Simple steps towards improving safety in obstetric airway management: A quality improvement project.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines from the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association and Difficult Airway Society state that 'a videolaryngoscope should be immediately available for all obstetric general anaesthetics'. OBJECTIVE: To report the incidence of videolaryngoscopy use, and other airway management safety interventions, in an obstetric population before and after various quality improvement interventions. DESIGN: Prospective data collection was undertaken over 18 months, divided into three separate 6-month periods: June to November 2019; March to August 2021; January to June 2022. These periods relate to evaluation of specific quality improvement interventions. SETTING: The project was carried out in a large tertiary referral obstetric unit. PATIENTS: We identified 401 pregnant women (> 20 weeks' gestation) and postnatal women (up to 48 h post delivery) undergoing an obstetric surgical procedure under general anaesthesia. INTERVENTIONS: To standardise practice, an intubation checklist was introduced in December 2020 and multidisciplinary staff training in August 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome measures were use of a Macintosh-style videolaryngoscope and tracheal intubation success. Secondary outcome measures were use of an intubation checklist; low flow nasal oxygen; and ramped patient positioning. RESULTS: Data from 334 tracheal intubations (83.3% of cases) were recorded. Videolaryngoscope use increased from 60% in 2019, to 88% in 2021, to 94% in 2022. Tracheal intubation was successful in all patients, with 94% first pass success overall and only 0.9% requiring three attempts. Use of secondary outcome measures also increased: low flow nasal oxygen from 48% in 2019 to 90% in 2022; ramped positioning from 95% in 2021 to 97% in 2022; and checklist use from 63% in 2021 to 92% in 2022. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the successful adoption of simple safety measures introduced into routine practice. These comprised videolaryngoscopy, ramped positioning and low flow nasal oxygen. Their introduction was supported by the implementation of an intubation checklist and multidisciplinary team training.

Tuberculosis risk among people with diabetes mellitus in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: People with diabetes mellitus (DM) have a higher tuberculosis (TB) risk, but the evidence from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was scarce until recently and not included in earlier global summaries. Therefore, this systematic review aims to determine the risk of active TB disease among people with DM in SSA and whether HIV alters this association. METHODS: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Global Health and African Index Medicus were searched between January 1980 and February 2021. Cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies from SSA, which assessed the association between DM and active TB, were included if adjusted for age. Two researchers independently assessed titles, abstracts, full texts, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. Estimates for the association between DM and TB were summarised using a random effects meta-analysis. PROSPERO: CRD42021241743. RESULTS: Nine eligible studies were identified, which reported on 110,905 people from 5 countries. Individual study odds ratios (OR) of the TB-DM association ranged from 0.88 (95% CI 0.17-4.58) to 10.7 (95% CI 4.5-26). The pooled OR was 2.77 (95% CI 1.90-4.05). High heterogeneity was reduced in sensitivity analysis (from I2  = 57% to I2  = 6.9%), by excluding one study which ascertained DM by HbA1c. Risk of bias varied widely between studies, especially concerning the way in which DM status was determined. CONCLUSIONS: There is a strong positive association between DM and active TB in SSA. More research is needed to determine whether HIV, a key risk factor for TB in SSA, modifies this relationship.

Premature mortality attributable to COVID-19: potential years of life lost in 17 countries around the world, January-August 2020.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). METHODS: Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. RESULTS: As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18-185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112-1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.

