Climate change-induced population pressure drives high rates of lethal violence in the Prehispanic central Andes.

Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of­and the interaction between­climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry 14C-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 14C dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity­whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition­can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability.

Ecological variation and institutionalized inequality in hunter-gatherer societies.

Research examining institutionalized hierarchy tends to focus on chiefdoms and states, while its emergence among small-scale societies remains poorly understood. Here, we test multiple hypotheses for institutionalized hierarchy, using environmental and social data on 89 hunter-gatherer societies along the Pacific coast of North America. We utilize statistical models capable of identifying the main correlates of sustained political and economic inequality, while controlling for historical and spatial dependence. Our results indicate that the most important predictors relate to spatiotemporal distribution of resources. Specifically, higher reliance on and ownership of clumped aquatic (primarily salmon) versus wild plant resources is associated with greater political-economic inequality, measuring the latter as a composite of internal social ranking, unequal access to food resources, and presence of slavery. Variables indexing population pressure, scalar stress, and intergroup conflict exhibit little or no correlation with variation in inequality. These results are consistent with models positing that hierarchy will emerge when individuals or coalitions (e.g., kin groups) control access to economically defensible, highly clumped resource patches, and use this control to extract benefits from subordinates, such as productive labor and political allegiance in a patron-client system. This evolutionary ecological explanation might illuminate how and why institutionalized hierarchy emerges among many small-scale societies.

Historic and bioarchaeological evidence supports late onset of post-Columbian epidemics in Native California.

Catastrophic decline of Indigenous populations in the Americas following European contact is one of the most severe demographic events in the history of humanity, but uncertainty persists about the timing and scale of the collapse, which has implications for not only Indigenous history but also the understanding of historical ecology. A long-standing hypothesis that a continent-wide pandemic broke out immediately upon the arrival of Spanish seafarers has been challenged in recent years by a model of regional epidemics erupting asynchronously, causing different rates of population decline in different areas. Some researchers have suggested that, in California, significant depopulation occurred during the first two centuries of the post-Columbus era, which led to a "rebound" in native flora and fauna by the time of sustained European contact after 1769. Here, we combine a comprehensive prehistoric osteological dataset (n = 10,256 individuals) with historic mission mortuary records (n = 23,459 individuals) that together span from 3050 cal BC to AD 1870 to systematically evaluate changes in mortality over time by constructing life tables and conducting survival analysis of age-at-death records. Results show that a dramatic shift in the shape of mortality risk consistent with a plague-like population structure began only after sustained contact with European invaders, when permanent Spanish settlements and missions were established ca. AD 1770. These declines reflect the syndemic effects of newly introduced diseases and the severe cultural disruption of Indigenous lifeways by the Spanish colonial system.

Plant species richness at archaeological sites suggests ecological legacy of Indigenous subsistence on the Colorado Plateau.

Humans have both intentional and unintentional impacts on their environment, yet identifying the enduring ecological legacies of past small-scale societies remains difficult, and as such, evidence is sparse. The present study found evidence of an ecological legacy that persists today within an semiarid ecosystem of western North America. Specifically, the richness of ethnographically important plant species is strongly associated with archaeological complexity and ecological diversity at Puebloan sites in a region known as Bears Ears on the Colorado Plateau. A multivariate model including both environmental and archaeological predictors explains 88% of the variation in ethnographic species richness (ESR), with growing degree days and archaeological site complexity having the strongest effects. At least 31 plant species important to five tribal groups (Navajo, Hopi, Zuni, Ute Mountain Ute, and Apache), including the Four Corners potato (Solanum jamesii), goosefoot (Chenopodium sp.), wolfberry (Lycium pallidum), and sumac (Rhus trilobata), occurred at archaeological sites, despite being uncommon across the wider landscape. Our results reveal a clear ecological legacy of past human behavior: even when holding environmental variables constant, ESR increases significantly as a function of past investment in habitation and subsistence. Consequently, we suggest that propagules of some species were transported and cultivated, intentionally or not, establishing populations that persist to this day. Ensuring persistence will require tribal input for conserving and restoring archaeo-ecosystems containing "high-priority" plant species, especially those held sacred as lifeway medicines. This transdisciplinary approach has important implications for resource management planning, especially in areas such as Bears Ears that will experience greater visitation and associated impacts in the near future.

