Climate change drives migratory range shift via individual plasticity in shearwaters.

How individual animals respond to climate change is key to whether populations will persist or go extinct. Yet, few studies investigate how changes in individual behavior underpin these population-level phenomena. Shifts in the distributions of migratory animals can occur through adaptation in migratory behaviors, but there is little understanding of how selection and plasticity contribute to population range shift. Here, we use long-term geolocator tracking of Balearic shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) to investigate how year-to-year changes in individual birds' migrations underpin a range shift in the post-breeding migration. We demonstrate a northward shift in the post-breeding range and show that this is brought about by individual plasticity in migratory destination, with individuals migrating further north in response to changes in sea-surface temperature. Furthermore, we find that when individuals migrate further, they return faster, perhaps minimizing delays in return to the breeding area. Birds apparently judge the increased distance that they will need to migrate via memory of the migration route, suggesting that spatial cognitive mechanisms may contribute to this plasticity and the resulting range shift. Our study exemplifies the role that individual behavior plays in populations' responses to environmental change and highlights some of the behavioral mechanisms that might be key to understanding and predicting species persistence in response to climate change.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

The impact of boldness on demographic rates and life-history outcomes in the wandering albatross.

Differences among individuals within a population are ubiquitous. Those differences are known to affect the entire life cycle with important consequences for all demographic rates and outcomes. One source of among-individual phenotypic variation that has received little attention from a demographic perspective is animal personality, which is defined as consistent and heritable behavioural differences between individuals. While many studies have shown that individual variation in individual personality can generate individual differences in survival and reproductive rates, the impact of personality on all demographic rates and outcomes remains to be assessed empirically. Here, we used a unique, long-term, dataset coupling demography and personality of wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans) in the Crozet Archipelago and a comprehensive analysis based on a suite of approaches (capture-mark-recapture statistical models, Markov chains models and structured matrix population models). We assessed the effect of boldness on annual demographic rates (survival, breeding probability, breeding success), life-history outcomes (life expectancy, lifetime reproductive outcome, occupancy times), and an integrative demographic outcome (population growth rate). We found that boldness had little impact on female demographic rates, but was very likely associated with lower breeding probabilities in males. By integrating the effects of boldness over the entire life cycle, we found that bolder males had slightly lower lifetime reproductive success compared to shyer males. Indeed, bolder males spent a greater proportion of their lifetime as non-breeders, which suggests longer inter-breeding intervals due to higher reproductive allocation. Our results reveal that the link between boldness and demography is more complex than anticipated by the pace-of-life literature and highlight the importance of considering the entire life cycle with a comprehensive approach when assessing the role of personality on individual performance and demography.

Human infrastructures correspond to higher Adélie penguin breeding success and growth rate.

Anthropogenic activities generate increasing disturbance in wildlife especially in extreme environments where species have to cope with rapid environmental changes. In Antarctica, while studies on human disturbance have mostly focused on stress response through physiological and behavioral changes, local variability in population dynamics has been addressed more scarcely. In addition, the mechanisms by which breeding communities are affected around research stations remain unclear. Our study aims at pointing out the fine-scale impact of human infrastructures on the spatial variability in Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies dynamics. Taking 24 years of population monitoring, we modeled colony breeding success and growth rate in response to both anthropic and land-based environmental variables. Building density around colonies was the second most important variable explaining spatial variability in breeding success after distance from skua nests, the main predators of penguins on land. Building density was positively associated with penguins breeding success. We discuss how buildings may protect penguins from avian predation and environmental conditions. The drivers of colony growth rate included topographical variables and the distance to human infrastructures. A strong correlation between 1-year lagged growth rate and colony breeding success was coherent with the use of public information by penguins to select their initial breeding site. Overall, our study brings new insights about the relative contribution and ecological implications of human presence on the local population dynamics of a sentinel species in Antarctica.

Individual life histories: neither slow nor fast, just diverse.

The slow-fast continuum is a commonly used framework to describe variation in life-history strategies across species. Individual life histories have also been assumed to follow a similar pattern, especially in the pace-of-life syndrome literature. However, whether a slow-fast continuum commonly explains life-history variation among individuals within a population remains unclear. Here, we formally tested for the presence of a slow-fast continuum of life histories both within populations and across species using detailed long-term individual-based demographic data for 17 bird and mammal species with markedly different life histories. We estimated adult lifespan, age at first reproduction, annual breeding frequency, and annual fecundity, and identified the main axes of life-history variation using principal component analyses. Across species, we retrieved the slow-fast continuum as the main axis of life-history variation. However, within populations, the patterns of individual life-history variation did not align with a slow-fast continuum in any species. Thus, a continuum ranking individuals from slow to fast living is unlikely to shape individual differences in life histories within populations. Rather, individual life-history variation is likely idiosyncratic across species, potentially because of processes such as stochasticity, density dependence, and individual differences in resource acquisition that affect species differently and generate non-generalizable patterns across species.

