Recent trends in primary-care antidepressant prescribing to children and young people: an e-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Concerns relating to increased use of psychotropic medication contrast with those of under-treatment and under-recognition of common mental disorders in children and young people (CYP) across developed countries. Little is known about the indications recorded for antidepressant prescribing in primary care in CYP. METHOD: This was an electronic cohort study of routinely collected primary-care data from a population of 1.9 million, Wales, UK. Poisson regression was undertaken to model adjusted counts of recorded depression symptoms, diagnoses and antidepressant prescriptions. Associated indications were explored. RESULTS: 3 58 383 registered patients aged 6-18 years between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2013 provided a total of 19 20 338 person-years of follow-up. The adjusted incidence of antidepressant prescribing increased significantly [incidence rate ratio (IRR) for 2013 = 1.28], mainly in older adolescents. The majority of new antidepressant prescriptions were for citalopram. Recorded depression diagnoses showed a steady decline (IRR = 0.72) while depression symptoms (IRR = 2.41) increased. Just over half of new antidepressant prescriptions were associated with depression (diagnosis or symptoms). Other antidepressant prescribing, largely unlicensed, was associated with diagnoses such as anxiety and pain. CONCLUSION: Antidepressant prescribing is increasing in CYP while recorded depression diagnoses decline. Unlicensed citalopram prescribing occurs outside current guidelines, despite its known toxicity in overdose. Unlicensed antidepressant prescribing is associated with a wide range of diagnoses, and while accepted practice, is often not supported by safety and efficacy studies. New strategies to implement current guidance for the management of depression in CYP are required.

Trends in suicidal ideation in England: the national psychiatric morbidity surveys of 2000 and 2007.

BACKGROUND: Recent falls in suicide rates should be accompanied by a decline in the prevalence of suicidal ideation. METHOD: We used a pseudo-cohort analytic strategy to examine trends in suicidal ideation measured identically in 2000 and 2007, in nationally representative English probability samples of adults aged ≥ 16 years. Suicidal ideation included tiredness of life, death wishes and thoughts of suicide. Logistic regression models were fitted to estimate trends in age-specific prevalence of suicidal ideation in the past year and past week between 2000 and 2007. RESULTS: There were 6799 participants aged 16-71 years in 2000, and 6815 participants aged 16-78 years in 2007. There was little evidence of trends in prevalence of suicidal ideation, with the exception of women aged 44-50 years in 2007, whose prevalence was unusually high. Prevalence of suicidal ideation in the past year followed a W-shaped profile with age, with peaks at the transition to adulthood, in the forties, and in the oldest participants. CONCLUSIONS: Despite falling suicide rates, suicidal ideation did not decline overall between 2000 and 2007. This may indicate the success of the National Suicide Prevention Strategy. Women aged 44-50 years in 2007 were, however, particularly prone to suicidal ideation. As they also have the highest age-adjusted prevalence of common mental disorders and the highest female suicide rate, there are clear implications for treatment access, availability and delivery in primary care.

Personal debt and suicidal ideation.

BACKGROUND: Personal debt is one of many factors associated with anxiety, depression and suicidality. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between personal debt and suicidal ideation in the context of sociodemographic factors, employment and income, lifestyle behaviours, and recently experienced traumatic events. METHOD: Interviews were conducted with a random probability sample comprising 7461 respondents for the third national survey of psychiatric morbidity of adults in England. Fieldwork was carried out throughout 2007. The prevalence of suicidal thoughts in the past week, past year and lifetime was assessed and current sources of debt were recorded. RESULTS: In 2007, 4.3% of adults in England had thought about taking their own life in the past 12 months, ranging from 1.8% of men aged ≥ 55 years to 7.0% of women aged 35-54 years. Those in debt were twice as likely to think about suicide after controlling for sociodemographic, economic, social and lifestyle factors. Difficulty in making hire purchase or mail order repayments and paying off credit card debt, in addition to housing-related debt (rent and mortgage arrears), was strongly associated with suicidal thoughts. Feelings of hopelessness partially mediated the relationship between debt and suicidal ideation. CONCLUSIONS: The number of debts, source of the debt and reasons for debt are key correlates of suicidal ideation. Individuals experiencing difficulties in repaying their debts because they are unemployed or have had a relationship breakdown or have heavy caring responsibilities may require psychiatric evaluation in addition to debt counselling.