Impact of Intermediate Hyperglycemia and Diabetes on Immune Dysfunction in Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: People with diabetes have an increased risk of developing active tuberculosis (TB) and are more likely to have poor TB-treatment outcomes, which may impact on control of TB as the prevalence of diabetes is increasing worldwide. Blood transcriptomes are altered in patients with active TB relative to healthy individuals. The effects of diabetes and intermediate hyperglycemia (IH) on this transcriptomic signature were investigated to enhance understanding of immunological susceptibility in diabetes-TB comorbidity. METHODS: Whole blood samples were collected from active TB patients with diabetes (glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c] ≥6.5%) or IH (HbA1c = 5.7% to <6.5%), TB-only patients, and healthy controls in 4 countries: South Africa, Romania, Indonesia, and Peru. Differential blood gene expression was determined by RNA-seq (n = 249). RESULTS: Diabetes increased the magnitude of gene expression change in the host transcriptome in TB, notably showing an increase in genes associated with innate inflammatory and decrease in adaptive immune responses. Strikingly, patients with IH and TB exhibited blood transcriptomes much more similar to patients with diabetes-TB than to patients with only TB. Both diabetes-TB and IH-TB patients had a decreased type I interferon response relative to TB-only patients. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidity in individuals with both TB and diabetes is associated with altered transcriptomes, with an expected enhanced inflammation in the presence of both conditions, but also reduced type I interferon responses in comorbid patients, suggesting an unexpected uncoupling of the TB transcriptome phenotype. These immunological dysfunctions are also present in individuals with IH, showing that altered immunity to TB may also be present in this group. The TB disease outcomes in individuals with IH diagnosed with TB should be investigated further.

Hand-washing promotion for preventing diarrhoea.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea accounts for 1.8 million deaths in children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). One of the identified strategies to prevent diarrhoea is hand washing. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of hand-washing promotion interventions on diarrhoeal episodes in children and adults. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, nine other databases, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trial Registry Platform (ICTRP), and metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) on 8 January 2020, together with reference checking, citation searching and contact with study authors to identify additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Individually-randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs that compared the effects of hand-washing interventions on diarrhoea episodes in children and adults with no intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three review authors independently assessed trial eligibility, extracted data, and assessed risks of bias. We stratified the analyses for child day-care centres or schools, community, and hospital-based settings. Where appropriate, we pooled incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using the generic inverse variance method and a random-effects model with a 95% confidence interval (CI). We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the evidence. MAIN RESULTS: We included 29 RCTs: 13 trials from child day-care centres or schools in mainly high-income countries (54,471 participants), 15 community-based trials in LMICs (29,347 participants), and one hospital-based trial among people with AIDS in a high-income country (148 participants). All the trials and follow-up assessments were of short-term duration. Hand-washing promotion (education activities, sometimes with provision of soap) at child day-care facilities or schools prevent around one-third of diarrhoea episodes in high-income countries (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.70, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.85; 9 trials, 4664 participants, high-certainty evidence) and may prevent a similar proportion in LMICs, but only two trials from urban Egypt and Kenya have evaluated this (IRR 0.66, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.99; 2 trials, 45,380 participants; low-certainty evidence). Only four trials reported measures of behaviour change, and the methods of data collection were susceptible to bias. In one trial from the USA hand-washing behaviour was reported to improve; and in the trial from Kenya that provided free soap, hand washing did not increase, but soap use did (data not pooled; 3 trials, 1845 participants; low-certainty evidence). Hand-washing promotion among communities in LMICs probably prevents around one-quarter of diarrhoea episodes (IRR 0.71, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.81; 9 trials, 15,950 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). However, six of these nine trials were from Asian settings, with only one trial from South America and two trials from sub-Saharan Africa. In seven trials, soap was provided free alongside hand-washing education, and the overall average effect size was larger than in the two trials which did not provide soap (soap provided: RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.75; 7 trials, 12,646 participants; education only: RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.05; 2 trials, 3304 participants). There was increased hand washing at major prompts (before eating or cooking, after visiting the toilet, or cleaning the baby's bottom) and increased compliance with hand-hygiene procedure (behavioural outcome) in the intervention groups compared with the control in community trials (data not pooled: 4 trials, 3591 participants; high-certainty evidence). Hand-washing promotion for the one trial conducted in a hospital among a high-risk population showed significant reduction in mean episodes of diarrhoea (1.68 fewer) in the intervention group (mean difference -1.68, 95% CI -1.93 to -1.43; 1 trial, 148 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Hand-washing frequency increased to seven times a day in the intervention group versus three times a day in the control arm in this hospital trial (1 trial, 148 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). We found no trials evaluating the effects of hand-washing promotions on diarrhoea-related deaths or cost effectiveness. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Hand-washing promotion probably reduces diarrhoea episodes in both child day-care centres in high-income countries and among communities living in LMICs by about 30%. The included trials do not provide evidence about the long-term impact of the interventions.

