Statistically adjusted estimates of geographic mortality profiles.

The spatial variation of site-specific cancer mortality rates at the county or state economic area level can provide a) insights into possible etiologic factors and b) the basis for more detailed epidemiologic studies. One difficulty with such studies, especially for rare cancer types, is that unstable local area rate estimates, resulting from small population sizes, can obscure the underlying spatial pattern of disease risk. This paper presents a methodology for producing more stable rate estimates by statistically weighting the local area rate estimate toward the experience at the national level. The methodology is illustrated by the analysis of the spatial variation of two cancer types, bladder and lung, for U.S. white males over the three decades 1950-79.

U.S. cancer mortality 1950-1978: a strategy for analyzing spatial and temporal patterns.

There are a number of technical and statistical problems in monitoring the temporal and spatial variation of local area death rates in the United States for evidence of systematically elevated risks. An analytic strategy is proposed to reduce one of the major statistical concerns, i.e., that of identifying areas with truly elevated mortality risks from a large number of local area comparisons. This analytic strategy involves two stages. The first is a procedure for examining the entire distribution of local area death rates instead of simply selecting high risk "outliers." The second is the development of an analytic procedure to relate the temporal changes in the cross-sectional distribution of local area death rates to models of the disease process operating within the populations in those areas. The procedures are applied to data on cancer mortality for the 3050 counties (or county equivalents) of the United States over the period 1950 to 1978. A number of striking mortality patterns, both within the entire United States and within various regions and states, are identified. For example, perhaps the most persistent finding was that the risk increases in the death rates for respiratory cancer mortality were due to a "catching up" of nonmetropolitan county mortality rates with metropolitan area mortality rates.

Cancer mortality in agricultural regions of Minnesota.

Because of its unique geology, Minnesota can be divided into four agricultural regions: south-central region one (corn, soybeans); west-central region two (wheat, corn, soybeans); northwest region three (wheat, sugar beets, potatoes); and northeast region four (forested and urban in character). Cancer mortality (1980-1989) in agricultural regions one, two, and three was compared to region four. Using data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics, cancer mortality was summarized by 5-year age groups, sex, race, and county. Age-standardized mortality rate ratios were calculated for white males and females for all ages combined, and for children aged 0-14. Increased mortality rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were observed for the following cancer sites: region one--lip (men), standardized rate ratio (SRR) = 2.70 (CI, 1.08-6.71); nasopharynx (women), SRR = 3.35 (CI, 1.20-9.31); region two--non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (women), SRR = 1.35 (CI, 1.09-1.66); and region three--prostate (men), SRR = 1.12 (CI, 1.00-1.26); thyroid (men), SRR = 2.95 (CI, 1.35-6.44); bone (men), SRR = 2.09 (CI, 1. 00-4.34); eye (women), SRR = 5.77 (CI, 1.90-17.50). Deficits of smoking-related cancers were noted. Excess cancers reported are consistent with earlier reports of agriculturally related cancers in the midwestern United States. However, reports on thyroid and bone cancer in association with agricultural pesticides are few in number. The highest use of fungicides occurs in region three. Ethylenebisdithiocarbamates, whose metabolite is a known cause of thyroid cancer in rats, are frequently applied. This report provides a rationale for evaluation of the carcinogenic potential of this suspect agent in humans.

Assessment of spatial variation of risks in small populations.

Often environmental hazards are assessed by examining the spatial variation of disease-specific mortality or morbidity rates. These rates, when estimated for small local populations, can have a high degree of random variation or uncertainty associated with them. If those rate estimates are used to prioritize environmental clean-up actions or to allocate resources, then those decisions may be influenced by this high degree of uncertainty. Unfortunately, the effect of this uncertainty is not to add "random noise" into the decision-making process, but to systematically bias action toward the smallest populations where uncertainty is greatest and where extreme high and low rate deviations are most likely to be manifest by chance. We present a statistical procedure for adjusting rate estimates for differences in variability due to differentials in local area population sizes. Such adjustments produce rate estimates for areas that have better properties than the unadjusted rates for use in making statistically based decisions about the entire set of areas. Examples are provided for county variation in bladder, stomach, and lung cancer mortality rates for U.S. white males for the period 1970 to 1979.

