Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes.

SignificanceTwenty-first century trends in hydroclimate are so large that future average conditions will, in most cases, fall into the range of what we would today consider extreme drought or pluvial states. Using large climate model ensembles, we remove the background trend and find that the risk of droughts and pluvials relative to that (changing) baseline is fairly similar to the 20th century risk. By continually adapting to long-term background changes, these risks could therefore perhaps be minimized. However, increases in the frequency of extremely wet and dry years are still present even after removing the trend, indicating that sustainably managing hydroclimate-driven risks in a warmer world will face increasingly difficult challenges.

Environmental change explains cichlid adaptive radiation at Lake Malawi over the past 1.2 million years.

Long paleoecological records are critical for understanding evolutionary responses to environmental forcing and unparalleled tools for elucidating the mechanisms that lead to the development of regions of high biodiversity. We use a 1.2-My record from Lake Malawi, a textbook example of biological diversification, to document how climate and tectonics have driven ecosystem and evolutionary dynamics. Before ∼800 ka, Lake Malawi was much shallower than today, with higher frequency but much lower amplitude water-level and oxygenation changes. Since ∼800 ka, the lake has experienced much larger environmental fluctuations, best explained by a punctuated, tectonically driven rise in its outlet location and level. Following the reorganization of the basin, a change in the pacing of hydroclimate variability associated with the Mid-Pleistocene Transition resulted in hydrologic change dominated by precession rather than the high-latitude teleconnections recorded elsewhere. During this time, extended, deep lake phases have abruptly alternated with times of extreme aridity and ecosystem variability. Repeated crossings of hydroclimatic thresholds within the lake system were critical for establishing the rhythm of diversification, hybridization, and extinction that dominate the modern system. The chronology of these changes closely matches both the timing and pattern of phylogenetic history inferred independently for the lake's extraordinary array of cichlid fish species, suggesting a direct link between environmental and evolutionary dynamics.

Transcranial direct current stimulation impairs updating of avoidance-based associative learning.

Introduction: Exposure-based psychotherapies for the treatment of anxiety- and fear-based disorders rely on "corrective" associative learning. Namely the repeated confrontation with feared stimuli in the absence of negative outcomes allows the formation of new, corrected associations of safety, indicating that such stimuli no longer need to be avoided. Unfortunately, exposure-facilitated corrective learning tends to be bound by context and often poorly generalizes. One brain structure, the prefrontal cortex, is implicated in context-guided behavior and may be a relevant target for improving generalization of safety learning. Here, we tested whether inhibition of the left prefrontal cortex causally impaired updating of context-bound associations specifically or, alternatively, impaired updating of learned associations irrespective of contextual changes. Additionally, we tested whether prefrontal inhibition during corrective learning influenced subsequent generalization of associations to a novel context. Methods: In two separate experiments, participants received either 10 min of 2 mA cathodal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) over EEG coordinate F3 (Experiment 1 n = 9, Experiment 2 n = 22) or sham stimulation (Experiment 1 n = 10, Experiment 2 n = 22) while previously learned associations were reversed in the same or a different context from initial learning. Next, to assess generalization of learning, participants were asked to indicate which of the previously seen images they preferred in a novel, never seen before context. Results: Results indicate that tDCS significantly impaired reversal irrespective of context in Experiment 2 only. When taking learning rate across trials into account, both experiments suggest that participants who received sham had the greatest learning rate when reversal occurred in a different context, as expected, whereas participants who received active tDCS in this condition had the lowest learning rate. However, active tDCS was associated with preferring the originally disadvantageous, but then neural stimulus after stimulus after reversal occurred in a different context in Experiment 1 only. Discussion: These results support a causal role for the left prefrontal cortex in the updating of avoidance-based associations and encourage further inquiry investigating the use of non-invasive brain stimulation on flexible updating of learned associations.

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects.

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño­Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. "Decadal," which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

State of corals and coral reefs of the Galápagos Islands (Ecuador): Past, present and future.

