Physical constraints on thermoregulation and flight drive morphological evolution in bats.

Body size and shape fundamentally determine organismal energy requirements by modulating heat and mass exchange with the environment and the costs of locomotion, thermoregulation, and maintenance. Ecologists have long used the physical linkage between morphology and energy balance to explain why the body size and shape of many organisms vary across climatic gradients, e.g., why larger endotherms are more common in colder regions. However, few modeling exercises have aimed at investigating this link from first principles. Body size evolution in bats contrasts with the patterns observed in other endotherms, probably because physical constraints on flight limit morphological adaptations. Here, we develop a biophysical model based on heat transfer and aerodynamic principles to investigate energy constraints on morphological evolution in bats. Our biophysical model predicts that the energy costs of thermoregulation and flight, respectively, impose upper and lower limits on the relationship of wing surface area to body mass (S-MR), giving rise to an optimal S-MR at which both energy costs are minimized. A comparative analysis of 278 species of bats supports the model's prediction that S-MR evolves toward an optimal shape and that the strength of selection is higher among species experiencing greater energy demands for thermoregulation in cold climates. Our study suggests that energy costs modulate the mode of morphological evolution in bats­hence shedding light on a long-standing debate over bats' conformity to ecogeographical patterns observed in other mammals­and offers a procedure for investigating complex macroecological patterns from first principles.

Large-scale Degradation of the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin.

The Tocantins-Araguaia Basin is one of the largest river systems in South America, located entirely within Brazilian territory. In the last decades, capital-concentrating activities such as agribusiness, mining, and hydropower promoted extensive changes in land cover, hydrology, and environmental conditions. These changes are jeopardizing the basin's biodiversity and ecosystem services. Threats are escalating as poor environmental policies continue to be formulated, such as environmentally unsustainable hydropower plants, large-scale agriculture for commodity production, and aquaculture with non-native fish. If the current model persists, it will deepen the environmental crisis in the basin, compromising broad conservation goals and social development in the long term. Better policies will require thought and planning to minimize growing threats and ensure the basin's sustainability for future generations.

Complete chloroplast genome sequence of Caryocar brasiliense Camb. (Caryocaraceae) and comparative analysis brings new insights into the plastome evolution of Malpighiales.

Caryocar brasiliense (Caryocaraceae) is a Neotropical tree species widely distributed in Brazilian Savannas. This species is very popular in central Brazil mainly by the use of its fruits in the local cuisine, and indeed it is one of the candidates, among Brazilian native plants, for fast track incorporation into cropping systems. Here we sequenced the complete chloroplast genome of C. brasiliense and used the data to access its genomic resources using high-throughput sequencing. The chloroplast exhibits a genome length of 165,793 bp and the typical angiosperm quadripartite structure with two copies of an inverted repeat sequence (IRa and IRb) of 34,902 bp each, separating a small single copy (SSC) region of 11,852 bp and a large single copy (LSC) region of 84,137 bp. The annotation analysis identified 136 genes being 87 protein-coding, eight rRNA and 37 tRNA genes. We identified 49 repetitive DNA elements and 85 microsatellites. A bayesian phylogenetic analysis helped to understand previously unresolved relationships in Malpighiales, placing Caryocaraceae as a separated group in the order, with high supported nodes. This study synthetizes valuable information for further studies allowing a better understanding of evolutionary patterns in the group and providing resources for future breeding programs.

Island Rule, quantitative genetics and brain-body size evolution in Homo floresiensis.

Colonization of islands often activate a complex chain of adaptive events that, over a relatively short evolutionary time, may drive strong shifts in body size, a pattern known as the Island Rule. It is arguably difficult to perform a direct analysis of the natural selection forces behind such a change in body size. Here, we used quantitative evolutionary genetic models, coupled with simulations and pattern-oriented modelling, to analyse the evolution of brain and body size in Homo floresiensis, a diminutive hominin species that appeared around 700 kya and survived up to relatively recent times (60-90 kya) on Flores Island, Indonesia. The hypothesis of neutral evolution was rejected in 97% of the simulations, and estimated selection gradients are within the range found in living natural populations. We showed that insularity may have triggered slightly different evolutionary trajectories for body and brain size, which means explaining the exceedingly small cranial volume of H. floresiensis requires additional selective forces acting on brain size alone. Our analyses also support previous conclusions that H. floresiensis may be most likely derived from an early Indonesian H. erectus, which is coherent with currently accepted biogeographical scenario for Homo expansion out of Africa.