ANTECEDENTES: La diarrea es responsable de 1 800 000 muertes de niños en los países de ingresos bajos y medios (PIBM). Una de las estrategias identificadas para prevenir la diarrea es el lavado de manos. OBJETIVOS: Evaluar los efectos de las intervenciones de promoción del lavado de manos sobre los episodios de diarrea en niños y adultos. MÉTODOS DE BÚSQUEDA: El 8 de enero de 2020 se realizaron búsquedas en CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, en otras nueve bases de datos, la Plataforma de registros internacionales de ensayos clínicos (ICTRP) de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y el metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT), además de comprobación de referencias, búsqueda de citas y contacto con los autores de los estudios para identificar estudios adicionales. CRITERIOS DE SELECCIÓN: Ensayos controlados aleatorizados (ECA) individuales y por conglomerados que compararon los efectos de las intervenciones de lavado de manos sobre los episodios de diarrea en niños y adultos, con ninguna intervención. OBTENCIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE LOS DATOS: Dos autores de la revisión, de forma independiente, evaluaron la elegibilidad de los ensayos, extrajeron los datos y evaluaron los riesgos de sesgo. Los análisis se estratificaron por guarderías infantiles o escuelas, comunidad y contextos hospitalarios. Cuando fue conveniente, se agruparon los cocientes de la tasa de incidencia (CTI) según el método de la varianza inversa genérica y un modelo de efectos aleatorios con un intervalo de confianza (IC) del 95%. Se utilizaron los criterios GRADE para evaluar la certeza de la evidencia. RESULTADOS PRINCIPALES: Se incluyeron 29 ECA: 13 ensayos de guarderías infantiles o escuelas en países principalmente de ingresos altos (54 471 participantes), 15 ensayos comunitarios en PIMB (29 347 participantes) y un ensayo hospitalario en pacientes con sida en países de ingresos altos (148 participantes). Todos los ensayos y evaluaciones de seguimiento fueron a corto plazo. La promoción del lavado de manos (actividades educativas, a veces con la provisión de jabón) en las guarderías infantiles o las escuelas previene alrededor de un tercio de los episodios de diarrea en los países de ingresos altos (cociente de tasa de incidencia [CTI] 0,70; IC del 95%: 0,58 a 0,85; nueve ensayos, 4664 participantes, evidencia de certeza alta), y podría prevenir una proporción similar en los PIMB, pero solo dos ensayos en zonas urbanas de Egipto y Kenya lo han evaluado (CTI 0,66; IC del 95%: 0,43 a 0,99; dos ensayos, 45 380 participantes, evidencia de certeza baja). Solo cuatro ensayos informaron sobre medidas de cambio en el comportamiento y los métodos de recopilación de datos fueron susceptibles de sesgo. En un ensayo de los EE.UU. se informó de que el comportamiento de lavado de manos mejoró; y en el ensayo de Kenya que proporcionó jabón gratuito, el lavado de manos no aumentó, pero sí el uso de jabón (datos no agrupados; tres ensayos, 1845 participantes, evidencia de certeza baja). La promoción del lavado de manos entre las comunidades en los PIMB probablemente previene alrededor de una cuarta parte de los episodios de diarrea (CTI 0,71; IC del 95%: 0,62 a 0,81; nueve ensayos, 15 950 participantes, evidencia de calidad moderada). Sin embargo, seis de estos nueve ensayos procedían de entornos asiáticos, y solo hubo un ensayo en América del Sur y dos en el África subsahariana. En siete ensayos, el jabón se suministró gratuitamente junto con la educación para el lavado de manos, y el tamaño del efecto medio general fue mayor que en los dos ensayos que no suministraron jabón (jabón suministrado: RR 0,66; IC del 95%: 0,58 a 0,75; siete ensayos, 12 646 participantes; solo educación: RR 0,84; IC del 95%: 0,67 a 1,05; dos ensayos, 3304 participantes). Hubo un aumento del lavado de manos en los momentos más importantes (antes de comer o cocinar, después de ir al baño o de limpiar el trasero del niño), y un aumento en el cumplimiento del procedimiento de higiene de las manos (resultado conductual) en los grupos de intervención, en comparación el control, en los ensayos comunitarios (datos no agrupados: cuatro ensayos, 3591 participantes; evidencia de certeza alta). La promoción del lavado de manos en el único ensayo realizado en un hospital en una población de alto riesgo mostró una reducción significativa de los episodios medios de diarrea (1,68 menos) en el grupo de intervención (diferencia de medias ­1,68; IC del 95%: ­1,93 a ­1,43; un ensayo, 148 participantes, evidencia de certeza moderada). En este ensayo hospitalario la frecuencia del lavado de manos aumentó hasta siete veces al día en el grupo de intervención versus tres veces al día en el grupo control (un ensayo, 148 participantes, evidencia de certeza moderada). No se encontraron ensayos que evaluaran los efectos de la promoción del lavado de manos sobre las muertes relacionadas con la diarrea ni el coste­efectividad. CONCLUSIONES DE LOS AUTORES: La promoción del lavado de manos probablemente reduce los episodios de diarrea en las guarderías infantiles de los países de altos ingresos y en las comunidades que viven en los PIMB, en aproximadamente el 30%. Los ensayos incluidos no aportan evidencia sobre el efecto a largo plazo de esta intervención.

