Repurposing isoxazoline veterinary drugs for control of vector-borne human diseases.

Isoxazolines are oral insecticidal drugs currently licensed for ectoparasite control in companion animals. Here we propose their use in humans for the reduction of vector-borne disease incidence. Fluralaner and afoxolaner rapidly killed Anopheles, Aedes, and Culex mosquitoes and Phlebotomus sand flies after feeding on a drug-supplemented blood meal, with IC50 values ranging from 33 to 575 nM, and were fully active against strains with preexisting resistance to common insecticides. Based on allometric scaling of preclinical pharmacokinetics data, we predict that a single human median dose of 260 mg (IQR, 177-407 mg) for afoxolaner, or 410 mg (IQR, 278-648 mg) for fluralaner, could provide an insecticidal effect lasting 50-90 days against mosquitoes and Phlebotomus sand flies. Computational modeling showed that seasonal mass drug administration of such a single dose to a fraction of a regional population would dramatically reduce clinical cases of Zika and malaria in endemic settings. Isoxazolines therefore represent a promising new component of drug-based vector control.

EARLY CRT MONITORING USING TIME-DOMAIN OPTICAL COHERENCE TOMOGRAPHY DOES NOT ADD TO VISUAL ACUITY FOR PREDICTING VISUAL LOSS IN PATIENTS WITH CENTRAL RETINAL VEIN OCCLUSION TREATED WITH INTRAVITREAL RANIBIZUMAB: A Secondary Analysis of Trial Data.

PURPOSE: Our primary purpose was to assess the clinical (predictive) validity of central retinal thickness (CRT) and best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 1 week and 1 month after starting treatment with ranibizumab for central retinal vein occlusion. The authors also assessed detectability of response to treatment. METHODS: The authors used data from 325 participants in the CRUISE study, which included measurement of time-domain CRT and BCVA at baseline, 1 week, 1 month, and 6 months postrandomization. Analysis of covariance models were fitted to assess clinical validity, and distributions of change were constructed to assess detectability of response. RESULTS: There was no evidence that 1-week CRT, and very strong evidence that 1-week BCVA were associated with baseline-adjusted BCVA at 6 months (P = 0.17 and P < 0.001, respectively). There was strong evidence that both 1-month CRT and 1-month BCVA were associated with baseline-adjusted 6-month BCVA (P = 0.005 and P < 0.001, respectively), but simultaneous adjustment found evidence of independent association only for BCVA (P = 0.71 and P < 0.001 for CRT and BCVA, respectively). Detectability of response tended to be higher for CRT than BCVA at 1 week and 1 month but by 6 months these were equivalent for CRT and BCVA. CONCLUSION: In this study, BCVA monitoring of treated central retinal vein occlusion patients seemed more informative than time-domain optical coherence tomography monitoring.

Relationship between Histological and Clinical Course of Psoriasis: A Pilot Investigation by Reflectance Confocal Microscopy during Goeckerman Treatment.

Alterations of the skin microvasculature are known to play an important role in the development and maintenance of psoriatic skin lesions. In this study, we investigated lesional skin in 11 psoriatic patients during a modified Goeckerman treatment using reflectance confocal microscopy (RCM) to study the relationship between clinical clearance and histological normalization of psoriatic skin and the significance of histological abnormalities on the course of disease. The treatment regimen resulted in a significant reduction of the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) as well as capillary and papillary diameters (p < 0.0001). The capillary and papillary diameters were still enlarged when compared to those in normal skin (p < 0.001). Capillary and papillary diameters correlated with each other prior to and after treatment (correlation coefficient = 0.63 and 0.64, p = 0.01 and 0.002, respectively) but not with the PASI. Capillary and papillary diameters after treatment and percentage reduction of the PASI during treatment seemed to be better predictors for the clinical course of relapse than the PASI after treatment. These findings make the subclinical changes of psoriatic skin vessels and dermal papillae a legitimate target for treatment. Further investigations of a large group of patients are needed to evaluate the potential of RCM findings as successor of the PASI in the monitoring of psoriasis.

