Expansive linguistic representations to predict interpretable odor mixture discriminability.

Language is often thought as being poorly adapted to precisely describe or quantify smell and olfactory attributes. In this work, we show that semantic descriptors of odors can be implemented in a model to successfully predict odor mixture discriminability, an olfactory attribute. We achieved this by taking advantage of the structure-to-percept model we previously developed for monomolecular odorants, using chemical descriptors to predict pleasantness, intensity and 19 semantic descriptors such as "fish," "cold," "burnt," "garlic," "grass," and "sweet" for odor mixtures, followed by a metric learning to obtain odor mixture discriminability. Through this expansion of the representation of olfactory mixtures, our Semantic model outperforms state of the art methods by taking advantage of the intermediary semantic representations learned from human perception data to enhance and generalize the odor discriminability/similarity predictions. As 10 of the semantic descriptors were selected to predict discriminability/similarity, our approach meets the need of rapidly obtaining interpretable attributes of odor mixtures as illustrated by the difficulty of finding olfactory metamers. More fundamentally, it also shows that language can be used to establish a metric of discriminability in the everyday olfactory space.

Loss of nucleus accumbens low-frequency fluctuations is a signature of chronic pain.

Chronic pain is a highly prevalent disease with poorly understood pathophysiology. In particular, the brain mechanisms mediating the transition from acute to chronic pain remain largely unknown. Here, we identify a subcortical signature of back pain. Specifically, subacute back pain patients who are at risk for developing chronic pain exhibit a smaller nucleus accumbens volume, which persists in the chronic phase, compared to healthy controls. The smaller accumbens volume was also observed in a separate cohort of chronic low-back pain patients and was associated with dynamic changes in functional connectivity. At baseline, subacute back pain patients showed altered local nucleus accumbens connectivity between putative shell and core, irrespective of the risk of transition to chronic pain. At follow-up, connectivity changes were observed between nucleus accumbens and rostral anterior cingulate cortex in the patients with persistent pain. Analysis of the power spectral density of nucleus accumbens resting-state activity in the subacute and chronic back pain patients revealed loss of power in the slow-5 frequency band (0.01 to 0.027 Hz) which developed only in the chronic phase of pain. This loss of power was reproducible across two cohorts of chronic low-back pain patients obtained from different sites and accurately classified chronic low-back pain patients in two additional independent datasets. Our results provide evidence that lower nucleus accumbens volume confers risk for developing chronic pain and altered nucleus accumbens activity is a signature of the state of chronic pain.

Predictive Modeling of Huntington's Disease Unfolds Thalamic and Caudate Atrophy Dissociation.

BACKGROUND: Atrophy in the striatum is a hallmark of Huntington's disease (HD), including the period before clinical motor diagnosis (before-CMD), but it extends to other subcortical structures. The study of the covariation of these structures could improve the detection of disease-related longitudinal progression before-CMD, provide mechanistic insights of the disease, and potentially be used to obtain accurate prospective estimates of atrophy before-CMD and early after-CMD. METHODS: We analyzed data from 337 before-CMD individuals, 236 healthy control subjects, and 95 early after-CMD individuals from three studies, and we used nine subcortical regions volumes in two analyses. First, we discriminated before-CMD from healthy control trajectories by integrating volume changes from these regions. Second, we estimated prospective atrophy before-CMD and early after-CMD by considering the influence of a region's present volume over the future volume of another one. RESULTS: Before-CMD progression was robustly detected across studies. Indeed, detection of before-CMD progression improved when multiple structures were integrated, as opposed to analyzing the striatum alone, likely because of the reduced partial correlation between caudate and thalamic volume change before-CMD. Our multivariate atrophy prediction model found a thalamus-caudate association that is consistent with this pattern, which yields an improved caudate atrophy prediction in early after-CMD. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first attempt to validate before-CMD multivariate subcortical change detection across studies and to do multivariate prospective atrophy prediction in HD. These models achieve improved performance by detecting a dissociation between caudate and thalamic atrophy trajectories, and they provide a possible mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of HD. © 2022 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Impairments in odour detection and hedonic ratings of unpleasant smells in asymptomatic university students as SARS-Cov-2 emerged locally.

