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1.
Nonlinear Dyn ; 111(1): 927-949, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35757097

RESUMO

Controlling many infectious diseases, including SARS-Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), requires surveillance followed by isolation, contact-tracing and quarantining. These interventions often begin by identifying symptomatic individuals. However, actively removing pathogen strains causing symptomatic infections may inadvertently select for strains less likely to cause symptomatic infections. Moreover, a pathogen's fitness landscape is structured around a heterogeneous host pool; uneven surveillance efforts and distinct transmission risks across host classes can meaningfully alter selection pressures. Here, we explore this interplay between evolution caused by disease control efforts and the evolutionary consequences of host heterogeneity. Using an evolutionary epidemiology model parameterized for coronaviruses, we show that intense symptoms-driven disease control selects for asymptomatic strains, particularly when these efforts are applied unevenly across host groups. Under these conditions, increasing quarantine efforts have diverging effects. If isolation alone cannot eradicate, intensive quarantine efforts combined with uneven detections of asymptomatic infections (e.g., via neglect of some host classes) can favor the evolution of asymptomatic strains. We further show how, when intervention intensity depends on the prevalence of symptomatic infections, higher removal efforts (and isolating symptomatic cases in particular) more readily select for asymptomatic strains than when these efforts do not depend on prevalence. The selection pressures on pathogens caused by isolation and quarantining likely lie between the extremes of no intervention and thoroughly successful eradication. Thus, analyzing how different public health responses can select for asymptomatic pathogen strains is critical for identifying disease suppression efforts that can effectively manage emerging infectious diseases. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-022-07548-7.

2.
Socioecon Plann Sci ; 80: 101161, 2022 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34629563

RESUMO

Mesoamerica and the Caribbean form a region comprised by middle- and low-income countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic differently. Here, we ask whether the spread of COVID-19, measured using early epidemic growth rates (r), reproduction numbers (R t ), accumulated cases, and deaths, is influenced by how the 'used territories' across the regions have been differently shaped by uneven development, human movement and trade differences. Using an econometric approach, we found that trade openness increased cases and deaths, while the number of international cities connected at main airports increased r, cases and deaths. Similarly, increases in concentration of imports, a sign of uneven development, coincided with increases in early epidemic growth and deaths. These results suggest that countries whose used territory was defined by a less uneven development were less likely to show exacerbated COVID-19 patterns of transmission. Health outcomes were worst in more trade-dependent countries, even after controlling for the impact of transmission prevention and mitigation policies, highlighting how structural effects of economic integration in used territories were associated with the initial COVID-19 spread in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean.

3.
Malar J ; 19(1): 265, 2020 Jul 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32703206

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The present study provides a countrywide perspective of the malaria situation in Panamá over a long-term framework, with the purpose of identifying historical malaria resurgence events and their potential causes. METHODS: A descriptive-ecological study was conducted by analysing demographic and epidemiological annual malaria time series data in Panamá (1884-2019) using several data sources. Malaria intensity indicators were calculated during the study period. The effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on malaria transmission were also analysed using a retrospective analysis of malaria cases between 1957 and 2019. RESULTS: Several factors were identified responsible for malaria resurgence in Panamá, mostly related with Malaria Control Programme weakening. During the past 20 years (2000-2019) malaria has progressively increased in prevalence within indigenous settlements, with a predominance of male cases and a high proportion (15% of total cases) in children less than 5 years old. During this period, a significant and increasing proportion of the Plasmodium falciparum cases were imported. Retrospective analysis (1957-2019) evidenced that ENSO had a significant impact on malaria transmission dynamics in Panamá. CONCLUSIONS: Data analysis confirmed that although authorities have been successful in focalizing malaria transmission in the country, there are still neglected issues to be solved and important intercultural barriers that need to be addressed in order to achieve elimination of the disease by 2022. This information will be useful for targeting strategies by the National Malaria Elimination Programme.