Whole Blood Interferon γ Release Is a More Sensitive Marker of Prior Exposure to Coxiella burnetii Than Are Antibody Responses.

For the zoonotic disease Q fever, serological analysis plays a dominant role in the diagnosis of Coxiella burnetii infection and in pre-screening for past exposure prior to vaccination. A number of studies suggest that assessment of C. burnetii-specific T-cell IFNγ responses may be a more sensitive tool to assess past exposure. In this study, we assessed the performance of a whole blood C. burnetii IFNγ release assay in comparison to serological detection in an area of high Q fever incidence in 2014, up to seven years after initial exposure during the Dutch Q fever outbreak 2007-2010. In a cohort of >1500 individuals from the Dutch outbreak village of Herpen, approximately 60% had mounted IFNγ responses to C. burnetii. This proportion was independent of the Coxiella strain used for stimulation and much higher than the proportion of individuals scored sero-positive using the serological gold standard immunofluorescence assay. Moreover, C. burnetii-specific IFNγ responses were found to be more durable than antibody responses in two sub-groups of individuals known to have sero-converted as of 2007 or previously reported to the municipality as notified Q fever cases. A novel ready-to-use version of the IFNγ release assay assessed in a subgroup of pre-exposed individuals in 2021 (10-14 years post exposure) proved again to be more sensitive than serology in detecting past exposure. These data demonstrate that C. burnetii-induced IFNγ release is indeed a more sensitive and durable marker of exposure to C. burnetii than are serological responses. In combination with a simplified assay version suitable for implementation in routine diagnostic settings, this makes the assessment of IFNγ responses a valuable tool for exposure screening to obtain epidemiological data, and to identify previously exposed individuals in pre-vaccination screens.

Antiviral prophylaxis during pandemic influenza may increase drug resistance.

BACKGROUND: Neuraminidase inhibitors (NI) and social distancing play a major role in plans to mitigate future influenza pandemics. METHODS: Using the freely available program InfluSim, the authors examine to what extent NI-treatment and prophylaxis promote the occurrence and transmission of a NI resistant strain. RESULTS: Under a basic reproduction number of R0 = 2.5, a NI resistant strain can only spread if its transmissibility (fitness) is at least 40% of the fitness of the drug-sensitive strain. Although NI drug resistance may emerge in treated patients in such a late state of their disease that passing on the newly developed resistant viruses is unlikely, resistant strains quickly become highly prevalent in the population if their fitness is high. Antiviral prophylaxis further increases the pressure on the drug-sensitive strain and favors the spread of resistant infections. The authors show scenarios where pre-exposure antiviral prophylaxis even increases the number of influenza cases and deaths. CONCLUSION: If the fitness of a NI resistant pandemic strain is high, any use of prophylaxis may increase the number of hospitalizations and deaths in the population. The use of neuraminidase inhibitors should be restricted to the treatment of cases whereas prophylaxis should be reduced to an absolute minimum in that case.

Effects of interventions on the demand for hospital services in an influenza pandemic: a sensitivity analysis.

PRINCIPLES: The evaluation of the capacity of a country's public health system in case of an influenza pandemic is essential for preparedness planning. Only few studies compare existing medical resources with those required during a severe pandemic. METHODS: We perform a sensitivity analysis with the freely available simulation tool InfluSim to explore the expected number of outpatient visits and the hospital bed occupancy in an influenza pandemic in Switzerland. We define plausible ranges for unknown parameter values and take random samples from these ranges. A set of four simulations is run for each parameter constellation, considering no intervention, contact reduction, antiviral treatment or a combination of both interventions. RESULTS: We find that the peak number of outpatient visits of influenza patients would still be manageable by the current number of active physicians with praxis in Switzerland, and that the demand of hospital beds would be only sustainable in the case of a good compliance of the combined interventions. On the other hand, the demand on intensive care unit beds is unsustainably high. CONCLUSIONS: The range of outcomes, resulting from parameter uncertainty, reaches from outpatient and hospitalization values which are half as high as the median to values which double the median. A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can considerably mitigate a severe pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter constellation combining (mild outbreaks with a high compliance of interventions).