Effect of pentachlorophenol on the activation of 2,6-dinitrotoluene to genotoxic urinary metabolites in CD-1 mice: a comparison of GI enzyme activities and urine mutagenicity.

2,6-Dinitrotoluene (2,6-DNT) and pentachlorophenol (PCP) are used for industrial purposes and are found in the environment as hazardous contaminants. Because concurrent exposure to both compounds can occur, it is of interest to determine if organochlorine compounds potentiate the effect of nitroaromatic chemicals. CD-1 mice were treated with PCP (42.8 mg/kg) for 4 weeks. On weeks 1, 2, and 4 after the initial PCP dose, mice were treated p.o. with 2,6-DNT (75 mg/kg) and 24 hr urines were collected. After concentration, the urines were tested for their mutagenic activity in Salmonella typhimurium strain TA98 without metabolic activation in a microsuspension bioassay. A significant increase (P less than .05) in mutagenicity was observed in urines from mice treated with 2,6-DNT alone and in combination with PCP. By week 4, mice that received both 2,6-DNT and PCP excreted urine that was more mutagenic than that from animals which received only 2,6-DNT. At weeks 2 and 4, mice were sacrificed and intestinal enzyme activities (nitroreductase, azo reductase, beta-glucuronidase, dechlorinase, and dehydrochlorinase) were quantitated. The enhanced genotoxicity observed in urines from 2,6-DNT/PCP-treated mice coincided with a decrease in nitroreductase and an increase in beta-glucuronidase activities in the small intestine.

Methods for comparing Salmonella mutagenicity data sets using nonlinear models.

A variety of linear and nonlinear mathematical models have been proposed to characterize Salmonella mutagenicity data sets, but no systematic procedure has been suggested for comparing two or more data sets across experiments, laboratories, occasions, mutagens or treatment conditions. In this paper, a general method for data-set comparison is provided. Nonlinear regression techniques are applied to real data sets. Data-set and parameter equivalence are described in depth. Confidence-band construction for nonlinear models and other graphical techniques are presented as auxiliary tools. Key Statistical Analysis System (SAS) code programs are provided.

Modeling the Ames test.

Despite the value and widespread use of the Ames test, little attention has been focused on standardizing quantitative methods of analyzing these data. In this paper, a realistic and statistically tractable model is developed for the evaluation of Ames-type data. The model assumes revertant colony formation at any dose follows a Poisson process, while the mean number of revertants per plate is a nonlinear function of up to 4 parameters. An exponential decay term can be included in the model to adjust for toxicity. The resultant system of nonlinear equations is solved using a modified Gauss-Newton iterative scheme to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. Significance of the key parameters is tested by fitting reduced models and using likelihood ratio tests. The model's performance is demonstrated on data from organic extracts of various environmental contaminants. Among the advantages of the proposed model are (1) no data is discarded in the parameter estimation process, (2) no arbitrary constants need to be added to zero counts or doses, and (3) no mathematical transformation of the data is required.

The relationships between personal PM exposures for elderly populations and indoor and outdoor concentrations for three retirement center scenarios.

Personal exposures, indoor and outdoor concentrations, and questionnaire data were collected in three retirement center settings, supporting broader particulate matter (PM)--health studies of elderly populations. The studies varied geographically and temporally, with populations studied in Baltimore, MD in the summer of 1998, and Fresno, CA in the winter and spring of 1999. The sequential nature of the studies and the relatively rapid review of the mass concentration data after each segment provided the opportunity to modify the experimental designs, including the information collected from activity diary and baseline questionnaires and influencing factors (e.g., heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system operation, door and window openings, air exchange rate) measurements. This paper highlights both PM2.5 and PM10 personal exposure data and interrelationships across the three retirement center settings, and identifies the most probable influencing factors. The current limited availability of questionnaire results, and chemical speciation data beyond mass concentration for these studies, provided only limited capability to estimate personal exposures from models and apportion the personal exposure collections to their sources. The mean personal PM2.5 exposures for the elderly in three retirement centers were found to be consistently higher than the paired apartment concentrations by 50% to 68%, even though different facility types and geographic locations were represented. Mean personal-to-outdoor ratios were found to 0.70, 0.82, and 1.10, and appeared to be influenced by the time doors and windows were open and aggressive particle removal by the HVAC systems. Essentially identical computed mean PM2.5 personal clouds of 3 micrograms/m3 were determined for two of the studies. The proposed significant contributing factors to these personal clouds were resuspended particles from carpeting, collection of body dander and clothing fibers, personal proximity to open doors and windows, and elevated PM levels in nonapartment indoor microenvironments.