Sudden olfactory loss in the absence of concurrent nasal congestion is now a well-recognized symptom of COVID-19. We examined olfaction using standardized objective tests of odour detection, identification and hedonics collected from asymptomatic university students before and as SARS-CoV-2 emerged locally. Olfactory performance of students who were tested when the virus is known to be endemic (n = 22) was compared to students tested in the month prior to viral circulation (n = 25), a normative sample assessed during the previous 4 years (n = 272) and those tested in prior years during the same time period. Analyses showed significantly reduced odour detection for the virus exposed cohort compared to students tested before (t = 2.60; P = .01; d = 0.77; CI 0.17, 1.36) and to the normative sample (D = 0.38; P = .005). Odour identification scores were similar, but the exposed cohort rated odours as less unpleasant (P < .001, CLES = 0.77). Hyposmia increased 4.4-fold for students tested 2 weeks before school closure (N = 22) and increased 13.6-fold for students tested in the final week (N = 11). While the unavailability of COVID-19 testing is a limitation, this naturalistic study demonstrates week-by-week increase in hyposmia in asymptomatic students as a virus was circulating on campus, consistent with increasing airborne viral loads. The specific hedonic deficit in unpleasantness appraisal suggests a deficit in the TAAR olfactory receptor class, which conveys the social salience of odours. Assessment of odour detection and hedonic ratings may aid in early detection of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic persons.

Learning Brain Dynamics With Coupled Low-Dimensional Nonlinear Oscillators and Deep Recurrent Networks.

Many natural systems, especially biological ones, exhibit complex multivariate nonlinear dynamical behaviors that can be hard to capture by linear autoregressive models. On the other hand, generic nonlinear models such as deep recurrent neural networks often require large amounts of training data, not always available in domains such as brain imaging; also, they often lack interpretability. Domain knowledge about the types of dynamics typically observed in such systems, such as a certain type of dynamical systems models, could complement purely data-driven techniques by providing a good prior. In this work, we consider a class of ordinary differential equation (ODE) models known as van der Pol (VDP) oscil lators and evaluate their ability to capture a low-dimensional representation of neural activity measured by different brain imaging modalities, such as calcium imaging (CaI) and fMRI, in different living organisms: larval zebrafish, rat, and human. We develop a novel and efficient approach to the nontrivial problem of parameters estimation for a network of coupled dynamical systems from multivariate data and demonstrate that the resulting VDP models are both accurate and interpretable, as VDP's coupling matrix reveals anatomically meaningful excitatory and inhibitory interactions across different brain subsystems. VDP outperforms linear autoregressive models (VAR) in terms of both the data fit accuracy and the quality of insight provided by the coupling matrices and often tends to generalize better to unseen data when predicting future brain activity, being comparable to and sometimes better than the recurrent neural networks (LSTMs). Finally, we demonstrate that our (generative) VDP model can also serve as a data-augmentation tool leading to marked improvements in predictive accuracy of recurrent neural networks. Thus, our work contributes to both basic and applied dimensions of neuroimaging: gaining scientific insights and improving brain-based predictive models, an area of potentially high practical importance in clinical diagnosis and neurotechnology.

Automated Computer Vision Assessment of Hypomimia in Parkinson Disease: Proof-of-Principle Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: Facial expressions require the complex coordination of 43 different facial muscles. Parkinson disease (PD) affects facial musculature leading to "hypomimia" or "masked facies." OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine whether modern computer vision techniques can be applied to detect masked facies and quantify drug states in PD. METHODS: We trained a convolutional neural network on images extracted from videos of 107 self-identified people with PD, along with 1595 videos of controls, in order to detect PD hypomimia cues. This trained model was applied to clinical interviews of 35 PD patients in their on and off drug motor states, and seven journalist interviews of the actor Alan Alda obtained before and after he was diagnosed with PD. RESULTS: The algorithm achieved a test set area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71 on 54 subjects to detect PD hypomimia, compared to a value of 0.75 for trained neurologists using the United Parkinson Disease Rating Scale-III Facial Expression score. Additionally, the model accuracy to classify the on and off drug states in the clinical samples was 63% (22/35), in contrast to an accuracy of 46% (16/35) when using clinical rater scores. Finally, each of Alan Alda's seven interviews were successfully classified as occurring before (versus after) his diagnosis, with 100% accuracy (7/7). CONCLUSIONS: This proof-of-principle pilot study demonstrated that computer vision holds promise as a valuable tool for PD hypomimia and for monitoring a patient's motor state in an objective and noninvasive way, particularly given the increasing importance of telemedicine.