Impact of public health interventions in controlling the spread of SARS: modelling of intervention scenarios.

A variety of intervention measures exist to prevent and control diseases with pandemic potential like SARS or pandemic influenza. They differ in their approach and effectiveness in reducing the number of cases getting infected. The effects of different intervention measures were investigated by a mathematical modelling approach, with comparisons based on the effective reproduction number (R(e)). The analysis showed that early case detection followed by strict isolation could control a SARS outbreak. Tracing close contacts of cases and contacts of exposed health care workers additionally reduces the R(e). Tracing casual contacts and measures aiming to decrease social interaction were less effective in reducing the number of SARS cases. The study emphasizes the importance of early identification and isolation of SARS cases to reduce the number of people getting infected. However, doing so transfers cases to health care facilities, making infection control measures in hospitals essential to avoid nosocomial spread. The modelling approach applied in this study is useful for analysing interactions of different intervention measures for reducing the R(e) of SARS.

Modeling the effects of drug resistant influenza virus in a pandemic.

Neuraminidase inhibitors (NI) play a major role in plans to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Modeling studies suggested that a pandemic may be contained at the source by early treatment and prophylaxis with antiviral drugs. Here, we examine the influence of NI resistant influenza strains on an influenza pandemic. We extend the freely available deterministic simulation program InfluSim to incorporate importations of resistant infections and the emergence of de novo resistance. The epidemic with the fully drug sensitive strain leads to a cumulative number of 19,500 outpatients and 258 hospitalizations, respectively, per 100,000 inhabitants. Development of de novo resistance alone increases the total number of outpatients by about 6% and hospitalizations by about 21%. If a resistant infection is introduced into the population after three weeks, the outcome dramatically deteriorates. Wide-spread use of NI treatment makes it highly likely that the resistant strain will spread if its fitness is high. This situation is further aggravated if a resistant virus is imported into a country in the early phase of an outbreak. As NI-resistant influenza infections with high fitness and pathogenicity have just been observed, the emergence of drug resistance in treated populations and the transmission of drug resistant strains is an important public health concern for seasonal and pandemic influenza.

The influenza pandemic preparedness planning tool InfluSim.

BACKGROUND: Planning public health responses against pandemic influenza relies on predictive models by which the impact of different intervention strategies can be evaluated. Research has to date rather focused on producing predictions for certain localities or under specific conditions, than on designing a publicly available planning tool which can be applied by public health administrations. Here, we provide such a tool which is reproducible by an explicitly formulated structure and designed to operate with an optimal combination of the competing requirements of precision, realism and generality. RESULTS: InfluSim is a deterministic compartment model based on a system of over 1,000 differential equations which extend the classic SEIR model by clinical and demographic parameters relevant for pandemic preparedness planning. It allows for producing time courses and cumulative numbers of influenza cases, outpatient visits, applied antiviral treatment doses, hospitalizations, deaths and work days lost due to sickness, all of which may be associated with economic aspects. The software is programmed in Java, operates platform independent and can be executed on regular desktop computers. CONCLUSION: InfluSim is an online available software http://www.influsim.info which efficiently assists public health planners in designing optimal interventions against pandemic influenza. It can reproduce the infection dynamics of pandemic influenza like complex computer simulations while offering at the same time reproducibility, higher computational performance and better operability.

Modelling mosquito infection at natural parasite densities identifies drugs targeting EF2, PI4K or ATP4 as key candidates for interrupting malaria transmission.

