Profiles of tobacco smokers and ex-smokers in a large-scale random sample survey across Wales: an unsupervised machine-learning cluster analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Welsh government recently set a target to be smoke-free by 2030, which means reducing the prevalence of tobacco smoking in adults to 5% by then. The goal is to improve health and population life expectancy. To support this strategy, we identified profile groups with different sets of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics within the population of smokers. We compared these profiles to those identified in the ex-smoker population to provide a broader understanding of smokers and inform targeting of interventions and policy. METHODS: We did a cross-sectional study using data from the National Survey for Wales. This survey is a random sample telephone survey of individuals aged 16 years and older across Wales carried out from Sept 1, 2021 to Jan 31, 2022, weighted to be representative of the Welsh population. For the smoking subgroup, we did a weighted hierarchical cluster analysis with multiple imputation to impute missing data and repeated it for ex-smokers. In total, 63 survey variables were used in the analysis. These variables included smoking history, e-cigarette use, sociodemographics, lifestyle factors, individual-level deprivation, general health and long-term conditions, mental health, and wellbeing. FINDINGS: Among the 6407 respondents (weighted proportions: 49% male, 51% female; 28% aged 16-34 years, 46% aged 35-44 years, 26% aged ≥65 years; 95% white, 5% other ethnicity), 841 (13%) smoked and 2136 (33%) were ex-smokers. Four distinctive profiles of smokers were identified, the groups were of relatively comparable size and characterised by similarities described as (1) high-risk alcohol drinkers and without children; (2) single, mostly in social housing, and poor health and mental health; (3) mostly single, younger, tried e-cigarettes, and poor mental health; (4) older couples and poor health; when comparing the groups with each other. Cluster quality and validation statistics were considered fair: silhouette coefficient=0·09, Dunn index (Dunn2)=1·06. Generally, ex-smoker clusters differed from smoking clusters because of themes related to increased sickness, better affluence, employment, and older age (≥75 years). INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that not all smokers are the same, and they do not fall into one coherent group. Smoking cessation interventions to improve the health of ageing populations might need a different approach to consider a wider context or motivations to inform targeted quitting. It is acknowledged that smoking might be underreported because of perceived social unacceptability. FUNDING: Public Health Wales.

Health of unpaid carers in Wales, UK: a population data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: The population of unpaid carers in Wales increased to record. There is no systematic approach to record unpaid caring status, resulting in limited quantitative evidence on unpaid carers' health. The aim of this study is to: (i) create an e-cohort of unpaid carers by linking routinely collected health and administrative datasets in Wales, UK. (ii) investigate whether long-term health conditions and multimorbidity are more prevalent amongst unpaid carers than non-carers. METHODS: Unpaid carers were identified by linking primary care dataset, National Survey for Wales data with demographic characteristics in the Secure Anonymise Information Linkage Databank. The clinical codes identified in Cambridge Multimorbidity Score were used to explore the prevalence of long-term health conditions. RESULTS: A total of 91 220 unpaid carers in Wales were identified between 1 January 2010 and 1 March 2022. Unpaid carers were found at higher risk of managing 35 of 37 long-term health conditions and multimorbidity than non-carers, exacerbated amongst younger age groups and deprived communities. CONCLUSIONS: The creation of the first e-cohort of unpaid carers in Wales provides opportunities to perform rapid analysis to systematically understand health needs and evaluate initiatives in future. To better support unpaid carers, flexible approaches focusing on early identification and prevention is crucial.