Natural Language Processing Reveals Vulnerable Mental Health Support Groups and Heightened Health Anxiety on Reddit During COVID-19: Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting mental health, but it is not clear how people with different types of mental health problems were differentially impacted as the initial wave of cases hit. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to leverage natural language processing (NLP) with the goal of characterizing changes in 15 of the world's largest mental health support groups (eg, r/schizophrenia, r/SuicideWatch, r/Depression) found on the website Reddit, along with 11 non-mental health groups (eg, r/PersonalFinance, r/conspiracy) during the initial stage of the pandemic. METHODS: We created and released the Reddit Mental Health Dataset including posts from 826,961 unique users from 2018 to 2020. Using regression, we analyzed trends from 90 text-derived features such as sentiment analysis, personal pronouns, and semantic categories. Using supervised machine learning, we classified posts into their respective support groups and interpreted important features to understand how different problems manifest in language. We applied unsupervised methods such as topic modeling and unsupervised clustering to uncover concerns throughout Reddit before and during the pandemic. RESULTS: We found that the r/HealthAnxiety forum showed spikes in posts about COVID-19 early on in January, approximately 2 months before other support groups started posting about the pandemic. There were many features that significantly increased during COVID-19 for specific groups including the categories "economic stress," "isolation," and "home," while others such as "motion" significantly decreased. We found that support groups related to attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, eating disorders, and anxiety showed the most negative semantic change during the pandemic out of all mental health groups. Health anxiety emerged as a general theme across Reddit through independent supervised and unsupervised machine learning analyses. For instance, we provide evidence that the concerns of a diverse set of individuals are converging in this unique moment of history; we discovered that the more users posted about COVID-19, the more linguistically similar (less distant) the mental health support groups became to r/HealthAnxiety (ρ=-0.96, P<.001). Using unsupervised clustering, we found the suicidality and loneliness clusters more than doubled in the number of posts during the pandemic. Specifically, the support groups for borderline personality disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder became significantly associated with the suicidality cluster. Furthermore, clusters surrounding self-harm and entertainment emerged. CONCLUSIONS: By using a broad set of NLP techniques and analyzing a baseline of prepandemic posts, we uncovered patterns of how specific mental health problems manifest in language, identified at-risk users, and revealed the distribution of concerns across Reddit, which could help provide better resources to its millions of users. We then demonstrated that textual analysis is sensitive to uncover mental health complaints as they appear in real time, identifying vulnerable groups and alarming themes during COVID-19, and thus may have utility during the ongoing pandemic and other world-changing events such as elections and protests.

An entropic barriers diffusion theory of decision-making in multiple alternative tasks.

We present a theory of decision-making in the presence of multiple choices that departs from traditional approaches by explicitly incorporating entropic barriers in a stochastic search process. We analyze response time data from an on-line repository of 15 million blitz chess games, and show that our model fits not just the mean and variance, but the entire response time distribution (over several response-time orders of magnitude) at every stage of the game. We apply the model to show that (a) higher cognitive expertise corresponds to the exploration of more complex solution spaces, and (b) reaction times of users at an on-line buying website can be similarly explained. Our model can be seen as a synergy between diffusion models used to model simple two-choice decision-making and planning agents in complex problem solving.

Reorganization of brain connectivity in obesity.

Global brain connectivity (GBC) identifies regions of the brain, termed "hubs," which are densely connected and metabolically costly, and have a wide influence on brain function. Since obesity is associated with central and peripheral metabolic dysfunction we sought to determine if GBC is altered in obesity. Two independent fMRI data sets were subjected to GBC analyses. The first data set was acquired while participants (n = 15 healthy weight and 15 obese) tasted milkshake and the second with participants at rest (n = 33 healthy weight and 28 obese). In the resting state and during milkshake consumption GBC is consistently decreased in the ventromedial and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, insula and caudate nucleus, and increased in brain regions belonging to the dorsal attention network including premotor areas, superior parietal lobule, and visual cortex. During milkshake consumption, but not at rest, additional decreases in GBC are observed in feeding-related circuitry including the insula, amygdala, anterior hippocampus, hypothalamus, midbrain, brainstem and somatomotor cortex. Additionally, GBC differences were not accounted for by age. These results demonstrate that obesity is associated with decreased GBC in prefrontal and feeding circuits and increased GBC in the dorsal attention network. We therefore conclude that global brain organization is altered in obesity to favor networks important for external orientation over those monitoring homeostatic state and guiding feeding decisions. Furthermore, since prefrontal decreases are also observed at rest in obese individuals future work should evaluate whether these changes are associated with neurocognitive impairments frequently observed in obesity and diabetes. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1403-1420, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Loss of Consciousness Is Associated with Stabilization of Cortical Activity.