Eradication of malaria requires a novel type of drug that blocks transmission from the human to the mosquito host, but selection of such a drug is hampered by a lack of translational models. Experimental mosquito infections yield infection intensities that are substantially higher than observed in natural infections and, as a consequence, underestimate the drug effect on the proportion of mosquitoes that become infected. Here we introduce a novel experimental and computational method to adequately describe drug efficacy at natural parasite densities. Parameters of a beta-binomial infection model were established and validated using a large number of experimental mosquito infections at different parasite densities. Analyses of 15 experimental and marketed drugs revealed a class-specific ability to block parasite transmission. Our results highlight the parasite's elongation factor EF2, PI4 kinase and the ATP4 sodium channel as key targets for interruption of transmission, and compounds DDD107498 and KAE609 as most advanced drug candidates.

Determinants of the eradicability of filarial infections: a conceptual approach.

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are subject to major intervention programs by the WHO. The Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa was launched 30 years ago and has led to considerable insights into the control of this infection. The Global Alliance to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis is a relatively recent control program with ambitious targets concerning its efficacy and its schedule. These expectations, however, are based on certain assumptions about the density-dependent processes of limitation and facilitation which determine eradicability: the levels of transmission thresholds and breakpoints. Here, we review these processes operating in filarial infections and show their impact on the persistence of the parasite, as well as pointing out those issues where more information is required to develop sound predictions about the eradicability of these infections.

Modeling senescence in hypotrichous ciliates.

A sexually reproducing hypotrichous ciliates undergo senescence which is in general attributed to degenerative processes in the macronucleus, assuming that loss of viability is based on loss of genetic elements. It is generally accepted that the genetic elements in the macronucleus of hypotrichs segregate randomly, a process which potentially can lead to aneuploid imbalances in the distribution of gene copies. It is, however, unclear whether there are mechanisms which compensate for such imbalances such that each genetic element regains its predetermined copy number (regulatory model, conserving euploidy), or whether the genetic elements only double, so that genetic imbalances can be inherited to further generations (stochastic model, allowing aneuploidy). By means of mathematical modeling and simulations, we investigate these two models with respect to the number of generations a lineage of hypotrichs can survive under asexual conditions. Whereas the regulatory model cannot explain senescence in hypotrichs, the stochastic model provides plausible results which, however, strongly depend on the assumed distribution of copy numbers which we investigate by means of three examples. For both models, simple prediction formulae for the approximate survival time of asexually reproducing ciliates are provided.

Model-based investigations of different vector-related intervention strategies to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent.

The elimination of infectious diseases requires reducing transmission below a certain threshold. The Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) Elimination Initiative in Southeast Asia aims to reduce the annual VL incidence rate below 1 case per 10,000 inhabitants in endemic areas by 2015 via a combination of case management and vector control. Using a previously developed VL transmission model, we investigated transmission thresholds dependent on measures reducing the sand fly density either by killing sand flies (e.g., indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticidal nets) or by destroying breeding sites (e.g., environmental management). Model simulations suggest that elimination of VL is possible if the sand fly density can be reduced by 67% through killing sand flies, or if the number of breeding sites can be reduced by more than 79% through measures of environmental management. These results were compared to data from two recent cluster randomised controlled trials conducted in India, Nepal and Bangladesh showing a 72% reduction in sand fly density after indoor residual spraying, a 44% and 25% reduction through the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets and a 42% reduction after environmental management. Based on model predictions, we identified the parameters within the transmission cycle of VL that predominantly determine the prospects of intervention success. We suggest further research to refine model-based predictions into the elimination of VL.

Treatment of visceral leishmaniasis: model-based analyses on the spread of antimony-resistant L. donovani in Bihar, India.

