Carvedilol Plus NUC for Patients With HBV-Compensated Cirrhosis Under Virological Suppression: A Randomized Open-Label Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Portal hypertension progression can be relieved after controlling the etiology of liver cirrhosis. Whether beta-blockers could additionally enhance the effects during treatment, particularly for small esophageal varices (EV), was unclear. This study aims to assess the efficacy of add-on carvedilol to delay EV progression during anti-hepatitis B virus (HBV) treatment in HBV-related cirrhosis. METHODS: This randomized controlled trial enrolled patients with virologically suppressed HBV-compensated cirrhosis and small/medium EV. The participants were randomly assigned to receive nucleos(t)ide analog (NUC) or carvedilol 12.5 mg plus NUC (1:1 allocation ratio). The primary end point was the progression rate of EV at 2 years of follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 238 patients (small EV, 77.3%) were randomized into 119 NUC and 119 carvedilol plus NUC (carvedilol [CARV] combination group). Among them, 205 patients (86.1%) completed paired endoscopies. EV progression rate was 15.5% (16/103) in the NUC group and 12.7% (13/102) in the CARV combination group (relative risk = 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.36-1.75, P = 0.567). Subgroup analysis on medium EV showed the CARV combination group had a more favorable effect in promoting EV regression (43.5% vs 13.1%, P = 0.022) than NUC alone, but not in small cases ( P = 0.534). The incidence of liver-related events (decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, or death/liver transplantation) within 2 years was similar between the 2 groups (11.2% vs 10.4%, P = 0.881). DISCUSSION: The overall results did not show statistically significant differences between the added carvedilol strategy and NUC monotherapy in preventing EV progression in patients with virologically suppressed HBV-compensated cirrhosis. However, the carvedilol-added approach might offer improved outcomes specifically for patients with medium EV (NCT03736265).

Development and validation of a machine learning-based model for varices screening in compensated cirrhosis (CHESS2001): an international multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prevalence of high-risk varices (HRV) is low among compensated cirrhotic patients undergoing EGD. Our study aimed to identify a novel machine learning (ML)-based model, named ML EGD, for ruling out HRV and avoiding unnecessary EGDs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: An international cohort from 17 institutions from China, Singapore, and India were enrolled (CHESS2001). The variables with the top 3 importance scores (liver stiffness, platelet count, and total bilirubin) were selected by the Shapley additive explanation and input into a light gradient-boosting machine algorithm to develop ML EGD for identification of HRV. Furthermore, we built a web-based calculator for ML EGD, which is free with open access (http://www.pan-chess.cn/calculator/MLEGD_score). Unnecessary EGDs that were not performed and the rates of missed HRV were used to assess the efficacy and safety for varices screening. RESULTS: Of 2794 enrolled patients, 1283 patients formed a real-world cohort from 1 university hospital in China used to develop and internally validate the performance of ML EGD for varices screening. They were randomly assigned into the training (n = 1154) and validation (n = 129) cohorts with a ratio of 9:1. In the training cohort, ML EGD spared 607 (52.6%) unnecessary EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 3.6%. In the validation cohort, ML EGD spared 75 (58.1%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 1.4%. To externally test the performance of ML EGD, 966 patients from 14 university hospitals in China (test cohort 1) and 545 from 2 hospitals in Singapore and India (test cohort 2) comprised the 2 test cohorts. In test cohort 1, ML EGD spared 506 (52.4%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 2.8%. In test cohort 2, ML EGD spared 224 (41.1%) EGDs with a missed HRV rate of 3.1%. When compared with the Baveno VI criteria, ML EGD spared more screening EGDs in all cohorts (training cohort, 52.6% vs 29.4%; validation cohort, 58.1% vs 44.2%; test cohort 1, 52.4% vs 26.5%; test cohort 2, 41.1% vs 21.1%, respectively; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a novel model based on liver stiffness, platelet count, and total bilirubin, named ML EGD, as a free web-based calculator. ML EGD could efficiently help rule out HRV and avoid unnecessary EGDs in patients with compensated cirrhosis. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT04307264.).

Optimal allocation of agricultural water and land resources integrated with virtual water trade: A perspective on spatial virtual water coordination.