Variability in the organization and size of hunter-gatherer groups: Foragers do not live in small-scale societies.

Mobile hunter-gatherers are often characterized as living in small communities where mobility and group size are products of the environmentally determined distribution of resources, and where social organization is multi-scalar: groups of co-residents are nested within small communities that are, in turn, nested within small-scale societies. Such organization is often assumed to be reflective of the human past, emerging as human cognition and communication evolved through earlier fission-fusion social processes, typical of many primate social systems. We review the history of this assumption in light of recent empirical data of co-residence and social networks among contemporary hunter-gatherers. We suggest that while residential and foraging groups are often small, there is little evidence that these groups are drawn from small communities nested within small-scale societies. Most mobile hunter-gatherers live in groups dominated by links between non-relatives, where residential group membership is fluid and supports large-scale social networks of interaction. We investigate these dynamics with fine-grained observational data on Martu foraging groups and social organization in Australia's Western Desert. The composition of Martu foraging groups is distinct from that of residential groups, although both are dominated by ties between individuals who have no close biological relationships. The number of individuals in a foraging group varies with habitat quality, but in a dynamic way, as group size is shaped by ecological legacies of land use. The flexible size and composition of foraging groups link individuals across their "estates": spatially explicit storehouses of ritual and relational wealth, inherited across generations through maintaining expansive networks of social interaction in a large and complex society. We propose that human cognition is tied to development of such expansive social relationships and co-evolved with dynamic socio-ecological interactions expressed in large-scale networks of relational wealth.

Resource scarcity drives lethal aggression among prehistoric hunter-gatherers in central California.

The origin of human violence and warfare is controversial, and some scholars contend that intergroup conflict was rare until the emergence of sedentary foraging and complex sociopolitical organization, whereas others assert that violence was common and of considerable antiquity among small-scale societies. Here we consider two alternative explanations for the evolution of human violence: (i) individuals resort to violence when benefits outweigh potential costs, which is likely in resource poor environments, or (ii) participation in violence increases when there is coercion from leaders in complex societies leading to group level benefits. To test these hypotheses, we evaluate the relative importance of resource scarcity vs. sociopolitical complexity by evaluating spatial variation in three macro datasets from central California: (i) an extensive bioarchaeological record dating from 1,530 to 230 cal BP recording rates of blunt and sharp force skeletal trauma on thousands of burials, (ii) quantitative scores of sociopolitical complexity recorded ethnographically, and (iii) mean net primary productivity (NPP) from a remotely sensed global dataset. Results reveal that sharp force trauma, the most common form of violence in the record, is better predicted by resource scarcity than relative sociopolitical complexity. Blunt force cranial trauma shows no correlation with NPP or political complexity and may reflect a different form of close contact violence. This study provides no support for the position that violence originated with the development of more complex hunter-gatherer adaptations in the fairly recent past. Instead, findings show that individuals are prone to violence in times and places of resource scarcity.

When does it pay to invest in a patch? The evolution of intentional niche construction.

Humans modify their environments in ways that significantly transform the earth's ecosystems. Recent research suggests that such niche-constructing behaviors are not passive human responses to environmental variation, but instead should be seen as active and intentional management of the environment. Although such research is useful in highlighting the interactive dynamics between humans and their natural world, the niche-construction framework, as currently applied, fails to explain why people would decide to modify their environments in the first place. To help resolve this problem, we use a model of technological intensification to analyze the cost-benefit trade-offs associated with niche construction as a form of patch investment. We use this model to assess the costs and benefits of three paradigmatic cases of intentional niche construction in Western North America: the application of fire in acorn groves, the manufacture of fishing weirs, and the adoption of maize agriculture. Intensification models predict that investing in patch modification (niche construction) only provides a net benefit when the amount of resources needed crosses a critical threshold that makes the initial investment worthwhile. From this, it follows that low-cost investments, such as burning in oak groves, should be quite common, while more costly investments, such as maize agriculture, should be less common and depend on the alternatives available in the local environment. We examine how patterns of mobility, risk management, territoriality, and private property also co-evolve with the costs and benefits of niche construction. This approach illustrates that explaining niche-constructing behavior requires understanding the economic trade-offs involved in patch investment. Integrating concepts from niche construction and technological intensification models within a behavioral ecological framework provides insights into the coevolution and active feedback between adaptive behaviors and environmental change across human history.