Shifting priorities and employment choices among workers in Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Employment is a determinant of health. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted working lives, forcing individuals to adapt to new ways of working. These shifts might shape people's priorities and their consideration of changes for future work. We examined how these outcomes differed depending on self-reported health status. METHODS: In this longitudinal analysis, we used data from the COVID-19 Employment and Health in Wales Study; a nationally-representative household survey of workers aged 18-64 years. Timepoint 1 (T1) data were collected between May 27, 2020, and June 22, 2020, and timepoint 2 (T2) data between Nov 30, 2020, and Jan 29, 2021. Participants who responded at both timepoints were eligible. Respondents selected five employment priorities at both timepoints, and the employment changes they considered during the COVID-19 pandemic at T2 only. We used multivariable logistic regressions (including sociodemographics, current employment factors, and self-reported health) and examined associations with health firstly for employment priorities, and secondly for the consideration of employment changes. Health measures were self-reported general health, limiting pre-existing health conditions (both using National Survey for Wales validated questions), and mental wellbeing (using the shortened Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale). FINDINGS: We analysed data from 592 respondents (382 [65%] women). 766 (56%) of 1358 T1 respondents were excluded as no T2 responses were provided. Those who self-reported poor general health were consistently more likely to prioritise flexible working arrangements than those rating fair or above (T1 adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·06 [95% CI 1·10-3·88], p=0·033; T2 aOR 1·87 [95% CI 1·05-3·33], p=0·034). Those with low (as opposed to average) mental wellbeing were more likely to consider securing a permanent contract (aOR 5·49 [95% CI 1·32-22·81], p=0·023, and those with limiting pre-existing conditions were four times more likely to consider becoming self-employed (aOR 4·00 [95% CI 1·35-11·84], p=0·011) than those without. INTERPRETATION: Promoting the adoption of flexible working policies and supporting those in poor health to obtain flexible employment could benefit people in Wales. Those with low mental wellbeing might seek the security of permanent employment, and those with limiting pre-existing conditions might value the autonomy of self-employment. FUNDING: None.

Mental health of the nursing and midwifery workforce in Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: The mental health of the nursing and midwifery workforce in the UK became a public health concern before the COVID-19 pandemic. Poor mental health is a known factor for those considering leaving the profession, and workforce retention of younger members is crucial for the future of the sector. The aim of this study was to provide up-to-date estimates of mental wellbeing in this workforce in Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We did a cross-sectional analysis of demographics, work-related information, and health data from respondents to a national online survey of registered and student nurses and midwives and health-care support workers in Wales. The survey was open between June 23 and Aug 9, 2021, and 2910 people responded (approximately 7% of the workforce). Mental wellbeing was calculated using the Short Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Score (SWEMWBS). We measured probable clinical depression (SWEMWBS <18) and possible mild depression (SWEMWBS 18-20). We used χ2 analysis and multinomial logistic regression (adjusted for sex and staff grouping) to examine associations between age groups and mental wellbeing. FINDINGS: We analysed data from 2781 (95·6%) of 2910 respondents (129 respondents did not answer all seven SWEMWBS questions). Overall, 1622 (58·3%) of 2781 respondents had SWEMWBSs indicative of either probable clinical depression (863 [31·0%] of 2781) or possible mild depression (759 [27·3%] of 2781). Probable clinical depression was highest among those aged 18-29 years (180 [33·8%] of 532), 30-39 years (250 [35·6%] of 703), and 40-49 years (233 [33·5%] of 696). Respondents in these age groups were twice as likely to report SWEMWBSs indicative of probable clinical depression than respondents aged 60 years and older (18-29 years adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·38 [95% CI 1·43-3·97], p=0·0009; 30-39 years aOR 2·86 [1·77-4·64], p<0·0001; 40-49 years aOR 2·49 [1·54-4·02], p=0·0002). INTERPRETATION: This study highlights the substantial burden of poor mental wellbeing among the nursing and midwifery workforce in Wales, especially in those aged 49 years and younger. These figures, higher than previous estimates, could reflect the mental health effect of responding to the pandemic and could have long-term implications on workforce retention. FUNDING: None.

Impact of the temporary suspension of the Bowel Screening Wales programme on inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective register-based study.