Assuntos
El Niño Oscilação Sul , Política de Saúde/legislação & jurisprudência , Malária Falciparum , Malária Vivax , Saúde Pública/legislação & jurisprudência , Humanos , Malária Falciparum/prevenção & controle , Malária Falciparum/transmissão , Malária Vivax/prevenção & controle , Malária Vivax/transmissão , Panamá , Plasmodium falciparum/fisiologia , Plasmodium vivax/fisiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos
4.
Parasitology ; 147(9): 999-1007, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32343220

RESUMO

Costa Rica is near malaria elimination. This achievement has followed shifts in malaria health policy. Here, we evaluate the impacts that different health policies have had on malaria transmission in Costa Rica from 1913 to 2018. We identified regime shifts and used regression models to measure the impact of different health policies on malaria transmission in Costa Rica using annual case records. We found that vector control and prophylactic treatments were associated with a 50% malaria case reduction in 1929-1931 compared with 1913-1928. DDT introduction in 1946 was associated with an increase in annual malaria case reduction from 7.6% (1942-1946) to 26.4% (1947-1952). The 2006 introduction of 7-day supervised chloroquine and primaquine treatments was the most effective health policy between 1957 and 2018, reducing annual malaria cases by 98% (2009-2018) when compared with 1957-1968. We also found that effective malaria reduction policies have been sensitive to natural catastrophes and extreme climatic events, both of which have increased malaria transmission in Costa Rica. Currently, outbreaks follow malaria importation into vulnerable areas of Costa Rica. This highlights the need to timely diagnose and treat malaria, while improving living standards, in the affected areas.


Assuntos
Política de Saúde/história , Malária/história , Costa Rica , Política de Saúde/legislação & jurisprudência , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Malária/prevenção & controle , Malária/transmissão
5.
J Insect Sci ; 20(1)2020 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31916580

RESUMO

The western tree hole mosquito, Aedes sierrensis (Ludlow), is a common nuisance mosquito and vector of Dirofilaria immitis (Leidy), the etiologic agent of dog heartworm, in western North America. Here, we compare weekly mosquito collections made with Mosquito Magnet (MM) traps, Biogents Sentinel (BGS) traps, and Biogents Bowl (BGS Bowl) traps set in Salt Lake City, UT, from the start of June to mid-August 2017. We found the number of mosquitoes decreased with rainfall and temperature independently of trap type. The highest number of mosquitoes were caught by BGS traps baited with carbon dioxide (CO2) and BG lure, which collected 62% (n = 422) of all mosquitoes, followed by the MM at 31% (n = 213), and both the BGS and BG Bowl with BG lure had 3.5% (n = 24) each. Aedes sierrensis females were caught weekly at similar densities (mean ±â€…SD) in BGS with CO2 and lure (1.17 ±â€…2.93) and the MM (1.17 ±â€…2.66) traps during the study period. Given that BGS with CO2 and lure traps have several operational advantages over MM traps, including a quicker setup, smaller size, and lower cost, we consider BGS with CO2 and lure traps as the best suited surveillance tool to detect and remove Ae. sierrensis in the western United States and similar settings throughout North America.


Assuntos
Aedes , Controle de Mosquitos/métodos , Mosquitos Vetores , Vigilância da População/métodos , Animais , Dirofilaria immitis , Feminino , Masculino , Mosquitos Vetores/fisiologia , Dinâmica Populacional , Utah
6.
Malar J ; 17(1): 85, 2018 Feb 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29463259

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Malaria has historically been entrenched in indigenous populations of the República de Panamá. This scenario occurs despite the fact that successful methods for malaria elimination were developed during the creation of the Panamá Canal. Today, most malaria cases in the República de Panamá affect the Gunas, an indigenous group, which mainly live in autonomous regions of eastern Panamá. Over recent decades several malaria outbreaks have affected the Gunas, and one hypothesis is that such outbreaks could have been exacerbated by climate change, especially by anomalous weather patterns driven by the EL Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). RESULTS: Monthly malaria cases in Guna Yala (1998-2016) were autocorrelated up to 2 months of lag, likely reflecting parasite transmission cycles between humans and mosquitoes, and cyclically for periods of 4 months that might reflect relapses of Plasmodium vivax, the dominant malaria parasite transmitted in Panamá. Moreover, malaria case number was positively associated (P < 0.05) with rainfall (7 months of lag), and negatively with the El Niño 4 index (15 months of lag) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI (8 months of lag), the sign and magnitude of these associations likely related to the impacts of weather patterns and vegetation on the ecology of Anopheles albimanus, the main malaria vector in Guna Yala. Interannual cycles, of approximately 4-year periods, in monthly malaria case numbers were associated with the El Niño 4 index, a climatic index associated with weather and vegetation dynamics in Guna Yala at seasonal and interannual time scales. CONCLUSION: The results showed that ENSO, rainfall and NDVI were associated with the number of malaria cases in Guna Yala during the study period. These results highlight the vulnerability of Guna populations to malaria, an infection sensitive to climate change, and call for further studies about weather impacts on malaria vector ecology, as well as the association of malaria vectors with Gunas paying attention to their socio-economic conditions of poverty and cultural differences as an ethnic minority.