What aspects of neuronal activity distinguish the conscious from the unconscious brain? This has been a subject of intense interest and debate since the early days of neurophysiology. However, as any practicing anesthesiologist can attest, it is currently not possible to reliably distinguish a conscious state from an unconscious one on the basis of brain activity. Here we approach this problem from the perspective of dynamical systems theory. We argue that the brain, as a dynamical system, is self-regulated at the boundary between stable and unstable regimes, allowing it in particular to maintain high susceptibility to stimuli. To test this hypothesis, we performed stability analysis of high-density electrocorticography recordings covering an entire cerebral hemisphere in monkeys during reversible loss of consciousness. We show that, during loss of consciousness, the number of eigenmodes at the edge of instability decreases smoothly, independently of the type of anesthetic and specific features of brain activity. The eigenmodes drift back toward the unstable line during recovery of consciousness. Furthermore, we show that stability is an emergent phenomenon dependent on the correlations among activity in different cortical regions rather than signals taken in isolation. These findings support the conclusion that dynamics at the edge of instability are essential for maintaining consciousness and provide a novel and principled measure that distinguishes between the conscious and the unconscious brain. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: What distinguishes brain activity during consciousness from that observed during unconsciousness? Answering this question has proven difficult because neither consciousness nor lack thereof have universal signatures in terms of most specific features of brain activity. For instance, different anesthetics induce different patterns of brain activity. We demonstrate that loss of consciousness is universally and reliably associated with stabilization of cortical dynamics regardless of the specific activity characteristics. To give an analogy, our analysis suggests that loss of consciousness is akin to depressing the damper pedal on the piano, which makes the sounds dissipate quicker regardless of the specific melody being played. This approach may prove useful in detecting consciousness on the basis of brain activity under anesthesia and other settings.

Perceptual basis of evolving Western musical styles.

The brain processes temporal statistics to predict future events and to categorize perceptual objects. These statistics, called expectancies, are found in music perception, and they span a variety of different features and time scales. Specifically, there is evidence that music perception involves strong expectancies regarding the distribution of a melodic interval, namely, the distance between two consecutive notes within the context of another. The recent availability of a large Western music dataset, consisting of the historical record condensed as melodic interval counts, has opened new possibilities for data-driven analysis of musical perception. In this context, we present an analytical approach that, based on cognitive theories of music expectation and machine learning techniques, recovers a set of factors that accurately identifies historical trends and stylistic transitions between the Baroque, Classical, Romantic, and Post-Romantic periods. We also offer a plausible musicological and cognitive interpretation of these factors, allowing us to propose them as data-driven principles of melodic expectation.

Multimodal fusion of brain signals for robust prediction of psychosis transition.

The prospective study of youths at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis, including neuroimaging, can identify neural signatures predictive of psychosis outcomes using algorithms that integrate complex information. Here, to identify risk and psychosis conversion, we implemented multiple kernel learning (MKL), a multimodal machine learning approach allowing patterns from each modality to inform each other. Baseline multimodal scans (n = 74, 11 converters) included structural, resting-state functional imaging, and diffusion-weighted data. Multimodal MKL outperformed unimodal models (AUC = 0.73 vs. 0.66 in predicting conversion). Moreover, patterns learned by MKL were robust to training set variations, suggesting it can identify cross-modality redundancies and synergies to stabilize the predictive pattern. We identified many predictors consistent with the literature, including frontal cortices, cingulate, thalamus, and striatum. This highlights the advantage of methods that leverage the complex pathophysiology of psychosis.

Using Large Language Models to Understand Suicidality in a Social Media-Based Taxonomy of Mental Health Disorders: Linguistic Analysis of Reddit Posts.