BACKGROUND: Response to the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the temporary disruption of routine services in the UK National Health Service, including cancer screening. Following the reintroduction of services, we explored the impact on inequalities in uptake of the Bowel Screening Wales (BSW) programme to identify groups who might benefit from tailored intervention. METHODS: BSW records were linked to electronic health record and administrative data within the Secured Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank Trusted Research Environment. We examined uptake in the first 3 months (from August to October, 2020) of invitations following the reintroduction of the BSW programme compared with the same period in the preceding 3 years. We analysed inequalities in uptake by sex, age group, income deprivation quintile, urban and rural location, ethnic group, and uptake between different periods using logistic regression models. FINDINGS: Overall uptake remained above the 60% Welsh standard during the COVID-19 pandemic period of 2020-21 but declined compared with the pre-pandemic period of 2019-20 (60·4% vs 62·7%; p<0·001). During the COVID-19 pandemic period of 2020-21, uptake declined for most demographic groups, except for older individuals (70-74 years) and those in the most deprived quintile. Variation by sex, age, income deprivation, and ethnic groups was observed in all periods studied. Among low-uptake groups, including males, younger individuals (60-64 years), those living in most deprived areas, and ethnic minorities, uptake remains below the 60% Welsh standard. INTERPRETATION: Despite the disruption, uptake remained above the Welsh standard and inequalities did not worsen after the programme resumed activities. However, variations associated with sex, age, deprivation, and ethnicity remain. These findings need to be considered in targeting strategies to improve uptake and informed choice in colorectal cancer screening such as co-producing information products with low-uptake groups and upscaling the use of GP-endorsed invitations and reminder letters for bowel screening. FUNDING: Health Data Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, Administrative Data Research UK, and Health and Care Research Wales.

COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy: the impact of multimorbidity and smoking status on vaccine hesitancy, a cohort study of 25,111 women in Wales, UK.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, smoking status, and pregnancy are identified as three risk factors associated with more severe outcomes following a SARS-CoV-2 infection, thus vaccination uptake is crucial for pregnant women living with multimorbidity and a history of smoking. This study aimed to examine the impact of multimorbidity, smoking status, and demographics (age, ethnic group, area of deprivation) on vaccine hesitancy among pregnant women in Wales using electronic health records (EHR) linkage. METHODS: This cohort study utilised routinely collected, individual-level, anonymised population-scale linked data within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Pregnant women were identified from 13th April 2021 to 31st December 2021. Survival analysis was employed to examine and compare the length of time to vaccination uptake in pregnancy by considering multimorbidity, smoking status, as well as depression, diabetes, asthma, and cardiovascular conditions independently. The study also assessed the variation in uptake by multimorbidity, smoking status, and demographics, both jointly and separately for the independent conditions, using hazard ratios (HR) derived from the Cox regression model. RESULTS: Within the population cohort, 8,203 (32.7%) received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy, with 8,572 (34.1%) remaining unvaccinated throughout the follow-up period, and 8,336 (33.2%) receiving the vaccine postpartum. Women aged 30 years or older were more likely to have the vaccine in pregnancy. Those who had depression were slightly but significantly more likely to have the vaccine compared to those without depression (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.14, p = 0.002). Women living with multimorbidity were 1.12 times more likely to have the vaccine compared to those living without multimorbidity (HR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.19, p = 0.001). Vaccine uptakes were significantly lower among both current smokers and former smokers compared to never smokers (HR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.94, p < 0.001 and HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.98, p = 0.015 respectively). Uptake was also lower among those living in the most deprived areas compared to those living in the most affluent areas (HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.96, p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Younger women, living without multimorbidity, current and former smokers, and those living in the more deprived areas are less likely to have the vaccine, thus, a targeted approach to vaccinations may be required for these groups. Pregnant individuals living with multimorbidity exhibit a slight but statistically significant reduction in vaccine hesitancy towards COVID-19 during pregnancy.

Challenges to self-isolation among contacts of cases of COVID-19: a national telephone survey in Wales.

BACKGROUND: Self-isolation is challenging and adherence is dependent on a range of psychological, social and economic factors. We aimed to identify the challenges experienced by contacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases to better target support and minimize the harms of self-isolation. METHODS: The Contact Adherence Behavioural Insights Study (CABINS) was a 15-minute telephone survey conducted with confirmed contacts of COVID-19 (N = 2027), identified through the NHS Wales Test Trace Protect (TTP) database. RESULTS: Younger people (aged 18-29 years) were three times more likely to report mental health concerns (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.05-4.86) and two times more likely to report loneliness (aOR: 1.96, CI: 1.37-2.81) compared to people aged over 60 years. Women were 1.5 times more likely to experience mental health concerns (aOR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.20-1.92) compared to men. People with high levels of income precarity were eight times more likely to report financial challenges (aOR: 7.73, CI: 5.10-11.74) and three times more likely to report mental health concerns than their more financially secure counterparts (aOR: 3.08, CI: 2.22-4.28). CONCLUSION: Self-isolation is particularly challenging for younger people, women and those with precarious incomes. Providing enhanced support is required to minimize the harms of self-isolation.