Assuntos
Anopheles/fisiologia , Mudança Climática , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Malária/transmissão , Mosquitos Vetores/fisiologia , Animais , Humanos , Malária/prevenção & controle , Panamá
7.
BMC Vet Res ; 14(1): 285, 2018 Sep 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30223839

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus transmission in cattle is primarily associated with Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat. This study analyses the association of weather fluctuations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the occurrence and magnitude, in terms of associated mortality, of cattle rabies outbreaks. Data from the 100 cattle rabies outbreaks recorded between 1985 and 2016 in Costa Rica were analyzed. Periodograms for time series of rabies outbreaks and the El Niño 4 index were estimated. Seasonality was studied using a seasonal boxplot. The association between epidemiological and climatic time series was studied via cross wavelet coherence analysis. Retrospective space-time scan cluster analyses were also performed. Finally, seasonal autoregressive time series models were fitted to study linear associations between monthly number of outbreaks, monthly mortality rates and the El Niño 4 index, temperature, and rainfall. RESULTS: Large rabies mortality occurred towards the Atlantic basin of the country. Outbreak occurrence and size were not directly associated with ENSO, but were sensitive to weather variables impacted by ENSO. Both, ENSO phases and rabies outbreaks, showed a similar 5 year period in their oscillations. Cattle rabies mortality and outbreak occurrence increased with temperature, whereas outbreak occurrence decreased with rainfall. These results suggest that special weather conditions might favor the occurrence of cattle rabies outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Further efforts are necessary to articulate the mechanisms underpinning the association between weather changes and cattle rabies outbreaks. One hypothesis is that exacerbation of cattle rabies outbreaks might be mediated by impacts of weather conditions on common vampire bat movement and access to food resources on its natural habitats. Further eco-epidemiological field studies could help to understand rabies virus transmission ecology, and to propose sound interventions to control this major veterinary public health problem.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , El Niño Oscilação Sul/efeitos adversos , Raiva/veterinária , Animais , Oceano Atlântico , Bovinos , Costa Rica/epidemiologia , Raiva/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Tempo (Meteorologia)
8.
Int J Biometeorol ; 60(11): 1727-1738, 2016 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27039106

RESUMO

It has been suggested that climate change may have facilitated the global expansion of invasive disease vectors, since several species have expanded their range as temperatures have warmed. Here, we present results from observations on two major global invasive mosquito vectors (Diptera: Culicidae), Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald), across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan, a location within their native range, where Aedes flavopictus Yamada, formerly a rare species, has now become dominant. Spatial abundance patterns of the three species suggest that temperature is an important factor influencing their adult distribution across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira. Temporal abundance patterns, by contrast, were associated with rainfall and showed signals of density-dependent regulation in the three species. The spatial and temporal analysis of abundance patterns showed that Ae. flavopictus and Ae. albopictus were negatively associated, even when accounting for differential impacts of weather and other environmental factors in their co-occurrence patterns. Our results highlight a contingency in the expansion of invasive vectors, the potential emergence of changes in their interactions with species in their native communities, and raise the question of whether these changes might be useful to predict the emergence of future invasive vectors.


