A Bayesian nonparametric approach for multiple mediators with applications in mental health studies.

Mediation analysis with contemporaneously observed multiple mediators is a significant area of causal inference. Recent approaches for multiple mediators are often based on parametric models and thus may suffer from model misspecification. Also, much of the existing literature either only allow estimation of the joint mediation effect or estimate the joint mediation effect just as the sum of individual mediator effects, ignoring the interaction among the mediators. In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric method that overcomes the two aforementioned drawbacks. We model the joint distribution of the observed data (outcome, mediators, treatment, and confounders) flexibly using an enriched Dirichlet process mixture with three levels. We use standardization (g-computation) to compute all possible mediation effects, including pairwise and all other possible interaction among the mediators. We thoroughly explore our method via simulations and apply our method to a mental health data from Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, where we estimate how the effect of births from unintended pregnancies on later life mental depression (CES-D) among the mothers is mediated through lack of self-acceptance and autonomy, employment instability, lack of social participation, and increased family stress. Our method identified significant individual mediators, along with some significant pairwise effects.

Clinical and Adverse Outcomes Associated With Concomitant Use of CYP2D6-Metabolized Opioids With Antidepressants in Older Nursing Home Residents : A Target Trial Emulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on the safety of pharmacokinetic interactions of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2D6 (CYP2D6)-metabolized opioids with antidepressants among older nursing home (NH) residents. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of concomitant use of CYP2D6-metabolized opioids and antidepressants with clinical outcomes and opioid-related adverse events (ORAEs). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using a target trial emulation framework. SETTING: 100% Medicare NH sample linked to Minimum Data Set (MDS) from 2010 to 2021. PARTICIPANTS: Long-term residents aged 65 years and older receiving CYP2D6-metabolized opioids with a disease indication for antidepressant use. INTERVENTION: Initiating CYP2D6-inhibiting versus CYP2D6-neutral antidepressants that overlapped with use of CYP2D6-metabolized opioids for 1 day or more. MEASUREMENTS: Clinical outcomes were worsening pain, physical function, and depression from baseline to quarterly MDS assessments and were analyzed using modified Poisson regression models. The ORAE outcomes included counts of pain-related hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits, opioid use disorder (OUD), and opioid overdose and were analyzed with negative binomial or Poisson regression models. All models were adjusted for baseline covariates via inverse probability of treatment weighting. RESULTS: Among 29 435 identified residents, use of CYP2D6-metabolized opioids concomitantly with CYP2D6-inhibiting (vs. CYP2D6-neutral) antidepressants was associated with a higher adjusted rate ratio of worsening pain (1.13 [95% CI, 1.09 to 1.17]) and higher adjusted incidence rate ratios of pain-related hospitalization (1.37 [CI, 1.19 to 1.59]), pain-related ED visit (1.49 [CI, 1.24 to 1.80]), and OUD (1.93 [CI, 1.37 to 2.73]), with no difference in physical function, depression, and opioid overdose. LIMITATION: Findings are generalizable to NH populations only. CONCLUSION: Use of CYP2D6-metabolized opioids concomitantly with CYP2D6-inhibiting (vs. CYP2D6-neutral) antidepressants was associated with worsening pain and increased risk for most assessed ORAEs among older NH residents. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute on Aging.

A Bayesian semiparametric approach for inference on the population partly conditional mean from longitudinal data with dropout.

Studies of memory trajectories using longitudinal data often result in highly nonrepresentative samples due to selective study enrollment and attrition. An additional bias comes from practice effects that result in improved or maintained performance due to familiarity with test content or context. These challenges may bias study findings and severely distort the ability to generalize to the target population. In this study, we propose an approach for estimating the finite population mean of a longitudinal outcome conditioning on being alive at a specific time point. We develop a flexible Bayesian semiparametric predictive estimator for population inference when longitudinal auxiliary information is known for the target population. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results to untestable assumptions and further compare our approach to other methods used for population inference in a simulation study. The proposed approach is motivated by 15-year longitudinal data from the Betula longitudinal cohort study. We apply our approach to estimate lifespan trajectories in episodic memory, with the aim to generalize findings to a target population.

Flexible evaluation of surrogacy in platform studies.