How does maternal age influence reproductive performance and offspring phenotype in the snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea)?

In wild vertebrates, the increase of breeding success with advancing age has been extensively studied through laying date, clutch size, hatching success, and fledging success. However, to better evaluate the influence of age on reproductive performance in species with high reproductive success, assessing not only reproductive success but also other proxies of reproductive performance appear crucial. For example, the quality of developmental conditions and offspring phenotype can provide robust and complementary information on reproductive performance. In long-lived vertebrate species, several proxies of developmental conditions can be used to estimate the quality of the produced offspring (i.e., body size, body condition, corticosterone levels, and telomere length), and therefore, their probability to survive. By sampling chicks reared by known-aged mothers, we investigated the influence of maternal age on reproductive performance and offspring quality in a long-lived bird species, the snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea). Older females bred and left their chick alone earlier. Moreover, older females had larger chicks that grew faster, and ultimately, those chicks had a higher survival probability at the nest. In addition, older mothers produced chicks with a higher sensitivity to stress, as shown by moderately higher stress-induced corticosterone levels. Overall, our study demonstrated that maternal age is correlated to reproductive performance (hatching date, duration of the guarding period and survival) and offspring quality (body size, growth rate and sensitivity to stress), suggesting that older individuals provide better parental cares to their offspring. These results also demonstrate that maternal age can affect the offspring phenotype with potential long-term consequences.

Linking 19th century European settlement to the disruption of a seabird's natural population dynamics.

Recent estimates indicate that ∼70% of the world's seabird populations have declined since the 1950s due to human activities. However, for almost all bird populations, there is insufficient long-term monitoring to understand baseline (i.e., preindustrial) conditions, which are required to distinguish natural versus anthropogenically driven changes. Here, we address this lack of long-term monitoring data with multiproxy paleolimnological approaches to examine the long-term population dynamics of a major colony of Leach's Storm-petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous) on Grand Colombier Island in the St. Pierre and Miquelon archipelago-an overseas French territory in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. By reconstructing the last ∼5,800 y of storm-petrel dynamics, we demonstrate that this colony underwent substantial natural fluctuations until the start of the 19th century, when population cycles were disrupted, coinciding with the establishment and expansion of a European settlement. Our paleoenvironmental data, coupled with on-the-ground population surveys, indicate that the current colony is only ∼16% of the potential carrying capacity, reinforcing concerning trends of globally declining seabird populations. As seabirds are sentinel species of marine ecosystem health, such declines provide a call to action for global conservation. In response, we emphasize the need for enlarged protected areas and the rehabilitation of disturbed islands to protect ecologically critical seabird populations. Furthermore, long-term data, such as those provided by paleoecological approaches, are required to better understand shifting baselines in conservation to truly recognize current rates of ecological loss.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species' life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Causes and consequences of pair-bond disruption in a sex-skewed population of a long-lived monogamous seabird.

Many animals form long-term monogamous pair bonds, and the disruption of a pair bond (through either divorce or widowhood) can have significant consequences for individual vital rates (survival, breeding, and breeding success probabilities) and life-history outcomes (lifetime reproductive success [LRS], life expectancy). Here, we investigated the causes and consequences of pair-bond disruption in wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). State-of-the-art statistical and mathematical approaches were developed to estimate divorce and widowhood rates and their impacts on vital rates and life-history outcomes. In this population, females incur a higher mortality rate due to incidental fishery bycatch, so the population is male-skewed. Therefore, we first posited that males would show higher widowhood rates negatively correlated with fishing effort and females would have higher divorce rates because they have more mating opportunities. Furthermore, we expected that divorce could be an adaptive strategy, whereby individuals improved breeding success by breeding with a new partner of better quality. Finally, we posited that pair-bond disruptions could reduce survival and breeding probabilities owing to the cost of remating processes, with important consequences for life-history outcomes. As expected, we showed that males had higher widowhood rates than females and females had higher divorce rates in this male-skewed population. However, no correlation was found between fishing effort and male widowhood. Secondly, contrary to our expectation, we found that divorce was likely nonadaptive in this population. We propose that divorce in this population is caused by an intruder who outcompetes the original partner in line with the so-called forced divorce hypothesis. Furthermore, we found a 16.7% and 18.0% reduction in LRS only for divorced and widowed males, respectively, owing to missing breeding seasons after a pair-bond disruption. Finally, we found that divorced individuals were more likely to divorce again, but whether this is related to specific individual characteristics remains an important area of investigation.