The ecology of population dispersal: Modeling alternative basin-plateau foraging strategies to explain the Numic expansion.

OBJECTIVES: The expansion of Numic speaking populations into the Great Basin required individuals to adapt to a relatively unproductive landscape. Researchers have proposed numerous social and subsistence strategies to explain how and why these settlers were able to replace any established populations, including private property and intensive plant processing. Here we evaluate these hypotheses and propose a new strategy involving the use of landscape fire to increase resource encounter rates. METHODS: Implementing a novel, spatially explicit, multi-scalar prey choice model, we examine how individual decisions approximating each alternative strategy (private property, anthropogenic fire, and intensive plant processing) would aggregate at the patch and band level to confer an overall benefit to this colonizing population. Analysis relies on experimental data reporting resource profitability and abundance, ecological data on the historic distribution of vegetation patches, and ethnohistoric data on the distribution of Numic bands. RESULTS: Model results show that while resource privatization and landscape fires produce a substantial advantage, intensified plant processing garners the greatest benefit. The relative benefits of alternative strategies vary significantly across ecological patches resulting in variation across ethnographic band ranges. Combined, a Numic strategy including all three alternatives would substantially increase subsistence yields. CONCLUSIONS: The application of a strategy set that includes landscape fire, privatization and intensified processing of seeds and nuts, explains why the Numa were able to outcompete local populations. This approach provides a framework to help explain how individual decisions can result in such population replacement events throughout human history.

Pyrodiversity and the anthropocene: the role of fire in the broad spectrum revolution.

The Anthropocene colloquially refers to a global regime of human-caused environmental modification of earth systems associated with profound changes in patterns of human mobility, as well as settlement and resource use compared with prior eras. Some have argued that the processes generating the Anthropocene are mainly associated with population growth and technological innovation, and thus began only in the late Holocene under conditions of dense sedentism and industrial agriculture.(1) However, it now seems clear that the roots of the Anthropocene lie in complex processes of intensification that significantly predate transitions to agriculture.(2,3) What intensification is remains less clear. For some it is increasing economic productivity that increases carrying capacity, the drivers of which may be too diverse and too local to generalize.(4,5) For others using Boserup's ideas about agrarian intensification, increasing density in hunter-gatherer populations can produce declines in subsistence efficiency that increase incentives for investing labor to boost yield per unit area, which then elevates Malthusian limits on carrying capacity.(6-8) As Morgan(9) demonstrates in a comprehensive review, the legacy of such Boserupian intensification is alive, well, and controversial in hunter-gatherer archeology. This is a result of its potential for illuminating processes involved in transformations of forager socio-political and economic systems, including those dominated by harvesting more immediate-return resources and high residential mobility as well as those characterized by more delayed-return material economies with reduced residential mobility, a broader spectrum of resources, degrees of storage, and greater social stratification. Here we detail hypotheses about the processes involved in such transitions and explore the way that anthropogenic disturbance of ecosystems, especially the use of landscape fire, could be fundamentally entangled with many broad-spectrum revolutions associated with intensified foraging systems.

Environmental productivity predicts migration, demographic, and linguistic patterns in prehistoric California.

