What Is the Impact of Accidentally Transporting Terrestrial Alien Species? A New Life Cycle Impact Assessment Model.

Alien species form one of the main threats to global biodiversity. Although Life Cycle Assessment attempts to holistically assess environmental impacts of products and services across value chains, ecological impacts of the introduction of alien species are so far not assessed in Life Cycle Impact Assessment. Here, we developed country-to-country-specific characterization factors, expressed as the time-integrated potentially disappeared fraction (PDF; regional and global) of native terrestrial species due to alien species introductions per unit of goods transported [kg] between two countries. The characterization factors were generated by analyzing global data on first records of alien species, native species distributions, and their threat status, as well as bilateral trade partnerships from 1870-2019. The resulting characterization factors vary over several orders of magnitude, indicating that impact greatly varies per transportation route and trading partner. We showcase the applicability and relevance of the characterization factors for transporting 1 metric ton of freight to France from China, South Africa, and Madagascar. The results suggest that the introduction of alien species can be more damaging for terrestrial biodiversity as climate change impacts during the international transport of commodities.

Multicompartment Depletion Factors for Water Consumption on a Global Scale.

Balancing human communities' and ecosystems' need for freshwater is one of the major challenges of the 21st century as population growth and improved living conditions put increasing pressure on freshwater resources. While frameworks to assess the environmental impacts of freshwater consumption have been proposed at the regional scale, an operational method to evaluate the consequences of consumption on different compartments of the water system and account for their interdependence is missing at the global scale. Here, we develop depletion factors that simultaneously quantify the effects of water consumption on streamflow, groundwater storage, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration globally. We estimate freshwater availability and water consumption using the output of a global-scale surface water-groundwater model for the period 1960-2000. The resulting depletion factors are provided for 8,664 river basins, representing 93% of the landmass with significant water consumption, i.e., excluding Greenland, Antarctica, deserts, and permanently frozen areas. Our findings show that water consumption leads to the largest water loss in rivers, followed by aquifers and soil, while simultaneously increasing evapotranspiration. Depletion factors vary regionally with ranges of up to four orders of magnitude depending on the annual consumption level, the type of water used, aridity, and water transfers between compartments. Our depletion factors provide valuable insights into the intertwined effects of surface and groundwater consumption on several hydrological variables over a specified period. The developed depletion factors can be integrated into sustainability assessment tools to quantify the ecological impacts of water consumption and help guide sustainable water management strategies, while accounting for the performance limitations of the underlying model.

Climate change mitigation potentials of biofuels produced from perennial crops and natural regrowth on abandoned and degraded cropland in Nordic countries.

Bioenergy expansion is present in most climate change mitigation scenarios. The associated large land use changes have led to concerns on how bioenergy can be sustainably deployed. Promising win-win strategies include the production of perennial bioenergy crops on recently abandoned cropland or on cropland prone to land degradation, as perennial crops typically reduce soil erosion rates. Natural vegetation regrowth is an alternative nature-based solution that can also co-deliver negative emissions and other environmental benefits. In this study, we explore the potential to deploy bioenergy crops in Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark) on abandoned cropland and on cropland threatened by soil erosion and compare the achievable climate change mitigation benefits with natural regrowth. We found 186 thousand hectares (kha) of abandoned cropland and 995 kha of cropland threatened by soil erosion suitable for bioenergy crop cultivation. The primary bioenergy potential in the region is 151 PJ (PJ) per year, corresponding to 67-110 PJ per year of liquid biofuels depending on biorefinery technology. This has a climate change mitigation potential from -6.0 to -17 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MtCO2eq) per year over the first 20 years (equivalent to 14-40% of annual road transport emissions), with high-end estimates relying on bioenergy coupled to carbon capture and storage (BECCS). On the same area, natural regrowth can deliver negative emissions of -10 MtCO2eq per year. Biofuel production outperforms natural regrowth on 46% of abandoned cropland with currently available biorefinery technologies, 83% with improved energy conversion efficiency, and nearly everywhere with BECCS. For willow windbreaks, improved biorefinery technology or BECCS is necessary to ensure the delivery of larger negative emissions than natural regrowth. Biofuel production is preferable to natural regrowth on 16% of croplands threatened by soil erosion with the current biorefinery technology and on 87% of the land area with BECCS. Without BECCS, liquid biofuels achieve larger climate benefits than natural regrowth only when bioenergy yields are high. Underutilized land and land affected by degradation processes are an opportunity for a gradual and more sustainable bioenergy deployment, and local considerations are needed to identify case-specific solutions that can co-deliver multiple environmental benefits.