Trial-level surrogates are useful tools for improving the speed and cost effectiveness of trials but surrogates that have not been properly evaluated can cause misleading results. The evaluation procedure is often contextual and depends on the type of trial setting. There have been many proposed methods for trial-level surrogate evaluation, but none, to our knowledge, for the specific setting of platform studies. As platform studies are becoming more popular, methods for surrogate evaluation using them are needed. These studies also offer a rich data resource for surrogate evaluation that would not normally be possible. However, they also offer a set of statistical issues including heterogeneity of the study population, treatments, implementation, and even potentially the quality of the surrogate. We propose the use of a hierarchical Bayesian semiparametric model for the evaluation of potential surrogates using nonparametric priors for the distribution of true effects based on Dirichlet process mixtures. The motivation for this approach is to flexibly model relationships between the treatment effect on the surrogate and the treatment effect on the outcome and also to identify potential clusters with differential surrogate value in a data-driven manner so that treatment effects on the surrogate can be used to reliably predict treatment effects on the clinical outcome. In simulations, we find that our proposed method is superior to a simple, but fairly standard, hierarchical Bayesian method. We demonstrate how our method can be used in a simulated illustrative example (based on the ProBio trial), in which we are able to identify clusters where the surrogate is, and is not useful. We plan to apply our method to the ProBio trial, once it is completed.

Short- and long-term safety of discontinuing chronic opioid therapy among older adults with Alzheimer's disease and related dementia.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on the short- and long-term safety of discontinuing versus continuing chronic opioid therapy (COT) among patients with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). METHODS: This cohort study was conducted among 162,677 older residents with ADRD and receipt of COT using a 100% Medicare nursing home sample. Discontinuation of COT was defined as no opioid refills for ≥90 days. Primary outcomes were rates of pain-related hospitalisation, pain-related emergency department visit, injury, opioid use disorder (OUD) and opioid overdose (OD) measured by diagnosis codes at quarterly intervals during 1- and 2-year follow-ups. Poisson regression models were fit using generalised estimating equations with inverse probability of treatment weights to model quarterly outcome rates between residents who discontinued versus continued COT. RESULTS: The study sample consisted of 218,040 resident episodes with COT; of these episodes, 180,916 residents (83%) continued COT, whereas 37,124 residents (17%) subsequently discontinued COT. Discontinuing (vs. continuing) COT was associated with higher rates of all outcomes in the first quarter, but these associations attenuated over time. The adjusted rates of injury, OUD and OD were 0, 69 and 60% lower at the 1-year follow-up and 11, 81 and 79% lower at the 2-year follow-up, respectively, for residents who discontinued versus continued COT, with no difference in the adjusted rates of pain-related hospitalisations or emergency department visits. CONCLUSIONS: The rates of adverse outcomes were higher in the first quarter but lower or non-differential at 1-year and 2-year follow-ups between COT discontinuers versus continuers among older residents with ADRD.

Five multivariate Duchenne muscular dystrophy progression models bridging six-minute walk distance and MRI relaxometry of leg muscles.

The study aimed to provide quantitative information on the utilization of MRI transverse relaxation time constant (MRI-T2) of leg muscles in DMD clinical trials by developing multivariate disease progression models of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) using 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and MRI-T2. Clinical data were collected from the prospective and longitudinal ImagingNMD study. Disease progression models were developed by a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling approach. Univariate models of 6MWD and MRI-T2 of five muscles were developed separately. Age at assessment was the time metric. Multivariate models were developed by estimating the correlation of 6MWD and MRI-T2 model variables. Full model estimation approach for covariate analysis and five-fold cross validation were conducted. Simulations were performed to compare the models and predict the covariate effects on the trajectories of 6MWD and MRI-T2. Sigmoid Imax and Emax models best captured the profiles of 6MWD and MRI-T2 over age. Steroid use, baseline 6MWD, and baseline MRI-T2 were significant covariates. The median age at which 6MWD is half of its maximum decrease in the five models was similar, while the median age at which MRI-T2 is half of its maximum increase varied depending on the type of muscle. The models connecting 6MWD and MRI-T2 successfully quantified how individual characteristics alter disease trajectories. The models demonstrate a plausible correlation between 6MWD and MRI-T2, supporting the use of MRI-T2. The developed models will guide drug developers in using the MRI-T2 to most efficient use in DMD clinical trials.

