Patient No-Show Prediction: A Systematic Literature Review.

Nowadays, across the most important problems faced by health centers are those caused by the existence of patients who do not attend their appointments. Among others, these patients cause loss of revenue to the health centers and increase the patients' waiting list. In order to tackle these problems, several scheduling systems have been developed. Many of them require predicting whether a patient will show up for an appointment. However, obtaining these estimates accurately is currently a challenging problem. In this work, a systematic review of the literature on predicting patient no-shows is conducted aiming at establishing the current state-of-the-art. Based on a systematic review following the PRISMA methodology, 50 articles were found and analyzed. Of these articles, 82% were published in the last 10 years and the most used technique was logistic regression. In addition, there is significant growth in the size of the databases used to build the classifiers. An important finding is that only two studies achieved an accuracy higher than the show rate. Moreover, a single study attained an area under the curve greater than the 0.9 value. These facts indicate the difficulty of this problem and the need for further research.

A Probabilistic Patient Scheduling Model with Time Variable Slots.

One of the current challenges faced by health centers is to reduce the number of patients who do not attend their appointments. The existence of these patients causes the underutilization of the center's services, which reduces their income and extends patient's access time. In order to reduce these negative effects, several appointment scheduling systems have been developed. With the recent availability of electronic health records, patient scheduling systems that incorporate the patient's no-show prediction are being developed. However, the benefits of including a personalized individual variable time slot for each patient in those probabilistic systems have not been yet analyzed. In this article, we propose a scheduling system based on patients' no-show probabilities with variable time slots and a dynamic priority allocation scheme. The system is based on the solution of a mixed-integer programming model that aims at maximizing the expected profits of the clinic, accounting for first and follow-up visits. We validate our findings by performing an extensive simulation study based on real data and specific scheduling requirements provided by a Spanish hospital. The results suggest potential benefits with the implementation of the proposed allocation system with variable slot times. In particular, the proposed model increases the annual cumulated profit in more than 50% while decreasing the waiting list and waiting times by 30% and 50%, respectively, with respect to the actual appointment scheduling system.