Diabetes Mellitus Among Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients From 4 Tuberculosis-endemic Countries: The TANDEM Study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases active tuberculosis (TB) risk and worsens TB outcomes, jeopardizing TB control especially in TB-endemic countries with rising DM prevalence rates. We assessed DM status and clinical correlates in TB patients across settings in Indonesia, Peru, Romania, and South Africa. METHODS: Age-adjusted DM prevalence was estimated using laboratory glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) or fasting plasma glucose in TB patients. Detailed and standardized sociodemographic, anthropometric, and clinical measurements were made. Characteristics of TB patients with or without DM were compared using multilevel mixed-effect regression models with robust standard errors. RESULTS: Of 2185 TB patients (median age 36.6 years, 61.2% male, 3.8% human immunodeficiency virus-infected), 12.5% (267/2128) had DM, one third of whom were newly diagnosed. Age-standardized DM prevalence ranged from 10.9% (South Africa) to 19.7% (Indonesia). Median HbA1c in TB-DM patients ranged from 7.4% (Romania) to 11.3% (Indonesia). Compared to those without DM, TB-DM patients were older and had a higher body mass index (BMI) (P value < .05). Compared to those with newly diagnosed DM, TB patients with diagnosed DM had higher BMI and HbA1c, less severe TB, and more frequent comorbidities, DM complications, and hypertension (P value < .05). CONCLUSIONS: We show that DM prevalence and clinical characteristics of TB-DM vary across settings. Diabetes is primarily known but untreated, hyperglycemia is often severe, and many patients with TB-DM have significant cardiovascular disease risk and severe TB. This underlines the need to improve strategies for better clinical management of combined TB and DM.

An international survey of airway management education in 61 countries†.