Pain intensity, physical function, and depressive symptoms associated with discontinuing long-term opioid therapy in older adults with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

INTRODUCTION: Limited evidence exists on the associations of discontinuing versus continuing long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) with pain intensity, physical function, and depression among patients with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). METHODS: A cohort study among 138,059 older residents with mild-to-moderate ADRD and receipt of LTOT was conducted using a 100% Medicare nursing home sample. Discontinuation of LTOT was defined as no opioid refills for ≥ 60 days. Outcomes were worsening pain, physical function, and depression from baseline to quarterly assessments during 1- and 2-year follow-ups. RESULTS: The adjusted odds of worsening pain and depressive symptoms were 29% and 5% lower at the 1-year follow-up and 35% and 9% lower at the 2-year follow-up for residents who discontinued versus continued LTOT, with no difference in physical function. DISCUSSION: Discontinuing LTOT was associated with lower short- and long-term worsening pain and depressive symptoms than continuing LTOT among older residents with ADRD. HIGHLIGHTS: Discontinuing long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) was associated with lower short- and long-term worsening pain. Discontinuing LTOT was related to lower short- and long-term worsening depression. Discontinuing LTOT was not associated with short- and long-term physical function.

Dirichlet process mixture models for the analysis of repeated attempt designs.

In longitudinal studies, it is not uncommon to make multiple attempts to collect a measurement after baseline. Recording whether these attempts are successful provides useful information for the purposes of assessing missing data assumptions. This is because measurements from subjects who provide the data after numerous failed attempts may differ from those who provide the measurement after fewer attempts. Previous models for these designs were parametric and/or did not allow sensitivity analysis. For the former, there are always concerns about model misspecification and for the latter, sensitivity analysis is essential when conducting inference in the presence of missing data. Here, we propose a new approach which minimizes issues with model misspecification by using Bayesian nonparametrics for the observed data distribution. We also introduce a novel approach for identification and sensitivity analysis. We re-analyze the repeated attempts data from a clinical trial involving patients with severe mental illness and conduct simulations to better understand the properties of our approach.

Joint modeling the frequency and duration of accelerometer-measured physical activity from a lifestyle intervention trial.

Physical activity (PA) guidelines recommend that PA be accumulated in bouts of 10 minutes or more in duration. Recently, researchers have sought to better understand how participants in PA interventions increase their activity. Participants can increase their daily PA by increasing the number of PA bouts per day while keeping the duration of the bouts constant; they can keep the number of bouts constant but increase the duration of each bout; or participants can increase both the number of bouts and their duration. We propose a novel joint modeling framework for modeling PA bouts and their duration over time. Our joint model is comprised of two sub-models: a mixed-effects Poisson hurdle sub-model for the number of bouts per day and a mixed-effects location scale gamma regression sub-model to characterize the duration of the bouts and their variance. The model allows us to estimate how daily PA bouts and their duration vary together over the course of an intervention and by treatment condition and is specifically designed to capture the unique distributional features of bouted PA as measured by accelerometer: frequent measurements, zero-inflated bouts, and skewed bout durations. We apply our methods to the Make Better Choices study, a longitudinal lifestyle intervention trial to increase PA. We perform a simulation study to evaluate how well our model is able to estimate relationships between outcomes.

Zinc Status Alters Alzheimer's Disease Progression through NLRP3-Dependent Inflammation.

Alzheimer's disease is a devastating neurodegenerative disease with a dramatically increasing prevalence and no disease-modifying treatment. Inflammatory lifestyle factors increase the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. Zinc deficiency is the most prevalent malnutrition in the world and may be a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease potentially through enhanced inflammation, although evidence for this is limited. Here we provide epidemiological evidence suggesting that zinc supplementation was associated with reduced risk and slower cognitive decline, in people with Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment. Using the APP/PS1 mouse model of Alzheimer's disease fed a control (35 mg/kg zinc) or diet deficient in zinc (3 mg/kg zinc), we determined that zinc deficiency accelerated Alzheimer's-like memory deficits without modifying amyloid ß plaque burden in the brains of male mice. The NLRP3-inflammasome complex is one of the most important regulators of inflammation, and we show here that zinc deficiency in immune cells, including microglia, potentiated NLRP3 responses to inflammatory stimuli in vitro, including amyloid oligomers, while zinc supplementation inhibited NLRP3 activation. APP/PS1 mice deficient in NLRP3 were protected against the accelerated cognitive decline with zinc deficiency. Collectively, this research suggests that zinc status is linked to inflammatory reactivity and may be modified in people to reduce the risk and slow the progression of Alzheimer's disease.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Alzheimer's disease is a common condition mostly affecting the elderly. Zinc deficiency is also a global problem, especially in the elderly and also in people with Alzheimer's disease. Zinc deficiency contributes to many clinical disorders, including immune dysfunction. Inflammation is known to contribute to the risk and progression of Alzheimer's disease; thus, we hypothesized that zinc status would affect Alzheimer's disease progression. Here we show that zinc supplementation reduced the prevalence and symptomatic decline in people with Alzheimer's disease. In an animal model of Alzheimer's disease, zinc deficiency worsened cognitive decline because of an enhancement in NLRP3-driven inflammation. Overall, our data suggest that zinc status affects Alzheimer's disease progression, and that zinc supplementation could slow the rate of cognitive decline.

