Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework.

Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

Methodological challenges associated with patient responses to follow-up longitudinal surveys regarding quality of care.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate, using empirical data, methodological challenges associated with patient responses to longitudinal surveys regarding the quality of process of care and health status, including overall response rate, differential response rate, and stability of responses with time. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Primary patient self-report data were collected from 30,308 patients in 1996 and 13,438 patients in 1998 as part of a two-year longitudinal study of quality of care and health status of patients receiving care delivered by 63 physician organizations (physician groups) across three West Coast states. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed longitudinal, observational data collected by Pacific Business Group on Health (PBGH) from patients aged 18-70 using a four-page survey in 1996 and a similar survey in 1998 to assess health status, satisfaction, use of services, and self-reported process of care. A subset of patients with self-reported chronic disease in the 1996 study received an enriched survey in 1998 to more fully detail processes of care for patients with chronic disease. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We measured response rate overall and separately for patients with chronic disease. Logistic regression was used to assess the impact of 1996 predictors on response to the follow-up 1998 survey. We compared process of care scores without and with nonresponse weights. Additionally, we measured stability of patient responses over time using percent agreement and kappa statistics, and examined rates of gender inconsistencies reported across the 1996 and 1998 surveys. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 1998, response rates were 54 percent overall and 63 percent for patients with chronic disease. Patient demographics, health status, use of services, and satisfaction with care in 1996 were all significant predictors of response in 1998, highlighting the importance of analytic strategies (i.e., application of nonresponse weights) to minimize bias in estimates of care and outcomes associated with longitudinal quality of care and health outcome analyses. Process of care scores weighted for nonresponse differed from unweighted scores (p<.001). Stability of responses across time was moderate, but varied by survey item from fair to excellent. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal analyses involving the collection of data from the same patients at two points in time provide opportunities for analysis of relationships between process and outcomes of care that cannot occur with cross-sectional data. We present empirical results documenting the scope of the problems and discuss options for responding to these challenges. With increasing emphasis in the United States on quality reporting and use of financial incentives for quality in the health care market, it is important to identify and address methodological challenges that potentially threaten the validity of quality-of-care assessments.

Cash and compassion: profit status and the delivery of hospice services.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relationship of hospice profit status to patient selection and service delivery. DESIGN: We analyzed responses to the 1997 California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) annual home care and hospice survey. Outcomes included the percentages of patients with noncancer diagnoses, referred from long-term care, and with government payers; average length of stay (LOS); the intensity and skill mix of nursing services; and potential availability of chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Reduced models controlled for facility type, profit status, urbanicity, and patient-days. Complete models additionally controlled for patient gender, age, race/ethnicity, diagnosis, referral source, and primary reimbursement source. PARTICIPANTS: All 176 licensed California hospices in 1997. RESULTS: We report comparisons of for-profit and not-for-profit hospices as the absolute difference in percentage points between outcomes (e.g., a difference of 40% vs. 50% is reported as a 10 percentage point difference). In reduced models, for-profit hospices reported 17 percentage points more discharges with noncancer diagnoses, 15 percentage points more long-term care referrals, and 8 percentage points more patients with government payers. Average LOS did not differ by profit status. In reduced models, for-profit hospices delivered 0.20 more daily nursing visits on average; this difference was attributable to patient characteristics. The ratio of skilled to total nursing visits was 11 percentage points lower for for-profit hospices compared to not-for-profit hospices in reduced models (7 in complete models). Profit status was unrelated to the potential availability of chemotherapy and radiotherapy. CONCLUSION: For-profit hospices compared to not-for profit hospices serve a higher percentage of persons with noncancer diagnoses, residents of long-term care, and persons with government insurance. Differences in patterns of nursing services among hospices were related to patient characteristics. The potential availability of complex palliative services did not differ by profit status.

Trichotillomania: a review and case report.

Although patients with trichotillomania typically present to dermatologists, the diagnosis and treatment lie in the field of psychiatry. We report an unusual case of a 33-year-old woman with severe trichotillomania. We review common clinical and pathologic findings of this often chronic and socially debilitating disorder. In addition, we discuss treatment options for dermatologists and how collaboration with psychiatrists is the most effective management for these difficult-to-treat patients.

Impact of public reporting on access to coronary artery bypass surgery: the California Outcomes Reporting Program.