Assuntos
Aedes , Espécies Introduzidas , Modelos Teóricos , Animais , Mudança Climática , Umidade , Japão , Densidade Demográfica , Temperatura
9.
J Med Entomol ; 52(6): 1203-12, 2015 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26336261

RESUMO

We studied the winter activity of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) from November 2008 to April 2009 in Bat Trang village of Hanoi, Vietnam. We selected 12 houses and collected: 1) adults with BG sentinel traps, 2) pupae from household water containers, and 3) eggs with ovitraps. Aedes albopictus adults, pupae, and eggs were not collected from early January to early February. Though the egg hatching probability tended to be initially high at longer day length, the maximum probability gradually shifted to shorter day length, as the observation period elapsed. When females were reared under long day length and their eggs were immersed 1 or 5 wk after oviposition, >50% of eggs hatched within 20 days. However, when females were reared under short day length and their eggs were immersed after 1 wk, hatching was suppressed for 60 days. When females were reared under short day length, the median hatching day occurred earlier in eggs kept dry for 5 and 10 wk after oviposition than in those dried for only 1 wk. This indicates that the extended dry periods accelerate egg hatching. Our results showed that hatchability gradually changed with day length, suggesting that selection for overwintering is not as strong relative to Ae. albopictus living in the temperate zone, where winter conditions are less favorable than in tropical and subtropical areas.


Assuntos
Aedes/fisiologia , Diapausa de Inseto , Animais , Feminino , Óvulo/fisiologia , Fotoperíodo , Estações do Ano , Vietnã
10.
J Am Mosq Control Assoc ; 30(4): 260-7, 2014 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25843131

RESUMO

Okinawa is the largest, most urbanized, and densely populated island in the Ryukyus Archipelago, where mosquito species diversity has been thoroughly studied. However, the south-central Okinawa mosquito fauna has been relatively poorly studied. Here, we present results from a mosquito faunal survey in urban environments of Nishihara city, south-central Okinawa. Mosquitoes were sampled biweekly, from April 2007 to March 2008, at 3 different environments: a forest preserve, an animal farm, and a water reservoir. We employed 4 mosquito collection methods: 1) oviposition traps; 2) light traps; 3) sweep nets; and 4) larval surveys of tree holes, leaf axils, and artificial water containers. We collected a total of 568 adults and 10,270 larvae belonging to 6 genera and 13 species, including 6 species of medical importance: Aedes albopictus, Armigeres subalbatus, Anopheles Hyrcanus group, Culex bitaeniorhynchus, Cx. quinquefasciatus, and Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Mosquito species composition was similar to data from previous studies in Okinawa Island. The flattening of the species accumulation curve suggests that our diversity sampling was exhaustive with light and oviposition traps, as well as the coincidence between the species richness we found in the field and estimates from the Chao2 index, a theoretical estimator of species richness based on species abundance. This study highlights the importance of combining several sampling techniques to properly characterize regional mosquito fauna and to monitor changes in the presence of mosquito species.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Culicidae/classificação , Culicidae/fisiologia , Distribuição Animal , Animais , Cidades , Culicidae/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Meio Ambiente , Feminino , Japão , Larva/classificação , Larva/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Larva/fisiologia
11.
Trop Med Infect Dis ; 9(4)2024 Apr 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38668551

RESUMO

Despite ongoing efforts for elimination, malaria continues to be a major public health problem in the Republic of Panama. For effective elimination, it is key that malaria foci and areas of high transmission are identified in a timely manner. Here, we study malaria transmission records for the 2015-2022 period, a time when cases have increased by a factor of ten. Using several methods to study spatial and spatiotemporal malaria confirmed case clusters at the level of localities, including LISA and scan, we found that cases are clustered across indigenous villages located within the autonomous indigenous regions of Ngäbe-Buglé, Guna Yala, and Embera, with the latter on the eastern border of Panama (with Colombia). We discuss the different factors that might be shaping the marked increase in malaria transmission associated with these clusters, which include an inflow of malaria-exposed migrating populations hoping to reach the USA, insufficient health services, and the lack of culturally sensitive actionable tools to reduce malaria exposure among the ethnically diverse and impoverished indigenous populations of Panama.

