized three-toed sloths harboured more phoretic moths, greater concentrations of inorganic nitrogen and higher algal biomass than the generalist two-toed sloths. Moth density was positively related to inorganic nitrogen concentration and algal biomass in the fur. We discovered that sloths consumed algae from their fur, which was highly digestible and lipid-rich. By descending a tree to defecate, sloths transport moths to their oviposition sites in sloth dung, which facilitates moth colonization of sloth fur. Moths are portals for nutrients, increasing nitrogen levels in sloth fur, which fuels algal growth. Sloths consume these algae-gardens, presumably to augment their limited diet. These linked mutualisms between moths, sloths and algae appear to aid the sloth in overcoming a highly constrained lifestyle.

High-frequency sensor data capture short-term variability in Fe and Mn concentrations due to hypolimnetic oxygenation and seasonal dynamics in a drinking water reservoir.

The biogeochemical cycles of iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) in lakes and reservoirs have predictable seasonal trends, largely governed by stratification dynamics and redox conditions in the hypolimnion. However, short-term (i.e., sub-weekly) trends in Fe and Mn cycling are less well-understood, as most monitoring efforts focus on longer-term (i.e., monthly to yearly) time scales. The potential for elevated Fe and Mn to degrade water quality and impact ecosystem functioning, coupled with increasing evidence for high spatiotemporal variability in other biogeochemical cycles, necessitates a closer evaluation of the short-term Fe and Mn dynamics in lakes and reservoirs. We adapted a UV-visible spectrophotometer coupled with a multiplexor pumping system and partial least squares regression (PLSR) modeling to generate high spatiotemporal resolution predictions of Fe and Mn concentrations in a drinking water reservoir (Falling Creek Reservoir, Vinton, VA, USA) equipped with a hypolimnetic oxygenation (HOx) system. We quantified hourly Fe and Mn concentrations during two transitional periods: reservoir turnover (Fall 2020) and HOx initiation (Summer 2021). Our sensor system successfully predicted mean Fe and Mn concentrations and trends, ground-truthed by grab sampling and laboratory analysis. During fall turnover, hypolimnetic Fe and Mn concentrations began to decrease more than two weeks before complete mixing of the reservoir, with rapid equalization of epilimnetic and hypolimnetic Fe and Mn concentrations in less than 48 h after full water column mixing. During the initiation of HOx in Summer 2021, Fe and Mn displayed distinctly different responses to oxygenation, as indicated by the rapid oxidation of soluble Fe but not soluble Mn. This study demonstrates that Fe and Mn concentrations are sensitive to changes in redox conditions induced by stratification and oxygenation, although their responses to these changes differ. We also show that high spatio-temporal resolution predictions of Fe and Mn can improve drinking water monitoring programs and reservoir management practices.

Uncertainty in projections of future lake thermal dynamics is differentially driven by lake and global climate models.

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital services, yet are facing increasing risks from global change. In particular, lake thermal dynamics have been altered around the world as a result of climate change, necessitating a predictive understanding of how climate will continue to alter lakes in the future as well as the associated uncertainty in these predictions. Numerous sources of uncertainty affect projections of future lake conditions but few are quantified, limiting the use of lake modeling projections as management tools. To quantify and evaluate the effects of two potentially important sources of uncertainty, lake model selection uncertainty and climate model selection uncertainty, we developed ensemble projections of lake thermal dynamics for a dimictic lake in New Hampshire, USA (Lake Sunapee). Our ensemble projections used four different climate models as inputs to five vertical one-dimensional (1-D) hydrodynamic lake models under three different climate change scenarios to simulate thermal metrics from 2006 to 2099. We found that almost all the lake thermal metrics modeled (surface water temperature, bottom water temperature, Schmidt stability, stratification duration, and ice cover, but not thermocline depth) are projected to change over the next century. Importantly, we found that the dominant source of uncertainty varied among the thermal metrics, as thermal metrics associated with the surface waters (surface water temperature, total ice duration) were driven primarily by climate model selection uncertainty, while metrics associated with deeper depths (bottom water temperature, stratification duration) were dominated by lake model selection uncertainty. Consequently, our results indicate that researchers generating projections of lake bottom water metrics should prioritize including multiple lake models for best capturing projection uncertainty, while those focusing on lake surface metrics should prioritize including multiple climate models. Overall, our ensemble modeling study reveals important information on how climate change will affect lake thermal properties, and also provides some of the first analyses on how climate model selection uncertainty and lake model selection uncertainty interact to affect projections of future lake dynamics.

