The Role of The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in Identifying Critically Ill Patients at Risk of Mortality in Nigeria. A Retrospective Record Review.

Background: Clinical deterioration in critically ill patients is a common phenomenon that can occur several hours before an adverse outcome. Early detection of subtle changes in vital signs, such as alterations in pulse rate and blood pressure, is crucial for preventing adverse events. However, these are not often recognized early enough to prompt quick intervention. The use of warning scores or assessment systems in the management of the critically ill in Nigeria has not been well evaluated. We assessed the association between the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) system and outcomes particularly mortality among the critically ill at the Jos University Teaching Hospital (JUTH), Nigeria. Methodology: This study is a retrospective study involving adults admitted to the medical and surgical wards between January 2021 and July 2021. Patient medical records were used to obtain data such as socio-demographics, and vital signs, which were used to compute the NEWS variable, diagnosis, length of stay, outcomes, and complications. Patients were classified as low, medium, and high-risk based on their NEWS scores within the first 24 hours of admission and 24 hours prior to the outcome of interest (death or discharge). Results: A total of 405 patients were included in this study. Patients with low, medium, and high-risk NEWS scores within the first 24 hours of admission, had an 11.1%, 9%, and 17% chance of death respectively. In the NEWS score high-risk group 24 hours prior to outcome (death or discharge), the risk of mortality increased to 20.6% and there was a four-fold increase in odds of death. Conclusion: Our results showed that the NEWS score predicted outcome and may suggest that the implementation of the NEWS score as a routine tool for monitoring inpatients at the Jos University Teaching Hospital could help to detect patients at risk of adverse events.

Characteristics, management, and outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in Africa: a multicountry observational study from the Africa Liver Cancer Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma is a leading cause of cancer-related death in Africa, but there is still no comprehensive description of the current status of its epidemiology in Africa. We therefore initiated an African hepatocellular carcinoma consortium aiming to describe the clinical presentation, management, and outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in Africa. METHODS: We did a multicentre, multicountry, retrospective observational cohort study, inviting investigators from the African Network for Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases to participate in the consortium to develop hepatocellular carcinoma research databases and biospecimen repositories. Participating institutions were from Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. Clinical information-demographic characteristics, cause of disease, liver-related blood tests, tumour characteristics, treatments, last follow-up date, and survival status-for patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma between Aug 1, 2006, and April 1, 2016, were extracted from medical records by participating investigators. Because patients from Egypt showed differences in characteristics compared with patients from the other countries, we divided patients into two groups for analysis; Egypt versus other African countries. We undertook a multifactorial analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model to identify factors affecting survival (assessed from the time of diagnosis to last known follow-up or death). FINDINGS: We obtained information for 2566 patients at 21 tertiary referral centres (two in Egypt, nine in Nigeria, four in Ghana, and one each in the Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Sudan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda). 1251 patients were from Egypt and 1315 were from the other African countries (491 from Ghana, 363 from Nigeria, 277 from Ivory Coast, 59 from Cameroon, 51 from Sudan, 33 from Ethiopia, 21 from Tanzania, and 20 from Uganda). The median age at which hepatocellular carcinoma was diagnosed significantly later in Egypt than the other African countries (58 years [IQR 53-63] vs 46 years [36-58]; p<0·0001). Hepatitis C virus was the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma in Egypt (1054 [84%] of 1251 patients), and hepatitis B virus was the leading cause in the other African countries (597 [55%] of 1082 patients). Substantially fewer patients received treatment specifically for hepatocellular carcinoma in the other African countries than in Egypt (43 [3%] of 1315 vs 956 [76%] of 1251; p<0·0001). Among patients with survival information (605 [48%] of 1251 in Egypt and 583 [44%] of 1315 in other African countries), median survival was shorter in the other African countries than in Egypt (2·5 months [95% CI 2·0-3·1] vs 10·9 months [9·6-12·0]; p<0·0001). Factors independently associated with poor survival were: being from an African countries other than Egypt (hazard ratio [HR] 1·59 [95% CI 1·13-2·20]; p=0·01), hepatic encephalopathy (2·81 [1·72-4·42]; p=0·0004), diameter of the largest tumour (1·07 per cm increase [1·04-1·11]; p<0·0001), log α-fetoprotein (1·10 per unit increase [1·02-1·20]; p=0·0188), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 3-4 (2·92 [2·13-3·93]; p<0·0001) and no treatment (1·79 [1·44-2·22]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma differ between Egypt and other African countries. The proportion of patients receiving specific treatment in other African countries was low and their outcomes were extremely poor. Urgent efforts are needed to develop health policy strategies to decrease the burden of hepatocellular carcinoma in Africa. FUNDING: None.