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Human humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines exhibit substantial inter-individual variability and have been linked to vaccine efficacy. To elucidate the underlying mechanism behind this variability, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on the anti-spike IgG serostatus of UK Biobank participants who were previously uninfected by SARS-CoV-2 and had received either the first dose (n = 54,066) or the second dose (n = 46,232) of COVID-19 vaccines. Our analysis revealed significant genome-wide associations between the IgG antibody serostatus following the initial vaccine and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II alleles. Specifically, the HLA-DRB1∗13:02 allele (MAF = 4.0%, OR = 0.75, p = 2.34e-16) demonstrated the most statistically significant protective effect against IgG seronegativity. This protective effect was driven by an alteration from arginine (Arg) to glutamic acid (Glu) at position 71 on HLA-DRß1 (p = 1.88e-25), leading to a change in the electrostatic potential of pocket 4 of the peptide binding groove. Notably, the impact of HLA alleles on IgG responses was cell type specific, and we observed a shared genetic predisposition between IgG status and susceptibility/severity of COVID-19. These results were replicated within independent cohorts where IgG serostatus was assayed by two different antibody serology tests. Our findings provide insights into the biological mechanism underlying individual variation in responses to COVID-19 vaccines and highlight the need to consider the influence of constitutive genetics when designing vaccination strategies for optimizing protection and control of infectious disease across diverse populations.
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COVID-19 , Imunoglobulina G , Humanos , Formação de Anticorpos/genética , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , COVID-19/genética , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , VacinaçãoRESUMO
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic1. The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective2, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings3. Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement4,5, we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776-164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44-94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world.
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Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Desinfecção das Mãos/métodos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Quarentena/métodos , Isolamento Social , Viagem/legislação & jurisprudência , COVID-19 , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Medição de Risco , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
Since 2020, clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 and H5N1 viruses have swept through continents, posing serious threats to the world. Through comprehensive analyses of epidemiological, genetic, and bird migration data, we found that the dominant genotype replacement of the H5N8 viruses in 2020 contributed to the H5N1 outbreak in the 2021/2022 wave. The 2020 outbreak of the H5N8 G1 genotype instead of the G0 genotype produced reassortment opportunities and led to the emergence of a new H5N1 virus with G1's HA and MP genes. Despite extensive reassortments in the 2021/2022 wave, the H5N1 virus retained the HA and MP genes, causing a significant outbreak in Europe and North America. Furtherly, through the wild bird migration flyways investigation, we found that the temporal-spatial coincidence between the outbreak of the H5N8 G1 virus and the bird autumn migration may have expanded the H5 viral spread, which may be one of the main drivers of the emergence of the 2020-2022 H5 panzootic.IMPORTANCESince 2020, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 subtype variants of clade 2.3.4.4b have spread across continents, posing unprecedented threats globally. However, the factors promoting the genesis and spread of H5 HPAI viruses remain unclear. Here, we found that the spatiotemporal genotype replacement of H5N8 HPAI viruses contributed to the emergence of the H5N1 variant that caused the 2021/2022 panzootic, and the viral evolution in poultry of Egypt and surrounding area and autumn bird migration from the Russia-Kazakhstan region to Europe are important drivers of the emergence of the 2020-2022 H5 panzootic. These findings provide important targets for early warning and could help control the current and future HPAI epidemics.