BACKGROUND: Deficiencies in airway management skills and judgement contribute to poor outcomes. Airway management practice guidelines emphasise the importance of education. Little is known about the global uptake of guidelines, availability of equipment, provision of training, assessment of skills, and confidence with procedures. METHODS: We devised a survey to examine these issues. Initially, 24 127 anaesthetists were questioned in New Zealand, Canada, South Africa, UK, India, and Germany, representing the home countries of the members of the Worldwide Airway Meeting (2015) Education Group; however, the survey could be forwarded to others. The survey was open for a maximum of 90 days. RESULTS: We received 4948 fully or partially completed surveys from 61 countries: 33 high-income and 28 middle- or low-income countries. Most respondents were consultants (77.2%, n=4948), and the remainder trainees, with a male/female ratio of 1.8:1 (3105 males, n=4866). Of those responding, 1358 (76.6%, n=1798) were members of an airway interest group. Most respondents (91.3% of 2910) agreed with assessment of airway skills, fewer (2237; 59.7%, n=3750) reported requiring airway training for completion of training, and only 810 (33.6%, n=2408) reported it as a requirement for continuing medical education. Reported confidence was lowest for awake tracheal intubation, front-of-neck access, and retrograde intubation. CONCLUSIONS: Global training is variable in its delivery and necessity. Confidence is limited in potentially life-saving techniques. The desire for assessment appears universal and may improve standards, but in resource- or time-limited environments this will be challenging.

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.

Accuracy of diabetes screening methods used for people with tuberculosis, Indonesia, Peru, Romania, South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of diagnostic tools for diabetes mellitus, including laboratory methods and clinical risk scores, in newly-diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis patients from four middle-income countries. METHODS: In a multicentre, prospective study, we recruited 2185 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis from sites in Indonesia, Peru, Romania and South Africa from January 2014 to September 2016. Using laboratory-measured glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) as the gold standard, we measured the diagnostic accuracy of random plasma glucose, point-of-care HbA1c, fasting blood glucose, urine dipstick, published and newly derived diabetes mellitus risk scores and anthropometric measurements. We also analysed combinations of tests, including a two-step test using point-of-care HbA1cwhen initial random plasma glucose was ≥ 6.1 mmol/L. FINDINGS: The overall crude prevalence of diabetes mellitus among newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients was 283/2185 (13.0%; 95% confidence interval, CI: 11.6-14.4). The marker with the best diagnostic accuracy was point-of-care HbA1c (area under receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75-0.86). A risk score derived using age, point-of-care HbA1c and random plasma glucose had the best overall diagnostic accuracy (area under curve: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.81-0.90). There was substantial heterogeneity between sites for all markers, but the two-step combination test performed well in Indonesia and Peru. CONCLUSION: Random plasma glucose followed by point-of-care HbA1c testing can accurately diagnose diabetes in tuberculosis patients, particularly those with substantial hyperglycaemia, while reducing the need for more expensive point-of-care HbA1c testing. Risk scores with or without biochemical data may be useful but require validation.

Disease characteristics and treatment of patients with diabetes mellitus attending government health services in Indonesia, Peru, Romania and South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the characteristics and management of Diabetes mellitus (DM) patients from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). METHODS: We systematically characterised consecutive DM patients attending public health services in urban settings in Indonesia, Peru, Romania and South Africa, collecting data on DM treatment history, complications, drug treatment, obesity, HbA1c and cardiovascular risk profile; and assessing treatment gaps against relevant national guidelines. RESULTS: Patients (median 59 years, 62.9% female) mostly had type 2 diabetes (96%), half for >5 years (48.6%). Obesity (45.5%) and central obesity (females 84.8%; males 62.7%) were common. The median HbA1c was 8.7% (72 mmol/mol), ranging from 7.7% (61 mmol/mol; Peru) to 10.4% (90 mmol/mol; South Africa). Antidiabetes treatment included metformin (62.6%), insulin (37.8%), and other oral glucose-lowering drugs (34.8%). Disease complications included eyesight problems (50.4%), EGFR <60 ml/min (18.9%), heart disease (16.5%) and proteinuria (14.7%). Many had an elevated cardiovascular risk with elevated blood pressure (36%), LDL (71.0%) and smoking (13%), but few were taking antihypertensive drugs (47.1%), statins (28.5%) and aspirin (30.0%) when indicated. Few patients on insulin (8.0%), statins (8.4%) and antihypertensives (39.5%) reached treatment targets according to national guidelines. There were large differences between countries in terms of disease profile and medication use. CONCLUSION: DM patients in government clinics in four LMIC with considerable growth of DM have insufficient glycaemic control, frequent macrovascular and other complications, and insufficient preventive measures for cardiovascular disease. These findings underline the need to identify treatment barriers and secure optimal DM care in such settings.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of eliminating industrial and all trans fats in England and Wales: modelling study.