12.
Acta Trop ; 255: 107217, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38677361

RESUMO

Vector-borne diseases are a major source of morbidity in Panama. Herein, we describe historical usage patterns of synthetic insecticides to control arthropod disease vectors in this country. We examine the influence of interventions by vector control programs on the emergence of insecticide resistance. Chemical control has traditionally focused on two mosquito species: Anopheles albimanus, a major regional malaria vector, and Aedes aegypti, a historical vector of yellow fever, and current vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. Countrywide populations of An. albimanus depict hyperirritability to organochlorine insecticides administered by indoor residual spraying, although they appear susceptible to these insecticides in bioassays settings, as well as to organophosphate and carbamate insecticides in field tests. Populations of Ae. aegypti show resistance to pyrethroids, particularly in areas near Panama City, but the spread of resistance remains unknown in Ae. aegypti and Aedes albopictus. A One Health approach is needed in Panama to pinpoint the insecticide resistance mechanisms including the frequency of knockdown mutations and behavioral plasticity in populations of Anopheles and Aedes mosquitoes. This information is necessary to guide the sustainable implementation of chemical control strategies and the use of modern vector control technologies such as genetically modified mosquitoes, and endosymbiont Wolbachia-based biological control.


Assuntos
Inseticidas , Controle de Mosquitos , Mosquitos Vetores , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores , Animais , Humanos , Aedes/efeitos dos fármacos , Anopheles/efeitos dos fármacos , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Resistência a Inseticidas , Inseticidas/farmacologia , Controle de Mosquitos/métodos , Mosquitos Vetores/efeitos dos fármacos , Panamá , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores/prevenção & controle
13.
Lancet Planet Health ; 8(5): e334-e341, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38729673

RESUMO

The impacts of climate change on vector-borne diseases are uneven across human populations. This pattern reflects the effect of changing environments on the biology of transmission, which is also modulated by social and other inequities. These disparities are also linked to research outcomes that could be translated into tools for transmission reduction, but are not necessarily actionable in the communities where transmission occurs. The transmission of vector-borne diseases could be averted by developing research that is both hypothesis-driven and community-serving for populations affected by climate change, where local communities interact as equal partners with scientists, developing and implementing research projects with the aim of improving community health. In this Personal View, we share five principles that have guided our research practice to serve the needs of communities affected by vector-borne diseases.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores/epidemiologia , Humanos
14.
Eur J Ophthalmol ; 34(1): 71-78, 2024 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37700603

RESUMO

PURPOSE: To evaluate the safety and efficacy of the surgery of intracorneal ring segment implantation with 320° of arc (320-ICRS) in patients with advanced keratoconus stage IV and maximum keratometry (Kmax) above 60 D. METHODS: A prospective, interventional case series study evaluating 25 eyes of 19 patients with keratoconus stage IV and Kmax > 60D in which 320-ICRS were implanted using VisuMax® femtosecond. Uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA), corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA), keratometric values (mean - mean-K, flat - K1, and steep - K2), maximum keratometry (Kmax), tomographic astigmatism, refractive astigmatism and asphericity (Q) were assessed preoperatively and at 3, 6 and 12 months after the procedure. RESULTS: The UDVA improved from 1.03 ± 0.28 LogMAR (20/200) to 0.54 ± 0.21 LogMAR (20/60), (p < 0.001), the CDVA (with glasses) improved from 0.63 ± 0.29 LogMAR (20/80) to 0.31 ± 0.16 LogMAR (20/40),(p = 0.004), K1 reduced from 54.41 ± 4.46 D to 49.36 ± 4.11 D (p < 0.001), K2 reduced from 61.15 ± 4.37 D to 53.715 ± 4.05 D, (p < 0.001), mean-K reduced from 57.55 ± 4,17 D to 51.44 ± 3,94 D (p < 0.001), Kmax reduced from 69.80 ± 8.20 D to 63.43 ± 6.31 D (p < 0.001) and asphericity (Q) changed from -1.57 ± 0.35 to -0.77 ± 0.56 (p < 0.001). A total of 89.9% patients reached BCVA wearing scleral contact lens  0.2 LogMAR(20/25). CONCLUSION: 320-ICRS to treat advanced keratoconus appears to be an efficacious and safe procedure, being a surgical alternative to delay or even prevent corneal transplantation.