Treatment with IgM-enriched intravenous immunoglobulins enhances clearance of stroke-associated bacterial lung infection.

Post-stroke infection is a common complication of stroke that is associated with poor outcome. We previously reported that stroke induces an ablation of multiple sub-populations of B cells and reduces levels of immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibody, which coincides with the development of spontaneous bacterial pneumonia. The loss of IgM after stroke could be an important determinant of infection susceptibility and highlights this pathway as a target for intervention. We treated mice with a replacement dose of IgM-enriched intravenous immunoglobulin (IgM-IVIg) prior to and 24 h after middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) and allowed them to recover for 2- or 5-day post-surgery. Treatment with IgM-IVIg enhanced bacterial clearance from the lung after MCAO and improved lung pathology but did not impact brain infarct volume. IgM-IVIg treatment induced immunomodulatory effects systemically, including rescue of splenic plasma B cell numbers and endogenous mouse IgM and IgA circulating immunoglobulin concentrations that were reduced by MCAO. Treatment attenuated MCAO-induced elevation of selected pro-inflammatory cytokines in the lung. IgM-IVIg treatment did not increase the number of lung mononuclear phagocytes or directly modulate macrophage phagocytic capacity but enhanced phagocytosis of Staphylococcus aureus bioparticles in vitro. Low-dose IgM-IVIg contributes to increased clearance of spontaneous lung bacteria after MCAO likely via increasing availability of antibody in the lung to enhance opsonophagocytic activity. Immunomodulatory effects of IgM-IVIg treatment may also contribute to reduced levels of damage in the lung after MCAO. IgM-IVIg shows promise as an antibacterial and immunomodulatory agent to use in the treatment of post-stroke infection.

Longitudinal changes in cardiac function in Duchenne muscular dystrophy population as measured by magnetic resonance imaging.

BACKGROUND: The lack of dystrophin in cardiomyocytes in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is associated with progressive decline in cardiac function eventually leading to death by 20-40 years of age. The aim of this prospective study was to determine rate of progressive decline in left ventricular (LV) function in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) over 5 years. METHODS: Short axis cine and grid tagged images of the LV were acquired in individuals with DMD (n = 59; age = 5.3-18.0 years) yearly, and healthy controls at baseline (n = 16, age = 6.0-18.3 years) on a 3 T MRI scanner. Grid-tagged images were analyzed for composite circumferential strain (ℇcc%) and ℇcc% in six mid LV segments. Cine images were analyzed for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), LV mass (LVM), end-diastolic volume (EDV), end-systolic volume (ESV), LV atrioventricular plane displacement (LVAPD), and circumferential uniformity ratio estimate (CURE). LVM, EDV, and ESV were normalized to body surface area for a normalized index of LVM (LVMI), EDV (EDVI) and ESV (ESVI). RESULTS: At baseline, LV ℇcc% was significantly worse in DMD compared to controls and five of the six mid LV segments demonstrated abnormal strain in DMD. Longitudinal measurements revealed that ℇcc% consistently declined in individuals with DMD with the inferior segments being more affected. LVEF progressively declined between 3 to 5 years post baseline visit. In a multivariate analysis, the use of cardioprotective drugs trended towards positively impacting cardiac measures while loss of ambulation and baseline age were associated with negative impact. Eight out of 17 cardiac parameters reached a minimal clinically important difference with a threshold of 1/3 standard deviation. CONCLUSION: The study shows a worsening of circumferential strain in dystrophic myocardium. The findings emphasize the significance of early and longitudinal assessment of cardiac function in DMD and identify early biomarkers of cardiac dysfunction to help design clinical trials to mitigate cardiac pathology. This study provides valuable non-invasive and non-contrast based natural history data of cardiac changes which can be used to design clinical trials or interpret the results of current trials aimed at mitigating the effects of decreased cardiac function in DMD.