Global patterns of ethnolinguistic diversity vary tremendously. Some regions show very little variation even across vast expanses, whereas others exhibit dense mosaics of different languages spoken alongside one another. Compared with the rest of Native North America, prehistoric California exemplified the latter. Decades of linguistic, genetic, and archaeological research have produced detailed accounts of the migrations that aggregated to build California's diverse ethnolinguistic mosaic, but there have been few have attempts to explain the process underpinning these migrations and why such a mosaic did not develop elsewhere. Here we show that environmental productivity predicts both the order of migration events and the population density recorded at contact. The earliest colonizers occupied the most suitable habitats along the coast, whereas subsequent Mid-Late Holocene migrants settled in more marginal habitats. Other Late Holocene patterns diverge from this trend, reflecting altered dynamics linked to food storage and increased sedentism. Through repeated migration events, incoming populations replaced resident populations occurring at lower densities in lower-productivity habitats, thereby resulting in the fragmentation of earlier groups and the development of one of the most diverse ethnolinguistic patterns in the Americas. Such a process may account for the distribution of ethnolinguistic diversity worldwide.

Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia's spinifex grasslands.

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet-dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes.

US homicide rates increase when resources are scarce and unequally distributed.

As homicide rates spike across the United States, researchers nominate diverse causes such as temperature, city greenness, structural racism, inequality, poverty and more. While variation in homicide rates clearly results from multiple causes, many correlation studies lack the systematic theory needed to identify the underlying factors that structure individual motivations. Building on pioneering work in evolutionary human sciences, we propose that when resources are unequally distributed, individuals may have incentives to undertake high-risk activities, including lethal violence, in order to secure material and social capital. Here we evaluate this theory by analysing federal data on homicide rates, poverty and income inequality across all 50 US states for the years 1990, 2000 and 2005-2020. Supporting predictions derived from evolutionary social sciences, we find that the interaction of poverty (scarcity) and inequality (unequal distribution) best explains variation in US homicide rates. Results suggest that the increase in homicide rates during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic are driven in part by these same underlying causes that structure homicide rates across the US over the last 30 years. We suggest that these results provide compelling evidence to expand strategies for reducing homicide rates by dismantling structures that generate and concentrate sustained poverty and economic inequality.

Niche construction and Dreaming logic: aboriginal patch mosaic burning and varanid lizards (Varanus gouldii) in Australia.

Anthropogenic fire is a form of ecosystem engineering that creates greater landscape patchiness at small spatial scales: such rescaling of patch diversity through mosaic burning has been argued to be a form of niche construction, the loss of which may have precipitated the decline and extinction of many endemic species in the Western Desert of Australia. We find evidence to support this hypothesis relative to one keystone species, the sand monitor lizard (Varanus gouldii). Paradoxically, V. gouldii populations are higher where Aboriginal hunting is most intense. This effect is driven by an increase in V. gouldii densities near successional edges, which is higher in landscapes that experience extensive human burning. Over time, the positive effects of patch mosaic burning while hunting overwhelm the negative effects of predation in recently burned areas to produce overall positive impacts on lizard populations. These results offer critical insights into the maintenance of animal communities in the desert, supporting the hypothesis that the current high rate of endemic species decline among small animals may be linked to the interaction between invasive species and mid-century removal of Aboriginal niche construction through hunting and patch mosaic burning.

Identifying key socioecological factors influencing the expression of egalitarianism and inequality among foragers.

Understanding how resource characteristics influence variability in social and material inequality among foraging populations is a prominent area of research. However, obtaining cross-comparative data from which to evaluate theoretically informed resource characteristic factors has proved difficult, particularly for investigating interactions of characteristics. Therefore, we develop an agent-based model to evaluate how five key characteristics of primary resources (predictability, heterogeneity, abundance, economy of scale and monopolizability) structure pay-offs and explore how they interact to favour both egalitarianism and inequality. Using iterated simulations from 243 unique combinations of resource characteristics analysed with an ensemble machine-learning approach, we find the predictability and heterogeneity of key resources have the greatest influence on selection for egalitarian and nonegalitarian outcomes. These results help explain the prevalence of egalitarianism among foraging populations, as many groups probably relied on resources that were both relatively less predictable and more homogeneously distributed. The results also help explain rare forager inequality, as comparison with ethnographic and archaeological examples suggests the instances of inequality track strongly with reliance on resources that were predictable and heterogeneously distributed. Future work quantifying comparable measures of these two variables, in particular, may be able to identify additional instances of forager inequality. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolutionary ecology of inequality'.