Solution structure of kistrin, a potent platelet aggregation inhibitor and GP IIb-IIIa antagonist.

The structure of kistrin, which is a member of a homologous family of glycoprotein IIb-IIIa (GP IIb-IIIa) antagonists and potent protein inhibitors of platelet aggregation, has been determined by two-dimensional nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. The 68-residue protein consists of a series of tightly packed loops held together by six disulfide bonds and has almost no regular secondary structure. Kistrin has an Arg-Gly-Asp (RGD) adhesion site recognition sequence important for binding to GP IIb-IIIa that is located at the apex of a long loop across the surface of the protein.

Do acute diffusion- and perfusion-weighted MRI lesions identify final infarct volume in ischemic stroke?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: An acute mismatch on diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI) and perfusion-weighted MRI (PWI) may represent the "tissue-at-risk." It is unclear which "semiquantitative" perfusion parameter most closely identifies final infarct volume. METHODS: Acute stroke patients underwent DWI and PWI (dynamic-susceptibility contrast imaging) on admission (baseline), and T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) at 1 or 3 months after stroke. "Semiquantitative" mean transit time (MTTsq=first moment of concentration/time curve), cerebral blood volume (CBVsq=area under concentration/time curve), and cerebral blood flow (CBFsq=CBVsq/MTTsq) were calculated. DWI and PWI lesions were measured at baseline and final infarct volume on T2WI acquired > or =1 month after stroke. Baseline DWI, CBFsq, and MTTsq lesion volumes were compared with final T2WI lesion volume. RESULTS: Among 46 patients, baseline DWI and CBFsq lesions were not significantly different from final T2WI lesion volume, but baseline MTTsq lesions were significantly larger. The correlation with final T2WI lesion volume was strongest for DWI (Spearman rank correlation coefficient rho=0.68), intermediate for CBFsq (rho=0.55), and weakest for MTTsq (rho=0.49) baseline lesion volumes. Neither DWI/CBFsq nor DWI/MTTsq mismatch predicted lesion growth; lesion growth was equally common in those with and without mismatch. CONCLUSIONS: Of the 2 PWI parameters, CBFsq lesions most closely identifies, and MTTsq overestimates, final T2WI lesion volume. "DWI/PWI mismatch" does not identify lesion growth. Patients without "DWI/PWI mismatch" are equally likely to have lesion growth as those with mismatch and should not be excluded from acute stroke treatment.

Effect of timing and method of enteral tube feeding for dysphagic stroke patients (FOOD): a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition is common in patients admitted with stroke. We aimed to establish whether the timing and route of enteral tube feeding after stroke affected patients' outcomes at 6 months. METHODS: The FOOD trials consist of three pragmatic multicentre randomised controlled trials, two of which included dysphagic stroke patients. In one trial, patients enrolled within 7 days of admission were randomly allocated to early enteral tube feeding or no tube feeding for more than 7 days (early versus avoid). In the other, patients were allocated percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) or nasogastric feeding. The primary outcome was death or poor outcome at 6 months. Analysis was by intention to treat. FINDINGS: Between Nov 1, 1996, and July 31, 2003, 859 patients were enrolled by 83 hospitals in 15 countries into the early versus avoid trial. Early tube feeding was associated with an absolute reduction in risk of death of 5.8% (95% CI -0.8 to 12.5, p=0.09) and a reduction in death or poor outcome of 1.2% (-4.2 to 6.6, p=0.7). In the PEG versus nasogastric tube trial, 321 patients were enrolled by 47 hospitals in 11 countries. PEG feeding was associated with an absolute increase in risk of death of 1.0% (-10.0 to 11.9, p=0.9) and an increased risk of death or poor outcome of 7.8% (0.0 to 15.5, p=0.05). INTERPRETATION: Early tube feeding might reduce case fatality, but at the expense of increasing the proportion surviving with poor outcome. Our data do not support a policy of early initiation of PEG feeding in dysphagic stroke patients.