The 1999 Fresno particulate matter exposure studies: comparison of community, outdoor, and residential PM mass measurements.

Two collaborative studies have been conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory to determine personal exposures and physiological responses to particulate matter (PM) of elderly persons living in a retirement facility in Fresno, CA. Measurements of PM and other criteria air pollutants were made inside selected individual residences within the retirement facility and at a central outdoor site on the premises. In addition, personal PM exposure monitoring was conducted for a subset of the participants, and ambient PM monitoring data were available for comparison from the NERL PM research monitoring platform in central Fresno. Both a winter (February 1-28, 1999) and a spring (April 19-May 16, 1999) study were completed so that seasonal effects could be evaluated. During the spring study, a more robust personal exposure component was added, as well as a more detailed evaluation of physical factors, such as air-exchange rate, that are known to influence the penetration of particles into the indoor environment. In this paper, comparisons are made among measured personal PM exposures and PM mass concentrations measured at the NERL Fresno Platform site, outside on the premises of the retirement facility, and inside selected residential apartments at the facility during the two 28-day study periods. The arithmetic daily mean personal PM2.5 exposure during the winter study period was 13.3 micrograms/m3, compared with 9.7, 20.5, and 21.7 micrograms/m3 for daily mean overall apartment, outdoor, and ambient (i.e., platform) concentrations, respectively. The daily mean personal PM2.5 exposure during the spring study period was 11.1 micrograms/m3, compared with 8.0, 10.1, and 8.6 micrograms/m3 for the daily mean apartment, outdoor, and ambient concentrations, respectively.

Compartment model approaches for estimating the parameters of a chronic disease process under changing risk factor exposures.

Compartment model approaches have been proposed for the analysis of the age incidence of specific types of cancer. These models represented the age increases in incidence as the result of a compound hazard function where individual level risks were described by the Weibull hazard function and where the population level hazard rate is a continuous mixture of the Weibull hazards. These formulations assumed that the mixing function, which described differences in risk due to different exposure histories, was constant after the age at which the model was first applied. In this paper we show how the mixing distribution can be allowed to change with time reflecting changing exposures. The model is fitted to U.S. lung cancer mortality data where for recent male cohorts there appear to be changing patterns of exposure possibly related to recent declines in male smoking. The implications for future lung cancer mortality trends in the United States are discussed.

Differential impact of hypothermia and pentobarbital on brain-stem auditory evoked responses.

Two experiments were conducted to determine the effects of hypothermia and pentobarbital anesthesia, alone and in combination, on the brain-stem auditory evoked responses (BAERs) of rats. In experiment I, unanesthetized rats were cooled to colonic temperatures 0.5 and 1.0 degrees C below normal. In experiment II, 2 groups of rats were cooled and tested at 37.5, 36.0, 34.5 and 31.5 degrees C. One group was anesthetized during testing and the other group was awake. The rat BAER was sensitive to cooling of 1 degree C or less. Peak latencies were prolonged and peak-to-peak amplitudes were increased by hypothermia alone. The effect on amplitude may be related to the time course of temperature change or to stimulus level. Pentobarbital significantly affected both latencies and amplitudes over and above the effects of cooling. The specific effects of pentobarbital differed by BAER peak and by temperature. The findings point up the importance of the potential confound of anesthetic drugs in most of the evoked potential literature on hypothermia and, for the first time, quantify the complex interactions between pentobarbital and temperature which affect the BAER wave form.

Trace elements in hair, as related to exposure in metropolitan New York.

Previous studies have revealed that trace element concentrations in hair can reflect exposure in cases of frank poisoning and deficiency. This study reports significant correlations within a single metropolitan area between trace-element content of hair and exposure (as measured by analyses for the corresponding elements in dustfall or housedust) for Ba, Cr, Pb, Hg, Ni, Sn, and V. Age, sex, hair color, and smoking habits were factors included in the statistical evaluation. Several metals increase and decrease together in the hair specimens, in agreement with trends reported for other human tissues.