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Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1 , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N8 , Influenza Aviária , Animais , Aves , Genótipo , Vírus da Influenza A/fisiologia , Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1/genética , Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1/fisiologia , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N8/genética , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N8/fisiologia , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Aviária/virologia , Filogenia , Aves DomésticasRESUMO
Antibodies specifically bind to antigens and are an essential part of the immune system. Hence, antibodies are powerful tools in research and diagnostics. High-throughput sequencing technologies have promoted comprehensive profiling of the immune repertoire, which has resulted in large amounts of antibody sequences that remain to be further analyzed. In this study, antibodies were downloaded from IMGT/LIGM-DB and Sequence Read Archive databases. Contributing features from antibody heavy chains were formulated as numerical inputs and fed into an ensemble machine learning classifier to classify the antigen specificity of six classes of antibodies, namely anti-HIV-1, anti-influenza virus, anti-pneumococcal polysaccharide, anti-citrullinated protein, anti-tetanus toxoid and anti-hepatitis B virus. The classifier was validated using cross-validation and a testing dataset. The ensemble classifier achieved a macro-average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.9246 from the 10-fold cross-validation, and 0.9264 for the testing dataset. Among the contributing features, the contribution of the complementarity-determining regions was 53.1% and that of framework regions was 46.9%, and the amino acid mutation rates occupied the first and second ranks among the top five contributing features. The classifier and insights provided in this study could promote the mechanistic study, isolation and utilization of potential therapeutic antibodies.
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Sequência de Aminoácidos , Anticorpos/química , Aprendizado de Máquina , Especificidade de Anticorpos , Regiões Determinantes de Complementaridade , Sequenciamento de Nucleotídeos em Larga Escala , Humanos , Curva ROCRESUMO
Circulation of seasonal influenza is the product of complex interplay among multiple drivers, yet characterizing the underlying mechanism remains challenging. Leveraging the diverse seasonality of A(H3N2) virus and abundant climatic space across regions in China, we quantitatively investigated the relative importance of population susceptibility, climatic factors, and antigenic change on the dynamics of influenza A(H3N2) through an integrative modelling framework. Specifically, an absolute humidity driven multiscale transmission model was constructed for the 2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons that were dominated by influenza A(H3N2). We revealed the variable impact of absolute humidity on influenza transmission and differences in the occurring timing and magnitude of antigenic change for those three seasons. Overall, the initial population susceptibility, climatic factors, and antigenic change explained nearly 55% of variations in the dynamics of influenza A(H3N2). Specifically, the additional variation explained by the initial population susceptibility, climatic factors, and antigenic change were at 33%, 26%, and 48%, respectively. The vaccination program alone failed to fully eliminate the summer epidemics of influenza A(H3N2) and non-pharmacological interventions were needed to suppress the summer circulation. The quantitative understanding of the interplay among driving factors on the circulation of influenza A(H3N2) highlights the importance of simultaneous monitoring of fluctuations for related factors, which is crucial for precise and targeted prevention and control of seasonal influenza.
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Epidemias , Influenza Humana , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N2 , Estações do Ano , China/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Monkeypox, caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), was historically confined to West and Central Africa but has now spread globally. Recombination and selection play crucial roles in the evolutionary adaptation of MPXV; however, the evolution of MPXV and its relationship with the recent, ground-breaking monkeypox epidemic remains poorly understood. To gain insights into the evolutionary dynamics of MPXV, comprehensive in silico recombination and selection analyses were conducted based on MPXV whole genome sequence data. Three types of recombination were identified: five ancestor-sharing interspecies recombination events, six specific interspecies recombination events and four intraspecies recombination events. The results highlight the prevalent occurrence of recombination in MPXV, with 73.3% occurring in variable regions of the genome. Selection analysis was performed from three dimensions: proteins around recombination regions, proteins from recombinant ancestors and MPXV branches, and whole-genome gene analysis. Results revealed 2 and 7 proteins under positive selection in the first two dimensions, respectively. These proteins are mainly involved in infection immunity, apoptosis regulation and viral virulence. Whole-genome analysis detected 25 genes under positive selection, mainly associated with immune response and viral regulation. Understanding their evolutionary patterns will help predict and prevent cross-species transmission, zoonotic outbreaks and potential human epidemics.