Routine oral nutritional supplementation for stroke patients in hospital (FOOD): a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition is common in hospital patients with stroke, can develop or worsen in hospital, and is associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to establish whether routine oral nutritional supplements improve outcome after stroke. METHODS: The FOOD trials are a family of three pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trials. We measured the outcomes of stroke patients who could swallow and who were randomly allocated normal hospital diet or normal hospital diet plus oral nutritional supplements until hospital discharge. The primary outcome was death or poor outcome (modified Rankin scale [MRS] grade 3-5), 6 months after enrollment, measured unaware of treatment allocation. Analysis was by intention to treat. FINDINGS: Between Nov 1, 1996, and July 31, 2003, 4023 patients were enrolled by 125 hospitals in 15 countries. Only 314 (8%) patients were judged to be undernourished at baseline. Vital status and MRS at the end of the trial were known for 4012 and 4004 patients, respectively. Supplemented diet was associated with an absolute reduction in risk of death of 0.7% (95% CI -1.4 to 2.7) and an increased risk of death or poor outcome of 0.7% (-2.3 to 3.8). INTERPRETATION: We could not confirm the anticipated 4% absolute benefit for death or poor outcome from routine oral nutritional supplements for mainly well nourished stroke patients in hospital. Our results would be compatible with a 1% or 2% absolute benefit or harm from oral supplements. These results do not support a policy of routine oral supplementation after stroke.

No evidence that severity of stroke in internal carotid occlusion is related to collateral arteries.

BACKGROUND/AIM: The neurological effects of internal carotid artery (ICA) occlusion vary between patients. The authors investigated whether the severity of symptoms in a large group of patients with ipsilateral or/and contralateral ICA occlusion at presentation with ocular or cerebral ischaemic symptoms could be explained by patency of other extra or intracranial arteries to act as collateral pathways. METHODS: The authors prospectively identified all patients (n = 2881) with stroke, cerebral transient ischaemic attack (TIA), retinal artery occlusion (RAO), and amaurosis fugax (AFx) presenting to our hospital over five years, obtained detailed history and examination, and examined the intra and extracranial arteries with carotid and colour-power transcranial Doppler ultrasound. For this analysis, all those with intracranial haemorrhage on brain imaging and cerebral events without brain imaging were excluded. RESULTS: Among 2228/2397 patients with brain imaging (1713 ischaemic strokes, 401 cerebral TIAs, 193 AFx, and 90 RAO) who underwent carotid Doppler, 195 (9%) had ICA occlusion. Among those patients with cortical events, disease in potential collateral arteries (contralateral ICA, external carotid, ipsilateral or contralateral vertebral or intracranial arteries) was equally distributed among patients with severe and mild ischaemic presenting symptoms. CONCLUSION: The authors found no evidence that the clinical presentation associated with an ICA occlusion was related to patency of other extra or intracranial arteries to act as collateral pathways. Further work is required to investigate what determines the clinical effects of ICA occlusion.

Sleep-disordered breathing after stroke: a randomised controlled trial of continuous positive airway pressure.

BACKGROUND: Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is common after stroke, but it is unclear whether it should be treated. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a randomised controlled trial of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) after stroke. METHODS: Patients with stroke with > or = 30 apnoeas and hypopnoeas per hour ((A+H)/h) with predominant obstructive sleep apnoea or hypopnoea were randomised to either CPAP treatment or conservative treatment for 8 weeks. Outcomes were measured blind to treatment allocation at 8 weeks and 6 months after the stroke. The primary outcome was physical function on the Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living Scale. RESULTS: Of 658 patients with stroke screened, only 71 (10.7%) were eligible and consented to a sleep study 14-19 days after stroke. 66 patients completed the sleep study (21 women; mean age 72 years), 33 (50%) had > or = 30 (A+H)/h that were predominantly obstructive. 15 were randomised to CPAP treatment and 15 to conventional treatment. Despite intensive efforts, objective use of CPAP was poor, averaging 1.4 h a night. CPAP treatment resulted in no significant improvements (p>0.1) in the primary outcome or in neurological function or sleepiness, and in poorer health status on some measures. CONCLUSIONS: This trial showed no benefit from CPAP treatment, the relevance of the observed detrimental effects is questionable. Even in our highly selected patients with stroke, use of CPAP was poor. At present, CPAP treatment should be advocated for patients with stroke only if they have symptoms of SDB.

