Dynamic Modeling and Target Loads of Sulfur and Nitrogen for Surface Waters in Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

The target load concept is an extension of the critical load concept of air pollution inputs to ecosystems. The advantage of target loads over critical loads is that one can define the deposition and the point in time (target year) when the critical (chemical) limit is no longer violated. This information on the timing of recovery requires dynamic modeling. Using a well-documented dynamic model, target loads for acidic deposition were determined for 848 surface waters across Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom for the target year 2050. In the majority of sites ( n = 675), the critical ANC-limit was predicted to be achieved by 2050; however, for 127 sites, target loads were determined. In addition, 46 sites were infeasible, i.e., even a reduction of anthropogenic deposition to zero would not achieve the limit by 2050. The average maximum target load for sulfur was 38% lower than the respective critical load across the study lakes ( n = 127). Target loads on a large regional scale can inform effects-based emission reduction policies; the current assessment suggests that reductions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol are required to ensure surface water recovery from acidification by 2050.

Development of soil health benchmarks for managed and semi-natural landscapes.

Efforts to improve soil health require that target values of key soil properties are established. No agreed targets exist but providing population data as benchmarks is a useful step to standardise soil health comparison between landscapes. We exploited nationally representative topsoil (0-15 cm) measurements to derive soil health benchmarks for managed and semi-natural environments across Great Britain. In total, 4587 soil organic matter (SOM), 3860 pH, 2908 bulk density (BD), and 465 earthworm abundance (EA) datapoints were used. As soil properties are sensitive to site-specific characteristics, data were stratified by habitat, soil type, and mean annual precipitation, with benchmarks defined as the middle 80 % of values in each distribution - yielding 135 benchmarks. BD and pH decreased with land management intensity (agriculture > semi-natural grasslands > woodlands > heathlands > wetlands), and vice versa for SOM and EA. Normalising benchmark ranges by medians revealed soil health indicator benchmark widths increased in the order: pH < BD < SOM < EA, while width increased with decreasing land management intensity. Arable and horticulture and improved grassland exhibited narrow benchmarks for SOM, pH and BD, yet the widest EA benchmark, suggesting additional drivers impact EA patterns. Upland wetlands had the widest BD benchmarks, important when determining carbon stocks. East Anglia currently possesses the largest proportions of atypical soils, including below typical SOM (19.2 %), above typical BD (17.4 %) and pH (39.1 %), and the smallest proportions of above typical SOM (2.4 %), and below typical BD (5.8 %) and pH (2.3 %). This is found even after land use, soil type and rainfall have been considered, underscoring how urgently soil health should be addressed here. Our benchmarking framework allows landowners to compare where their measured soil health indicators fall within expected ranges and is applicable to other biomes, national and multinational contexts.

Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

Long-term predictions of ecosystem acidification and recovery.

This paper considers the long-term (500year) consequences of continued acid deposition, using a small forested catchment in S. England as an example. The MAGIC acidification model was calibrated to the catchment using data for the year 2000, and run backwards in time for 200years, and forwards for 500. Validation data for model predictions were provided by various stream and soil measurements made between 1977 and 2013. The model hindcast suggests that pre-industrial stream conditions were very different from those measured in 2000. Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) was +150µeqL(-1) and pH7.1: there was little nitrate (NO3). By the year 2000, acid deposition had reduced the pH to 4.2 and ANC to c. -100µeqL(-1), and NO3 was increasing in the stream. The future state of the catchment was modelled using actual deposition reductions up to 2013, and then based on current emission reduction commitments. This leads to substantial recovery, to pH6.1, ANC +43µeqL(-1), though it takes c. 250years. Then, however, steady acidification resumes, due to continued N accumulation in the catchment and leaching of NO3. Soil data collected using identical methods in 1978 and 2013 show that MAGIC correctly predicts the direction of change, but the observed data show more extreme changes - reasons for this are discussed. Three cycles of forest growth were modelled - this reduces NO3 output substantially during the active growth phase, and increases stream pH and ANC, but acidifies the soil which continues to accumulate nitrogen. The assumptions behind these results are discussed, and it is concluded that unmanaged ecosystems will not return to a pre-industrial state in the foreseeable future.

Effects of air pollution on ecosystems and biological diversity in the eastern United States.

Conservation organizations have most often focused on land-use change, climate change, and invasive species as prime threats to biodiversity conservation. Although air pollution is an acknowledged widespread problem, it is rarely considered in conservation planning or management. In this synthesis, the state of scientific knowledge on the effects of air pollution on plants and animals in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States is summarized. Four air pollutants (sulfur, nitrogen, ozone, and mercury) and eight ecosystem types ranging from estuaries to alpine tundra are considered. Effects of air pollution were identified, with varying levels of certainty, in all the ecosystem types examined. None of these ecosystem types is free of the impacts of air pollution, and most are affected by multiple pollutants. In aquatic ecosystems, effects of acidity, nitrogen, and mercury on organisms and biogeochemical processes are well documented. Air pollution causes or contributes to acidification of lakes, eutrophication of estuaries and coastal waters, and mercury bioaccumulation in aquatic food webs. In terrestrial ecosystems, the effects of air pollution on biogeochemical cycling are also very well documented, but the effects on most organisms and the interaction of air pollution with other stressors are less well understood. Nevertheless, there is strong evidence for effects of nitrogen deposition on plants in grasslands, alpine areas, and bogs, and for nitrogen effects on forest mycorrhizae. Soil acidification is widespread in forest ecosystems across the eastern United States and is likely to affect the composition and function of forests in acid-sensitive areas over the long term. Ozone is known to cause reductions in photosynthesis in many terrestrial plant species. For the most part, the effects of these pollutants are chronic, not acute, at the exposure levels common in the eastern United States. Mortality is often observed only at experimentally elevated exposure levels or in combination with other stresses such as drought, freezing, or pathogens. The notable exceptions are the acid/aluminum effects on aquatic organisms, which can be lethal at levels of acidity observed in many surface waters in the region. Although the effects are often subtle, they are important to biological conservation. Changes in species composition caused by terrestrial or aquatic acidification or eutrophication can propagate throughout the food webs to affect many organisms beyond those that are directly sensitive to the pollution. Likewise, sublethal doses of toxic pollutants may reduce the reproductive success of the affected organisms or make them more susceptible to potentially lethal pathogens. Many serious gaps in knowledge that warrant further research were identified. Among those gaps are the effects of acidification, ozone, and mercury on alpine systems, effects of nitrogen on species composition of forests, effects of mercury in terrestrial food webs, interactive effects of multiple pollutants, and interactions among air pollution and other environmental changes such as climate change and invasive species. These gaps in knowledge, coupled with the strong likelihood of impacts on ecosystems that have not been studied in the region, suggests that current knowledge underestimates the actual impact of air pollutants on biodiversity. Nonetheless, because known or likely impacts of air pollution on the biodiversity and function of natural ecosystems are widespread in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, the effects of air pollution should be considered in any long-term conservation strategy. It is recommended that ecologically relevant standards, such as "critical loads," be adopted for air pollutants and the importance of long-term monitoring of air pollution and its effects is emphasized.