BACKGROUND: California launched the coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) Outcomes Reporting Program in 2003 for all nonfederal hospitals performing this procedure. The program provides annual public reports of risk-adjusted operative mortality rates by hospital and surgeon. However, the impact of this program on operative mortality and access to surgery for high-risk patients has not been clarified. METHODS: The cohort consisted of all isolated CABG cases from the California CABG Outcomes Reporting Program database for 2003 and 2006. We applied the same multivariable logistic risk adjustment model to each year to compute predicted and risk-adjusted operative mortality for isolated CABG by hospital and surgeons. Changes in surgical volume and observed, predicted, and risk-adjusted operative mortality were compared by quintiles of patients based on the predicted risk and among hospitals and surgeons between 2003 and 2006. RESULTS: Total volume of isolated CABG decreased by 26.5% from 2003 (N=21,276) to 2006 (N=15,647). The reduction in CABG volume between 2003 and 2006 was universal among hospitals and surgeons regardless of their performance status in 2003. The change in patient case mix for a majority of hospitals and surgeons was insignificant, and overall patient risk was stable (statewide predicted operative mortality rate for 2003, 3.06%; 95% confidence interval, 2.98 to 3.13; and for 2006, 3.05%; 95% confidence interval, 2.97 to 3.14). Yet, the statewide observed mortality declined from 2.90% in 2003 to 2.22% in 2006 (p=0.0001). Overall, the empiric odds ratio of operative death for 2006 patients was 24% lower than for 2003 patients. In 2006, patients with the highest predicted operative mortality risk (4th and 5th quintiles) had 35% and 26% lower odds of operative mortality, respectively, when compared with patients from 2003. CONCLUSIONS: Although total CABG volume decreased from 2003 to 2006 by almost 27%, patient case mix for most hospitals and surgeons was unchanged. Despite similar patient characteristics, the operative mortality for patients in the highest risk group was 26% lower in 2006 than in 2003. We found no evidence of decreased access to CABG for high-risk patients in California during the period of public reporting of isolated CABG outcomes.

Administrative versus clinical data for coronary artery bypass graft surgery report cards: the view from California.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare the performance of a risk model for isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery based on administrative data with that of a clinical risk model in predicting mortality and identifying hospital performance outliers. METHODS: Clinical data records from the California CABG Mortality Reporting Program for 38,230 isolated CABG patients undergoing surgery in 2000-2001 were linked to records in the California patient discharge data (PDD) abstract. Risk factors based on administrative data that mirrored clinical risk factors were developed using the condition present at admission indicator in the PDD to separate preoperative acute conditions from complications of surgery. Using logistic regression, risk model performance across data sources was compared along with hospital risk-adjusted mortality ranks and quality ratings. RESULTS: The administrative data showed lower prevalence of risk factors when compared with the clinical data. The clinical risk model had somewhat better discrimination (C = 0.824) than the administrative model (C = 0.799). The clinical model yielded 17 outliers and the administrative model 16 with agreement on 12 hospitals' status. Performance of the administrative risk model was minimally affected by removal of information from prior admissions and removal of risk factors not confirmed in the clinical record. CONCLUSIONS: Unique properties of the California administrative data, including the ability to distinguish acute preoperative risk factors from complications of surgery, permitted construction of an administrative risk model that predicts mortality on par with most published clinical models. Despite this, the administrative model identified slightly different hospital outliers, which may indicate somewhat biased assessments of hospital patient risk.

What is the concordance between the medical record and patient self-report as data sources for ambulatory care?

BACKGROUND: The validity of quality of care assessments relies upon data quality, yet little is known about the relative completeness and validity of data sources for evaluating the quality of care. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated concordance between ambulatory medical record and patient survey data. Levels of concordance, variations by type of item, sources of disagreement between data sources, and implications for quality of care assessment efforts are discussed. DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: This was an observational study that included 1270 patients sampled from 39 West Coast medical organizations with at least 1 of the following: diabetes, ischemic heart disease, asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or low back pain. MEASURES: Items from both data sources were grouped into 4 conceptual domains: diagnosis, clinical services delivered, counseling and referral, and medication use. We present total agreement, kappa, sensitivity, and specificity at the item and domain-levels and for all items combined. RESULTS: We found good concordance between survey and medical records overall, but there was substantial variation within and across domains. The worst concordance was in the counseling and referrals domain, the best in the medication use domain. Patients were able to report with good sensitivity on memorable items. CONCLUSIONS: Quality ratings are likely to vary in differing directions, depending on the data source used. The most appropriate data source for analyses of components of and overall quality of care must be considered in light of study objectives and resources. We recommend data collection from multiple sources to most accurately portray the patient and provider experience of medical care.

Accommodating ethnic diversity: a study of California hospice programs.

BACKGROUND: Studies have confirmed ethnic disparities in the use of hospice services and identified barriers that minorities face in accessing care. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether hospices provide services that might affect minority participation. RESEARCH DESIGN: We surveyed California hospices to determine whether programs use diverse health care providers and volunteers, offer translation, diverse spiritual care, or outreach materials and whether they plan to expand such services. Linking the data to the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development annual home care and hospice survey and 2000 US Census, we used multivariate linear regression to evaluate the relationship of program characteristics (profit status, size, chain/freestanding status, urban/rural location, and proportion of nonwhite residents) to services that might affect minority participation. SUBJECTS: One hundred of 149 programs that we surveyed responded. RESULTS: Many programs offer translation (81%), diverse providers (63%) and volunteers (64%), and culturally diverse spiritual services (52%). Few (21%) were conducting outreach, but 23/25 programs expanding services reported plans to improve outreach. In multivariate models adjusted for program size, chain status, profit status, urban/rural location, proportion of nonwhite residents, we found that larger hospices and those in ethnically diverse zip codes were more likely to offer such services. Larger hospices are more likely to report expanding such services. CONCLUSIONS: Many hospices are making efforts to accommodate ethnically diverse patients, but a substantial number are not. Culturally appropriate care and outreach should be addressed in efforts to improve the acceptability and experience of hospice care among minorities.