The factor VII zymogen structure reveals reregistration of beta strands during activation.

BACKGROUND: Coagulation factor VIIa (FVIIa) contains a Trypsin-like serine protease domain and initiates the cascade of proteolytic events leading to Thrombin activation and blood clot formation. Vascular injury allows formation of the complex between circulating FVIIa and its cell surface bound obligate cofactor, Tissue Factor (TF). Circulating FVIIa is nominally activated but retains zymogen-like character and requires TF in order to complete the zymogen-to-enzyme transition. The manner in which TF exerts this effect is unclear. The structure of TF/FVIIa is known. Knowledge of the zymogen structure is helpful for understanding the activation transition in this system. RESULTS: The 2 A resolution crystal structure of a zymogen form of FVII comprising the EGF2 and protease domains is revealed in a complex with the exosite binding inhibitory peptide A-183 and a vacant active site. The activation domain, which includes the N terminus, differs in ways beyond those that are expected for zymogens in the Trypsin family. There are large differences in the TF binding region. An unprecedented 3 residue shift in registration between beta strands B2 and A2 in the C-terminal beta barrel and hydrogen bonds involving Glu154 provide new insight into conformational changes accompanying zymogen activation, TF binding, and enzymatic competence. CONCLUSIONS: TF-mediated allosteric control of the activity of FVIIa can be rationalized. The reregistering beta strand connects the TF binding region and the N-terminal region. The zymogen registration allows H bonds that prevent the N terminus from attaining a key salt bridge with the active site. TF binding may influence an equilibrium by selecting the enzymatically competent registration.

Prospective Design of Anti-Transferrin Receptor Bispecific Antibodies for Optimal Delivery into the Human Brain.

Anti-transferrin receptor (TfR)-based bispecific antibodies have shown promise for boosting antibody uptake in the brain. Nevertheless, there are limited data on the molecular properties, including affinity required for successful development of TfR-based therapeutics. A complex nonmonotonic relationship exists between affinity of the anti-TfR arm and brain uptake at therapeutically relevant doses. However, the quantitative nature of this relationship and its translatability to humans is heretofore unexplored. Therefore, we developed a mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model for bispecific anti-TfR/BACE1 antibodies that accounts for antibody-TfR interactions at the blood-brain barrier (BBB) as well as the pharmacodynamic (PD) effect of anti-BACE1 arm. The calibrated model correctly predicted the optimal anti-TfR affinity required to maximize brain exposure of therapeutic antibodies in the cynomolgus monkey and was scaled to predict the optimal affinity of anti-TfR bispecifics in humans. Thus, this model provides a framework for testing critical translational predictions for anti-TfR bispecific antibodies, including choice of candidate molecule for clinical development.

Change in stroke incidence, mortality, case-fatality, severity, and risk factors in Oxfordshire, UK from 1981 to 2004 (Oxford Vascular Study).