Coral populations and structural coral reefs have undergone severe reductions and losses respectively over large parts of the Galápagos Islands during and following the 1982-83 El Niño event. Coral tissue loss amounted to 95% across the Archipelago. Also at that time, all coral reefs in the central and southern islands disappeared following severe degradation and eventual collapse due primarily to intense bioerosion and low recruitment. Six sites in the southern islands have demonstrated low to moderate coral community (scattered colonies, but no carbonate framework) recovery. The iconic pocilloporid reef at Devil's Crown (Floreana Island) experienced recovery to 2007, then severe mortality during a La Niña cooling event, and is again (as of 2017) undergoing rapid recovery. Notable recovery has occurred at the central (Marchena) and northern islands (Darwin and Wolf). Of the 17 structural reefs first observed in the mid-1970s, the single surviving reef (Wellington Reef) at Darwin Island remains in a positive growth mode. The remainder either degraded to a coral community or was lost. Retrospective analyses of the age structure of corals killed in 1983, and isotopic signatures of the skeletal growth record of massive corals suggest the occurrence of robust coral populations during at least a 500-year period before 1983. The greatest potential threats to the recovery and persistence of coral reefs include: ocean warming and acidification, bioerosion, coral diseases, human population growth (increasing numbers of residents and tourists), overfishing, invasive species, pollution, and habitat destruction. Such a diverse spectrum of disturbances, acting alone or in combination, are expected to continue to cause local and archipelago-wide mortality and degradation of the coral reef ecosystem.

Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia.

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ∼1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ∼1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

The role of nodding stems in the goldenrod-gall-fly interaction: A test of the "ducking" hypothesis.

Herbivores are among the most pervasive selective forces acting on plants, and the number of plant chemicals that presumably evolved for defense against herbivory is immense. In contrast, biologists are only beginning to appreciate the important roles that architectural traits can play in antiherbivore defense. One putative architectural-resistance trait is the nodding stem apex of some goldenrods (Solidago; Asteraceae). Individuals of S. altissima genets that undergo temporary nodding in the late spring (i.e., "candy-cane" ramets) have been shown to be more resistant than individuals of erect-stemmed genets to certain apex-attacking herbivores. We tested the hypothesis that the greater resistance of candy-cane ramets is accomplished by the ramets' "ducking" from the herbivores. In a greenhouse experiment, nodding candy-cane ramets were significantly more resistant to oviposition by the gall-inducing fly Eurosta solidaginis than were ramets of the same genets that had been experimentally straightened. The straightened candy-cane stems were just as susceptible to ovipositions as were ramets of erect-stemmed genets. Thus, ducking indeed appears to confer a resistance advantage to candy-cane genets of S. altissima.

Trainee to trained: helping senior psychiatric trainees make the transition to consultant.

PURPOSE: To describe the contents and results of a series of annual fora for senior psychiatric trainees in New Zealand. These fora were designed to address a perceived gap in the training of psychiatrists in non-clinical skills. PROCEDURES: The contents of the fora are described, and qualitative and quantitative feedback from participants is reported, These data were gathered from participants for the purposes of quality improvement, using questionnaires designed for this setting. Issues addressed included participants' self-ratings of gains in knowledge, as well as their ratings of tutor effectiveness, the forum overall and the extent to which their needs were met. Qualitative feedback included suggestions for improvements and identification of key learning gains. MAIN FINDINGS: There was an increase in understanding in all topic areas as assessed by the participants. In addition, participants made unanticipated gains in confidence and their sense of empowerment. The opportunity to meet with peers and the increased sense of collegiality were valued. Suggestions for improvements were incorporated into fora held in successive years. PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS: Non-clinical skills can be taught successfully to senior trainees in a forum setting, which can also facilitate development of peer support and empowerment. More time for practice and discussion of how the teachers coped with challenging situations would improve the forum. It is recommended that such non-clinical skills also be incorporated into the teaching of senior trainees in the workplace.