Assuntos
Astigmatismo , Transplante de Córnea , Ceratocone , Humanos , Ceratocone/cirurgia , Implantação de Prótese/métodos , Astigmatismo/cirurgia , Estudos Prospectivos , Substância Própria/cirurgia , Resultado do Tratamento , Topografia da Córnea , Refração Ocular , Próteses e Implantes
15.
Parasitology ; 140(5): 580-6, 2013 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23343880

RESUMO

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are a major tool to control malaria. Over recent years increased ITN coverage has been associated with decreased malaria transmission. However, ITN 'misuse' has been increasingly reported and whether this emergent behaviour poses a threat to successful malaria control and elimination is an open question. Here, we use a game theory mathematical model to understand the possible roles of poverty and malaria infection protection by individual and emerging 'community effects' on the 'misuse' of malaria bednets. We compare model predictions with data from our studies in Lake Victoria Islands (LVI), Kenya and Aneityum, Vanuatu. Our model shows that alternative ITN use is likely to emerge in impoverished populations and could be exacerbated if ITNs become ineffective or when large 'community effects' emerge. Our model predicted patterns of ITN use similar to the observed in LVI, where 'misuse' is common and the high ITN use in Aneityum, more than 20 years after malaria elimination in 1990. We think that observed differences in ITN use may be shaped by different degrees of economic and social development, and educational components of the Aneityum elimination, where traditional cooperative attitudes were strengthened with the malaria elimination intervention and post-elimination surveillance.


Assuntos
Culicidae/efeitos dos fármacos , Mosquiteiros Tratados com Inseticida , Modelos Teóricos , Animais , Teoria dos Jogos , Mosquiteiros Tratados com Inseticida/economia , Mosquiteiros Tratados com Inseticida/estatística & dados numéricos , Quênia , Malária/prevenção & controle , Controle de Mosquitos , Pobreza , Vanuatu
16.
J Infect Dis ; 205(12): 1885-91, 2012 Jun 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22492847

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Patterns of concerted fluctuation in populations-synchrony-can reveal impacts of climatic variability on disease dynamics. We examined whether malaria transmission has been synchronous in an area with a common rainfall regime and sensitive to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a global climatic phenomenon affecting weather patterns in East Africa. METHODS: We studied malaria synchrony in 5 15-year long (1984-1999) monthly time series that encompass an altitudinal gradient, approximately 1000 m to 2000 m, along Lake Victoria basin. We quantified the association patterns between rainfall and malaria time series at different altitudes and across the altitudinal gradient encompassed by the study locations. RESULTS: We found a positive seasonal association of rainfall with malaria, which decreased with altitude. By contrast, IOD and interannual rainfall impacts on interannual disease cycles increased with altitude. Our analysis revealed a nondecaying synchrony of similar magnitude in both malaria and rainfall, as expected under a Moran effect, supporting a role for climatic variability on malaria epidemic frequency, which might reflect rainfall-mediated changes in mosquito abundance. CONCLUSIONS: Synchronous malaria epidemics call for the integration of knowledge on the forcing of malaria transmission by environmental variability to develop robust malaria control and elimination programs.


Assuntos
Clima , Malária/epidemiologia , Malária/transmissão , África Oriental/epidemiologia , Humanos , Oceano Índico
17.
J Med Entomol ; 60(3): 564-574, 2023 05 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36964697

RESUMO

Quantifying synchrony in species population fluctuations and determining its driving factors can inform multiple aspects of ecological and epidemiological research and policy decisions. We examined seasonal mosquito and arbovirus surveillance data collected in Connecticut, United States from 2001 to 2020 to quantify spatial relationships in 19 mosquito species and 7 arboviruses timeseries accounting for environmental factors such as climate and land cover characteristics. We determined that mosquito collections, on average, were significantly correlated up to 10 km though highly variable among the examined species. Few arboviruses displayed any synchrony and significant maximum correlated distances never exceeded 5 km. After accounting for distance, mixed effects models showed that mosquito or arbovirus identity explained more variance in synchrony estimates than climate or land cover factors. Correlated mosquito collections up to 10-20 km suggest that mosquito control operations for nuisance and disease vectors alike must expand treatment zones to regional scales for operations to have population-level impacts. Species identity matters as well, and some mosquito species will require much larger treatment zones than others. The much shorter correlated detection distances for arboviruses reinforce the notion that focal-level processes drive vector-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and risk of spillover into human populations.