BACKGROUND: The incidence of stroke is predicted to rise because of the rapidly ageing population. However, over the past two decades, findings of randomised trials have identified several interventions that are effective in prevention of stroke. Reliable data on time-trends in stroke incidence, major risk factors, and use of preventive treatments in an ageing population are required to ascertain whether implementation of preventive strategies can offset the predicted rise in stroke incidence. We aimed to obtain these data. METHODS: We ascertained changes in incidence of transient ischaemic attack and stroke, risk factors, and premorbid use of preventive treatments from 1981-84 (Oxford Community Stroke Project; OCSP) to 2002-04 (Oxford Vascular Study; OXVASC). FINDINGS: Of 476 patients with transient ischaemic attacks or strokes in OXVASC, 262 strokes and 93 transient ischaemic attacks were incident events. Despite more complete case-ascertainment than in OCSP, age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence of first-ever stroke fell by 29% (relative incidence 0.71, 95% CI 0.61-0.83, p=0.0002). Incidence declined by more than 50% for primary intracerebral haemorrhage (0.47, 0.27-0.83, p=0.01) but was unchanged for subarachnoid haemorrhage (0.83, 0.44-1.57, p=0.57). Thus, although 28% more incident strokes (366 vs 286) were expected in OXVASC due to demographic change alone (33% increase in those aged 75 or older), the observed number fell (262 vs 286). Major reductions were recorded in mortality rates for incident stroke (0.63, 0.44-0.90, p=0.02) and in incidence of disabling or fatal stroke (0.60, 0.50-0.73, p<0.0001), but no change was seen in case-fatality due to incident stroke (17.2% vs 17.8%; age and sex adjusted relative risk 0.85, 95% CI 0.57-1.28, p=0.45). Comparison of premorbid risk factors revealed substantial reductions in the proportion of smokers, mean total cholesterol, and mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures and major increases in premorbid treatment with antiplatelet, lipid-lowering, and blood pressure lowering drugs (all p<0.0001). INTERPRETATION: The age-specific incidence of major stroke in Oxfordshire has fallen by 40% over the past 20 years in association with increased use of preventive treatments and major reductions in premorbid risk factors.

A study of statin use in the prevention of cognitive impairment of vascular origin in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: There is increasing evidence suggesting that control of hypertension and antiplatelet therapy may prevent or reduce progression of vascular-related cognitive impairment (VCI), though a similar role of statins in this group of patients has yet to be established. METHODS: We conducted a postal survey of a group of 296 medical practitioners (comprising of physicians and psychiatrists specialising in the elderly, and general practitioners) inquiring into their management of (a) patients at high risk of developing VCI and (b) patients with established VCI. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 60% (177/296), with the highest response rate from psychiatrists. (a) For patients at high risk of developing VCI: 47% of clinicians believed that statins had an important role in preventing subsequent dementia: 4% would commence statins at a total cholesterol (TC) of 4-5 mmol/L; 38% with a TC of 5.1-6.5 mmol/L; and 32% with a TC of 6.6-8 mmol/L. Cardiovascular risk profile, age, cost and gender were other factors considered as important factors influencing statin prescription. (b) In those patients with established VCI: 32% of clinicians felt that statins had an important role in arresting progression, usually in people with a mild degree of cognitive impairment: 4% would commence statins at a TC of 4-5 mmol/L; 25% with a TC of 5.1-6.5 mmol/L; and 22% with a TC of 6.6-8 mmol/L. There were no major differences between clinicians in their prescribing habits. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of clinicians favour the use of statins in primary and secondary prevention of cognitive impairment of vascular origin, despite a lack of definite evidence to support their use at the present time.

Recent trends in the incidence of anxiety and prescription of anxiolytics and hypnotics in children and young people: An e-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known regarding the recognition of anxiety in children and young people (CYP) in primary care. This study examined trends in the presentation, recognition and recording of anxiety and of anxiolytic and hypnotic prescriptions for CYP in primary care. METHOD: A population-based retrospective electronic cohort of individuals aged 6-18 years between 2003 and 2011 within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank primary care database was created. Incidence rates were calculated using person years at risk (PYAR) as a denominator accounting for deprivation, age and gender. RESULTS: We identified a cohort of 311,343 registered individuals providing a total of 1,546,489 person years of follow up. The incidence of anxiety symptoms more than tripled over the study period (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR)=3.55, 95% CI 2.65-4.77) whilst that of diagnosis has remained stable. Anxiolytic/hypnotic prescriptions for the cohort as a whole did not change significantly over time; however there was a significant increase in anxiolytic prescriptions for the 15-18 year age group (IRR 1.62, 95% CI 1.30-2.02). LIMITATIONS: There was a lack of reliable information regarding other interventions available or received at a primary, secondary or tertiary level such as psychological treatments. CONCLUSIONS: There appears to be a preference over time for the recording of general symptoms over diagnosis for anxiety in CYP. The increase in anxiolytic prescriptions for 15-18 year olds is discrepant with current prescribing guidelines. Specific guidance is required for the assessment and management of CYP presenting with anxiety to primary care, particularly older adolescents.