Inequalities in colorectal cancer screening uptake in Wales: an examination of the impact of the temporary suspension of the screening programme during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Response to the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the temporary disruption of cancer screening in the UK, and strong public messaging to stay safe and to protect NHS capacity. Following reintroduction in services, we explored the impact on inequalities in uptake of the Bowel Screening Wales (BSW) programme to identify groups who may benefit from tailored interventions. METHODS: Records within the BSW were linked to electronic health records (EHR) and administrative data within the Secured Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Ethnic group was obtained from a linked data method available within SAIL. We examined uptake for the first 3 months of invitations (August to October) following the reintroduction of BSW programme in 2020, compared to the same period in the preceding 3 years. Uptake was measured across a 6 month follow-up period. Logistic models were conducted to analyse variations in uptake by sex, age group, income deprivation quintile, urban/rural location, ethnic group, and clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) status in each period; and to compare uptake within sociodemographic groups between different periods. RESULTS: Uptake during August to October 2020 (period 2020/21; 60.4%) declined compared to the same period in 2019/20 (62.7%) but remained above the 60% Welsh standard. Variation by sex, age, income deprivation, and ethnic groups was observed in all periods studied. Compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019/20, uptake declined for most demographic groups, except for older individuals (70-74 years) and those in the most income deprived group. Uptake continues to be lower in males, younger individuals, people living in the most income deprived areas and those of Asian and unknown ethnic backgrounds. CONCLUSION: Our findings are encouraging with overall uptake achieving the 60% Welsh standard during the first three months after the programme restarted in 2020 despite the disruption. Inequalities did not worsen after the programme resumed activities but variations in CRC screening in Wales associated with sex, age, deprivation and ethnic group remain. This needs to be considered in targeting strategies to improve uptake and informed choice in CRC screening to avoid exacerbating disparities in CRC outcomes as screening services recover from the pandemic.

Mapping Inequities in Digital Health Technology Within the World Health Organization's European Region Using PROGRESS PLUS: Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: The use of digital technologies within health care rapidly increased as services transferred to web-based platforms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Inequalities in digital health across the domains of equity are not routinely examined; yet, the long-term integration of digitally delivered services needs to consider such inequalities to ensure equitable benefits. OBJECTIVE: This scoping review aimed to map inequities in access, use, and engagement with digital health technologies across equity domains. METHODS: We searched 4 electronic databases (MEDLINE, ASSIA, PsycINFO, and Scopus) for quantitative and mixed methods reviews and meta-analyses published between January 2016 and May 2022. Reviews were limited to those that included studies from the World Health Organization's European region. Extracted data were mapped against Cochrane's PROGRESS PLUS (place of residence, race, ethnicity, culture, and language, occupation, gender and sex, religion, education, socioeconomic status, social capital, and other characteristics) dimensions of equity. RESULTS: In total, 404 unique citations were identified from the searches, and 2 citations were identified from other sources. After eligibility assessment, 22 reviews were included. Consistent evidence was found showing higher access to digital health technologies among patients who were of White ethnicity, were English speaking, and had no disability. There were no reviews that explored differences in access to digital health care by age, gender and sex, occupation, education, or homeless or substance misuse. Higher use of digital health technologies was observed among populations that were White, English speaking, younger, with a higher level of education, of higher economic status, and residents in urban areas. No clear evidence of differences in the use of digital technologies by occupation, gender and sex, disability, or homeless or substance misuse was found, nor was clear evidence found in the included reviews on inequalities in the engagement with digital technologies. Finally, no reviews were identified that explored differences by place of residence. CONCLUSIONS: Despite awareness of the potential impact of inequalities in digital health, there are important evidence gaps across multiple equity domains. The development of a common framework for evaluating digital health equity in new health initiatives and consistency in reporting findings is needed.

COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy: views and vaccination uptake rates in pregnancy, a mixed methods analysis from SAIL and the Born-In-Wales Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine hesitancy amongst pregnant women has been found to be a concern during past epidemics. This study aimed to (1) estimate COVID-19 vaccination rates among pregnant women in Wales and their association with age, ethnicity, and area of deprivation, using electronic health record (EHR) data linkage, and (2) explore pregnant women's views on receiving the COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy using data from a survey recruiting via social media (Facebook, Twitter), through midwives, and posters in hospitals (Born-In-Wales Cohort). METHODS: This was a mixed-methods study utilising routinely collected linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank (Objective 1) and the Born-In-Wales Birth Cohort participants (Objective 2). Pregnant women were identified from 13th April 2021 to 31st December 2021. Survival analysis was utilised to examine and compare the length of time to vaccination uptake in pregnancy, and variation in uptake by; age, ethnic group, and deprivation area was examined using hazard ratios (HR) from Cox regression. Survey respondents were women who had a baby during the COVID-19 pandemic or were pregnant between 1st November 2021 and 24th March 2022 and participating in Born-In-Wales. Codebook thematic analysis was used to generate themes from an open-ended question on the survey. RESULTS: Population-level data linkage (objective 1): Within the population cohort, 8203 (32.7%) received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy, 8572 (34.1%) remained unvaccinated throughout the follow-up period, and 8336 (33.2%) received the vaccine postpartum. Younger women (< 30 years) were less likely to have the vaccine, and those living in areas of high deprivation were also less likely to have the vaccine (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.95). Asian and Other ethnic groups were 1.12 and 1.18 times more likely to have the vaccine in pregnancy compared with White women (HR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.25) and (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.37) respectively. Survey responses (objective 2): 207 (69%) of participants stated that they would be happy to have the vaccine during pregnancy. The remaining 94 (31%) indicated they would not have the vaccine during pregnancy. Reasons for having the vaccine included protecting self and baby, perceived risk level, and receipt of sufficient evidence and advice. Reasons for vaccine refusal included lack of research about long-term outcomes for the baby, anxiety about vaccines, inconsistent advice/information, and preference to wait until after the pregnancy. CONCLUSION: Potentially only 1 in 3 pregnant women would have the COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy, even though 2 in 3 reported they would have the vaccination, thus it is critical to develop tailored strategies to increase its acceptance rate and decrease vaccine hesitancy. A targeted approach to vaccinations may be required for groups such as younger people and those living in higher deprivation areas.

Creating an e-cohort of individuals with lived experience of homelessness and subsequent mortality in Wales, UK.

BACKGROUND: Homelessness is an extreme form of social exclusion, with homeless people experiencing considerable social and health inequities. Estimates of morbidity and mortality amongst homeless populations is limited due to the lack of recording of housing status across health datasets. The aim of this study is to: (i) identify a homelessness e-cohort by linking routine health data in Wales, and (ii) explore whether a period of reported past homelessness, places this population at greater risk of morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Homelessness identified through linkage across primary, secondary care and substance misuse datasets in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Mortality was examined through linkage to the Office for National Statistics mortality data. RESULTS: E-cohort of 15 472 individuals with lived experience of homelessness identified. Of those, 21 individuals died between February and July 2020 involving coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19). Those with lived experience of homelessness had increased mortality from many causes including accidents, liver diseases and suicides. CONCLUSION: Linking multiple routine datasets provides a more comprehensive dataset of a marginalized population, including individuals who are not included in government homeless statistics. Application of the cohort demonstrated that individuals with lived experience of homelessness have increased mortality involving COVID-19 and other causes. The underlying reasons, health needs and causes of death warrant further exploration.