Assuntos
Infecções por Arbovirus , Arbovírus , Culicidae , Animais , Humanos , Clima , Controle de Mosquitos , Connecticut , Mosquitos Vetores
18.
Epidemics ; 45: 100723, 2023 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37935075

RESUMO

Infection with Trypanosoma cruzi, etiological agent of Chagas disease, is common in US government working dogs along the US-Mexico border. This 3145 km long border comprises four states: Texas (TX), New Mexico (NM), Arizona (AZ) and California (CA) with diverse ecosystems and several triatomine (a.k.a., kissing bug) species, primary vectors of T. cruzi in this region. The kissing bug (Heteroptera: Reduviidae) community ranging from CA to TX includes Triatoma protracta (Uhler), Triatoma recurva (Stål) and Triatoma rubida (Uhler) and becomes dominated by Triatoma gerstaeckeri Stål in TX. Here, we ask if T. cruzi infection dynamics in dogs varies along this border region, potentially reflecting changes in vector species and their vectorial capacity. Using reversible catalytic models of infection, where seropositivity can be lost, we estimated an R0 (Estimate ± S.E.) of 1.192 ± 0.084 for TX and NM. In contrast, seropositivity decayed to zero as dogs aged in AZ and CA. These results suggest that dogs are likely infected by T. cruzi during their training in western TX, with a force of infection large enough for keeping R0 above 1, i.e., the disease endemically established, in TX and NM. In AZ and CA, a lower force of infection, probably associated with different vector species communities and associated vectorial capacity and/or different lineages of T. cruzi, results in dogs decreasing their seropositivity with age.


Assuntos
Doença de Chagas , Triatoma , Animais , Cães , México/epidemiologia , Ecossistema , Insetos Vetores , Doença de Chagas/epidemiologia , Doença de Chagas/veterinária
19.
Parasitology ; 139(1): 14-25, 2012 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21996447

RESUMO

Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission.


Assuntos
Malária/epidemiologia , Modelos Biológicos , África Oriental/epidemiologia , Altitude , Mudança Climática , Humanos , Incidência , Malária/transmissão , Chuva , Estações do Ano , Temperatura
20.
Environ Entomol ; 51(3): 557-563, 2022 06 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35486381

RESUMO

Bess beetle species tend to be endemic and are useful indicators for the designation of conservation areas. However, little is known about the diversity and distribution of these beetles in El Salvador. Here, we present results from a study testing if species segregated along the altitudinal gradient of Montecristo National Park, El Salvador. The survey was done between September and December 2015. Beetles were collected at nine transects from three ecosystems, which included cloud, mixed-pine, and dry forests that occur along the altitudinal gradient of Montecristo. We sampled a total of 696 trees, finding 79 galleries of bess beetles, belonging to 13 species, which included: Arrox agassizi (Kaup), Chondrocephalus granulifrons (Bates), Chondrocephalus sp., Chondrocephalus salvadorae (Schuster), Heliscus eclipticus (Truqui), Odontotaenius striatopunctatus (Percheron), Ogyges politus (Hincks), Oileus sargi (Kaup), Passalus punctatostriatus Percheron, Passalus punctiger Lepeletier & Audinet-Serville, Verres hageni Kaup, Vindex sculptilis Bates, and Chondrocephalus gemmae Reyes-Castillo & Castillo which is a new species record for El Salvador. We found that species segregated by altitude, with the highest species richness observed in the cloud forest (n = 6), followed by the dry (n = 5) and mixed pine-oak (n = 4) forests. Most species were randomly associated with different tree species trunks, with the exception of V. hageni which was associated with trunks of Cecropia sp. Loefl. (Rosales: Urticaceae), and P. punctastriatus and P. punctiger which were associated with trunks of Cordia alliodora (Ruiz & Pav.) Oken (Boraginales: Boraginaceae). Our results show that species segregate by habitat, as only two species (C. gemmae and H. eclipticus) were found in more than one ecosystem.


Assuntos
Besouros , Pinus , Animais , Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , El Salvador , Florestas , Parques Recreativos , Árvores
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