Effects of kistrin on bone resorption in vitro and serum calcium in vivo.

In many cell systems, cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions are mediated by integrins, a family of cell surface heterodimeric glycoprotein receptors. Osteoclast integrins may play a role in the process of bone resorption. Osteoclasts express the alpha v and beta 3 subunits of the vitronectin receptor and adhere to a wide range of proteins in vitro, all which contain the amino acid sequence Arg-Gly-Asp (RGD), an adhesion site recognition sequence common to many protein ligands that bind to integrins. The effect of kistrin, an RGD-containing snake venom protein, on osteoclast-mediated bone resorption was investigated in vivo and in vitro. When kistrin was infused into normocalcemic and hypercalcemic mice, serum calcium was significantly lowered at 3 and 6 h after the start of infusion, indicating an inhibitory effect on osteoclast activity in vivo. In vitro, kistrin potently inhibited bone resorption by isolated rat osteoclasts cultured on slices of bovine bone, and kistrin also inhibited the attachment of 293 cells expressing recombinant human alpha v beta 3 to fibrinogen (IC50 = 1 nM). These results indicate the potential therapeutic use of RGD-containing molecules for hypercalcemia of malignancy or for other disorders associated with bone loss.

Towards a national system for monitoring the quality of hospital-based stroke services.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We sought to evaluate a system for monitoring the quality of hospital-based stroke services that uses routinely collected case fatality data, adjusted for case mix, as well as simple measures of the process of stroke care. METHODS: We compared the process of care and case fatality after stroke between 5 Scottish hospitals (A through E) during 1995-1997. We retrospectively identified 2724 patients with acute stroke using routine discharge data and obtained case mix and process of care data from the medical record. We ascertained case fatality by record linkage and adjusted for case mix using a simple, externally validated regression model. RESULTS: Crude case fatality varied by 21 deaths per 100 admissions between the 5 hospitals. After adjustment, case fatality still differed significantly (P=0.047), with 5 to 7 more deaths per 100 admissions at Hospital A than at Hospitals B through E. There were major shortcomings in the specialization and organization of care, the use of CT scanning, and the completeness of documentation at Hospital A compared with the other hospitals. There were smaller, but clinically important, differences in care between Hospitals B through E but no significant differences in adjusted case fatality. CONCLUSIONS: Once adjusted for important prognostic variables, routinely collected case fatality data might identify hospitals with major shortcomings in the processes of stroke care. More moderate, but still clinically important, variations in stroke care can only be identified by monitoring the process of care directly.

Fractures after stroke: frequency, types, and associations.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke patients may have an increased risk of fractures because of weak bones or an increased risk of falling. Our goal was to estimate the frequency of fracture after stroke and to identify those at greatest risk. METHODS: This study incorporated 2 complementary strategies: a prospective, single-center, cohort study and an analysis of Scottish routine hospital discharge data. RESULTS: Eighty-eight fractures (30% hip) occurred in 2696 hospital-referred stroke patients. The proportions sustaining any fracture or hip fracture within 2 years were 4% and 1.1%, respectively, 1.4 (95% CI, 0.92 to 2.07) times the rate of hip fracture in the general population (ie, observed number divided by expected number or standardized morbidity ratio). Female sex, older age, low abbreviated mental test score, and prestroke dependence were associated with an increased hip fracture rate. Routine data identified 129 935 acute stroke patients admitted to Scottish hospitals. During 363 447 patient-years, 4528 patients had hip fractures, 2.0% had fractures by 1 year, and 10.6% had fractures by 10 years. This is 1.7 times the rate of hip fracture in the general population and 2.3 times that in patients with myocardial infarction. Older patients predictably had the highest rate of poststroke hip fractures but a lower standardized morbidity ratio than younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Fractures after stroke are probably frequent and serious enough to justify the development of preventive strategies, but the modest event rate would mean that randomized, controlled trials to test these strategies specifically in stroke patients would need to enroll thousands of patients.