Ecological opportunities, habitat, and past climatic fluctuations influenced the diversification of modern turtles.

Habitat may be viewed as an important life history component potentially related to diversification patterns. However, differences in diversification rates between aquatic and terrestrial realms are still poorly explored. Testudines is a group distributed worldwide that lives in aquatic and terrestrial environments, but until now no-one has evaluated the diversification history of the group as a whole. We aim here to investigate the diversification history of turtles and to test if habitat influenced speciation rate in these animals. We reconstructed the phylogeny of the modern species of chelonians and estimated node divergence dates using molecular markers and a Bayesian approach. Then, we used Bayesian Analyses of Macroevolutionary Mixtures to evaluate the diversification history of turtles and evaluate the effect of habitat on this pattern. Our reconstructed phylogeny covered 300 species (87% of the total diversity of the group). We found that the emydid subfamily Deirochelyinae, which forms the turtle hotspot in south-eastern United States, had an increase in its speciation rate, and that Galapagos tortoises had similar increases. Current speciation rates are lower in terrestrial turtles, contradicting studies supporting the idea terrestrial animals diversify more than aquatic species. Our results suggest that habitat, ecological opportunities, island invasions, and climatic factors are important drivers of diversification in modern turtles and reinforce the importance of habitat as a diversification driver.

Geographically weighted regression as a generalized Wombling to detect barriers to gene flow.

Barriers to gene flow play an important role in structuring populations, especially in human-modified landscapes, and several methods have been proposed to detect such barriers. However, most applications of these methods require a relative large number of individuals or populations distributed in space, connected by vertices from Delaunay or Gabriel networks. Here we show, using both simulated and empirical data, a new application of geographically weighted regression (GWR) to detect such barriers, modeling the genetic variation as a "local" linear function of geographic coordinates (latitude and longitude). In the GWR, standard regression statistics, such as R(2) and slopes, are estimated for each sampling unit and thus are mapped. Peaks in these local statistics are then expected close to the barriers if genetic discontinuities exist, capturing a higher rate of population differentiation among neighboring populations. Isolation-by-Distance simulations on a longitudinally warped lattice revealed that higher local slopes from GWR coincide with the barrier detected with Monmonier algorithm. Even with a relatively small effect of the barrier, the power of local GWR in detecting the east-west barriers was higher than 95 %. We also analyzed empirical data of genetic differentiation among tree populations of Dipteryx alata and Eugenia dysenterica Brazilian Cerrado. GWR was applied to the principal coordinate of the pairwise FST matrix based on microsatellite loci. In both simulated and empirical data, the GWR results were consistent with discontinuities detected by Monmonier algorithm, as well as with previous explanations for the spatial patterns of genetic differentiation for the two species. Our analyses reveal how this new application of GWR can viewed as a generalized Wombling in a continuous space and be a useful approach to detect barriers and discontinuities to gene flow.

Differential effects of temperature change and human impact on European Late Quaternary mammalian extinctions.

Species that inhabited Europe during the Late Quaternary were impacted by temperature changes and early humans, resulting in the disappearance of half of the European large mammals. However, quantifying the relative importance that each factor had in the extinction risk of species has been challenging, mostly due to the spatio-temporal biases of fossil records, which complicate the calibration of realistic and accurate ecological niche modeling. Here, we overcome this problem by using ecotypes, and not real species, to run our models. We created 40 ecotypes with different temperature requirements (mean temperature from -20 °C to 25 °C and temperature range from 10 °C to 40 °C) and used them to quantify the effect of climate change and human impact. Our results show that cold-adapted ecotypes would have been highly affected by past temperature changes in Europe, whereas temperate and warm-adapted ecotypes would have been positively affected by temperature change. Human impact affected all ecotypes negatively, and temperate ecotypes suffered the greatest impacts. Based on these results, the extinction of cold-adapted species like Mammuthus primigenius may be related to temperature change, while the extinction of temperate species, like Crocuta crocuta, may be related to human impact. Our results suggest that temperature change and human impact affected different ecotypes in distinct ways, and that the interaction of both impacts may have shaped species extinctions in Europe.