Agricultural production consumes the majority of global freshwater resources. The worsening water scarcity has imposed significant stress on agricultural production when regions seek food self-sufficiency. To seek optimal allocation of spatial agricultural water and land resources in each water function zone of the objective region, a multi-objective optimization model was developed to tackle the trade-offs between the water-saving objective and the economic benefit objective considering virtual water trade (VWT). The cultivated area of each crop in each water function zone was taken into account as the decision variable, while a set of strong constraints were used to restrict land resources and water availability. Then, a decomposition-simplex method aggregation algorithm (DSMA) was proposed to solve this nonlinear, bounding-constrained, and multi-objective optimization model. Based on the quantitative analysis of the spatial blue and green virtual water in each agricultural product, the proposed methodology was applied to a real-world, provincial-scale region in China (i.e., Jiangsu Province). The optimized results provided 18 Pareto solutions to reallocate the land resources in the 21 IV-level water function zones of Jiangsu Province, considering four major rainy-season crops and two dry-season crops. Compared to the actual scenario, the superior scheme increased by 7.95% (5.6 × 109 RMB) for economic trade and decreased by 1.77% (2.0 × 109 m3) for agricultural water consumption. It was mainly because the potential of spatial blue and green virtual water in Jiangsu was fully exploited by improving spatial land resource allocation. The food security of Jiangsu could be guaranteed by achieving self-sufficiency in the superior scheme, and the total VWT in the optimal scheme was 2.2 times more than the actual scenario. The results provided a systematic decision-support methodology from the perspective of spatial virtual water coordination, yet, the methodology is widely applicable.

Screening varices in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis on antiviral therapy: Platelet alone or together with LSM.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-invasive assessment criteria to rule out high-risk varices (HRV) in compensated hepatitis B virus (HBV) cirrhosis on antiviral therapy remains unclear. METHODS: HBV-related compensated cirrhotic patients who underwent screening endoscopy during antiviral therapy were enrolled and randomly divided into the derivation and validation sets. HRV were defined as medium to large varices or small varices with red signs. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were used to determine the parameters associated with HRV. RESULTS: A total of 436 HBV-related compensated cirrhotic patients screened for varices were enrolled, the median duration of antiviral therapy was 4 years (IQR: 2.5-5.5 years). In the derivation set (N = 290, 17.2% with HRV), only platelet (PLT) count (OR = 0.972, 95% CI 0.961-0.984, P < .05) was independently associated with HRV, whereas liver stiffness measurement was not associated with the presence of HRV. With a PLT count cut-off value of 105 × 109 /L, unnecessary endoscopies could be spared in 56.9% patients, with a 3.6%. risk of missing HRV. In the validation cohort (N = 146, 16.4% with HRV), the proportion of patients that could safely spare endoscopies (61.0%) identified by this PLT count cut-off value was higher than that obtained by using Baveno VI criteria (34.9%), with an acceptable risk of missing HRV (3.4%). CONCLUSION: Compared with the 'Baveno VI criteria or beyond' criteria, PLT count higher than 105 × 109 /L could safely spare more screening endoscopies without increasing the risk of missing HRV in patients with HBV-related compensated cirrhosis on antiviral therapy.

Clinical Features of COVID-19-Related Liver Functional Abnormality.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Some patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection have abnormal liver function. We aimed to clarify the features of COVID-19-related liver damage to provide references for clinical treatment. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, single-center study of 148 consecutive patients with confirmed COVID-19 (73 female, 75 male; mean age, 50 years) at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center from January 20 through January 31, 2020. Patient outcomes were followed until February 19, 2020. Patients were analyzed for clinical features, laboratory parameters (including liver function tests), medications, and length of hospital stay. Abnormal liver function was defined as increased levels of alanine and aspartate aminotransferase, gamma glutamyltransferase, alkaline phosphatase, and total bilirubin. RESULTS: Fifty-five patients (37.2%) had abnormal liver function at hospital admission; 14.5% of these patients had high fever (14.5%), compared with 4.3% of patients with normal liver function (P = .027). Patients with abnormal liver function were more likely to be male, and had higher levels of procalcitonin and C-reactive protein. There was no statistical difference between groups in medications taken before hospitalization; a significantly higher proportion of patients with abnormal liver function (57.8%) had received lopinavir/ritonavir after admission compared to patients with normal liver function (31.3%). Patients with abnormal liver function had longer mean hospital stays (15.09 ± 4.79 days) than patients with normal liver function (12.76 ± 4.14 days) (P = .021). CONCLUSIONS: More than one third of patients admitted to the hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection have abnormal liver function, and this is associated with longer hospital stay. A significantly higher proportion of patients with abnormal liver function had received lopinavir/ritonavir after admission; these drugs should be given with caution.