Modeling Net Land Occupation of Hydropower Reservoirs in Norway for Use in Life Cycle Assessment.

Increasing hydropower electricity production constitutes a unique opportunity to mitigate climate change impacts. However, hydropower electricity production also impacts aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity through freshwater habitat alteration, water quality degradation, and land use and land use change (LULUC). Today, no operational model exists that covers any of these cause-effect pathways within life cycle assessment (LCA). This paper contributes to the assessment of LULUC impacts of hydropower electricity production in Norway in LCA. We quantified the inundated land area associated with 107 hydropower reservoirs with remote sensing data and related it to yearly electricity production. Therewith, we calculated an average net land occupation of 0.027 m2·yr/kWh of Norwegian storage hydropower plants for the life cycle inventory. Further, we calculated an adjusted average land occupation of 0.007 m2·yr/kWh, accounting for an underestimation of water area in the performed maximum likelihood classification. The calculated land occupation values are the basis to support the development of methods for assessing the land occupation impacts of hydropower on biodiversity in LCA at a damage level.

New indicator of habitat functionality reveals high risk of underestimating trade-offs among sustainable development goals: The case of wild reindeer and hydropower.

Although biodiversity is crucial for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), following the current trajectory, we risk failing SDG 15. Using a new indicator quantifying the loss of functional habitat (habitat that is simultaneously suitable and well-connected), we show that the real impact of renewable energy is far larger than previously assumed. Specifically, we estimate that the construction of hydropower reservoirs in south Norway caused a loss of ca. 222 km2 of functional habitat for wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus)-which is far larger than assumed based on land inundation indices (110 km2). Fully mitigating these impacts is challenging: scenario analyses reveal that the measures proposed by societal actors would yield only a fraction of the habitat lost (2-12 km2) and could cause trade-off risks with other SDGs. Using indices of functional connectivity is crucial for environmental impact assessments, as entire ecological networks for several species can be affected far beyond the reservoirs.

Advancing water footprint assessments: Combining the impacts of water pollution and scarcity.

Several water footprint indicators have been developed to curb freshwater stress. Volumetric footprints support water allocation decisions and strive to increase water productivity in all sectors. In contrast, impact-oriented footprints are used to minimize the impacts of water use on human health, ecosystems, and freshwater resources. Efforts to combine both perspectives in a harmonized framework have been undertaken, but common challenges remain, such as pollution and ecosystems impacts modelling. To address these knowledge gaps, we build upon a water footprint assessment framework proposed at conceptual level to expand and operationalize relevant features. We propose two regionalized indicators, namely the water biodiversity footprint and the water resource footprint, that aggregate all impacts from toxic chemicals, nutrients, and water scarcity. The first impact indicator represents the impacts on freshwater ecosystems. The second one models the competition for freshwater resources and its consequences on freshwater availability. As part of the framework, we complement the two indicators with a sustainability assessment representing the levels above which ecological and human freshwater needs are no longer sustained. We test our approach assessing the sustainability of water use in the European Union in 2010. Water stress hampers 15 % of domestic, agricultural and industrial water demand, mainly due to irrigation and pesticide emissions in southern Europe. Moreover, damage to the freshwater ecosystems is widespread and mostly resulting from chemical emissions from industry. Approximately 5 % of the area is exceeding the regional sustainability limits for ecosystems and human water requirements altogether. Concerted efforts from all sectors are needed to reduce the impacts of emissions and water consumption under the sustainability limits. These advances are considered an important step toward the harmonization of volumetric and impact-oriented approaches to achieve consistent and holistic water footprinting as well as contributing to strengthen the policy relevance of water footprint assessments.

Global water consumption impacts on riverine fish species richness in Life Cycle Assessment.