Introduction: Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020. Methods: We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020. We modelled two policy scenarios: 1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy 2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0. Results: Elimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100 m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains. Conclusions: Eliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings.

Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0-5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9-76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9-81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3-43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9-27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1-2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7-41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1-12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4-12·0]). INTERPRETATION: Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

Estimating the potential contribution of stroke treatments and preventative policies to reduce the stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality in Turkey up to 2032: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke and Ischemic Heart Diseases (IHD) are the main cause of premature deaths globally, including Turkey. There is substantial potential to reduce stroke and IHD mortality burden; particularly by improving diet and health behaviours at the population level. Our aim is to estimate and compare the potential impact of ischemic stroke treatment vs population level policies on ischemic stroke and IHD deaths in Turkey if achieved like other developed countries up to 2022 and 2032. METHODS: We developed a Markov model for the Turkish population aged >35 years. The model follows the population over a time horizon of 10 and 20 years. We modelled seven policy scenarios: a baseline scenario, three ischemic stroke treatment improvement scenarios and three population level policy intervention scenarios (based on target reductions in dietary salt, transfat and unsaturated fat intake, smoking prevalence and increases in fruit and vegetable consumption). Parameter uncertainty was explored by including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, we forecast that approximately 655,180 ischemic stroke and IHD deaths (306,500 in men; 348,600 in women) may occur in the age group of 35-94 between 2012 and 2022 in Turkey. Feasible interventions in population level policies might prevent approximately 108,000 (62,580-326,700) fewer stroke and IHD deaths. This could result in approximately a 17% reduction in total stroke and IHD deaths in 2022. Approximately 32%, 29%, 11% and 6% of that figure could be attributed to a decreased consumption of transfat, dietary salt, saturated fats and fall in smoking prevalence and 22% could be attributed to increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Feasible improvements in ischemic stroke treatment could prevent approximately 9% fewer ischemic stroke and IHD deaths by 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling study suggests that effective and evidence-based food policies at the population level could massively contribute to reduction in ischemic stroke and IHD mortality in a decade and deliver bigger gains compared to healthcare based interventions for primary and secondary prevention.