Comparison of chlordimeform and carbaryl using a functional observational battery.

The effects of the formamidine pesticide chlordimeform (CDM), and the carbamate carbaryl (CAR) were compared using a functional observational battery (FOB). The FOB, a series of observations and measurements that can be rapidly administered to toxicant-treated rats, includes home-cage and open-field observations, neuromuscular and sensorimotor tests, and physiological measures. Evaluations were made according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency testing guidelines so as to determine dose-, time-, and sex-related toxicant effects. Long-Evans hooded rats of both sexes were tested initially and then dosed ip with either vehicle, CDM (1, 25, 56 mg/kg) or CAR (3, 10, 30 mg/kg), and tested at various times after dosing (for CDM 1, 5, 24 hr; for CAR 0.5, 3, 24, 48 hr). Both compounds affected general activity (home-cage and open-field), equilibrium, CNS excitability, and sensory responsiveness. Whereas similar decreases were obtained on rearing, gait, and arousal, there were important qualitative differences in the effects of CAR and CDM on reactions to handling and the reflex tests in that CDM increased excitability and enhanced responses to several stimuli but CAR either had no effect or decreased these measures. Only CDM produced an increase in muscle tone as measured by grip strength, and only CAR produced cholinergic autonomic signs of intoxication. Body weight and temperature were decreased by both compounds. Thus, the profiles of effect produced by these two pesticides could be clearly differentiated using the FOB.

Blood trace metals in military recruits.

Whole blood samples obtained from 2,000 military recruits were analyzed for cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc by atomic absorption spectroscopy. Whole blood copper levels were symmetrically distributed and those for cadmium, lead, and zinc were positively skewed. Average whole blood levels for copper and zinc were generally comparable to published values, but cadmium and lead values were somewhat higher, suggesting possible absorption of trace metals from containers during storage. Average cadmium and zinc levels were similar among blacks and whites, whereas average copper and lead levels were significantly higher in blacks. Cigarette smokers had higher copper levels than nonsmokers. Cadmium and zinc whole blood levels varied inversely with educational attainment. Copper, lead, and zinc levels varied by place of residence, suggesting the influence of dietary or other factors. Future studies characterizing trace metal body burdens or relating trace metals to diseases must carefully measure such pertinent attributes as age, sex, race or ethnic group, smoking habits, diet, and environmental exposure.

Temperature-dependent changes in visual evoked potentials of rats.

The effects of alterations in body temperature on flash and pattern reversal evoked potentials (FEPs and PREPs) were examined in hooded rats whose thermoregulatory capacity was compromised with lesions of the preoptic/anterior hypothalamic area and/or cold restraint. Body temperature, measured with a rectal thermometer, was manipulated via exposure to different ambient temperatures. To describe the data, a model was used in which both linear and quadratic relationships could be estimated. PREP amplitudes were not significantly influenced by body temperature over the range of 27-42 degrees C, although in one experiment FEP amplitudes did show a linear decline as temperatures fell below approximately 30 degrees C. Both FEP and PREP latencies were strongly influenced by temperature and became progressively longer as body temperature was lowered. The non-linear component affecting latencies became more prominent as body temperature decreased. These data demonstrate the temperature dependence of FEP and PREP latencies independent of anesthetic or other drugs.

Empirical Bayes procedures for stabilizing maps of U.S. cancer mortality rates.

"The geographic mapping of age-standardized, cause-specific death rates is a powerful tool for identifying possible etiologic factors, because the spatial distribution of mortality risks can be examined for correlations with the spatial distribution of disease-specific risk factors. This article presents a two-stage empirical Bayes procedure for calculating age-standardized cancer death rates, for use in mapping, which are adjusted for the stochasticity of rates in small area populations. Using the adjusted rates helps isolate and identify spatial patterns in the rates. The model is applied to sex-specific data on U.S. county cancer mortality in the white population for 15 cancer sites for three decades: 1950-1959, 1960-1969, and 1970-1979. Selected results are presented as maps of county death rates for white males."

