Inferred Attractiveness: A generalized mechanism for sexual selection that can maintain variation in traits and preferences over time.

Sexual selection by mate choice is a powerful force that can lead to evolutionary change, and models of why females choose particular mates are central to understanding its effects. Predominant mate choice theories assume preferences are determined solely by genetic inheritance, an assumption still lacking widespread support. Moreover, preferences often vary among individuals or populations, fail to correspond with conspicuous male traits, or change with context, patterns not predicted by dominant models. Here, we propose a new model that explains this mate choice complexity with one general hypothesized mechanism, "Inferred Attractiveness." In this model, females acquire mating preferences by observing others' choices and use context-dependent information to infer which traits are attractive. They learn to prefer the feature of a chosen male that most distinguishes him from other available males. Over generations, this process produces repeated population-level switches in preference and maintains male trait variation. When viability selection is strong, Inferred Attractiveness produces population-wide adaptive preferences superficially resembling "good genes." However, it results in widespread preference variation or nonadaptive preferences under other predictable circumstances. By casting the female brain as the central selective agent, Inferred Attractiveness captures novel and dynamic aspects of sexual selection and reconciles inconsistencies between mate choice theory and observed behavior.

Dancing drives evolution of sexual size dimorphism in manakins.

Body size mediates life history, physiology and inter- and intra-specific interactions. Within species, sexes frequently differ in size, reflecting divergent selective pressures and/or constraints. Both sexual selection and differences in environmentally mediated reproductive constraints can drive sexual size dimorphism, but empirically testing causes of dimorphism is challenging. Manakins (Pipridae), a family of Neotropical birds comprising approximately 50 species, exhibit a broad range of size dimorphism from male- to female-biased and are distributed across gradients of precipitation and elevation. Males perform courtship displays ranging from simple hops to complex aerobatic manoeuvres. We tested associations between sexual size dimorphism and (a) agility and (b) environment, analysing morphological, behavioural and environmental data for 22 manakin species in a phylogenetic framework. Sexual dimorphism in mass was most strongly related to agility, with males being lighter than females in species performing more aerial display behaviours. However, wing and tarsus length dimorphism were more strongly associated with environmental variables, suggesting that different sources of selection act on different aspects of body size. These results highlight the strength of sexual selection in shaping morphology-even atypical patterns of dimorphism-while demonstrating the importance of constraints and ecological consequences of body size evolution.

Testing the developmental hypothesis of the HPA axis in a tropical passerine: Dampened corticosterone response and faster negative feedback in nestling lance-tailed manakins (Chiroxiphia lanceolata).

When vertebrates are exposed to stressors, the subsequent acute increase in glucocorticoids by the hypothalamic-pituitaryadrenal (HPA) axis triggers a suite of adaptive responses, including mobilization of stored energy and repression of non-essential processes. However, chronic exposure to high concentrations of glucocorticoids can lead to metabolic dysregulation, impaired immune function, and cognitive decline. In developing young, this hormonal stress response shows considerable variation. Generally, the physiological stress response of young of precocial species is comparable to that of adults, whereas offspring of altricial species exhibit an attenuated response compared to adults. The developmental hypothesis of the HPA axis proposes that the dampened stress response in dependent offspring is an adaptive response to avoid the negative effects of elevated glucocorticoids, particularly in altricial species where young lack the ability to mitigate stressful stimuli.We aimed to test the developmental hypothesis in a tropical avian species, the lance-tailed manakin (Chiroxiphia lanceolata). We predicted that nestlings of this altricial species should have a dampened corticosterone response, in both magnitude and duration, compared to that of adults. We also predicted that recently fledged hatch-year birds would display a response intermediate to that of adults and nestlings. We quantified circulating corticosterone levels in adults, recently fledged hatch-year birds, and 11-day-old nestlings using a standardized capture and restraint protocol. Nestlings showed a lower maximal corticosterone response and faster negative feedback compared to adults. Further, five post-fledging hatch-year birds showed a feedback response intermediate to those of nestlings and adults. However, we caution against generalizing about fledgling responses beyond this study due to the small sample (n = 5). Interestingly, lance-tailed manakin nestlings appear to return to baseline concentrations faster than nestlings of temperate species. These results support the developmental hypothesis of the HPA axis explaining variation in stress response. This study is the first to assess the development of the hormonal stress response in nestlings of a tropical bird, which is of interest because of our still-developing understanding of how tropical and temperate species differ physiologically. Finally, findings here underscore the importance of validating and adjusting sampling protocols that quantify nestling stress responses, as sampling timelines identified for adults may underestimate the magnitude of the nestling stress response.