Psychosocial interventions for smoking cessation in patients with coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: This is an update of a Cochrane review previously published in 2008. Smoking increases the risk of developing atherosclerosis but also acute thrombotic events. Quitting smoking is potentially the most effective secondary prevention measure and improves prognosis after a cardiac event, but more than half of the patients continue to smoke, and improved cessation aids are urgently required. OBJECTIVES: This review aimed to examine the efficacy of psychosocial interventions for smoking cessation in patients with coronary heart disease in short-term (6 to 12 month follow-up) and long-term (more than 12 months). Moderators of treatment effects (i.e. intervention types, treatment dose, methodological criteria) were used for stratification. SEARCH METHODS: The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (Issue 12, 2012), MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and PSYNDEX were searched from the start of the database to January 2013. This is an update of the initial search in 2003. Results were supplemented by cross-checking references, and handsearches in selected journals and systematic reviews. No language restrictions were applied. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in patients with CHD with a minimum follow-up of 6 months. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently assessed trial eligibility and risk of bias. Abstinence rates were computed according to an intention to treat analysis if possible, or if not according to completer analysis results only. Subgroups of specific intervention strategies were analysed separately. The impact of study quality on efficacy was studied in a moderator analysis. Risk ratios (RR) were pooled using the Mantel-Haenszel and random-effects model with 95% confidence intervals (CI). MAIN RESULTS: We found 40 RCTs meeting inclusion criteria in total (21 trials were new in this update, 5 new trials contributed to long-term results (more than 12 months)). Interventions consist of behavioural therapeutic approaches, telephone support and self-help material and were either focused on smoking cessation alone or addressed several risk factors (eg. obesity, inactivity and smoking). The trials mostly included older male patients with CHD, predominantly myocardial infarction (MI). After an initial selection of studies three trials with implausible large effects of RR > 5 which contributed to substantial heterogeneity were excluded. Overall there was a positive effect of interventions on abstinence after 6 to 12 months (risk ratio (RR) 1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13 to 1.32, I² 54%; abstinence rate treatment group = 46%, abstinence rate control group 37.4%), but heterogeneity between trials was substantial. Studies with validated assessment of smoking status at follow-up had similar efficacy (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.39) to non-validated trials (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.35). Studies were stratified by intervention strategy and intensity of the intervention. Clustering reduced heterogeneity, although many trials used more than one type of intervention. The RRs for different strategies were similar (behavioural therapies RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.34, I² 40%; telephone support RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.30, I² 44%; self-help RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.33, I² 40%). More intense interventions (any initial contact plus follow-up over one month) showed increased quit rates (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.40, I² 58%) whereas brief interventions (either one single initial contact lasting less than an hour with no follow-up, one or more contacts in total over an hour with no follow-up or any initial contact plus follow-up of less than one months) did not appear effective (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.12, I² 0%). Seven trials had long-term follow-up (over 12 months), and did not show any benefits. Adverse side effects were not reported in any trial. These findings are based on studies with rather low risk of selection bias but high risk of detection bias (namely unblinded or non validated assessment of smoking status). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Psychosocial smoking cessation interventions are effective in promoting abstinence up to 1 year, provided they are of sufficient duration. After one year, the studies showed favourable effects of smoking cessation intervention, but more studies including cost-effectiveness analyses are needed. Further studies should also analyse the additional benefit of a psychosocial intervention strategy to pharmacological therapy (e.g. nicotine replacement therapy) compared with pharmacological treatment alone and investigate economic outcomes.