Links between obesity, weight stigma and learning in adolescence: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Educational attainment is a key social determinant of health. Health and education are linked by multiple pathways, many of which are not well understood. One such pathway is the association between being above a healthy weight and lower academic achievement. While various explanations have been put forward to explain this relationship, evidence for causal pathways is sparse and unclear. This study addresses that evidence gap. METHODS: We interviewed 19 adults (late 20s; 14 female, 5 male) and one young person (14 years, male) from the UK in 2019/2020. Participants were recruited from the ALSPAC 1990s birth cohort, sampled to ensure diversity in socio-economic status and educational attainment, and a community-based weight management group for young people. Interviews focused on experiences of being above a healthy weight during secondary school and how this may have affected their learning and achievement. Interviews were face-to-face, digitally recorded, and transcribed verbatim. We analysed the data thematically. RESULTS: We identified key pathways through which higher body weight may negatively impact educational performance and showed how these are linked within a novel theoretical model. Because larger body size is highly stigmatised, participants engaged in different strategies to minimise their exposure to negative attention. Participants sought to increase their social acceptance or become less socially visible (or a combination of both). A minority navigated this successfully; they often had many friends (or the 'right' friends), experienced little or no bullying at school and weight appeared to have little effect on their achievement at school. For most however, the behaviours resulting from these strategies (e.g. disruptive behaviour, truanting, not working hard) or the physical, social or mental impacts of their school experiences (e.g. hungry, tired, self-conscious, depressed) made it difficult to concentrate and/or participate in class, which in turn affected how teachers viewed them. CONCLUSIONS: Action to combat weight stigma, both within schools and in wider society, is urgently required to help address these educational disparities that in turn can impact health in later life.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for obesity: A mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in the United Kingdom, and reliably measuring the impact on quality of life and the total healthcare cost from obesity is key to informing the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target obesity, and determining healthcare funding. Current methods for estimating cost-effectiveness of interventions for obesity may be subject to confounding and reverse causation. The aim of this study is to apply a new approach using mendelian randomisation for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target body mass index (BMI), which may be less affected by confounding and reverse causation than previous approaches. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated health-related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and both primary and secondary healthcare costs for 310,913 men and women of white British ancestry aged between 39 and 72 years in UK Biobank between recruitment (2006 to 2010) and 31 March 2017. We then estimated the causal effect of differences in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs using mendelian randomisation. For this, we used instrumental variable regression with a polygenic risk score (PRS) for BMI, derived using a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of BMI, with age, sex, recruitment centre, and 40 genetic principal components as covariables to estimate the effect of a unit increase in BMI on QALYs and total healthcare costs. Finally, we used simulations to estimate the likely effect on BMI of policy relevant interventions for BMI, then used the mendelian randomisation estimates to estimate the cost-effectiveness of these interventions. A unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by 0.65% of a QALY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.49% to 0.81%) per year and increased annual total healthcare costs by £42.23 (95% CI: £32.95 to £51.51) per person. When considering only health conditions usually considered in previous cost-effectiveness modelling studies (cancer, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes), we estimated that a unit increase in BMI decreased QALYs by only 0.16% of a QALY (95% CI: 0.10% to 0.22%) per year. We estimated that both laparoscopic bariatric surgery among individuals with BMI greater than 35 kg/m2, and restricting volume promotions for high fat, salt, and sugar products, would increase QALYs and decrease total healthcare costs, with net monetary benefits (at £20,000 per QALY) of £13,936 (95% CI: £8,112 to £20,658) per person over 20 years, and £546 million (95% CI: £435 million to £671 million) in total per year, respectively. The main limitations of this approach are that mendelian randomisation relies on assumptions that cannot be proven, including the absence of directional pleiotropy, and that genotypes are independent of confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Mendelian randomisation can be used to estimate the impact of interventions on quality of life and healthcare costs. We observed that the effect of increasing BMI on health-related quality of life is much larger when accounting for 240 chronic health conditions, compared with only a limited selection. This means that previous cost-effectiveness studies have likely underestimated the effect of BMI on quality of life and, therefore, the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce BMI.

Addressing the Digital Inverse Care Law in the Time of COVID-19: Potential for Digital Technology to Exacerbate or Mitigate Health Inequalities.

Digital technologies have been transforming methods of health care delivery and have been embraced within the health, social, and public response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this has directed attention to the "inverse information law" (also called "digital inverse care law") and digital inequalities, as people who are most in need of support (in particular, older people and those experiencing social deprivation) are often least likely to engage with digital platforms. The response to the COVID-19 pandemic represents a sustained shift to the adoption of digital approaches to working and engaging with populations, which will continue beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, it is important to understand the underlying factors contributing to digital inequalities and act immediately to avoid digital inequality contributing to health inequalities in the future. The response to COVID-19 represents a sustained shift to adopting digital approaches to working and engaging with populations which will continue beyond this pandemic. Therefore it is important that we understand the underlying factors contributing to digital inequalities, and act now to protect against digital inequality contributing to health inequalities in the future.