Multiple paternity in a lek mating system: Females mate multiply when they choose inexperienced sires.

Multiple mating by females is common and often driven by social constraints on female mate choice. However, females mate with multiple males even in systems without these social constraints and rates of multiple mating tend to be highly variable within and between populations. In lek mating systems, females are able to assess multiple males and their choice is unrestricted by pair bonds or the need for biparental care, yet some females mate with multiple males. To better understand the factors affecting variation in multiple mating, we investigated the occurrence of multiple paternity within clutches in a highly polygynous lek mating system. Using long-term data on genetic paternity, survival, social status and individual age from a population of lance-tailed manakins Chiroxiphia lanceolata, a species where males lek in cooperative alpha-beta pairs, we tested five non-exclusive hypotheses about the causes of variation in multiple mating and its benefits in females. We found that inexperienced males, including new alphas and rare beta sires, were disproportionately likely to share paternity when they sired any chicks. In contrast, female age (experience) was unrelated to multiple paternity. Multiple mating did not result in higher reproductive success or reduced variance in success for females, and there were neither consistently promiscuous females nor males that consistently shared paternity. The occurrence of multiple paternity in this lek mating system was best explained by female choice related to male characteristics that change with male experience. Our results support the hypothesis that there is a developmental component to the occurrence of multiple mating, and suggest females choose to mate multiply when their choices are not optimal.

Direct and indirect effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on development and survival of young of a tropical passerine.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that influences climate variation and, in turn, the ecological processes affecting the abundance and distribution of populations across taxa. For example, the ENSO can profoundly influence the development and survival of pelagic species, but the extent to which the ENSO affects offspring of terrestrial species is less well known. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to investigate the direct and indirect relationship between the ENSO and offspring development and survival in a terrestrial tropical passerine, the lance-tailed manakin (Chiroxiphia lanceolata). The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a measure of the ENSO, was negatively related to individual growth rate, maximum number of lesion developed by nestlings, and hatching day-of-year; which in turn mediated indirect effects on fledging success and recruitment. Further the ONI was a better predictor of nestling development compared to local temperature and rainfall. Our study establishes a link between the ENSO and the development and survival of young of a terrestrial species and underscores the need to better understand how offspring cope with global climate variation.

Differential allocation in a lekking bird: females lay larger eggs and are more likely to have male chicks when they mate with less related males.

The differential allocation hypothesis predicts increased investment in offspring when females mate with high-quality males. Few studies have tested whether investment varies with mate relatedness, despite evidence that non-additive gene action influences mate and offspring genetic quality. We tested whether female lekking lance-tailed manakins (Chiroxiphia lanceolata) adjust offspring sex and egg volume in response to mate attractiveness (annual reproductive success, ARS), heterozygosity and relatedness. Across 968 offspring, the probability of being male decreased with increasing parental relatedness but not father ARS or heterozygosity. This correlation tended to diminish with increasing lay-date. Across 162 offspring, egg volume correlated negatively with parental relatedness and varied with lay-date, but was unrelated to father ARS or heterozygosity. Offspring sex and egg size were unrelated to maternal age. Comparisons of maternal half-siblings in broods with no mortality produced similar results, indicating differential allocation rather than covariation between female quality and relatedness or sex-specific inbreeding depression in survival. As males suffer greater inbreeding depression, overproducing females after mating with related males may reduce fitness costs of inbreeding in a system with no inbreeding avoidance, while biasing the sex of outbred offspring towards males may maximize fitness via increased mating success of outbred sons.

Female mating preferences and offspring survival: testing hypotheses on the genetic basis of mate choice in a wild lekking bird.

Indirect benefits of mate choice result from increased offspring genetic quality and may be important drivers of female behaviour. 'Good-genes-for-viability' models predict that females prefer mates of high additive genetic value, such that offspring survival should correlate with male attractiveness. Mate choice may also vary with genetic diversity (e.g. heterozygosity) or compatibility (e.g. relatedness), where the female's genotype influences choice. The relative importance of these nonexclusive hypotheses remains unclear. Leks offer an excellent opportunity to test their predictions, because lekking males provide no material benefits and choice is relatively unconstrained by social limitations. Using 12 years of data on lekking lance-tailed manakins, Chiroxiphia lanceolata, we tested whether offspring survival correlated with patterns of mate choice. Offspring recruitment weakly increased with father attractiveness (measured as reproductive success, RS), suggesting attractive males provide, if anything, only minor benefits via offspring viability. Both male RS and offspring survival until fledging increased with male heterozygosity. However, despite parent-offspring correlation in heterozygosity, offspring survival was unrelated to its own or maternal heterozygosity or to parental relatedness, suggesting survival was not enhanced by heterozygosity per se. Instead, offspring survival benefits may reflect inheritance of specific alleles or nongenetic effects. Although inbreeding depression in male RS should select for inbreeding avoidance, mates were not less related than expected under random mating. Although mate heterozygosity and relatedness were correlated, selection on mate choice for heterozygosity appeared stronger than that for relatedness and may be the primary mechanism maintaining genetic variation in this system despite directional sexual selection.