Hand washing promotion for preventing diarrhoea.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea accounts for 1.8 million deaths in children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). One of the identified strategies to prevent diarrhoea is hand washing. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of hand washing promotion interventions on diarrhoeal episodes in children and adults. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register (27 May 2015); CENTRAL (published in the Cochrane Library 2015, Issue 5); MEDLINE (1966 to 27 May 2015); EMBASE (1974 to 27 May 2015); LILACS (1982 to 27 May 2015); PsycINFO (1967 to 27 May 2015); Science Citation Index and Social Science Citation Index (1981 to 27 May 2015); ERIC (1966 to 27 May 2015); SPECTR (2000 to 27 May 2015); Bibliomap (1990 to 27 May 2015); RoRe, The Grey Literature (2002 to 27 May 2015); World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trial Registry Platform (ICTRP), metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT), and reference lists of articles up to 27 May 2015. We also contacted researchers and organizations in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: Individually randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs that compared the effects of hand washing interventions on diarrhoea episodes in children and adults with no intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three review authors independently assessed trial eligibility, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. We stratified the analyses for child day-care centres or schools, community, and hospital-based settings. Where appropriate, incidence rate ratios (IRR) were pooled using the generic inverse variance method and random-effects model with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We used the GRADE approach to assess the quality of evidence. MAIN RESULTS: We included 22 RCTs: 12 trials from child day-care centres or schools in mainly high-income countries (54,006 participants), nine community-based trials in LMICs (15,303 participants), and one hospital-based trial among people with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) (148 participants).Hand washing promotion (education activities, sometimes with provision of soap) at child day-care facilities or schools prevents around one-third of diarrhoea episodes in high income countries (rate ratio 0.70; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.85; nine trials, 4664 participants, high quality evidence), and may prevent a similar proportion in LMICs but only two trials from urban Egypt and Kenya have evaluated this (rate ratio 0.66, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.99; two trials, 45,380 participants, low quality evidence). Only three trials reported measures of behaviour change and the methods of data collection were susceptible to bias. In one trial from the USA hand washing behaviour was reported to improve; and in the trial from Kenya that provided free soap, hand washing did not increase, but soap use did (data not pooled; three trials, 1845 participants, low quality evidence).Hand washing promotion among communities in LMICs probably prevents around one-quarter of diarrhoea episodes (rate ratio 0.72, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.83; eight trials, 14,726 participants, moderate quality evidence). However, six of these eight trials were from Asian settings, with only single trials from South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In six trials, soap was provided free alongside hand washing education, and the overall average effect size was larger than in the two trials which did not provide soap (soap provided: rate ratio 0.66, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.78; six trials, 11,422 participants; education only: rate ratio: 0.84, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.05; two trials, 3304 participants). There was increased hand washing at major prompts (before eating/cooking, after visiting the toilet or cleaning the baby's bottom), and increased compliance to hand hygiene procedure (behavioural outcome) in the intervention groups than the control in community trials (data not pooled: three trials, 3490 participants, high quality evidence).Hand washing promotion for the one trial conducted in a hospital among high-risk population showed significant reduction in mean episodes of diarrhoea (1.68 fewer) in the intervention group (Mean difference 1.68, 95% CI 1.93 to 1.43; one trial, 148 participants, moderate quality evidence). There was increase in hand washing frequency, seven times per day in the intervention group versus three times in the control in this hospital trial (one trial, 148 participants, moderate quality evidence).We found no trials evaluating or reporting the effects of hand washing promotions on diarrhoea-related deaths, all-cause-under five mortality, or costs. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Hand washing promotion probably reduces diarrhoea episodes in both child day-care centres in high-income countries and among communities living in LMICs by about 30%. However, less is known about how to help people maintain hand washing habits in the longer term.

Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys.

An economic evaluation of salt reduction policies to reduce coronary heart disease in England: a policy modeling study.

OBJECTIVES: Dietary salt intake has been causally linked to high blood pressure and increased risk of cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular disease causes approximately 35% of total UK deaths, at an estimated annual cost of £30 billion. The World Health Organization and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence have recommended a reduction in the intake of salt in people's diets. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of four population health policies to reduce dietary salt intake on an English population to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: The validated IMPACT CHD model was used to quantify and compare four policies: 1) Change4Life health promotion campaign, 2) front-of-pack traffic light labeling to display salt content, 3) Food Standards Agency working with the food industry to reduce salt (voluntary), and 4) mandatory reformulation to reduce salt in processed foods. The effectiveness of these policies in reducing salt intake, and hence blood pressure, was determined by systematic literature review. The model calculated the reduction in mortality associated with each policy, quantified as life-years gained over 10 years. Policy costs were calculated using evidence from published sources. Health care costs for specific CHD patient groups were estimated. Costs were compared against a "do nothing" baseline. RESULTS: All policies resulted in a life-year gain over the baseline. Change4life and labeling each gained approximately 1960 life-years, voluntary reformulation 14,560 life-years, and mandatory reformulation 19,320 life-years. Each policy appeared cost saving, with mandatory reformulation offering the largest cost saving, more than £660 million. CONCLUSIONS: All policies to reduce dietary salt intake could gain life-years and reduce health care expenditure on coronary heart disease.