Agreement and Predictors of Discordance of 6 Visual Field Progression Algorithms.

PURPOSE: To determine the agreement of 6 established visual field (VF) progression algorithms in a large dataset of VFs from multiple institutions and to determine predictors of discordance among these algorithms. DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Visual fields from 5 major eye care institutions in the United States were analyzed, including a subset of eyes with at least 5 Swedish interactive threshold algorithm standard 24-2 VFs that met our reliability criteria. Of a total of 831 240 VFs, a subset of 90 713 VFs from 13 156 eyes of 8499 patients met the inclusion criteria. METHODS: Six commonly used VF progression algorithms (mean deviation [MD] slope, VF index slope, Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study, Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study, pointwise linear regression, and permutation of pointwise linear regression) were applied to this cohort, and each eye was determined to be stable or progressing using each measure. Agreement between individual algorithms was tested using Cohen's κ coefficient. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine predictors of discordance (3 algorithms progressing and 3 algorithms stable). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Agreement and discordance between algorithms. RESULTS: Individual algorithms showed poor to moderate agreement with each other when compared directly (κ range, 0.12-0.52). Based on at least 4 algorithms, 11.7% of eyes progressed. Major predictors of discordance or lack of agreement among algorithms were more depressed initial MD (P < 0.01) and older age at first available VF (P < 0.01). A greater number of VFs (P < 0.01), more years of follow-up (P < 0.01), and eye care institution (P = 0.03) also were associated with discordance. CONCLUSIONS: This extremely large comparative series demonstrated that existing algorithms have limited agreement and that agreement varies with clinical parameters, including institution. These issues underscore the challenges to the clinical use and application of progression algorithms and of applying big-data results to individual practices.

Development and Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms to Determine Visual Field Progression.

Purpose: To develop and test machine learning classifiers (MLCs) for determining visual field progression. Methods: In total, 90,713 visual fields from 13,156 eyes were included. Six different progression algorithms (linear regression of mean deviation, linear regression of the visual field index, Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study algorithm, Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study algorithm, pointwise linear regression [PLR], and permutation of PLR) were applied to classify each eye as progressing or stable. Six MLCs were applied (logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, support vector classifier, convolutional neural network, fully connected neural network) using a training and testing set. For MLC input, visual fields for a given eye were divided into the first and second half and each location averaged over time within each half. Each algorithm was tested for accuracy, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and class bias with a subset of visual fields labeled by a panel of three experts from 161 eyes. Results: MLCs had similar performance metrics as some of the conventional algorithms and ranged from 87% to 91% accurate with sensitivity ranging from 0.83 to 0.88 and specificity from 0.92 to 0.96. All conventional algorithms showed significant class bias, meaning each individual algorithm was more likely to grade uncertain cases as either progressing or stable (P ≤ 0.01). Conversely, all MLCs were balanced, meaning they were equally likely to grade uncertain cases as either progressing or stable (P ≥ 0.08). Conclusions: MLCs showed a moderate to high level of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity and were more balanced than conventional algorithms. Translational Relevance: MLCs may help to determine visual field progression.