Factors influencing initiation of health behaviour conversations with patients: Cross-sectional study of nurses, midwives, and healthcare support workers in Wales.

AIM: To identify factors influencing healthcare professionals' engagement in health behaviour conversations with patients. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. METHODS: Between April and June 2019, an online survey of 1338 nurses, midwives and healthcare support workers was conducted. The survey assessed whether staff felt comfortable initiating health behaviour conversations with patients about five behaviours (reducing alcohol intake; stop smoking; being more active; reducing their weight; and improving their diet) and barriers to conversation initiation. Health professionals' own health-related behaviours, self-rated health and mental wellbeing, and socio-demographic characteristics were recorded. Logistic regression models were built to assess factors associated with feeling comfortable initiating health behaviour conversations for each topic. RESULT: Less than 50% of respondents reported feeling comfortable initiating health behaviour conversations with patients. Female staff, young professionals (18 to 29 years), those in lower staff grades and those with poorer health and low mental wellbeing were less likely to report feeling comfortable having health behaviour conversations across all topics. Those who did not adhere to physical activity and dietary guidelines were less likely to initiate a conversation about being more active and having a healthy diet, respectively. Not having time to discuss the topic, suitable space to hold a conversation, and feeling worried about offending/upsetting patients were the main barriers reported. CONCLUSION: Around 6 in 10 members of the nursing, midwifery and healthcare support workforce in Wales potentially do not feel comfortable to initiate a health behaviour conversation with patients about health and wellbeing. Feeling less comfortable to initiate a conversation was associated with staff demographics and organizational factors. IMPACT: We identified those less likely to initiate health behaviour conversations as well as personal and organizational barriers to initiation. This will help to target and tailor interventions to ensure staff are equipped and enabled to hold health behaviour conversations with patients.

Learning across the UK: a review of public health systems and policy approaches to early child development since political devolution.

BACKGROUND: Giving children the best start in life is critical for their future health and wellbeing. Political devolution in the UK provides a natural experiment to explore how public health systems contribute to children's early developmental outcomes across four countries. METHOD: A systematic literature review and input from a stakeholder group was used to develop a public health systems framework. This framework then informed analysis of public health policy approaches to early child development. RESULTS: A total of 118 studies met the inclusion criteria. All national policies championed a 'prevention approach' to early child development. Political factors shaped divergence, with variation in national conceptualizations of child development ('preparing for life' versus 'preparing for school') and pre-school provision ('universal entitlement' or 'earned benefit'). Poverty and resourcing were identified as key system factors that influenced outcomes. Scotland and Wales have enacted distinctive legislation focusing on wider determinants. However, this is limited by the extent of devolved powers. CONCLUSION: The systems framework clarifies policy complexity relating to early child development. The divergence of child development policies in the four countries and, particularly, the explicit recognition in Scottish and Welsh policy of wider determinants, creates scope for this topic to be a tracer area to compare UK public health systems longer term.

Getting the balance right-tackling the obesogenic environment by reducing unhealthy options in a hospital shop without affecting profit.

Background: UK hospitals have been criticized for fuelling obesity by allowing contracts with food retailers selling high fat and high-sugar products on hospital premises. Methods: We assessed the impact for a major retailer of increasing healthy food choices at their Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust outlet. To assess the impact on sales, profit and acceptability to customers, a multi-component intervention based on behavioural insights theory was enacted over 2 months (November-December 2014) at the Royal Free site WHSmith. Sales data on all food and drink were assessed over three time periods: (i) 2 months immediately prior to, and (ii) immediately after the intervention, and (iii) the equivalent period 10 months later. Acceptability to customers was assessed via questionnaires, and profit assessed as a proxy for retailer satisfaction. Results: Compared to the pre-intervention period, total sales increased immediately after the intervention, and again 10 months after the intervention. Sales of healthier options increased as a proportion of total sales following the intervention, sales of sweets and chocolates decreased, while the relative sales of other items remained similar. Conclusions: We demonstrated that healthier alternatives could be provided in a hospital retail premises without negatively affecting total sales, retailer or customer satisfaction.