Background: Rates of suicide have increased by over 35% since 1999. Despite concerted efforts, our ability to predict, explain, or treat suicide risk has not significantly improved over the past 50 years. Objective: The aim of this study was to use large language models to understand natural language use during public web-based discussions (on Reddit) around topics related to suicidality. Methods: We used large language model-based sentence embedding to extract the latent linguistic dimensions of user postings derived from several mental health-related subreddits, with a focus on suicidality. We then applied dimensionality reduction to these sentence embeddings, allowing them to be summarized and visualized in a lower-dimensional Euclidean space for further downstream analyses. We analyzed 2.9 million posts extracted from 30 subreddits, including r/SuicideWatch, between October 1 and December 31, 2022, and the same period in 2010. Results: Our results showed that, in line with existing theories of suicide, posters in the suicidality community (r/SuicideWatch) predominantly wrote about feelings of disconnection, burdensomeness, hopeless, desperation, resignation, and trauma. Further, we identified distinct latent linguistic dimensions (well-being, seeking support, and severity of distress) among all mental health subreddits, and many of the resulting subreddit clusters were in line with a statistically driven diagnostic classification system-namely, the Hierarchical Taxonomy of Psychopathology (HiTOP)-by mapping onto the proposed superspectra. Conclusions: Overall, our findings provide data-driven support for several language-based theories of suicide, as well as dimensional classification systems for mental health disorders. Ultimately, this novel combination of natural language processing techniques can assist researchers in gaining deeper insights about emotions and experiences shared on the web and may aid in the validation and refutation of different mental health theories.

Fusion of biomedical imaging studies for increased sample size and diversity: a case study of brain MRI.

Data collection, curation, and cleaning constitute a crucial phase in Machine Learning (ML) projects. In biomedical ML, it is often desirable to leverage multiple datasets to increase sample size and diversity, but this poses unique challenges, which arise from heterogeneity in study design, data descriptors, file system organization, and metadata. In this study, we present an approach to the integration of multiple brain MRI datasets with a focus on homogenization of their organization and preprocessing for ML. We use our own fusion example (approximately 84,000 images from 54,000 subjects, 12 studies, and 88 individual scanners) to illustrate and discuss the issues faced by study fusion efforts, and we examine key decisions necessary during dataset homogenization, presenting in detail a database structure flexible enough to accommodate multiple observational MRI datasets. We believe our approach can provide a basis for future similarly-minded biomedical ML projects.

Speech and language patterns in autism: Towards natural language processing as a research and clinical tool.

Speech and language differences have long been described as important characteristics of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Linguistic abnormalities range from prosodic differences in pitch, intensity, and rate of speech, to language idiosyncrasies and difficulties with pragmatics and reciprocal conversation. Heterogeneity of findings and a reliance on qualitative, subjective ratings, however, limit a full understanding of linguistic phenotypes in autism. This review summarizes evidence of both speech and language differences in ASD. We also describe recent advances in linguistic research, aided by automated methods and software like natural language processing (NLP) and speech analytic software. Such approaches allow for objective, quantitative measurement of speech and language patterns that may be more tractable and unbiased. Future research integrating both speech and language features and capturing "natural language" samples may yield a more comprehensive understanding of language differences in autism, offering potential implications for diagnosis, intervention, and research.

Natural language processing in at-risk mental states: enhancing the assessment of thought disorders and psychotic traits with semantic dynamics and graph theory.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal communication has key information for mental health evaluation. Researchers have linked psychopathology phenomena to some of their counterparts in natural-language-processing (NLP). We study the characterization of subtle impairments presented in early stages of psychosis, developing new analysis techniques and a comprehensive map associating NLP features with the full range of clinical presentation. METHODS: We used NLP to assess elicited and free-speech of 60 individuals in at-risk-mental-states (ARMS) and 73 controls, screened from 4,500 quota-sampled Portuguese speaking citizens in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Psychotic symptoms were independently assessed with Structured-Interview-for-Psychosis-Risk-Syndromes (SIPS). Speech features (e.g.sentiments, semantic coherence), including novel ones, were correlated with psychotic traits (Spearman's-ρ) and ARMS status (general linear models and machine-learning ensembles). RESULTS: NLP features were informative inputs for classification, which presented 86% balanced accuracy. The NLP features brought forth (e.g. Semantic laminarity as 'perseveration', Semantic recurrence time as 'circumstantiality', average centrality in word repetition graphs) carried most information and also presented direct correlations with psychotic symptoms. Out of the standard measures, grammatical tagging (e.g. use of adjectives) was the most relevant. CONCLUSION: Subtle speech impairments can be grasped by sensitive methods and used for ARMS screening. We sketch a blueprint for speech-based evaluation, pairing features to standard thought disorder psychometric items.

Predictive dynamics of human pain perception.

While the static magnitude of thermal pain perception has been shown to follow a power-law function of the temperature, its dynamical features have been largely overlooked. Due to the slow temporal experience of pain, multiple studies now show that the time evolution of its magnitude can be captured with continuous online ratings. Here we use such ratings to model quantitatively the temporal dynamics of thermal pain perception. We show that a differential equation captures the details of the temporal evolution in pain ratings in individual subjects for different stimulus pattern complexities, and also demonstrates strong predictive power to infer pain ratings, including readouts based only on brain functional images.

