ZIP Code-Level Estimation of Air Quality and Health Risk Due to Particulate Matter Pollution in New York City.

Exposure to PM2.5 is associated with hundreds of premature mortalities every year in New York City (NYC). Current air quality and health impact assessment tools provide county-wide estimates but are inadequate for assessing health benefits at neighborhood scales, especially for evaluating policy options related to energy efficiency or climate goals. We developed a new ZIP Code-Level Air Pollution Policy Assessment (ZAPPA) tool for NYC by integrating two reduced form models─Community Air Quality Tools (C-TOOLS) and the Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA)─that propagate emissions changes to estimate air pollution exposures and health benefits. ZAPPA leverages custom higher resolution inputs for emissions, health incidences, and population. It, then, enables rapid policy evaluation with localized ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA)-level analysis of potential health and monetary benefits stemming from air quality management decisions. We evaluated the modeled 2016 PM2.5 values against observed values at EPA and NYCCAS monitors, finding good model performance (FAC2, 1; NMSE, 0.05). We, then, applied ZAPPA to assess PM2.5 reduction-related health benefits from five illustrative policy scenarios in NYC focused on (1) commercial cooking, (2) residential and commercial building fuel regulations, (3) fleet electrification, (4) congestion pricing in Manhattan, and (5) these four combined as a "citywide sustainable policy implementation" scenario. The citywide scenario estimates an average reduction in PM2.5 of 0.9 µg/m3. This change translates to avoiding 210-475 deaths, 340 asthma emergency department visits, and monetized health benefits worth $2B to $5B annually, with significant variation across NYC's 192 ZCTAs. ZCTA-level assessments can help prioritize interventions in neighborhoods that would see the most health benefits from air pollution reduction. ZAPPA can provide quantitative insights on health and monetary benefits for future sustainability policy development in NYC.

Emission projections for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Section 812 second prospective Clean Air Act cost/benefit analysis.

Section 812 of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to perform periodic, comprehensive analyses of the total costs and total benefits of programs implemented pursuant to the CAAA. The first prospective analysis was completed in 1999. The second prospective analysis was initiated during 2005. The first step in the second prospective analysis was the development of base and projection year emission estimates that will be used to generate benefit estimates of CAAA programs. This paper describes the analysis, methods, and results of the recently completed emission projections. There are several unique features of this analysis. One is the use of consistent economic assumptions from the Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005) projections as the basis for estimating 2010 and 2020 emissions for all sectors. Another is the analysis of the different emissions paths for both with and without CAAA scenarios. Other features of this analysis include being the first EPA analysis that uses the 2002 National Emission Inventory files as the basis for making 48-state emission projections, incorporating control factor files from the Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs) that had completed emission projections at the time the analysis was performed, and modeling the emission benefits of the expected adoption of measures to meet the 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), the Clean Air Visibility Rule, and the PM2.5 NAAQS. This analysis shows that the 1990 CAAA have produced significant reductions in criteria pollutant emissions since 1990 and that these emission reductions are expected to continue through 2020. CAAA provisions have reduced volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by approximately 7 million t/yr by 2000, and are estimated to produce associated VOC emission reductions of 16.7 million t by 2020. Total oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission reductions attributable to the CAAA are 5, 12, and 17 million t in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission benefits during the study period are dominated by electricity-generating unit (EGU) SO2 emission reductions. These EGU emission benefits go from 7.5 million t reduced in 2000 to 15 million t reduced in 2020.

Predicting premature mortality from new power plant development in Virginia.

The authors estimated the number of premature deaths from particulate matter less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) that would result from making 29 proposed fossil fuel power plants in Virginia operational. We used a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency air quality model (Climatological Regional Dispersion model) to calculate changes in ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and Cox proportional hazard modeling to calculate the resulting premature mortality. The model predicted that if all 29 plants were operational, PM2.5 concentrations would rise in 271 counties across 19 states 5 and increased average annual PM2.5 concentrations would result in a rate of 17 deaths per 37,900,026 people aged 30 yr and older (0.45 deaths per million, 95% confidence interval = 0.31, 0.59) per year by the end of 2004, increasing thereafter. Over a 6 yr period, 104 cumulative excess deaths would occur due to operations of these proposed plants. The authors recommend that precautionary principles be considered when policy decisions related to energy production from fossil fuels are made.

Livestock ammonia management and particulate-related health benefits.

Agricultural operations are the largest source of ammonia emissions in the United States and contribute to the formation of ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate, two prevalent forms of fine particulate matter. Researchers have found an association between fine particulate matter and a variety of adverse healths effects, including premature mortality, chronic bronchitis, hospital admissions, and asthma attacks. Management practices that reduce ammonia emissions may decrease adverse health effects, resulting in significant economic benefits. We estimated the impact of a variety of emission controls, including diet optimization, alum, and incorporation of manure into the land. The results suggest that relatively modest management policies can have a significant impact on fine particulate formation in the atmosphere. Because of the heterogeneous nature of particulate matter, a key question is the importance of particulate matter size and composition. To the extent that ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate contribute to adverse health effects, ammonia management may have significant health implications. Our results suggestthat a 10% reduction in livestock ammonia emissions can lead to over $4 billion annually in particulate-related health benefits.