Clinical characteristics in patients with SARS-CoV-2/HBV co-infection.

COVID-19 has become a global pandemic and garnered international attention. Although the clinical features of COVID-19-related liver injury have been investigated, there have been no reports and studies on the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 patients co-infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV). This study aimed to evaluate whether SARS-CoV-2/HBV co-infection could influence liver function and the disease outcome. All 326 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center (The COVID-19 designated hospital in Shanghai, China) from 20 January 2020 to 24 February 2020 were enrolled and followed up until February 29 in this study. The clinical, laboratory data and the length of stay were collected and analysed retrospectively. 20 patients with HBV co-infection (6.1%) and 306 patients (93.9%) without HBV infection showed no differences in the level of liver function parameters. However, compared with HBsAg- patients [145.4 mg/L (103.9-179.2)], HBsAg + patients had a lower level of prealbumin [(102.3 mg/L (76.22-160.2), P = .0367]. There were also no significant differences for the discharge rate and the length of stay between two groups. Taken together, we found no evidence that SARS-CoV-2/HBV co-infection could aggravate liver injury or extend duration of hospitalization.

Early steep decline of liver stiffness predicts histological reversal of fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir.

It is unknown whether dynamic changes of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) can predict the reversibility of fibrosis. Therefore, we evaluated the utility of LSM changes in predicting histological changes of fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on antiviral therapy. In a prospective cohort of CHB patients treated with entecavir, virological measurement and biochemical measurement along with LSM were measured at baseline and every 6 months. Liver biopsies were conducted at baseline and month 18 of treatment. Fibrosis regression was defined by the following two criteria: (a) Ishak score decrease ≥1 stage, (b) Ishak score decrease ≥1 stage or predominantly regressive by post-treatment PIR classification. The dynamic changes of LSM and its predictive value for histological reversibility were evaluated with piecewise linear mixed-effects model and ROC analysis. We found that at month 18 of antiviral therapy, liver fibrosis was reserved in 86 of 212 (40.6%) CHB patients by Ishak reversal criterion. Overall, a decline in LSM was associated with attenuation of Ishak score. The rate of LSM decline in the first 6 months was significantly faster in patients with fibrosis reversal (ΔLSM%Ishak  = -2.19%/month, P = 0.0025; ΔLSM%Ishak/PIR  = -2.56%/month, P = 0.0004). The predictive model based on baseline FIB-4 and Ishak score as well as baseline LSM, PLT, albumin and their changes during the first 6 months could predict histological reversal (AUROCIshak  = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.67-0.80; AUROCIshak/PIR  = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.74-0.87). We conclude that in CHB patients, changes in LSM during the first 6 months of entecavir therapy can predict histological reversibility of liver fibrosis at month 18 of antiviral therapy.

On-treatment changes of liver stiffness at week 26 could predict 2-year clinical outcomes in HBV-related compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is unclear whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) dynamic changes after anti-HBV treatment could predict the risk of liver-related events (LREs), particularly in patients with HBV-related compensated cirrhosis. METHODS: Treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related compensated cirrhosis were enrolled. All patients were under entecavir-based antiviral therapy, and followed up every 26 weeks for 2 years. The association between LSM and LREs was analysed by Cox proportional hazard model and Harrell C-index analysis. RESULTS: A total of 438 patients were included in the study. At the follow-up of 104 weeks, LREs developed in 33/438 (7.8%) patients, including 16 episodes of decompensation, 18 HCC and 3 deaths. The median LSM remained high from 20.9, 18.6, 20.4 to 20.3 Kpa at week 0, 26, 52 and 78 among patients with LREs, whereas the LSM decreased from 17.8, 12.3, 10.6 to 10.2 Kpa in patients without LREs respectively. Percentage changes of LSM at 26 weeks from baseline were significantly associated with LREs (excluding 11 cases occurred within the first 26 weeks), with a crude hazard ratio of 2.94 (95% CI: 1.73-5.00) and an albumin-adjusted hazard ratio of 2.47 (95% CI: 1.49-4.11). The Harrell C-index of these 2 models for predicting 2-year LREs were 0.68 (95% CI: 0.56-0.80) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.65-0.85) respectively. Nomograms were developed to identify individuals at high risk for point-of-care application. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic changes of LSM alone, or combined with baseline albumin, could predict LREs in patients with HBV-related compensated cirrhosis during antiviral therapy.