Adverse childhood experiences and sources of childhood resilience: a retrospective study of their combined relationships with child health and educational attendance.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) including maltreatment and exposure to household stressors can impact the health of children. Community factors that provide support, friendship and opportunities for development may build children's resilience and protect them against some harmful impacts of ACEs. We examine if a history of ACEs is associated with poor childhood health and school attendance and the extent to which such outcomes are counteracted by community resilience assets. METHODS: A national (Wales) cross-sectional retrospective survey (n = 2452) using a stratified random probability sampling methodology and including a boost sample (n = 471) of Welsh speakers. Data collection used face-to-face interviews at participants' places of residence. Outcome measures were self-reported poor childhood health, specific conditions (asthma, allergies, headaches, digestive disorders) and school absenteeism. RESULTS: Prevalence of each common childhood condition, poor childhood health and school absenteeism increased with number of ACEs reported. Childhood community resilience assets (being treated fairly, supportive childhood friends, being given opportunities to use your abilities, access to a trusted adult and having someone to look up to) were independently linked to better outcomes. In those with ≥4 ACEs the presence of all significant resilience assets (vs none) reduced adjusted prevalence of poor childhood health from 59.8 to 21.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Better prevention of ACEs through the combined actions of public services may reduce levels of common childhood conditions, improve school attendance and help alleviate pressures on public services. Whilst the eradication of ACEs remains unlikely, actions to strengthen community resilience assets may partially offset their immediate harms.

The impact of alcohol care teams on emergency secondary care use following a diagnosis of alcoholic liver disease - a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The increasing mortality rates from alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) are a public health concern. To address this, alcohol care teams (ACT) case-find and lead management of alcohol issues for these patients. Local assessments of ACTs have shown reductions in emergency admissions and emergency department attendances. We examine the impact of ACTs on emergency hospital activity following a diagnosis of ARLD. METHODS: Administrative Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data were extracted. Information on ACT provision at English NHS hospital trusts and sites in 2009/10 was taken from a survey by Public Health England. We undertook a difference-in-difference analysis to compare emergency hospital activity for a cohort of individuals diagnosed with ARLD who presented to hospitals either with or without an ACT in the one year before and after a first ARLD diagnosis during 2009/10. RESULTS: Over the study period, 9,165 individuals eligible for inclusion in our study had a first diagnosis of ARLD. 4,768 presented to one of 41 hospital trusts with an ACT (59 sites) and 4,397 presented to one of 50 non-ACT hospital trusts (65 sites). Whilst age and sex demographics were similar between the two cohorts, the ACT hospital cohort had a higher proportion of individuals in the most deprived quintile (41.6 % v 28.5 % p < .0001). In the difference-in-difference analysis, the presence of an ACT at a hospital trust was not associated with a change in all-cause emergency admissions (0.020 (95 % CI -0.070, 0.111), p = 0.656), alcohol-related emergency admissions (-0.025 (95 % CI -0.104, 0.054), p = 0.536) or all-cause emergency department attendances (0.042 (95 % CI -0.087, 0.171), p = 0.521). Sensitivity analyses by sex and hospital site did not affect the study findings. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the presence of an ACT at the NHS hospital trust where individuals have their first recorded diagnosis of ARLD does not appear to be associated with subsequent emergency hospital activity within these populations. Further analysis focussing on the components and specific effects of ACT interventions on individuals and systems both pre- and post-diagnosis of ARLD may reveal important avenues to improve care.

Seeking Good Work in the COVID-19 Recovery: Shifting Priorities and Employment Choices Among Workers.

OBJECTIVE: Disruption to working lives spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic may shape people's preferences for future employment. We aimed to identify the components of work prioritized by a UK sample and the employment changes they had considered since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A nationally representative longitudinal household survey was conducted in Wales at two time points between 2020 and 2021. RESULTS: Those in poorer health prioritized flexibility and were more likely to consider retiring. Those with limiting preexisting conditions or low mental well-being were more likely to consider becoming self-employed. Those experiencing financial insecurity (including those with high wage precarity or those furloughed) were more likely to consider retraining, becoming self-employed, or securing permanent employment. CONCLUSIONS: Ensuring flexible, secure, and autonomous work is accessible for individuals facing greater employment-related insecurity may be key.