Assessing opportunities and inequities in undergraduate ecological forecasting education.

Conducting ecological research in a way that addresses complex, real-world problems requires a diverse, interdisciplinary and quantitatively trained ecology and environmental science workforce. This begins with equitably training students in ecology, interdisciplinary science, and quantitative skills at the undergraduate level. Understanding the current undergraduate curriculum landscape in ecology and environmental sciences allows for targeted interventions to improve equitable educational opportunities. Ecological forecasting is a sub-discipline of ecology with roots in interdisciplinary and quantitative science. We use ecological forecasting to show how ecology and environmental science undergraduate curriculum could be evaluated and ultimately restructured to address the needs of the 21st century workforce. To characterize the current state of ecological forecasting education, we compiled existing resources for teaching and learning ecological forecasting at three curriculum levels: online resources; US university courses on ecological forecasting; and US university courses on topics related to ecological forecasting. We found persistent patterns (1) in what topics are taught to US undergraduate students at each of the curriculum levels; and (2) in the accessibility of resources, in terms of course availability at higher education institutions in the United States. We developed and implemented programs to increase the accessibility and comprehensiveness of ecological forecasting undergraduate education, including initiatives to engage specifically with Native American undergraduates and online resources for learning quantitative concepts at the undergraduate level. Such steps enhance the capacity of ecological forecasting to be more inclusive to undergraduate students from diverse backgrounds and expose more students to quantitative training.

Towards critical white ice conditions in lakes under global warming.

The quality of lake ice is of uppermost importance for ice safety and under-ice ecology, but its temporal and spatial variability is largely unknown. Here we conducted a coordinated lake ice quality sampling campaign across the Northern Hemisphere during one of the warmest winters since 1880 and show that lake ice during 2020/2021 commonly consisted of unstable white ice, at times contributing up to 100% to the total ice thickness. We observed that white ice increased over the winter season, becoming thickest and constituting the largest proportion of the ice layer towards the end of the ice cover season when fatal winter drownings occur most often and light limits the growth and reproduction of primary producers. We attribute the dominance of white ice before ice-off to air temperatures varying around the freezing point, a condition which occurs more frequently during warmer winters. Thus, under continued global warming, the prevalence of white ice is likely to substantially increase during the critical period before ice-off, for which we adjusted commonly used equations for human ice safety and light transmittance through ice.

Macrosystems EDDIE teaching modules significantly increase ecology students' proficiency and confidence working with ecosystem models and use of systems thinking.

Simulation models are increasingly used by ecologists to study complex, ecosystem-scale phenomena, but integrating ecosystem simulation modeling into ecology undergraduate and graduate curricula remains rare. Engaging ecology students with ecosystem simulation models may enable students to conduct hypothesis-driven scientific inquiry while also promoting their use of systems thinking, but it remains unknown how using hands-on modeling activities in the classroom affects student learning. Here, we developed short (3-hr) teaching modules as part of the Macrosystems EDDIE (Environmental Data-Driven Inquiry & Exploration) program that engage students with hands-on ecosystem modeling in the R statistical environment. We embedded the modules into in-person ecology courses at 17 colleges and universities and assessed student perceptions of their proficiency and confidence before and after working with models. Across all 277 undergraduate and graduate students who participated in our study, completing one Macrosystems EDDIE teaching module significantly increased students' self-reported proficiency, confidence, and likely future use of simulation models, as well as their perceived knowledge of ecosystem simulation models. Further, students were significantly more likely to describe that an important benefit of ecosystem models was their "ease of use" after completing a module. Interestingly, students were significantly more likely to provide evidence of systems thinking in their assessment responses about the benefits of ecosystem models after completing a module, suggesting that these hands-on ecosystem modeling activities may increase students' awareness of how individual components interact to affect system-level dynamics. Overall, Macrosystems EDDIE modules help students gain confidence in their ability to use ecosystem models and provide a useful method for ecology educators to introduce undergraduate and graduate students to ecosystem simulation modeling using in-person, hybrid, or virtual modes of instruction.

