Predicting poverty. Data mining approaches to the health and demographic surveillance system in Cuatro Santos, Nicaragua.

BACKGROUND: In order to further identify the needed interventions for continued poverty reduction in our study area Cuatro Santos, northern Nicaragua, we aimed to elucidate what predicts poverty, measured by the Unsatisfied Basic Need index. This analysis was done by using decision tree methodology applied to the Cuatro Santos health and demographic surveillance databases. METHODS: Using variables derived from the health and demographic surveillance update 2014, transferring individual data to the household level we used the decision tree framework Conditional Inference trees to predict the outcome "poverty" defined as two to four unsatisfied basic needs using the Unsatisfied Basic Need Index. We further validated the trees by applying Conditional random forest analyses in order to assess and rank the importance of predictors about their ability to explain the variation of the outcome "poverty." The majority of the Cuatro Santos households provided information and the included variables measured housing conditions, assets, and demographic experiences since the last update (5 yrs), earlier participation in interventions and food security during the last 4 weeks. RESULTS: Poverty was rare in households that have some assets and someone in the household that has a higher education than primary school. For these households participating in the intervention that installed piped water with water meter was most important, but also when excluding this variable, the resulting tree showed the same results. When assets were not taken into consideration, the importance of education was pronounced as a predictor for welfare. The results were further strengthened by the validation using Conditional random forest modeling showing the same variables being important as predicting the outcome in the CI tree analysis. As assets can be a result, rather than a predictor of more affluence our results in summary point specifically to the importance of education and participation in the water installation intervention as predictors for more affluence. CONCLUSION: Predictors of poverty are useful for directing interventions and in the Cuatro Santos area education seems most important to prioritize. Hopefully, the lessons learned can continue to develop the Cuatro Santos communities as well as development in similar poor rural settings around the world.

The risk of uterine rupture is not increased with single- compared with double-layer closure: a Swedish cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare single- with double-layer closure of the uterus for the risk of uterine rupture in women attempting vaginal birth after one prior caesarean delivery. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Sweden. POPULATION: From a total of 19 604 nulliparous women delivered by caesarean section in the years 2001-2007, 7683 women attempting vaginal birth in their second delivery were analysed. METHODS: Data from population-based registers were linked to hospital-based registers that held data from maternity and delivery records. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of uterine rupture after single- or double-layer closure of the uterus. Results are presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Uterine rupture. RESULTS: Uterine rupture during labour occurred in 103 (1.3%) women. There was no increased risk of uterine rupture when single- was compared with double-layer closure of the uterus (OR 1.17; 95% CI 0.78-1.76). Maternal factors associated with uterine rupture were: age ≥35 years and height ≤160 cm. Factors from the first delivery associated with uterine rupture in a subsequent delivery were: infection and giving birth to an infant large for gestational age. Risk factors from the second delivery were induction of labour, use of epidural analgesia, and a birthweight of ≥4500 g. CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant difference in the rate of uterine rupture when single-layer closure was compared with double -layer closure of the uterus.

Preterm birth or foetal growth impairment and psychiatric hospitalization in adolescence and early adulthood in a Swedish population-based birth cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Preterm birth and restricted foetal growth are related to symptoms of psychiatric disorder. Our aim was therefore to investigate possible relations between being born preterm and/or small for gestational age (SGA) and later psychiatric hospitalization. METHOD: A population-based registry study of psychiatric hospitalization of in total 155,994 boys and 148,281 girls born in Sweden in 1973-1975. RESULTS: The risk of hospitalization for all mental disorders was increased for preterm SGA boys (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.49-3.21); at-term SGA boys (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.34-1.79); at-term SGA girls (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.15-1.50). At-term SGA boys and girls suffered increased risk of anxiety and adjustment disorders (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.18-2.45 and OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.14-1.94). Preterm SGA boys were at risk of personality disorders (OR 3.30, 95% CI 1.16-9.41) and psychotic disorders (OR 4.36, 95% CI 1.85-10.30). CONCLUSION: The results show a relationship between being born SGA and later psychiatric hospitalization, where preterm birth and male gender seem to increase the risk.

Influence of obesity on the use of sickness absence and social benefits among pregnant working women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if obesity in early pregnancy has any possible impact on the capacity of pregnant women to engage in gainful employment. METHODS: Register data from a database on sickness absence and pregnancy benefit and parental benefit claims were combined with type of occupation and body mass index (BMI) for 693 women consecutively delivered during the course of one year at a county hospital in Sweden. RESULTS: The results showed the lowest BMI among women who had administrative jobs and the highest BMI in women who undertook more burdensome and heavy types of manual work. A significant increase in BMI was also seen among those pregnant women who were registered as unemployed. The finding that in the manual types of occupation, obese pregnant women took almost twice as many days of leave provided by the parental benefit programme as did women with a BMI of <25, indicates that obese pregnant women perhaps do not have the same physical endurance required to manage the combined demands of work and pregnancy. No differences were found with regard to sickness absence between obese women and pregnant women with normal BMI; however, differences were found between different occupational groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that a woman's BMI at the beginning of pregnancy is associated with her occupational status. Obesity among pregnant women may well be used as a psychosocial indicator as obesity correlates with social and economic problems. Any planned weight reduction programme in antenatal care must therefore consider this important psychosocial aspect.