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Evolução Molecular , Genoma Viral , Monkeypox virus , Mpox , Filogenia , Recombinação Genética , Seleção Genética , Humanos , Monkeypox virus/genética , Monkeypox virus/classificação , Mpox/virologia , Mpox/epidemiologia , Genoma Viral/genética , Adaptação Biológica , AnimaisRESUMO
The H1N1pdm09 virus has been a persistent threat to public health since the 2009 pandemic. Particularly, since the relaxation of COVID-19 pandemic mitigation measures, the influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 have been concurrently prevalent worldwide. To determine the antigenic evolution pattern of H1N1pdm09 and develop preventive countermeasures, we collected influenza sequence data and immunological data to establish a new antigenic evolution analysis framework. A machine learning model (XGBoost, accuracy = 0.86, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.89) was constructed using epitopes, physicochemical properties, receptor binding sites, and glycosylation sites as features to predict the antigenic similarity relationships between influenza strains. An antigenic correlation network was constructed, and the Markov clustering algorithm was used to identify antigenic clusters. Subsequently, the antigenic evolution pattern of H1N1pdm09 was analyzed at the global and regional scales across three continents. We found that H1N1pdm09 evolved into around five antigenic clusters between 2009 and 2023 and that their antigenic evolution trajectories were characterized by cocirculation of multiple clusters, low-level persistence of former dominant clusters, and local heterogeneity of cluster circulations. Furthermore, compared with the seasonal H1N1 virus, the potential cluster-transition determining sites of H1N1pdm09 were restricted to epitopes Sa and Sb. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of machine learning methods for characterizing antigenic evolution of viruses, developed a specific model to rapidly identify H1N1pdm09 antigenic variants, and elucidated their evolutionary patterns. Our findings may provide valuable support for the implementation of effective surveillance strategies and targeted prevention efforts to mitigate the impact of H1N1pdm09.
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Antígenos Virais , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Influenza Humana , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1/genética , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1/imunologia , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Influenza Humana/virologia , Influenza Humana/imunologia , Antígenos Virais/genética , Antígenos Virais/imunologia , Aprendizado de Máquina , Evolução Molecular , Epitopos/genética , Epitopos/imunologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/virologia , COVID-19/imunologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Glicoproteínas de Hemaglutininação de Vírus da Influenza/genética , Glicoproteínas de Hemaglutininação de Vírus da Influenza/imunologia , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/imunologiaRESUMO
The 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly worldwide and was declared a pandemic by the WHO in March 2020. The evolution of SARS-CoV-2, either in its natural reservoir or in the human population, is still unclear, but this knowledge is essential for effective prevention and control. We propose a new framework to systematically identify recombination events, excluding those due to noise and convergent evolution. We found that several recombination events occurred for SARS-CoV-2 before its transfer to humans, including a more recent recombination event in the receptor-binding domain. We also constructed a probabilistic mutation network to explore the diversity and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 after human infection. Clustering results show that the novel coronavirus has diverged into several clusters that cocirculate over time in various regions and that several mutations across the genome are fixed during transmission throughout the human population, including D614G in the S gene and two accompanied mutations in ORF1ab. Together, these findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 experienced a complicated evolution process in the natural environment and point to its continuous adaptation to humans. The new framework proposed in this study can help our understanding of and response to other emerging pathogens.