Phylogenetic analysis in Myrcia section Aulomyrcia and inferences on plant diversity in the Atlantic rainforest.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Myrcia section Aulomyrcia includes ∼120 species that are endemic to the Neotropics and disjunctly distributed in the moist Amazon and Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. This paper presents the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group and this phylogeny is used as a basis to evaluate recent classification systems and to test alternative hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. METHODS: Fifty-three taxa were sampled out of the 120 species currently recognized, plus 40 outgroup taxa, for one nuclear marker (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rpS16 and ndhF). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Additionally, a likelihood approach, 'geographic state speciation and extinction', was used to estimate region- dependent rates of speciation, extinction and dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable areas (refugia) and unstable areas. KEY RESULTS: Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Myrcia and Marlierea are polyphyletic, and the internal groupings recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Amazonian and north-eastern species and between north-eastern and south-eastern species. Lower extinction rates within glacial refugia suggest that these areas were important in maintaining diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important ecological questions for Myrcia s.l. within an evolutionary context, and supports the need to unite taxonomically the two traditional genera Myrcia and Marlierea in an expanded Myrcia s.l. Furthermore, this study offers valuable insights into the diversification of plant species in the highly impacted Atlantic forest of South America; evidence is presented that the lowest extinction rates are found inside refugia and that range expansion from unstable areas contributes to the highest levels of plant diversity in the Bahian refugium.

Conservation biogeography of the Cerrado's wild edible plants under climate change: Linking biotic stability with agricultural expansion.

UNLABELLED: REMISE OF THE STUDY: Wild edible plants (WEPs) have an important cultural and economic role in human population worldwide. Human impacts are quickly converting natural habitats in agricultural, cattle ranch, and urbanized lands, putting native species on peril of risk of extinction, including some WEPs. Moreover, global climate changes also can pose another threat to species persistency. Here, we established conservation priorities for the Cerrado, a neotropical region in South America with high levels of plant endemism and vulnerability, aiming to assure long-term persistency of 16 most important WEPs. We evaluated these conservation priorities using a conservation biogeography framework using ecological patterns and process at a biogeographical scale to deal with species conservation features. METHODS: We built ecological niche models for 16 WEPs from Cerrado in the neotropics using climate models for preindustrial, past (Last Glacial Maximum) and future (year 2080) time periods to establish climatically stable areas through time, finding refugias for these WEPs. We used a spatial prioritization algorithm based on the spatial pattern of irreplaceability across the neotropics, aiming to ensure the persistence of at least 25% of range size in climatically stable areas for each WEP, using agricultural models as constraints. KEY RESULTS: The Southeast Cerrado was the most biotically stable and irreplaceable region for the WEPs compared with other areas across the neotropics. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings strongly suggest that the Southeast Cerrado should be considered a conservation priority, with new protected areas to be sustainably managed and restored, to guarantee the supply of cultural and ecosystem services provided from the Cerrado's WEPs.

Multifaceted diversity-area relationships reveal global hotspots of mammalian species, trait and lineage diversity.