Does cooperation increase helpers' later success as breeders? A test of the skills hypothesis in the cooperatively displaying lance-tailed manakin.

Experience improves individual performance in many tasks. Pre-breeding cooperation may provide important experience that improves later success as a breeder, offering one compelling explanation for why some individuals delay reproduction to help others breed (the 'skills hypothesis'). However, confounding effects of age, quality and alternative selective benefits have complicated rigorous tests of this hypothesis. Male lance-tailed manakins perform cooperative courtship displays involving partnerships between unrelated alpha and beta males, and alphas monopolize resulting copulations. Beta males therefore do not receive immediate direct or indirect fitness benefits, but may gain skills during cooperation that increase their later success as an alpha. To date, however, the effect of cooperative experience on later success as a breeder has never been tested in any cooperatively displaying taxon. The effects of prior cooperative experience on reproductive success of alpha lance-tailed manakins were analysed in a mixed model framework using 12 years of information on cooperative experience and annual and lifetime genetic reproductive success for 57 alpha males. Models included previously identified effects of age and alpha tenure. Individual-level random effects controlled for quality differences to test for an independent influence of beta experience on success. Males accumulated up to 5 years of beta experience before becoming alphas, but 42·1% of alphas had no prior beta experience. Betas became alphas later in life, and experienced significantly lower reproductive success in their final year as alpha than males that were never beta, but did not have higher lifetime success or longer alpha tenures. Differences in patterns of annual siring success were best explained by age-dependent patterns of reproductive improvement and senescence among alphas, not beta experience. Cooperative experience does not increase relative breeding success for male lance-tailed manakins. Importantly, beta cooperation seems to be an alternative reproductive tactic that yields fitness payoffs equivalent to a non-cooperative route to alpha status, if population growth rate is stable.

Variation in annual and lifetime reproductive success of lance-tailed manakins: alpha experience mitigates effects of senescence on siring success.

The causes of variation in individual reproductive success over a lifetime are not well understood. In long-lived vertebrates, reproductive output usually increases during early adulthood, but it is difficult to disentangle the roles of development and learning on this gain of reproductive success. Lekking lance-tailed manakins provide an opportunity to separate these processes, as the vast majority of male reproduction occurs after a bird obtains alpha status and maintains a display area in the lek, but the age at which males achieve alpha status varies widely. Using 11 years of longitudinal data on age, social status and genetic siring success, I assessed the factors influencing variation in siring success by individuals over their lifetimes. The data show increases in annual reproductive success with both age and alpha experience. At advanced ages, these gains were offset by senescence in fecundity. Individual ontogeny, rather than compositional change of the population, generated a nonlinear relationship of breeding tenure with lifetime success; age of assuming alpha status was unrelated to tenure as a breeder, or success in the alpha role. Importantly, these findings suggest that social experience can mitigate the negative effects of senescence in older breeders.

Hormonal correlates of social status and courtship display in the cooperatively lekking lance-tailed manakin.

Though cooperative behavior has long been a focus of evolutionary biology, the proximate hormonal mechanisms underlying cooperative interactions remain poorly understood. Lance-tailed manakins (Chiroxiphia lanceolata) are tropical passerines that form long-term male-male partnerships and cooperate in paired male courtship displays. To elucidate patterns of natural hormonal variation in relation to cooperation and reproductive behavior, we examined circulating androgen levels of male lance-tailed manakins in relation to social status, display behavior, and time of year. We found significantly higher circulating androgen levels in alpha-ranked (breeding) males compared to non-alpha adult males in the population. Beta males, which participated in courtship displays but did not copulate, had androgen levels indistinguishable from those of unpaired adult males that never displayed for females, suggesting that an elevated concentration of plasma testosterone in tropical lekking birds may be associated primarily with copulatory behavior or other status-specific traits, and not the performance of courtship display. Androgens decreased throughout the breeding season for males of all status categories. Interestingly, alphas that displayed for females in the observation session prior to sampling had lower androgen levels than alphas that did not display for females. This pattern may result from female discrimination against alpha males at display areas with high levels of social conflict among males, as social disruption is linked to elevated testosterone in many species. However, recent change of a display partner was not related to alpha androgen levels. We discuss alternative explanations and the possible implications of these results, and generate several testable predictions for future investigations.