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Evolução Molecular , Recombinação Genética , SARS-CoV-2/genética , COVID-19/virologia , Humanos , Filogenia , Reprodutibilidade dos TestesRESUMO
H9N2 Avian influenza virus (AIV) is regarded as a principal donor of viral genes through reassortment to co-circulating influenza viruses that can result in zoonotic reassortants. Whether H9N2 virus can maintain sustained evolutionary impact on such reassortants is unclear. Since 2013, avian H7N9 virus had caused five sequential human epidemics in China; the fifth wave in 2016-2017 was by far the largest but the mechanistic explanation behind the scale of infection is not clear. Here, we found that, just prior to the fifth H7N9 virus epidemic, H9N2 viruses had phylogenetically mutated into new sub-clades, changed antigenicity and increased its prevalence in chickens vaccinated with existing H9N2 vaccines. In turn, the new H9N2 virus sub-clades of PB2 and PA genes, housing mammalian adaptive mutations, were reassorted into co-circulating H7N9 virus to create a novel dominant H7N9 virus genotype that was responsible for the fifth H7N9 virus epidemic. H9N2-derived PB2 and PA genes in H7N9 virus conferred enhanced polymerase activity in human cells at 33°C and 37°C, and increased viral replication in the upper and lower respiratory tracts of infected mice which could account for the sharp increase in human cases of H7N9 virus infection in the 2016-2017 epidemic. The role of H9N2 virus in the continual mutation of H7N9 virus highlights the public health significance of H9N2 virus in the generation of variant reassortants of increasing zoonotic potential.IMPORTANCEAvian H9N2 influenza virus, although primarily restricted to chicken populations, is a major threat to human public health by acting as a donor of variant viral genes through reassortment to co-circulating influenza viruses. We established that the high prevalence of evolving H9N2 virus in vaccinated flocks played a key role, as donor of new sub-clade PB2 and PA genes in the generation of a dominant H7N9 virus genotype (G72) with enhanced infectivity in humans during the 2016-2017 N7N9 virus epidemic. Our findings emphasize that the ongoing evolution of prevalent H9N2 virus in chickens is an important source, via reassortment, of mammalian adaptive genes for other influenza virus subtypes. Thus, close monitoring of prevalence and variants of H9N2 virus in chicken flocks is necessary in the detection of zoonotic mutations.
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To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, vaccines have been urgently approved. With their limited availability, it is critical to distribute the vaccines reasonably. We simulated the SARS-CoV-2 transmission for 365 days over four intervention periods: free transmission, structural mitigation, personal mitigation, and vaccination. Sensitivity analyses were performed to obtain robust results. We further evaluated two proposed vaccination allocations, including one-dose-high-coverage and two-doses-low-coverage, when the supply was low. 33.35% (infection rate, 2.68 in 10 million people) and 40.54% (2.36) of confirmed cases could be avoided as the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) adherence rate rose from 50% to 70%. As the vaccination coverage reached 60% and 80%, the total infections could be reduced by 32.72% and 41.19%, compared to the number without vaccination. When the durations of immunity were 90 and 120 days, the infection rates were 2.67 and 2.38. As the asymptomatic infection rate rose from 30% to 50%, the infection rate increased 0.92 (SD, 0.16) times. Conditioned on 70% adherence rate, with the same amount of limited available vaccines, the 20% and 40% vaccination coverage of one-dose-high-coverage, the infection rates were 2.70 and 2.35; corresponding to the two-doses-low-coverage with 10% and 20% vaccination coverage, the infection rates were 3.22 and 2.92. Our results indicated as the duration of immunity prolonged, the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 would be delayed and the scale would be declined. On average, the total infections in two-doses-low-coverage was 1.48 times (SD, 0.24) as high as that in one-dose-high-coverage. It is crucial to encourage people in order to improve vaccination coverage and establish immune barriers. Particularly when the supply is limited, a wiser strategy to prevent SARS-CoV-2 is equally distributing doses to the same number of individuals. Besides vaccination, NPIs are equally critical to the prevention of widespread of SARS-CoV-2.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , VacinaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: A range of strict nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented in many countries to combat the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. These NPIs may also be effective at controlling seasonal influenza virus infections, as influenza viruses have the same transmission path as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of different NPIs on the control of seasonal influenza. METHODS: Data for 14 NPIs implemented in 33 countries and the corresponding influenza virological surveillance data were collected. The influenza suppression index was calculated as the difference between the influenza positivity rate during its period of decline from 2019 to 2020 and during the influenza epidemic seasons in the previous 9 years. A machine learning model was developed using an extreme gradient boosting tree regressor to fit the NPI and influenza suppression index data. The SHapley Additive exPlanations tool was used to characterize the NPIs that suppressed the transmission of influenza. RESULTS: Of all NPIs tested, gathering limitations had the greatest contribution (37.60%) to suppressing influenza transmission during the 2019-2020 influenza season. The three most effective NPIs were gathering limitations, international travel restrictions, and school closures. For these three NPIs, their intensity threshold required to generate an effect were restrictions on the size of gatherings less than 1000 people, ban of travel to all regions or total border closures, and closing only some categories of schools, respectively. There was a strong positive interaction effect between mask-wearing requirements and gathering limitations, whereas merely implementing a mask-wearing requirement, and not other NPIs, diluted the effectiveness of mask-wearing requirements at suppressing influenza transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Gathering limitations, ban of travel to all regions or total border closures, and closing some levels of schools were found to be the most effective NPIs at suppressing influenza transmission. It is recommended that the mask-wearing requirement be combined with gathering limitations and other NPIs. Our findings could facilitate the precise control of future influenza epidemics and other potential pandemics.