Boldness predicts divorce rates in wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans).

Personality predicts divorce rates in humans, yet how personality traits affect divorce in wild animals remains largely unknown. In a male-skewed population of wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans), we showed that personality predicts divorce; shyer males exhibited higher divorce rates than bolder males but no such relationship was found in females. We propose that divorce may be caused by the intrusion of male competitors and shyer males divorce more often because of their avoidance of territorial aggression, while females have easier access to mates regardless of their personality. Thus, personality may have important implications for the dynamics of social relationships.

Stage-dependent niche segregation: insights from a multi-dimensional approach of two sympatric sibling seabirds.

Niche theory predicts that to reduce competition for the same resource, sympatric ecologically similar species should exploit divergent niches and segregate in one or more dimensions. Seasonal variations in environmental conditions and energy requirements can influence the mechanisms and the degree of niche segregation. However, studies have overlooked the multi-dimensional aspect of niche segregation over the whole annual cycle, and key facets of species co-existence still remain ambiguous. The present study provides insights into the niche use and partitioning of two morphologically and ecologically similar seabirds, the common (CDP, Pelecanoides urinatrix) and the South Georgian diving petrel (SGDP, Pelecanoides georgicus). Using phenology, at-sea distribution, diving behavior and isotopic data (during the incubation, chick-rearing and non-breeding periods), we show that the degree of partitioning was highly stage-dependent. During the breeding season, the greater niche segregation during chick-rearing than incubation supported the hypothesis that resource partitioning increases during energetically demanding periods. During the post breeding period, while species-specific latitudinal differences were expected (species specific water mass preference), CDP and SGDP also migrated in divergent directions. This segregation in migration area may not be only a response to the selective pressure arising from competition avoidance between sympatric species, but instead, could reflect past evolutionary divergence. Such stage-dependent and context-dependent niche segregation demonstrates the importance of integrative approaches combining techniques from different fields, throughout the entire annual cycle, to better understand the co-existence of ecologically similar species. This is particularly relevant in order to fully understand the short and long-term effects of ongoing environmental changes on species distributions and communities.This work demonstrates the need of integrative multi-dimensional approaches combining concepts and techniques from different fields to understand the mechanism and causal factors of niche segregation.

Selection against immigrants in wild seabird populations.

Immigration is a major demographic parameter shaping population dynamics and is an important driver of eco-evolutionary patterns, but the fitness consequences for individuals following their settlement to a new population (immigrants) remain poorly tested in wild animal populations, particularly among long-lived species. Here we show that immigrants have a lower fitness than residents in three wild seabird populations (wandering albatross Diomedea exulans, southern fulmar Fulmarus glacialoides, snow petrel Pagodroma nivea). Across all species and during a 32-year period, immigrants made on average -9 to 29% fewer breeding attempts, had 5-31% fewer fledglings, had 2-16% lower breeding success and produced 6-46% fewer recruits. Female immigration and male residency were also favored through differences in breeding performance. We provide evidence for selection against immigrants in wild populations of long-lived species and our results are consistent with female-biased dispersal in birds being driven by asymmetric limiting resources and the competitive ability of dispersers vs. non-dispersers.

Untangling local and remote influences in two major petrel habitats in the oligotrophic Southern Ocean.