AIM: To define biome-scale hotspots of phylogenetic and functional mammalian biodiversity (PD and FD, respectively) and compare them to 'classical' hotspots based on species richness (SR) only. LOCATION: Global. METHODS: SR, PD & FD were computed for 782 terrestrial ecoregions using distribution ranges of 4616 mammalian species. We used a set of comprehensive diversity indices unified by a recent framework that incorporates the species relative coverage in each ecoregion. We build large-scale multifaceted diversity-area relationships to rank ecoregions according to their levels of biodiversity while accounting for the effect of area on each diversity facet. Finally we defined hotspots as the top-ranked ecoregions. RESULTS: While ignoring species relative coverage led to a relative good congruence between biome top ranked SR, PD and FD hotspots, ecoregions harboring a rich and abundantly represented evolutionary history and functional diversity did not match with top ranked ecoregions defined by species richness. More importantly PD and FD hotspots showed important spatial mismatches. We also found that FD and PD generally reached their maximum values faster than species richness as a function of area. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: The fact that PD/FD reach faster their maximal value than SR may suggest that the two former facets might be less vulnerable to habitat loss than the latter. While this point is expected, it is the first time that it is quantified at global scale and should have important consequences in conservation. Incorporating species relative coverage into the delineation of multifaceted hotspots of diversity lead to weak congruence between SR, PD and FD hotspots. This means that maximizing species number may fail at preserving those nodes (in the phylogenetic or functional tree) that are relatively abundant in the ecoregion. As a consequence it may be of prime importance to adopt a multifaceted biodiversity perspective to inform conservation strategies at global scale.

A new eigenfunction spatial analysis describing population genetic structure.

Several methods of spatial analyses have been proposed to infer the relative importance of evolutionary processes on genetic population structure. Here we show how a new eigenfunction spatial analysis can be used to model spatial patterns in genetic data. Considering a sample of n local populations, the method starts by modeling the response variable (allele frequencies or phenotypic variation) against the eigenvectors sequentially extracted from a geographic distance matrix (n × n). The relationship between the coefficient of determination (R(2)) of the models and the cumulative eigenvalues, which we named the spatial signal-representation (SSR) curve, can be more efficient than Moran's I correlograms in describing different patterns. The SSR curve was also applied to simulated data (under distinct scenarios of population differentiation) and to analyze spatial patterns in alleles from microsatellite data for 25 local populations of Dipteryx alata, a tree species endemic to the Brazilian Cerrado. The SSR curves are consistent with previous phylogeographical patterns of the species, revealing combined effects of isolation-by-distance and range expansion. Our analyses demonstrate that the SSR curve is a useful exploratory tool for describing spatial patterns of genetic variability and for selecting spatial eigenvectors for models aiming to explain spatial responses to environmental variables and landscape features.

Geographical patterns of turnover and nestedness-resultant components of allelic diversity among populations.

The analysis of geographical patterns in population divergence has always been a powerful way to infer microevolutionary processes involved in population differentiation, and several approaches have been used to investigate such patterns. Most frequently, multivariate spatial patterns of population differentiation are analyzed by computing pairwise genetic distances or F(ST) (or related statistics, such as ϕ(ST) from AMOVA), which are then correlated with geographical distances or landscape features. However, when calculating distances, especially based on presence-absence of alleles in local populations, there would be a confounding effect of allelic richness differences in the population differentiation. Moreover, the relative magnitude of these components and their spatial patterns can help identifying microevolutionary processes driving population differentiation. Here we show how recent methodological advances in ecological community analyses that allows partitioning dissimilarity into turnover (turnover) and richness differences, or nestedness-resultant dissimilarity, can be applied to allelic variation data, using an endemic Cerrado tree (Dipteryx alata) as a case study. Individuals from 15 local populations were genotyped for eight microsatellite loci, and pairwise dissimilarities were computed based on presence-absence of alleles. The turnover of alleles among populations represented 69 % of variation in dissimilarity, but only the richness difference component shows a clear spatial structure, appearing as a westward decrease of allelic richness. We show that decoupling richness difference and turnover components of allelic variation reveals more clearly how similarity among populations reflects geographical patterns in allelic diversity that can be interpreted in respect to historical range expansion in the species.

Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil.

We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guidelines for evidence-based policymaking. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings - school, home, work, and community, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening, and also estimate the number of hospitalization and deaths averted by the implementation of contact tracing. Reopening schools results in a non-linear increase in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects in reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. While contact tracing strategies prevent new infections within school environments, they alone are not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission.

Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in a context of Gamma variant predominance in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Brazil experienced moments of collapse in its health system throughout 2021, driven by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) combined with an inefficient initial vaccination strategy against Covid-19. OBJECTIVES: To support decision-makers in formulating COVID-19 immunization policy in the context of limited vaccine availability and evolving variants over time, we evaluate optimal strategies for Covid-19 vaccination in Brazil in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out during Gamma variant predominance. METHODS: Using a discrete-time epidemic model we estimate Covid-19 deaths averted, considering the currently Covid-19 vaccine products and doses available in Brazil; vaccine coverage by target population; and vaccine effectiveness estimates. We evaluated a 5-month time horizon, from early August to the end of December 2021. Optimal vaccination strategies compared the outcomes in terms of averted deaths when varying dose intervals from 8 to 12 weeks, and choosing the minimum coverage levels per age group required prior to expanding vaccination to younger target populations. We also estimated dose availability required over time to allow the implementation of optimal strategies. RESULTS: To maximize the number of averted deaths, vaccine coverage of at least 80 % should be reached in older age groups before starting vaccination into subsequent younger age groups. When evaluating varying dose intervals for AZD1222, reducing the dose interval from 12 to 8 weeks for the primary schedule would result in fewer COVID-19 deaths, but this can only be implemented if accompanied by an increase in vaccine supply of at least 50 % over the coming six-months in Brazil. CONCLUSION: Covid-19 immunization strategies should be tailored to local vaccine product availability and supply over time, circulating variants of concern, and vaccine coverage in target population groups. Modelling can provide valuable and timely evidence to support the implementation of vaccination strategies considering the local context, yet following international and regional technical evidence-based guidance.

A geographical genetics framework for inferring homing reproductive behavior in fishes.

One of the most intriguing patterns of migration and gene flow that affects genetic structure is the reproductive homing behavior of fishes, wherein the adults return to the areas in which they were spawned. Here we reviewed the literature on homing behavior in fish and propose an analytical framework for testing hypotheses regarding this behavior and its effects on the genetic structure of fish in an explicit geographical context, using a geographical genetics toolbox. Although disentangling the many potential causes underlying genetic population structure and unambiguously demonstrating that the homing behavior causes these genetic patterns is difficult, our framework allows the successive testing of homing behavior with increasing levels of complexity based on the following: (1) establishment of population structures among waterheads; (2) patterns of genetic variability throughout the adult migratory pool; (3) analyses of the non-migratory adult pool; and (4) comparisons among successive generations. We expect that the framework presented here will help delineating the appropriate uses of different sampling designs to make inferences regarding homing behavior and illustrate the limits imposed by the interpretation of different types of genetic data. More importantly, we hope this framework enables researchers to understand how a particular dataset can be utilized in a broader context as an ongoing part of a larger research program and thus guide future research by developing better and more integrated sampling designs.

Ecological and evolutionary factors in dental morphological diversification among modern human populations from southern South America.

The knowledge of processes involved in morphological variation requires the integrated analysis of evolutionary and ecological factors. Here, we investigate the factors responsible for dental variation among human populations from southern South America. The aim of this work is to test the correspondence of dental size and shape variation with geographical, molecular (i.e. mtDNA) and ecological (i.e. climate, diet and food preparation) variables employing comparative phylogenetic methods, which have not previously been extensively applied at a within-species level. The results of the Procrustes analysis show a significant association of shape variables with molecular distance and geography, whereas dental size is not associated with molecular or geographical distances among groups. Phylogenetic generalized least-squares analysis, which takes into account the evolutionary autocorrelation among populations, shows a significant relationship between dental size variation and diet, while temperature and pottery do not correspond with dental size or shape. Specifically, groups with diets rich in carbohydrates, as well as the maritime hunter-gatherers, have the smallest teeth. In summary, our results support ecological factors as the dominant factor on dental size diversification in this region, while evolutionary relationships account for variation in dental shape.

