RESUMO
Survey data on migration aspirations, plans and intentions is important for understanding the drivers and dynamics of migration. Such data has been collected since the 1960s but has expanded massively in recent decades. This paper provides the first comprehensive overview of existing survey data in an inventory of 212 surveys with recorded metadata on geographic and temporal coverage, survey population, sample size, and other characteristics. 'A survey' is not always a clear-cut unit of analysis, but we adopted procedures that enable systematic comparisons, and identified surveys through systematic searches and follow-up investigation. The paper has three objectives. First, it facilitates reuse of survey data and secondary analysis, albeit with limitations in data access, which we document. Second, it helps consolidate a sprawling field and thereby contribute to methodological and theoretical strengthening. Third, it informs debates on the ethics, politics and biases of data collection by documenting broad patterns in the body of knowledge. The inventory of survey data on migration aspirations and related concepts gives migration researchers a new tool for locating existing data and strengthening the foundations for collecting new data.
RESUMO
Recent research suggests that climate variability and change significantly affect forced migration, within and across borders. Yet, migration is also informed by a range of non-climatic factors, and current assessments are impeded by a poor understanding of the relative importance of these determinants. Here, we evaluate the eligibility of climatic conditions relative to economic, political, and contextual factors for predicting bilateral asylum migration to the European Union-form of forced migration that has been causally linked to climate variability. Results from a machine-learning prediction framework reveal that drought and temperature anomalies are weak predictors of asylum migration, challenging simplistic notions of climate-driven refugee flows. Instead, core contextual characteristics shape latent migration potential whereas political violence and repression are the most powerful predictors of time-varying migration flows. Future asylum migration flows are likely to respond much more to political changes in vulnerable societies than to climate change.