Breeder aggression does not predict current or future cooperative group formation in a cooperatively breeding bird.

In cooperatively breeding species, subordinates forgo reproduction to assist breeders in raising offspring. When cooperative breeding is facultative, breeders from the same population may differ in whether they are assisted by non-breeding helpers. Predation risk is a major source of nest failure and assistance during nest defense is often an overlooked, yet important, way helpers assist breeders. A breeder's aggressive response to a nest predator could have important implications for whether they form cooperatively breeding groups. We investigated the hypothesis that breeder aggression towards a nest predator is related to current and future helper recruitment. We tested the prediction that less aggressive breeders were more likely to form cooperative groups, which could occur if these breeders benefit from helper assistance during nest defense. We also considered the possibility that more aggressive breeders were more likely to form cooperative groups. We assessed the effects of partnerships and tested whether aggression exhibited by breeding partners was correlated. We conducted this work in the facultative, cooperatively breeding brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla). We measured breeder aggression in response to a taxidermy model of a nest predator to determine whether breeders' aggression correlated with their current or future helper recruitment. We found no evidence of a sex difference in aggression among breeders and aggression scores of breeding partners were not significantly correlated. Aggression scores for both breeding males and breeding females were unrelated to whether they formed cooperative groups in the current year. We followed most of the breeding males, though not breeding females, across years and found that breeding males' aggression scores were unrelated to helper recruitment the following year. Our results suggest that breeders' responses to nest predators are not related to cooperative group formation in this species and that males and females showed comparable levels of aggression towards a nest predator.

Sexual selection in a lekking bird: the relative opportunity for selection by female choice and male competition.

Leks are classic models for studies of sexual selection due to extreme variance in male reproductive success, but the relative influence of intrasexual competition and female mate choice in creating this skew is debatable. In the lekking lance-tailed manakin (Chiroxiphia lanceolata), these selective episodes are temporally separated into intrasexual competition for alpha status and female mate choice among alpha males that rarely interact. Variance in reproductive success between status classes of adult males (alpha versus non-alpha) can therefore be attributed to male-male competition whereas that within status largely reflects female mate choice. This provides an excellent opportunity for quantifying the relative contribution of each of these mechanisms of sexual selection to the overall opportunity for sexual selection on males (I males). To calculate variance in actual reproductive success, we assigned genetic paternity to 92.3% of 447 chicks sampled in seven years. Reproduction by non-alphas was rare and apparently reflected status misclassifications or opportunistic copulations en route to attaining alpha status rather than alternative mating strategies. On average 31% (range 7-44%, n=6 years) of the total I males was due to variance in reproductive success between alphas and non-alphas. Similarly, in a cohort of same-aged males followed for six years, 44-58% of the total I males was attributed to variance between males of different status. Thus, both intrasexual competition for status and female mate choice among lekking alpha males contribute substantially to the potential for sexual selection in this species.

Adaptive advantages of cooperative courtship for subordinate male lance-tailed manakins.

Male lance-tailed manakins (Chiroxiphia lanceolata) cooperate in complex courtship displays, but the dominant (alpha) partner monopolizes mating opportunities. This raises the question of why subordinates (betas) cooperate. Three nonexclusive hypotheses explain the adaptive basis of helping behavior by subordinate males: cooperation may increase (1) subordinates' immediate reproductive success, (2) the reproductive success of close relatives, or (3) subordinates' chances of future reproduction. I demonstrated that beta males rarely sired chicks and were unrelated to their alpha partners but received delayed direct benefits from cooperation; betas had an increased probability of becoming an alpha when compared to males that had not been betas. To investigate the mechanism by which betas attain these adaptive benefits, I examined betas' success in replacing their alpha partners both in natural turnover events and when alphas were experimentally removed. Beta males did not consistently inherit alpha roles in the same territories where they served their beta tenure, arguing that queuing for status does not fully explain the benefits of cooperation for betas. Instead, betas may be apprenticing to develop effective and appropriate displays that enhance their subsequent success as alphas. Complex social affiliations appear to mediate selective pressure for cooperation in this species.