Differential impact of telehealth extended-care programs for weight-loss maintenance in African American versus white adults.

Extended-care interventions have been demonstrated to improve maintenance of weight loss after the end of initial obesity treatment; however, it is unclear whether these programs are similarly effective for African American versus White participants. The current study examined differences in effectiveness of individual versus group telephone-based extended-care on weight regain, compared to educational control, in 410 African American (n = 82) and White (n = 328) adults with obesity (mean ± SD age = 55.6 ± 10.3 years, BMI = 36.4 ± 3.7 kg/m2). After controlling for initial weight loss, multivariate linear models demonstrated a significant interaction between treatment condition and race, p = .048. Randomization to the individual telephone condition produced the least amount of weight regain in White participants, while the group condition produced the least amount of weight regain in African American participants. Future research should investigate the role of social support in regain for African American versus White participants and examine whether tailoring delivery format by race may improve long-term outcomes.

Combined impact of Medicare's hospital pay for performance programs on quality and safety outcomes is mixed.

BACKGROUND: Three major hospital pay for performance (P4P) programs were introduced by the Affordable Care Act and intended to improve the quality, safety and efficiency of care provided to Medicare beneficiaries. The financial risk to hospitals associated with Medicare's P4P programs is substantial. Evidence on the positive impact of these programs, however, has been mixed, and no study has assessed their combined impact. In this study, we examined the combined impact of Medicare's P4P programs on clinical areas and populations targeted by the programs, as well as those outside their focus. METHODS: We used 2007-2016 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases for 14 states to identify hospital-level inpatient quality indicators (IQIs) and patient safety indicators (PSIs), by quarter and payer (Medicare vs. non-Medicare). IQIs and PSIs are standardized, evidence-based measures that can be used to track hospital quality of care and patient safety over time using hospital administrative data. The study period of 2007-2016 was selected to capture multiple years before and after introduction of program metrics. Interrupted time series was used to analyze the impact of the P4P programs on study outcomes targeted and not targeted by the programs. In sensitivity analyses, we examined the impact of these programs on care for non-Medicare patients. RESULTS: Medicare P4P programs were not associated with consistent improvements in targeted or non-targeted quality and safety measures. Moreover, mortality rates across targeted and untargeted conditions were generally getting worse after the introduction of Medicare's P4P programs. Trends in PSIs were extremely mixed, with five outcomes trending in an expected (improving) direction, five trending in an unexpected (deteriorating) direction, and three with insignificant changes over time. Sensitivity analyses did not substantially alter these results. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with previous studies for individual programs, we detect minimal, if any, effect of Medicare's hospital P4P programs on quality and safety. Given the growing evidence of limited impact, the administrative cost of monitoring and enforcing penalties, and potential increase in mortality, CMS should consider redesigning their P4P programs before continuing to expand them.

The three cytokines IL-1ß, IL-18, and IL-1α share related but distinct secretory routes.

Interleukin (IL)-1 family cytokines potently regulate inflammation, with the majority of the IL-1 family proteins being secreted from immune cells via unconventional pathways. In many cases, secretion of IL-1 cytokines appears to be closely coupled to cell death, yet the secretory mechanisms involved remain poorly understood. Here, we studied the secretion of the three best-characterized members of the IL-1 superfamily, IL-1α, IL-1ß, and IL-18, in a range of conditions and cell types, including murine bone marrow-derived and peritoneal macrophages, human monocyte-derived macrophages, HeLa cells, and mouse embryonic fibroblasts. We discovered that IL-1ß and IL-18 share a common secretory pathway that depends upon membrane permeability and can operate in the absence of complete cell lysis and cell death. We also found that the pathway regulating the trafficking of IL-1α is distinct from the pathway regulating IL-1ß and IL-18. Although the release of IL-1α could also be dissociated from cell death, it was independent of the effects of the membrane-stabilizing agent punicalagin, which inhibited both IL-1ß and IL-18 release. These results reveal that in addition to their role as danger signals released from dead cells, IL-1 family cytokines can be secreted in the absence of cell death. We propose that models used in the study of IL-1 release should be considered context-dependently.

Upper and Lower Extremities in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Evaluated with Quantitative MRI and Proton MR Spectroscopy in a Multicenter Cohort.