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COVID-19 , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Influenza Humana , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Estações do AnoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are vital to reducing transmission risks. However, the relative efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 remains controversial, since social distancing and isolation/quarantine were implemented almost at the same time in China. METHODS: In this study, surveillance data of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in 2018-2020 were used to quantify the relative efficiency of NPIs against COVID-19 in China, since isolation/quarantine was not used for the influenza epidemics. Given that the relative age-dependent susceptibility to influenza and COVID-19 may vary, an age-structured susceptible/infected/recovered model was built to explore the efficiency of social distancing against COVID-19 under different population susceptibility scenarios. RESULTS: The mean effective reproductive number, Rt, of COVID-19 before NPIs was 2.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.02-2.21). By 11 March 2020, the overall reduction in Rt of COVID-19 was 66.1% (95% CI, 60.1-71.2%). In the epidemiological year 2019-20, influenza transmissibility was reduced by 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3-38.2%) compared with transmissibility in epidemiological year 2018-19. Under the observed contact pattern changes in China, social distancing had similar efficiency against COVID-19 in 3 different scenarios. By assuming the same efficiency of social distancing against seasonal influenza and COVID-19 transmission, isolation/quarantine and social distancing could lead to 48.1% (95% CI, 35.4-58.1%) and 34.6% (95% CI, 31.3-38.2%) reductions of the transmissibility of COVID-19, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Though isolation/quarantine is more effective than social distancing, given that the typical basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is 2-3, isolation/quarantine alone could not contain the COVID-19 pandemic effectively in China.
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COVID-19 , Influenza Humana , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Pandemias , Distanciamento Físico , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
MOTIVATION: Newly emerging influenza viruses keep challenging global public health. To evaluate the potential risk of the viruses, it is critical to rapidly determine the phenotypes of the viruses, including the antigenicity, host, virulence and drug resistance. RESULTS: Here, we built FluPhenotype, a one-stop platform to rapidly determinate the phenotypes of the influenza A viruses. The input of FluPhenotype is the complete or partial genomic/protein sequences of the influenza A viruses. The output presents five types of information about the viruses: (i) sequence annotation including the gene and protein names as well as the open reading frames, (ii) potential hosts and human-adaptation-associated amino acid markers, (iii) antigenic and genetic relationships with the vaccine strains of different HA subtypes, (iv) mammalian virulence-related amino acid markers and (v) drug resistance-related amino acid markers. FluPhenotype will be a useful bioinformatic tool for surveillance and early warnings of the newly emerging influenza A viruses. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: It is publicly available from: http://www.computationalbiology.cn : 18888/IVEW. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Humana , Orthomyxoviridae , Sequência de Aminoácidos , Animais , Glicoproteínas de Hemaglutininação de Vírus da Influenza , Humanos , Vírus da Influenza A/genéticaRESUMO
The world is experiencing an ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In attempts to control the pandemic, a range of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) has been implemented worldwide. However, the effect of synchronized NPIs for the control of COVID-19 at temporal and spatial scales has not been well studied. Therefore, a meta-population model that incorporates essential nonlinear processes was constructed to uncover the transmission characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and then assess the effectiveness of synchronized NPIs on COVID-19 dynamics in China. Regional synchronization of NPIs was observed in China, and it was found that a combination of synchronized NPIs (the travel restrictions, the social distancing and the infection isolation) prevented 93.7% of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The use of synchronized NPIs at the time of the Wuhan lockdown may have prevented as much as 38% of SARS-CoV-2 infections, compared with the unsynchronized scenario. The interconnectivity of the epicenter, the implementation time of synchronized NPIs, and the number of regions considered all affected the performance of synchronized NPIs. The results highlight the importance of using synchronized NPIs in high-risk regions for the control of COVID-19 and shed light on effective strategies for future pandemic responses. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-06505-0.