Deviations from predictions of the metabolic theory of ecology can be explained by violations of assumptions.

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) is based on models derived from the first principles of thermodynamics and biochemical kinetics. The MTE predicts that the relationship between temperature and species richness of ectotherms should show a specific slope. Testing the validity of this model, however, depends on whether empirical data do not violate assumptions and are obtained within contour conditions. When dealing with richness gradients, the MTE must be empirically tested only for ectothermic organisms at high organization levels and when their body size as well as abundance does not vary with temperature gradients. Here we evaluate whether the magnitude of the deviations in slope expected from the MTE to empirical data for New World amphibians is due to the violations of model assumptions and to lack of generality due to restricting contour conditions. We found that the MTE correctly predicted biodiversity patterns only at higher levels of organization and when assumptions of the basic model were not violated. Approximately 60% of the deviations from the MTE-predicted slope across amphibian families were due to violations of the model assumptions. The hypothesis that richness patterns are a function of environmental temperature is too restrictive and does not take complex environmental and ecological processes into account. However, our results suggest that it may be possible to obtain multiple derivations of the MTE equation if idiosyncrasies in spatial and biological/ecological issues that are essential to understanding biodiversity patterns are considered.

Global richness patterns of venomous snakes reveal contrasting influences of ecology and history in two different clades.

Recent studies addressing broad-scale species richness gradients have proposed two main primary drivers: contemporary climate and evolutionary processes (differential balance between speciation and extinction). Here, we analyze the global richness patterns of two venomous snake clades, Viperidae and Elapidae. We used ordinary least squares multiple regression (OLS) and partial regression analysis to investigate to what extent actual evapotranspiration (AET; summarizing current environmental conditions) and biogeographical regions (representing evolutionary effects) were associated with species richness. For viperids, AET explained 45.6% of the variance in richness whereas the effect of this variable for elapids was almost null (0.5%). On the other hand, biogeographic regions were the best predictors of elapid richness (56.5%), against its relatively small effect (25.9%) in viperid richness. Partial regressions also revealed similar patterns for independent effects of climate and history in both clades. However, the independent historical effect in Elapidae decreased from 45.2 to 17.8% when we excluded Australia from the analyses, indicating that the strong historical effect that had emerged for the global richness pattern was reflecting the historical process of elapid radiation into Australia. Even after excluding Australia, the historical signal in elapid richness in the rest of the globe was still significant and much higher than that observed in viperid richness at a global scale (2.7% after controlling for AET effects). Differences in the evolutionary age of these two clades can be invoked to explain these contrasting results, in that viperids probably had more time for diversification, generating richness responses to environmental gradients, whereas the pattern of distribution of elapid richness can be more directly interpreted in an evolutionary context. Moreover, these results show the importance of starting to adopt deconstructive approaches to species richness, since the driving factors of these patterns may vary from group to group according to their evolutionary history.

Modeling body size evolution in Felidae under alternative phylogenetic hypotheses.

The use of phylogenetic comparative methods in ecological research has advanced during the last twenty years, mainly due to accurate phylogenetic reconstructions based on molecular data and computational and statistical advances. We used phylogenetic correlograms and phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) to model body size evolution in 35 worldwide Felidae (Mammalia, Carnivora) species using two alternative phylogenies and published body size data. The purpose was not to contrast the phylogenetic hypotheses but to evaluate how analyses of body size evolution patterns can be affected by the phylogeny used for comparative analyses (CA). Both phylogenies produced a strong phylogenetic pattern, with closely related species having similar body sizes and the similarity decreasing with increasing distances in time. The PVR explained 65% to 67% of body size variation and all Moran's I values for the PVR residuals were non-significant, indicating that both these models explained phylogenetic structures in trait variation. Even though our results did not suggest that any phylogeny can be used for CA with the same power, or that "good" phylogenies are unnecessary for the correct interpretation of the evolutionary dynamics of ecological, biogeographical, physiological or behavioral patterns, it does suggest that developments in CA can, and indeed should, proceed without waiting for perfect and fully resolved phylogenies.