Background Upper extremity MRI and proton MR spectroscopy are increasingly considered to be outcome measures in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) clinical trials. Purpose To demonstrate the feasibility of acquiring upper extremity MRI and proton (1H) MR spectroscopy measures of T2 and fat fraction in a large, multicenter cohort (ImagingDMD) of ambulatory and nonambulatory individuals with DMD; compare upper and lower extremity muscles by using MRI and 1H MR spectroscopy; and correlate upper extremity MRI and 1H MR spectroscopy measures to function. Materials and Methods In this prospective cross-sectional study, MRI and 1H MR spectroscopy and functional assessment data were acquired from participants with DMD and unaffected control participants at three centers (from January 28, 2016, to April 24, 2018). T2 maps of the shoulder, upper arm, forearm, thigh, and calf were generated from a spin-echo sequence (repetition time msec/echo time msec, 3000/20-320). Fat fraction maps were generated from chemical shift-encoded imaging (eight echo times). Fat fraction and 1H2O T2 in the deltoid and biceps brachii were measured from single-voxel 1H MR spectroscopy (9000/11-243). Groups were compared by using Mann-Whitney test, and relationships between MRI and 1H MR spectroscopy and arm function were assessed by using Spearman correlation. Results This study evaluated 119 male participants with DMD (mean age, 12 years ± 3 [standard deviation]) and 38 unaffected male control participants (mean age, 12 years ± 3). Deltoid and biceps brachii muscles were different in participants with DMD versus control participants in all age groups by using quantitative T2 MRI (P < .001) and 1H MR spectroscopy fat fraction (P < .05). The deltoid, biceps brachii, and triceps brachii were affected to the same extent (P > .05) as the soleus and medial gastrocnemius. Negative correlations were observed between arm function and MRI (T2: range among muscles, ρ = -0.53 to -0.73 [P < .01]; fat fraction, ρ = -0.49 to -0.70 [P < .01]) and 1H MR spectroscopy fat fraction (ρ = -0.64 to -0.71; P < .01). Conclusion This multicenter study demonstrated early and progressive involvement of upper extremity muscles in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and showed the feasibility of MRI and 1H MR spectroscopy to track disease progression over a wide range of ages in participants with DMD. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

A Note on Monotonicity in Repeated Attempt Selection Models.

Study designs where follow-up samples are collected through multiple attempts have been called repeated attempts designs. In this note we explore the monotonicity thought to underly the models fit for these designs and show it does not always hold.

A sensitivity analysis approach for informative dropout using shared parameter models.

Shared parameter models (SPMs) are a useful approach to addressing bias from informative dropout in longitudinal studies. In SPMs it is typically assumed that the longitudinal outcome process and the dropout time are independent, given random effects and observed covariates. However, this conditional independence assumption is unverifiable. Currently, sensitivity analysis strategies for this unverifiable assumption of SPMs are underdeveloped. In principle, parameters that can and cannot be identified by the observed data should be clearly separated in sensitivity analyses, and sensitivity parameters should not influence the model fit to the observed data. For SPMs this is difficult because it is not clear how to separate the observed data likelihood from the distribution of the missing data given the observed data (i.e., 'extrapolation distribution'). In this article, we propose a new approach for transparent sensitivity analyses for informative dropout that separates the observed data likelihood and the extrapolation distribution, using a typical SPM as a working model for the complete data generating mechanism. For this model, the default extrapolation distribution is a skew-normal distribution (i.e., it is available in a closed form). We propose anchoring the sensitivity analysis on the default extrapolation distribution under the specified SPM and calibrate the sensitivity parameters using the observed data for subjects who drop out. The proposed approach is used to address informative dropout in the HIV Epidemiology Research Study.

Measurement error correction and sensitivity analysis in longitudinal dietary intervention studies using an external validation study.

In lifestyle intervention trials, where the goal is to change a participant's weight or modify their eating behavior, self-reported diet is a longitudinal outcome variable that is subject to measurement error. We propose a statistical framework for correcting for measurement error in longitudinal self-reported dietary data by combining intervention data with auxiliary data from an external biomarker validation study where both self-reported and recovery biomarkers of dietary intake are available. In this setting, dietary intake measured without error in the intervention trial is missing data and multiple imputation is used to fill in the missing measurements. Since most validation studies are cross-sectional, they do not contain information on whether the nature of the measurement error changes over time or differs between treatment and control groups. We use sensitivity analyses to address the influence of these unverifiable assumptions involving the measurement error process and how they affect inferences regarding the effect of treatment. We apply our methods to self-reported sodium intake from the PREMIER study, a multi-component lifestyle intervention trial.