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To suppress the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government has implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Because COVID-19 and influenza have similar means of transmission, NPIs targeting COVID-19 may also affect influenza transmission. In this study, the extent to which NPIs targeting COVID-19 have affected seasonal influenza transmission was explored. Indicators of seasonal influenza activity in the epidemiological year 2019-2020 were compared with those in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019. The incidence rate of seasonal influenza reduced by 64% in 2019-2020 (P < .001). These findings suggest that NPIs aimed at controlling COVID-19 significantly reduced seasonal influenza transmission in China.
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COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/virologia , China/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Incidência , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Pandemias , Saúde Pública , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Estações do AnoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The novel COVID-19 disease has spread worldwide, resulting in a new pandemic. The Chinese government implemented strong intervention measures in the early stage of the epidemic, including strict travel bans and social distancing policies. Prioritizing the analysis of different contributing factors to outbreak outcomes is important for the precise prevention and control of infectious diseases. We proposed a novel framework for resolving this issue and applied it to data from China. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to systematically identify national-level and city-level contributing factors to the control of COVID-19 in China. METHODS: Daily COVID-19 case data and related multidimensional data, including travel-related, medical, socioeconomic, environmental, and influenza-like illness factors, from 343 cities in China were collected. A correlation analysis and interpretable machine learning algorithm were used to evaluate the quantitative contribution of factors to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates during the epidemic period (ie, January 17 to February 29, 2020). RESULTS: Many factors correlated with the spread of COVID-19 in China. Travel-related population movement was the main contributing factor for new cases and COVID-19 growth rates in China, and its contributions were as high as 77% and 41%, respectively. There was a clear lag effect for travel-related factors (previous vs current week: new cases, 45% vs 32%; COVID-19 growth rates, 21% vs 20%). Travel from non-Wuhan regions was the single factor with the most significant impact on COVID-19 growth rates (contribution: new cases, 12%; COVID-19 growth rate, 26%), and its contribution could not be ignored. City flow, a measure of outbreak control strength, contributed 16% and 7% to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates, respectively. Socioeconomic factors also played important roles in COVID-19 growth rates in China (contribution, 28%). Other factors, including medical, environmental, and influenza-like illness factors, also contributed to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates in China. Based on our analysis of individual cities, compared to Beijing, population flow from Wuhan and internal flow within Wenzhou were driving factors for increasing the number of new cases in Wenzhou. For Chongqing, the main contributing factor for new cases was population flow from Hubei, beyond Wuhan. The high COVID-19 growth rates in Wenzhou were driven by population-related factors. CONCLUSIONS: Many factors contributed to the COVID-19 outbreak outcomes in China. The differential effects of various factors, including specific city-level factors, emphasize the importance of precise, targeted strategies for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak and future infectious disease outbreaks.