Iron and manganese fluxes across the sediment-water interface in a drinking water reservoir.

The development of low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in the hypolimnion of drinking water reservoirs during thermal stratification can lead to the reduction of oxidized, insoluble iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) in sediments to soluble forms, which are then released into the water column. As metals degrade drinking water quality, robust measurements of metal fluxes under changing oxygen conditions are critical for optimizing water treatment. In this study, we conducted benthic flux chamber experiments in summer 2018 to directly quantify Fe and Mn fluxes at the sediment-water interface under different DO and redox conditions of a eutrophic drinking water reservoir with an oxygenation system (Falling Creek Reservoir, Vinton, VA, USA). Throughout the experiments, we monitored DO, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), water temperature, and pH in the chambers and compared the metal fluxes in the chambers with time-series of fluxes calculated using a hypolimnetic mass balance method. Our results showed that metal fluxes were highly variable during the monitoring period and were sensitive to redox conditions in the water column at the sediment-water interface. The time-series changes in fluxes and relationship to redox conditions are suggestive of "hot moments", short time periods of intense biogeochemical cycling. Although the metal concentrations and fluxes are specific to this site, the approaches for examining relationships between metals, oxygen concentrations and overall redox conditions can be applied by water utilities to improve water quality management of Fe and Mn.

Calanoid copepod zooplankton density is positively associated with water residence time across the continental United States.

Inherent differences between naturally-formed lakes and human-made reservoirs may play an important role in shaping zooplankton community structure. For example, because many reservoirs are created by impounding and managing lotic systems for specific human purposes, zooplankton communities may be affected by factors that are unique to reservoirs, such as shorter water residence times and a reservoir's management regime, compared to natural lakes. However, the environmental factors that structure zooplankton communities in natural lakes vs. reservoirs may vary at the continental scale and remain largely unknown. We analyzed data from the 2007 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Lakes Assessment and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' National Inventory of Dams to compare large-bodied crustacean zooplankton communities (defined here as individuals retained by 0.243 mm mesh size) in natural lakes and reservoirs across the continental U.S. using multiple linear regressions and regression tree analyses. We found that large-bodied crustacean zooplankton density was overall higher in natural lakes compared to reservoirs when the effect of latitude was controlled. The difference between waterbody types was driven by calanoid copepods, which were also more likely to be dominant in the >0.243 mm zooplankton community in natural lakes than in reservoirs. Regression tree analyses revealed that water residence time was not a major driver of calanoid copepod density in natural lakes but was one of the most important drivers of calanoid copepod density in reservoirs, which had on average 0.5-year shorter water residence times than natural lakes. Reservoirs managed for purposes that resulted in shorter residence times (e.g., hydroelectric power) had lower zooplankton densities than reservoirs managed for purposes that resulted in longer residence times (e.g., irrigation). Consequently, our results indicate that water residence time may be an important characteristic driving differing large-bodied zooplankton dynamics between reservoirs and natural lakes.

Integrating fast and slow processes is essential for simulating human-freshwater interactions.

Integrated modeling is a critical tool to evaluate the behavior of coupled human-freshwater systems. However, models that do not consider both fast and slow processes may not accurately reflect the feedbacks that define complex systems. We evaluated current coupled human-freshwater system modeling approaches in the literature with a focus on categorizing feedback loops as including economic and/or socio-cultural processes and identifying the simulation of fast and slow processes in human and biophysical systems. Fast human and fast biophysical processes are well represented in the literature, but very few studies incorporate slow human and slow biophysical system processes. Challenges in simulating coupled human-freshwater systems can be overcome by quantifying various monetary and non-monetary ecosystem values and by using data aggregation techniques. Studies that incorporate both fast and slow processes have the potential to improve complex system understanding and inform more sustainable decision-making that targets effective leverage points for system change.