Reduced river discharge and flow regulation are significant threats to freshwater biodiversity. An accurate representation of potential damage of water consumption on freshwater biodiversity is required to quantify and compare the environmental impacts of global value chains. The effect of discharge reduction on fish species richness was previously modeled in life cycle impact assessment, but models were limited by the restricted geographical scope of underlying species-discharge relationships and the small number of species data. Here, we propose a model based on a novel regionalized species-discharge relationship (SDR). Our SDR-based model covers 88 % of the global landmass (2320 river basins worldwide excluding deserts and permanently frozen areas) and is based on a global dataset of 11,450 riverine fish species, simulated river discharge, elevation, and climate zones. We performed 10-fold cross-validation to select the best set of predictors and validated the obtained SDRs based on observed discharge data. Our model performed better than previous SDRs employed in life cycle impact assessment (Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient about 4 times larger). We provide both marginal and average models with their uncertainty ranges for assessing scenarios of small and large-scale water consumption, respectively, and include regional and global species loss. We conducted an illustrative case study to showcase the method's applicability and highlight the differences with the currently used approach. Our models are useful for supporting sustainable water consumption and riverine fish biodiversity conservation decisions. They enable a more specific, reliable, and complete impact assessment by differentiating impacts on regional riverine fish species richness and irreversible global losses, including up-to-date species data, and providing spatially explicit values with high geographical coverage.

More than half of data deficient species predicted to be threatened by extinction.

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is essential for practical and theoretical efforts to protect biodiversity. However, species classified as "Data Deficient" (DD) regularly mislead practitioners due to their uncertain extinction risk. Here we present machine learning-derived probabilities of being threatened by extinction for 7699 DD species, comprising 17% of the entire IUCN spatial datasets. Our predictions suggest that DD species as a group may in fact be more threatened than data-sufficient species. We found that 85% of DD amphibians are likely to be threatened by extinction, as well as more than half of DD species in many other taxonomic groups, such as mammals and reptiles. Consequently, our predictions indicate that, amongst others, the conservation relevance of biodiversity hotspots in South America may be boosted by up to 20% if DD species were acknowledged. The predicted probabilities for DD species are highly variable across taxa and regions, implying current Red List-derived indices and priorities may be biased.

Controlling biodiversity impacts of future global hydropower reservoirs by strategic site selection.

Further reservoir-based hydropower development can contribute to the United Nations' sustainable development goals (SDGs) on affordable and clean energy, and climate action. However, hydropower reservoir operation can lead to biodiversity impacts, thus interfering with the SDGs on clean water and life on land. We combine a high-resolution, location-specific, technical assessment with newly developed life cycle impact assessment models, to assess potential biodiversity impacts of possible future hydropower reservoirs, resulting from land occupation, water consumption and methane emissions. We show that careful selection of hydropower reservoirs has a large potential to limit biodiversity impacts, as for example, 0.3% of the global hydropower potential accounts for 25% of the terrestrial biodiversity impact. Local variations, e.g. species richness, are the dominant explanatory factors of the variance in the quantified biodiversity impact and not the mere amount of water consumed, or land occupied per kWh. The biodiversity impacts are mainly caused by land occupation and water consumption, with methane emissions being much less important. Further, we indicate a trade-off risk between terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity impacts, as due to the weak correlation between terrestrial and aquatic impacts, reservoirs with small aquatic biodiversity impacts tend to have larger terrestrial impacts and vice versa.

Global characterization factors for terrestrial biodiversity impacts of future land inundation in Life Cycle Assessment.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for analyzing and comparing environmental impacts of products throughout their life cycles, facilitating shifts towards more environmentally friendly products. However, LCA does currently not address terrestrial biodiversity impacts related to the conversion of terrestrial habitat into aquatic habitat. This conversion can occur because of sea level rise, establishment of new land-based aquaculture, as well as reservoir expansion or creation. Here, we focus on land occupation and terrestrial biodiversity impacts, while transformation impacts, and habitat gain for aquatic species were beyond the scope of the study. To be able to estimate the regional and global terrestrial biodiversity impacts of future land occupation from terrestrial to aquatic habitat in LCA, we developed new characterization factors (CFs) for 781 terrestrial ecoregions, 5 land cover/use types, and 4 taxonomic groups. The basis for the development of the proposed CFs is the model concept of the currently recommended method for quantifying land use impacts on biodiversity in LCA by the Life Cycle Initiative hosted by United Nations Environmental Program. The global CFs vary between 7.44 E-20 PDF/m2 and 6.25 E-09 PDF/m2, showing that a highly variable terrestrial biodiversity impact of land inundation between land cover/use types, taxonomic groups and ecoregions exists.