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COVID-19/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , China/epidemiologia , Análise Fatorial , HumanosRESUMO
MOTIVATION: Timely surveillance of the antigenic dynamics of the influenza virus is critical for accurate selection of vaccine strains, which is important for effective prevention of viral spread and infection. RESULTS: Here, we provide a computational platform, called PREDAC-H3, for antigenic surveillance of human influenza A(H3N2) virus based on the sequence of surface protein hemagglutinin (HA). PREDAC-H3 not only determines the antigenic variants and antigenic cluster (grouped for similar antigenicity) to which the virus belongs, based on HA sequences, but also allows visualization of the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of antigenic clusters of viruses isolated from around the world, thus assisting in antigenic surveillance of human influenza A(H3N2) virus. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: It is publicly available from: http://biocloud.hnu.edu.cn/influ411/html/index.php CONTACTS: : yshu@cnic.org.cn or taijiao@moon.ibp.ac.cn.
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Biologia Computacional/métodos , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Hemaglutininas , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N2 , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Análise de Sequência de DNA , Variação Antigênica , Antígenos Virais , DNA Viral , Glicoproteínas de Hemaglutininação de Vírus da Influenza , Humanos , Vírus da Influenza ARESUMO
In this study we report on the electrodeposition of copper thiocynate (CuSCN) nanorod arrays on ITO substrate from an EDTA-chelated aqueous solution. Effects of molecule ratio of EDTA/Cu²âº and deposition time on the properties of CuSCN layers were studied. Results showed that films deposited from an electrolyte with low EDTA amounts were consisted of densely packed nano-crystals, while films deposited with high molecule ratios of EDTA/Cu²âº (>0.5) were composed of homogeneous nanorods with their (001) plane perpendicular to the substrate. Further time-dependent study showed that the formation of CuSCN nanorods was initiated at the very beginning of potential application and no intermediate or transitional products were detected during the electrochemical process. Optical analysis showed that films of CuSCN nanorods with a thickness of 100400 nm had good optical quality, and exhibited the fundamental absorption edge at 320 nm.
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Water quality assessment is crucial for assessment of marine eutrophication, prediction of harmful algal blooms, and environment protection. Previous studies have developed many numeric modeling methods and data driven approaches for water quality assessment. The cluster analysis, an approach widely used for grouping data, has also been employed. However, there are complex correlations between water quality variables, which play important roles in water quality assessment but have always been overlooked. In this paper, we analyze correlations between water quality variables and propose an alternative method for water quality assessment with hierarchical cluster analysis based on Mahalanobis distance. Further, we cluster water quality data collected form coastal water of Bohai Sea and North Yellow Sea of China, and apply clustering results to evaluate its water quality. To evaluate the validity, we also cluster the water quality data with cluster analysis based on Euclidean distance, which are widely adopted by previous studies. The results show that our method is more suitable for water quality assessment with many correlated water quality variables. To our knowledge, it is the first attempt to apply Mahalanobis distance for coastal water quality assessment.
Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Poluentes da Água/análise , Poluição da Água/estatística & dados numéricos , China , Análise por Conglomerados , Eutrofização , Mar do Norte , Qualidade da Água/normasRESUMO
While individual non-B DNA structures have been shown to impact gene expression, their broad regulatory role remains elusive. We utilized genomic variants and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data to analyze genome-wide variation propensities of potential non-B DNA regions and their relation to gene expression. Independent of genomic location, these regions were enriched in nucleotide variants. Our results are consistent with previously observed mutagenic properties of these regions and counter a previous study concluding that G-quadruplex regions have a reduced frequency of variants. While such mutagenicity might undermine functionality of these elements, we identified in potential non-B DNA regions a signature of negative selection. Yet, we found a depletion of eQTL-associated variants in potential non-B DNA regions, opposite to what might be expected from their proposed regulatory role. However, we also observed that genes downstream of potential non-B DNA regions showed higher expression variation between individuals. This coupling between mutagenicity and tolerance for expression variability of downstream genes may be a result of evolutionary adaptation, which allows reconciling mutagenicity of non-B DNA structures with their location in functionally important regions and their potential regulatory role.