Influence of antibiotics on intestinal tract survival and translocation of environmental Pseudomonas species.

The environmental release of microorganisms has prompted the investigation of potential health effects associated with their release. In this study, survival and translocation to the spleen and liver of several environmental Pseudomonas spp. were investigated in antibiotic-treated mice. Pseudomonas aeruginosa BC16 and P. maltophilia BC6, isolated from a commercial product for polychlorinated biphenyl degradation; P. aeruginosa AC869, a 3,5-dichlorobenzoate degrader; and P. cepacia AC1100, an organism that metabolizes 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid were examined for their survival capabilities in the intestines of mice dosed with clindamycin, kanamycin, rifampin, or spectinomycin. A mouse intestinal isolate, strain PAMG, was included in the study. Following antibiotic pretreatment (1 mg twice daily for 3 days), mice were dosed by gavage with 10(9) CFU of each Pseudomonas strain. At the end of the 5-day test period, strains AC869 and PAMG survived in kanamycin-, rifampin-, spectinomycin-, and clindamycin-treated animals. A statistically significant (P less than 0.05) increase in survival of strain PAMG was observed in clindamycin-, kanamycin-, and spectinomycin-treated mice for the test period. Treatment with clindamycin or rifampin increased (P less than 0.05) survival of strain BC6, an organism resistant to both antibiotics. However, strain BC6 was detected only in rifampin-treated mice at the end of the 5-day test period. Strain BC16, a clindamycin-resistant strain, was detected in clindamycin-treated mice and the untreated control animals. Rifampin had a negative effect (P less than 0.05) on strain AC869 and PAMG survival. Translocation to the spleen was observed in spectinomycin- and clindamycin-treated mice but was not detected in kanamycin- or rifampin-treated animals.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Distribution, clearance, and mortality of environmental pseudomonads in mice upon intranasal exposure.

When introduced intranasally, P. cepacia AC1100 (approximately 10(8) CFU/animal) and P. aeruginosa AC869 (approximately 10(3) CFU/animal) were readily cleared from the mouse. However, a approximately 10(7)-CFU dose of AC869 persisted for 14 days. Strain AC869 had a 50% lethal dose of 2.7 x 10(7) CFU. Slight morbidity occurred in animals treated with approximately 10(7) CFU of AC869 or approximately 10(8) CFU of AC1100.

Pulmonary clearance and inflammatory response in C3H/HeJ mice after intranasal exposure to Pseudomonas spp.

The environmental release of engineered microorganisms has caused health and environmental concerns. In this study, an animal model was used to examine health effects following pulmonary exposure to environmental and clinical isolates. In order to rule out the possibility that an adverse response was caused by endotoxin, 50% lethal doses (LD50) were determined, when possible, with endotoxin-sensitive (C3HeB/FeJ) and endotoxin-resistant (C3H/HeJ) mice by using both environmental isolates (Pseudomonas aeruginosa BC16, BC17, BC18, and AC869 and Pseudomonas maltophilia BC6) and clinical isolates (P. aeruginosa PAO1 and DG1). The LD50 of strains AC869, DG1, and PAO1 are 1.05 x 10(7), 6.56 x 10(6), and 1.02 x 10(7) CFU, respectively, in C3HeB/FeJ mice and 1.05 x 10(7), 1.00 x 10(7), and 2.75 x 10(6) CFU, respectively, in C3H/HeJ mice. Strains BC17 and BC18 were not lethal to the animals. On the basis of the LD50 data, an appropriate sublethal dose (approximately 10(6) CFU) was selected. Animals were challenged intranasally with microorganisms, and clearance from the lungs and nasal cavity was determined. Strains BC17, BC18, and AC869 were not detected in lungs or nasal washes 14 days following treatment. Strains BC6, BC16, and DG1 were recovered from the nasal cavities at the end of the experiment. Only strain PAO1 was detected in lungs and in nasal cavities 14 days after treatment. At selected intervals following treatment, the percentages of polymorphonuclear leukocytes and lymphocytes in bronchoalveolar lavage samples were determined. P. aeruginosa AC869, PAO1, and DG1 elicited a relatively strong inflammatory response which was indirectly related to lung clearance.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)