Heat in the southeastern United States: Characteristics, trends, and potential health impact.

High summer temperatures in extratropical areas have an impact on the public's health, mainly through heat stress, high air pollution concentrations, and the transmission of tropical diseases. The purpose of this study is to examine the current characteristics of heat events and future projections of summer apparent temperature (AT)-and associated health concerns-throughout the southeastern United States. Synoptic climatology was used to assess the atmospheric characteristics of extreme heat days (EHDs) from 1979-2015. Ozone concentrations also were examined during EHDs. Trends in summer-season AT over the 37-year period and correlations between AT and atmospheric circulation were determined. Mid-century estimates of summer AT were calculated using downscaled data from an ensemble of global climate models. EHDs throughout the Southeast were characterized by ridging and anticyclones over the Southeast and the presence of moist tropical air masses. Exceedingly high ozone concentrations occurred on EHDs in the Atlanta area and throughout central North Carolina. While summer ATs did not increase significantly from 1979-2015, summer ATs are projected to increase substantially by mid-century, with most the Southeast having ATs similar to that of present-day southern Florida (i.e., a tropical climate). High ozone concentrations should continue to occur during future heat events. Large urban areas are expected to be the most affected by the future warming, resulting from intensifying and expanding urban heat islands, a large increase in heat-vulnerable populations, and climate conditions that will be highly suitable for tropical-disease transmission by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This nexus of vulnerability creates the potential for heat-related morbidity and mortality, as well as the appearance of disease not previously seen in the region. These effects can be attenuated by policies that reduce urban heat (e.g., cool roofs and green roofs) and that improve infrastructure (e.g. emergency services, conditioned space).

A Pilot Study to Examine Exposure to Residential Radon in Under-Sampled Census Tracts of DeKalb County, Georgia, in 2015.

While DeKalb County, Georgia, offers free radon screening for all eligible residents, portions of the county remain relatively under-sampled. This pilot study focused on 10% of the census tracts in the county with the lowest proportion of radon testing; most were in southern DeKalb County. In total, 217 households were recruited and homes were tested for indoor radon concentrations on the lowest livable floor over an eight-week period from March-May 2015. Tract-level characteristics were examined to understand the differences in socio-demographic and economic factors between the pilot study area and the rest of the county. The pilot study tracts had a higher proportion of African Americans compared to the rest of DeKalb County (82% versus 47%). Radon was detected above 11.1 Bq/m³ (0.3 pCi/L) in 73% of the indoor samples and 4% of samples were above 148 Bq/m³ (4 pCi/L). Having a basement was the strongest predictive factor for detectable and hazardous levels of radon. Radon screening can identify problems and spur homeowners to remediate but more research should be done to identify why screening rates vary across the county and how that varies with radon levels in homes to reduce radon exposure.

Perceptions of risk in communities near parks in an African biodiversity hotspot.

Understanding conservation and livelihood threats in park landscapes is important to informing conservation policy. To identify threats, we examined perceived risks of residents living near three national parks in Uganda. We used cross-sectional household data to document, rank, and measure severity of perceived risks. Three risk categories, grouped into protected area, climate, and health, were cited by 80 % of respondents and received the highest severity scores. Elevation, proximity to the park, local forest loss, recent population change, and measures of poverty were the most important variables in predicting whether or not an individual identified these risks as the most or second most severe risk. Health issues were cited throughout the landscape, while problems attributed to climate (mainly insufficient rainfall) were reported to be most severe farther from the park. Increased population density was associated with increased perceived risk of health challenges, but decreased perceived risks attributed to the park and climate. Participatory risk mapping provides the opportunity to make standardized comparisons across sites, to help identify commonalities and differences, as a first step to examining the degree to which conservation management might address some of these local challenges and where mitigation techniques might be transferable between different sites or conflict scenarios.

A critical examination of ozone mapping from a spatial-scale perspective.

Following the establishment of point measurements of ground-level ozone concentrations have been attempts by many researchers to develop ozone surfaces. This paper offers a critique of ozone-mapping endeavors, while also empirically exploring the operational scale of ground-level ozone. The following issues are discussed: aspects of spatial scale; the spatial complexity of ground-level ozone concentrations; and the problems of previous attempts at ozone mapping. Most ozone-mapping studies are beset with at least one of the following core problems: spatial-scale violations; an improper evaluation of surfaces; inaccurate surfaces; and the inappropriate use of surfaces in certain analyses. The major recommendations to researchers are to acknowledge spatial scale (especially operational scale), understand the prerequisites of surface-generating techniques, and to evaluate the resultant ozone surface properly.

Predictive mapping of air pollution involving sparse spatial observations.

A limited number of sample points greatly reduces the availability of appropriate spatial interpolation methods. This is a common problem when one attempts to accurately predict air pollution levels across a metropolitan area. Using ground-level ozone concentrations in the Tucson, Arizona, region as an example, this paper discusses the above problem and its solution, which involves the use of linear regression. A large range of temporal variability is used to compensate for sparse spatial observations (i.e. few ozone monitors). Gridded estimates of emissions of ozone precursor chemicals, which are developed, stored, and manipulated within a geographic information system, are the core predictor variables in multiple linear regression models. Cross-validation of the pooled models reveals an overall R2 of 0.90 and approximately 7% error. Composite ozone maps predict that the highest ozone concentrations occur in a monitor-less area on the eastern edge of Tucson. The maps also reveal the need for ozone monitors in industrialized areas and in rural, forested areas.

Remote assessment of forest health in southern Arizona, USA: evidence for ozone-induced foliar injury.

This paper examines possible ozone-induced foliar injury to ponderosa pine areas in the Rincon Mountains of southern Arizona from 1972 to 1992. Spatiotemporal differences in a satellite-derived vegetation index (VI) are examined with respect to antecedent moisture conditions, temporal variations in ozone exposure levels, and measured foliar injury values from 1985. Seasonal ozone exposure levels (SUM60 and W126) increased from 1982 to 1998 and were significantly correlated (r = 0.49 and 0.53, alpha = 0.05) with annual population totals in the Tucson area. Extensive masking of satellite images from 1972, 1986, and 1992 resulted in two optimal change detection areas, with one site, TVWMica, exposed mostly to the Tucson air pollution plume, while the other site, EMica, was more protected from Tucson-derived pollution. An overall increase in VI from 1972 to 1992 at both sites appears to have been caused by an increase in moisture availability. Larger foliar injury values in 1985 were associated with a smaller increase in VI (i.e., a smaller increase in green leaf biomass) from 1972 to 1986. From 1972 to 1986 and from 1986 to 1992, VI values at TV/WMica increased at a slower rate compared to those at EMica. The reduced increase in "green-up" may have been caused partially by ozone-induced foliar injury and resulting decreases in green leaf biomass. However, these spatial differences in VI values may have also been caused by a number of other factors. Results nevertheless reveal the strong possibility of distinct, topographically based, spatial variations in ozone-induced foliar injury within the Rincons.