Predictors of 1-year mortality after adult lung transplantation: Systematic review and meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic factors in lung transplantation are those variables that are associated with transplant outcomes. Knowledge of donor and recipient prognostic variables can aid in the optimal allocation of donor lungs to transplant recipients and can also inform post-operative discussions with patients about prognosis. Current research findings related to prognostic factors in lung transplantation are inconsistent and the relative importance of various factors is unclear. This review aims to provide the best possible estimates of the association between putative prognostic variables and 1-year all-cause mortality in adult lung transplant recipients. METHODS: We searched 5 bibliographic databases for studies assessing the associations between putative predictors (related to lung donors, recipients, or the transplant procedure) and 1-year recipient mortality. We pooled data across studies when justified and utilized GRADE methodology to assess the certainty in the evidence. RESULTS: From 72 eligible studies (2002-2020), there were 34 recipient variables, 4 donor variables, 10 procedural variables, and 7 post-transplant complication variables that were amenable to a meta-analysis. With a high degree of certainty in the evidence only post-transplant need for extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.79-2.04) predicted 1-year mortality. No donor variables appeared to predict transplant outcome with high or even moderate certainty. CONCLUSION: Across the range of contemporary donors and recipients that clinicians accept for lung transplantation, this review, with high certainty, found 1 prognostic factor that predicted 1-year mortality, and 37 additional factors with a moderate degree of certainty. The lack of prognostic significance for some widely accepted factors (e.g., donor smoking, age) likely relates to existing limits in the range of these variables at the time of donor and recipient selection.

Risk Factors for 1-Year Graft Loss After Kidney Transplantation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: With expansion of the pool of kidney grafts, through the use of higher-risk donors, and increased attention to donor management strategies, the 1-year graft survival rate is subject to change. It is, therefore, useful to elucidate 1-year graft survival rates by dissecting the characteristics of the low-risk and high-risk kidney transplant cases. The objective of our study was to evaluate factors purported to influence the risk of 1-year graft loss in kidney transplant recipients. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We searched bibliographic databases from 2000 to 2017 and included observational studies that measured the association between donor, recipient, the transplant operation, or early postoperative complications, and 1-year death-censored graft loss. RESULTS: We identified 35 eligible primary studies, with 20 risk factors amenable to meta-analysis. Six factors were associated with graft loss, with moderate to high degree of certainty: donor age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 per 10-year increase; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.04 to 1.18), extended criteria donors (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.42), deceased donors (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.82), number of HLA mismatches (HR, 1.08 per one mismatch increase; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.09), recipient age (HR, 1.17 per 10-year increase; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.25), and delayed graft function (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.46 to 2.47) as risk factors for 1-year graft loss. Pooled analyses also excluded, with a high degree of certainty, any associations of cold ischemia time, recipient race, pretransplant body mass index, diabetes, and hypertension with 1-year graft loss. CONCLUSIONS: Recipient age, donor age, standard versus extended criteria donor, living versus deceased donor, HLA mismatch, and delayed graft function all predicted 1-year graft survival. The effect of each risk factor is small.