Toward an evolutionary ecology of (in)equality.

Inequality is increasingly recognized as a major problem in contemporary society. The causes and consequences of inequality in wealth and power have long been central concerns in the social sciences, whereas comparable research in biology has focused on dominance and reproductive skew. This theme issue builds on these existing research traditions, exploring ways they might enrich each other, with evolutionary ecology as a possibly unifying framework. Contributors investigate ways in which inequality is resisted or avoided and developed or imposed in societies of past and contemporary humans, as well as a variety of social mammals. Particular attention is paid to systematic, socially driven inequality in wealth (defined broadly) and the effects this has on differential power, health, survival and reproduction. Analyses include field studies, simulations, archaeological and ethnographic case studies, and analytical models. The results reveal similarities and divergences between human and non-human patterns in wealth, power and social dynamics. We draw on these insights to present a unifying conceptual framework for analysing the evolutionary ecology of (in)equality, with the hope of both understanding the past and improving our collective future. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolutionary ecology of inequality'.

The impacts of climate change, energy policy and traditional ecological practices on future firewood availability for Diné (Navajo) People.

Local-scale human-environment relationships are fundamental to energy sovereignty, and in many contexts, Indigenous ecological knowledge (IEK) is integral to such relationships. For example, Tribal leaders in southwestern USA identify firewood harvested from local woodlands as vital. For Diné people, firewood is central to cultural and physical survival and offers a reliable fuel for energy embedded in local ecological systems. However, there are two acute problems: first, climate change-induced drought will diminish local sources of firewood; second, policies aimed at reducing reliance on greenhouse-gas-emitting energy sources may limit alternatives like coal for home use, thereby increasing firewood demand to unsustainable levels. We develop an agent-based model trained with ecological and community-generated ethnographic data to assess the future of firewood availability under varying climate, demand and IEK scenarios. We find that the long-term sustainability of Indigenous firewood harvesting is maximized under low-emissions and low-to-moderate demand scenarios when harvesters adhere to IEK guidance. Results show how Indigenous ecological practices and resulting ecological legacies maintain resilient socio-environmental systems. Insights offered focus on creating energy equity for Indigenous people and broad lessons about how Indigenous knowledge is integral for adapting to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Subsistence strategy mediates ecological drivers of human violence.

Inter-personal violence (whether intra- or inter-group) is a pervasive yet highly variable human behavior. Evolutionary anthropologists suggest that the abundance and distribution of resources play an important role in influencing differences in rates of violence, with implications for how resource conditions structure adaptive payoffs. Here, we assess whether differences in large-scale ecological conditions explain variability in levels of inter-personal human violence. Model results reveal a significant relationship between resource conditions and violence that is mediated by subsistence economy. Specifically, we find that interpersonal violence is highest: (1) among foragers and mixed forager/farmers (horticulturalists) in productive, homogeneous environments, and (2) among agriculturalists in unproductive, heterogeneous environments. We argue that the trend reversal between foragers and agriculturalists represents differing competitive pathways to enhanced reproductive success. These alternative pathways may be driven by features of subsistence (i.e., surplus, storage, mobility, privatization), in which foragers use violence to directly acquire fitness-linked social payoffs (i.e., status, mating opportunities, alliances), and agriculturalists use violence to acquire material resources that can be transformed into social payoffs. We suggest that as societies transition from immediate return economies (e.g., foragers) to delayed return economies (e.g., agriculturalists) material resources become an increasingly important adaptive payoff for inter-personal, especially inter-group, violence.

El Niño frequency threshold controls coastal biotic communities.

El Niño has profound influences on ecosystem dynamics. However, we know little about how it shapes vertebrate faunal community composition over centennial time scales, and this limits our ability to forecast change under projections of future El Niño events. On the basis of correlations between geological records of past El Niño frequency and the species composition of bird and fish remains from a Baja California bone deposit that spans the past 12,000 years, we documented marked faunal restructuring when major El Niño events occurred more than five times per century. This tipping point has implications for the past and future ecology of eastern Pacific coastal environments.