Ocean circulation connects geographically distinct ecosystems across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales via exchanges of physical and biogeochemical properties. Remote oceanographic processes can be especially important for ecosystems in the Southern Ocean, where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transports properties across ocean basins through both advection and mixing. Recent tracking studies have indicated the existence of two large-scale, open ocean habitats in the Southern Ocean used by grey petrels (Procellaria cinerea) from two populations (i.e., Kerguelen and Antipodes islands) during their nonbreeding season for extended periods during austral summer (i.e., October to February). In this work, we use a novel combination of large-scale oceanographic observations, surface drifter data, satellite-derived primary productivity, numerical adjoint sensitivity experiments, and output from a biogeochemical state estimate to examine local and remote influences on these grey petrel habitats. Our aim is to understand the oceanographic features that control these isolated foraging areas and to evaluate their ecological value as oligotrophic open ocean habitats. We estimate the minimum local primary productivity required to support these populations to be much <1% of the estimated local primary productivity. The region in the southeast Indian Ocean used by the birds from Kerguelen is connected by circulation to the productive Kerguelen shelf. In contrast, the region in the south-central Pacific Ocean used by seabirds from the Antipodes is relatively isolated suggesting it is more influenced by local factors or the cumulative effects of many seasonal cycles. This work exemplifies the potential use of predator distributions and oceanographic data to highlight areas of the open ocean that may be more dynamic and productive than previously thought. Our results highlight the need to consider advective connections between ecosystems in the Southern Ocean and to re-evaluate the ecological relevance of oligotrophic Southern Ocean regions from a conservation perspective.

"Home alone!" influence of nest parental attendance on offspring behavioral and hormonal stress responses in an Antarctic seabird, the snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea).

In altricial species, parents brood their chicks constantly before leaving them unattended sometimes for extended periods when they become thermally independent. During this second phase, there is sometimes important inter-individual differences in parental attendance and the fitness costs and benefits of parental strategies have previously been extensively investigated. However, the impact of parental presence on offspring behaviors and stress physiology has been overlooked. Here, we examined the influence of parental presence on offspring hormonal and behavioral stress sensitivities in snow petrel chicks. We demonstrated for the first time in a wild bird species that attended chicks had lower stress-induced corticosterone levels and a lower probability to show defensive behavior compared to the alone chicks. This reduced stress sensitivity is certainly explained by the well-known link between corticosterone and nutritional status, and by the recent delivery of meals to the attended chicks and the improvement of their nutritional status. It may also be explained by the parental protection against predators or inclement weather, or/and by the psychosocial comfort of parental presence for the offspring. Overall, these results suggest that the presence of a parent in the nest reduces offspring stress sensitivity in wild birds. Further studies would now be required to disentangle the impact of nutritional status and parental presence on stress sensitivity and to better understand the potential impact of parental presence and circulating corticosterone levels on growth and cognitive development in wild birds.

Landfast ice: a major driver of reproductive success in a polar seabird.

In a fast-changing world, polar ecosystems are threatened by climate variability. Understanding the roles of fine-scale processes, and linear and nonlinear effects of climate factors on the demography of polar species is crucial for anticipating the future state of these fragile ecosystems. While the effects of sea ice on polar marine top predators are increasingly being studied, little is known about the impacts of landfast ice (LFI) on this species community. Based on a unique 39-year time series of satellite imagery and in situ meteorological conditions and on the world's longest dataset of emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) breeding parameters, we studied the effects of fine-scale variability of LFI and weather conditions on this species' reproductive success. We found that longer distances to the LFI edge (i.e. foraging areas) negatively affected the overall breeding success but also the fledging success. Climate window analyses suggested that chick mortality was particularly sensitive to LFI variability between August and November. Snowfall in May also affected hatching success. Given the sensitivity of LFI to storms and changes in wind direction, important future repercussions on the breeding habitat of emperor penguins are to be expected in the context of climate change.

Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range-wide multiscale analysis.

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range-wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., "prevailing" environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year-to-year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year-to-year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short-term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short- and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.

Population response of an apex Antarctic consumer to its prey and climate fluctuations.

A fundamental endeavor in population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics. A few empirical studies included the effect of prey abundance when investigating simultaneously the effects of density-dependence and climate factors on marine top-predator population dynamics. Our aim was to unravel the mechanisms forcing population dynamics of an apex consumer seabird, the south polar skua, using long-term climatic and population time series of the consumer and its prey in Terre Adélie, Antarctica. Influences of density-dependence, climatic factors, and prey abundance with lag effects were tested on the breeding population dynamics with a Bayesian multi-model inference approach. We evidenced a negative trend in breeding population growth rate when density increased. Lagged effects of sea-ice concentration and air temperature in spring and a contemporary effect of prey resources were supported. Remarkably, results outline a reverse response of the south polar skua and one of its main preys to the same environmental factor (sea-ice concentration), suggesting a strong link between skua and penguin dynamics. The causal mechanisms may involve competition for food and space through territorial behavior as well as local climate and prey availability, which probably operate on breeding parameters (breeding propensity, breeding success, or recruitment) rather than on adult survival. Our results provide new insights on the relative importance of factors forcing the population dynamics of an apex consumer including density-dependence, local climate conditions, and direct and indirect effects of prey abundance.