Predicting placebo analgesia in patients with chronic pain using natural language processing: a preliminary validation study.

ABSTRACT: Patients with chronic pain show large placebo effects in clinical trials, and inert pills can lead to clinically meaningful analgesia that can last from days to weeks. Whether the placebo response can be predicted reliably, and how to best predict it, is still unknown. We have shown previously that placebo responders can be identified through the language content of patients because they speak about their life, and their pain, after a placebo treatment. In this study, we examine whether these language properties are present before placebo treatment and are thus predictive of placebo response and whether a placebo prediction model can also dissociate between placebo and drug responders. We report the fine-tuning of a language model built based on a longitudinal treatment study where patients with chronic back pain received a placebo (study 1) and its validation on an independent study where patients received a placebo or drug (study 2). A model built on language features from an exit interview from study 1 was able to predict, a priori, the placebo response of patients in study 2 (area under the curve = 0.71). Furthermore, the model predicted as placebo responders exhibited an average of 30% pain relief from an inert pill, compared with 3% for those predicted as nonresponders. The model was not able to predict who responded to naproxen nor spontaneous recovery in a no-treatment arm, suggesting specificity of the prediction to placebo. Taken together, our initial findings suggest that placebo response is predictable using ecological and quick measures such as language use.

Identifying Splitting Through Sentiment Analysis.

In Kernerg's Object Relations Theory model of personality pathology, splitting, the mutual polarization of aspects of experience, is thought to result in a failure of identity integration. The authors sought to identify a clinician-independent, automated measure of splitting by examining 54 subjects' natural speech. Splitting in these individuals, recruited from the community, was investigated and evaluated with a shortened version of the Structured Interview of Personality Organization (STIPO-R). A type of automated sentiment textual analysis called VADER was applied to transcripts from the section of the STIPO-R that probes identity integration. Higher variability in speech valence, more negative minimum valence, and more frequent shifts in valence polarity were associated with more severe identity disturbance. The authors concluded that the degree of splitting elicited during the description of self and others is related to the degree of identity disturbance, and to the degree of negativity and instability of these descriptions of self and others.

Speak and you shall predict: speech at initial cocaine abstinence as a biomarker of long-term drug use behavior.

Importance: Valid biomarkers that can predict longitudinal clinical outcomes at low cost are a holy grail in psychiatric research, promising to ultimately be used to optimize and tailor intervention and prevention efforts. Objective: To determine if baseline linguistic markers in natural speech, as compared to non-speech clinical and demographic measures, can predict drug use severity measures at future sessions in initially abstinent individuals with cocaine use disorder (iCUD). Design: A longitudinal cohort study (August 2017 - March 2020), where baseline measures were used to predict outcomes collected at three-month intervals for up to one year of follow-up. Participants: Eighty-eight initially abstinent iCUD were studied at baseline; 57 (46 male, age 50.7+/-7.9 years) came back for at least another session. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were self-reported symptoms of withdrawal, craving, abstinence duration and frequency of cocaine use in the past 90 days at each study session. The predictors were derived from 5-min recordings of vocal descriptions of the positive consequences of abstinence and the negative consequences of using cocaine; the baseline cocaine and other common drug use measures, demographic and neuropsychological variables were used for comparison. Results: Models using the non-speech variables showed the best predictive performance at three(r>0.45, P<2×10-3) and six months follow-up (r>0.37, P<3×10-2). At 12 months, the natural language processing-based model showed significant correlations with withdrawal (r=0.43, P=3×10-2), craving (r=0.72, P=5×10-5), days of abstinence (r=0.76, P=1×10-5), and cocaine use in the past 90 days (r=0.61, P=2×10-3), significantly outperforming the other models for abstinence prediction. Conclusions and Relevance: At short time intervals, maximal predictive power was obtained with models that used baseline drug use (in addition to demographic and neuropsychological) measures, potentially reflecting a slow rate of change in these measures, which could be estimated by linear functions. In contrast, short speech samples predicted longer-term changes in drug use, implying deeper penetrance by potentially capturing non-linear dynamics over longer intervals. Results suggest that, compared to the common outcome measures used in clinical trials, speech-based measures could be leveraged as better predictors of longitudinal drug use outcomes in initially abstinent iCUD, as potentially generalizable to other substance use disorders and related comorbidity.