Performance of a statistical model to predict stroke outcome in the context of a large, simple, randomized, controlled trial of feeding.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Statistical models to predict the outcome of stroke patients have several uses. Their utility depends on their predictive accuracy in patients other than those on whom they were developed (ie, external validity). We sought to test the external validity of some recently described models in patients enrolled in the FOOD (Feed Or Ordinary Diet) trial: a large randomized trial evaluating feeding policies in patients with stroke. METHODS: The predictive variables were collected during a telephone call to randomize the patient a median of 5 days after stroke onset. Patients were followed up 6 months later to establish their survival, functional status, and residence. Charts were plotted to demonstrate the discrimination and calibration of the models. RESULTS: The models performed well in the first 2955 patients enrolled and followed up in the FOOD trial. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves varied between 0.78 and 0.81 (with 0.5 indicating no discrimination and 1.0 indicating perfect discrimination). The discrimination was marginally better for patients enrolled within the first day of stroke than later. The models tended to provide rather pessimistic predictions in all groups except those predicted to have a high likelihood of surviving free of dependency. CONCLUSIONS: As one might predict, the discriminatory power in the selected cohort of trial patients was marginally less good than in previously studied unselected cohorts used to test their external validity. These models provide a well-tested tool for stratification in trials, comparing outcomes in different cohorts and examining the additional predictive power of novel factors.

Negative attitudes among short-term stroke survivors predict worse long-term survival.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Patients respond to serious illness in different ways. We wished to determine whether different attitudes toward illness are associated with survival after stroke. METHODS: Three hundred seventy-two stroke patients were identified and medically assessed as part of a randomized trial to evaluate a stroke family care worker. They had all survived 6 months from randomization. A research psychologist visited each patient and administered the Mental Adjustment to Stroke Scale (a self-rated attitude scale based on the Mental Adjustment to Cancer Scale). Disability and dependence (Barthel Index, modified Rankin Scale) and mood (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, General Health Questionnaire 30) were also assessed. Patients were followed up in 1998 (3 to 5 years after the initial stroke) to establish their survival. We modeled the relationship between Mental Adjustment to Stroke scores and survival, adjusting for other factors associated with stroke survival. RESULTS: Eighty-two patients (22%) died within 3 years. After adjustment for other significant factors, fatalism and helplessness/hopelessness were both associated with decreased survival (P=0.03 and 0.04, respectively), but fighting spirit, anxious preoccupation, and denial/avoidance were not. Mood was not associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: Patients' attitudes toward their illness seem to be associated with survival after stroke. Patients who feel that there is nothing they can do to help themselves 6 months after a stroke have a shorter survival. These findings need to be confirmed and any causal relationship between attitude and survival further explored in a randomized controlled trial to "improve" the attitude of stroke patients toward their illness.

Is breakdown of the blood-brain barrier responsible for lacunar stroke, leukoaraiosis, and dementia?

BACKGROUND: The pathogenesis of and relationship between small deep (lacunar) infarcts, cerebral white matter disease (leukoaraiosis or white matter hyperintensities), and progressive cognitive impairment or dementia are much debated. SUMMARY OF COMMENT: We hypothesize that cerebral small-vessel endothelial (ie, blood-brain barrier) dysfunction, with leakage of plasma components into the vessel wall and surrounding brain tissue leading to neuronal damage, may contribute to the development of 3 overlapping and disabling cerebrovascular conditions: lacunar stroke, leukoaraiosis, and dementia. This hypothesis could explain the link between ischemic cerebral small-vessel disease and several apparently clinically distinct dementia syndromes. This hypothesis is supported by pathological, epidemiological, and experimental studies in lacunar stroke and leukoaraiosis and observations on the blood-brain barrier with MRI. We suspect that the potential significance of blood-brain barrier failure as a pathogenetic step linking vascular disease with common, disabling brain diseases of insidious onset has been overlooked. For example, lipohyalinosis, which has a pathological appearance of uncertain origin and is possibly responsible for some discrete lacunar infarcts, may be one end of a clinical spectrum of illness manifested by blood-brain barrier failure. CONCLUSIONS: Proof that blood-brain barrier failure is key to these conditions could provide a target for new treatments to reduce the effects of vascular disease on the brain and prevent cognitive decline and dementia.