Exposure of breeding albatrosses to the agent of avian cholera: dynamics of antibody levels and ecological implications.

Despite critical implications for disease dynamics and surveillance in wild long-lived species, the immune response after exposure to potentially highly pathogenic bacterial disease agents is still poorly known. Among infectious diseases threatening wild populations, avian cholera, caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida, is a major concern. It frequently causes massive mortality events in wild populations, notably affecting nestlings of Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses (Thalassarche carteri) in the Indian Ocean. If adults are able to mount a long-term immune response, this could have important consequences regarding the dynamics of the pathogen in the local host community and the potential interest of vaccinating breeding females to transfer immunity to their offspring. By tracking the dynamics of antibodies against P. multocida during 4 years and implementing a vaccination experiment in a population of yellow-nosed albatrosses, we show that a significant proportion of adults were naturally exposed despite high annual survival for both vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals. Adult-specific antibody levels were thus maintained long enough to inform about recent exposure. However, only low levels of maternal antibodies could be detected in nestlings the year following a vaccination of their mothers. A modification of the vaccine formulation and the possibility to re-vaccinate females 2 years after the first vaccination revealed that vaccines have the potential to elicit a stronger and more persistent response. Such results highlight the value of long-term observational and experimental studies of host exposure to infectious agents in the wild, where ecological and evolutionary processes are likely critical for driving disease dynamics.

From early life to senescence: individual heterogeneity in a long-lived seabird.

Although population studies have long assumed that all individuals of a given sex and age are identical, ignoring among-individual differences may strongly bias our perception of eco-evolutionary processes. Individual heterogeneity, often referred to as individual quality, has received increasing research attention in the last decades. However, there are still substantial gaps in our current knowledge. For example, there is little information on how individual heterogeneity influences various life-history traits simultaneously, and studies describing individual heterogeneity in wild populations are generally not able to jointly identify possible sources of this variation. Here, based on a mark-recapture data set of 9,685 known-aged Wandering Albatrosses (Diomedea exulans), we investigated the existence of individual quality over the entire life cycle of this species, from early life to senescence. Using finite mixture models, we investigated the expression of individual heterogeneity in various demographic traits, and examined the origin of these among-individual differences by considering the natal environmental conditions. We found that some individuals consistently outperformed others during most of their life. In old age, however, the senescence rate was stronger in males that showed high demographic performance at younger ages. Variation in individual quality seemed strongly affected by extrinsic factors experienced during the ontogenetic period. We found that individuals born in years with high population density tended to have lower performances during their lifespan, suggesting delayed density dependence effects through individual quality. Our study showed that among-individual differences could be important in structuring individual life history trajectories, with substantial consequences at higher ecological levels such as population dynamics.

Reproductive performance and diving behaviour share a common sea-ice concentration optimum in Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae).

The Southern Ocean is currently experiencing major environmental changes, including in sea-ice cover. Such changes strongly influence ecosystem structure and functioning and affect the survival and reproduction of predators such as seabirds. These effects are likely mediated by reduced availability of food resources. As such, seabirds are reliable eco-indicators of environmental conditions in the Antarctic region. Here, based on 9 years of sea-ice data, we found that the breeding success of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) reaches a peak at intermediate sea-ice cover (ca. 20%). We further examined the effects of sea-ice conditions on the foraging activity of penguins, measured at multiple scales from individual dives to foraging trips. Analysis of temporal organisation of dives, including fractal and bout analyses, revealed an increasingly consistent behaviour during years with extensive sea-ice cover. The relationship between several dive parameters and sea-ice cover in the foraging area appears to be quadratic. In years of low and high sea-ice cover, individuals adjusted their diving effort by generally diving deeper, more frequently and by resting at the surface between dives for shorter periods of time than in years with intermediate sea-ice cover. Our study therefore suggests that sea-ice cover is likely to affect the reproductive performance of Adélie penguins through its effects on foraging behaviour, as breeding success and most diving parameters share a common optimum. Some years, however, deviated from this general trend, suggesting that other factors (e.g. precipitation during the breeding season) might sometimes become preponderant over the sea-ice effects on breeding and foraging performance. Our study highlights the value of monitoring fitness parameters and individual behaviour concomitantly over the long-term to better characterize optimal environmental conditions and potential resilience of wildlife. Such an approach is crucial if we want to anticipate the effects of environmental change on Antarctic penguin populations.