BACKGROUND: Pentavalent antimonials have been the mainstay of antileishmanial therapy for decades, but increasing failure rates under antimonial treatment have challenged further use of these drugs in the Indian subcontinent. Experimental evidence has suggested that parasites which are resistant against antimonials have superior survival skills than sensitive ones even in the absence of antimonial treatment. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use simulation studies based on a mathematical L. donovani transmission model to identify parameters which can explain why treatment failure rates under antimonial treatment increased up to 65% in Bihar between 1980 and 1997. Model analyses suggest that resistance to treatment alone cannot explain the observed treatment failure rates. We explore two hypotheses referring to an increased fitness of antimony-resistant parasites: the additional fitness is (i) disease-related, by causing more clinical cases (higher pathogenicity) or more severe disease (higher virulence), or (ii) is transmission-related, by increasing the transmissibility from sand flies to humans or vice versa. CONCLUSIONS: Both hypotheses can potentially explain the Bihar observations. However, increased transmissibility as an explanation appears more plausible because it can occur in the background of asymptomatically transmitted infection whereas disease-related factors would most probably be observable. Irrespective of the cause of fitness, parasites with a higher fitness will finally replace sensitive parasites, even if antimonials are replaced by another drug.

Visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: modelling epidemiology and control.

BACKGROUND: In the Indian subcontinent, about 200 million people are at risk of developing visceral leishmaniasis (VL). In 2005, the governments of India, Nepal and Bangladesh started the first regional VL elimination program with the aim to reduce the annual incidence to less than 1 per 10,000 by 2015. A mathematical model was developed to support this elimination program with basic quantifications of transmission, disease and intervention parameters. This model was used to predict the effects of different intervention strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Parameters on the natural history of Leishmania infection were estimated based on a literature review and expert opinion or drawn from a community intervention trial (the KALANET project). The transmission dynamic of Leishmania donovani is rather slow, mainly due to its long incubation period and the potentially long persistence of parasites in infected humans. Cellular immunity as measured by the Leishmanin skin test (LST) lasts on average for roughly one year, and re-infection occurs in intervals of about two years, with variation not specified. The model suggests that transmission of L. donovani is predominantly maintained by asymptomatically infected hosts. Only patients with symptomatic disease were eligible for treatment; thus, in contrast to vector control, the treatment of cases had almost no effect on the overall intensity of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of Kala-azar is necessary on the level of the individual patient but may have little effect on transmission of parasites. In contrast, vector control or exposure prophylaxis has the potential to efficiently reduce transmission of parasites. Based on these findings, control of VL should pay more attention to vector-related interventions. Cases of PKDL may appear after years and may initiate a new outbreak of disease; interventions should therefore be long enough, combined with an active case detection and include effective treatment.

Influenza--insights from mathematical modelling.

BACKGROUND: When the first cases of a new infectious disease appear, questions arise about the further course of the epidemic and about the appropriate interventions to be taken to protect individuals and the public as a whole. Mathematical models can help answer these questions. In this article, the authors describe basic concepts in the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, illustrate their use with a simple example, and present the results of influenza models. METHOD: Description of the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases and selective review of the literature. RESULTS: The two fundamental concepts of mathematical modelling of infectious diseases-the basic reproduction number and the generation time-allow a better understanding of the course of an epidemic. Modelling studies based on past influenza epidemics suggest that the rise of the epidemic curve can be slowed at the beginning of the epidemic by isolating ill persons and giving prophylactic medications to their contacts. Later on in the course of the epidemic, restricting the number of contacts (e.g., by closing schools) may mitigate the epidemic but will only have a limited effect on the total number of persons who contract the disease. CONCLUSION: Mathematical modelling is a valuable tool for understanding the dynamics of an epidemic and for planning and evaluating interventions.

Blood transfusion and spread of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) may be transmissible by blood. To prevent secondary transmission through blood components, several countries have started to exclude as donors persons who have received a blood transfusion. We investigated the effectiveness of this measure by using a dynamic age-structured model. It is the first such model based on epidemiologic data: 1) blood donor activities, 2) a case-control study on CJD, 3) age distribution of recipients, and 4) death of recipients of blood transfusions. The model predicts that an infection like vCJD, which has been introduced into the population by the alimentary route, could not become endemic by transfusion alone and that only <1% of cases would be avoided by excluding from blood donation those persons who have received a transfusion.