Unforeseen plant phenotypic diversity in a dry and grazed world.

Earth harbours an extraordinary plant phenotypic diversity1 that is at risk from ongoing global changes2,3. However, it remains unknown how increasing aridity and livestock grazing pressure-two major drivers of global change4-6-shape the trait covariation that underlies plant phenotypic diversity1,7. Here we assessed how covariation among 20 chemical and morphological traits responds to aridity and grazing pressure within global drylands. Our analysis involved 133,769 trait measurements spanning 1,347 observations of 301 perennial plant species surveyed across 326 plots from 6 continents. Crossing an aridity threshold of approximately 0.7 (close to the transition between semi-arid and arid zones) led to an unexpected 88% increase in trait diversity. This threshold appeared in the presence of grazers, and moved toward lower aridity levels with increasing grazing pressure. Moreover, 57% of observed trait diversity occurred only in the most arid and grazed drylands, highlighting the phenotypic uniqueness of these extreme environments. Our work indicates that drylands act as a global reservoir of plant phenotypic diversity and challenge the pervasive view that harsh environmental conditions reduce plant trait diversity8-10. They also highlight that many alternative strategies may enable plants to cope with increases in environmental stress induced by climate change and land-use intensification.

Global hotspots for soil nature conservation.

Soils are the foundation of all terrestrial ecosystems1. However, unlike for plants and animals, a global assessment of hotspots for soil nature conservation is still lacking2. This hampers our ability to establish nature conservation priorities for the multiple dimensions that support the soil system: from soil biodiversity to ecosystem services. Here, to identify global hotspots for soil nature conservation, we performed a global field survey that includes observations of biodiversity (archaea, bacteria, fungi, protists and invertebrates) and functions (critical for six ecosystem services) in 615 composite samples of topsoil from a standardized survey in all continents. We found that each of the different ecological dimensions of soils-that is, species richness (alpha diversity, measured as amplicon sequence variants), community dissimilarity and ecosystem services-peaked in contrasting regions of the planet, and were associated with different environmental factors. Temperate ecosystems showed the highest species richness, whereas community dissimilarity peaked in the tropics, and colder high-latitudinal ecosystems were identified as hotspots of ecosystem services. These findings highlight the complexities that are involved in simultaneously protecting multiple ecological dimensions of soil. We further show that most of these hotspots are not adequately covered by protected areas (more than 70%), and are vulnerable in the context of several scenarios of global change. Our global estimation of priorities for soil nature conservation highlights the importance of accounting for the multidimensionality of soil biodiversity and ecosystem services to conserve soils for future generations.

Unearthing the soil-borne microbiome of land plants.

Plant-soil biodiversity interactions are fundamental for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Yet, the existence of a set of globally distributed topsoil microbial and small invertebrate organisms consistently associated with land plants (i.e., their consistent soil-borne microbiome), together with the environmental preferences and functional capabilities of these organisms, remains unknown. We conducted a standardized field survey under 150 species of land plants, including 58 species of bryophytes and 92 of vascular plants, across 124 locations from all continents. We found that, despite the immense biodiversity of soil organisms, the land plants evaluated only shared a small fraction (less than 1%) of all microbial and invertebrate taxa that were present across contrasting climatic and soil conditions and vegetation types. These consistent taxa were dominated by generalist decomposers and phagotrophs and their presence was positively correlated with the abundance of functional genes linked to mineralization. Finally, we showed that crossing environmental thresholds in aridity (aridity index of 0.65, i.e., the transition from mesic to dry ecosystems), soil pH (5.5; i.e., the transition from acidic to strongly acidic soils), and carbon (less than 2%, the lower limit of fertile soils) can result in drastic disruptions in the associations between land plants and soil organisms, with potential implications for the delivery of soil ecosystem processes under ongoing global environmental change.

Predicted changes in distribution and grazing value of Stipa-based plant communities across the Eurasian steppe.

The Eurasian steppe is one of the world's largest continuous areas of grassland and has an important role in supporting livestock grazing, the most ubiquitous land use on Earth. However, the Eurasian steppe is under threat, from irrational grazing utilization, climate change, and resource exploitation. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict the current and future distribution of Stipa-dominated plant communities in three important steppe subregions; the Tibetan Alpine, Central Asian, and Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregions. We combined this with an assessment of the grazing value of 22 Stipa species, the dominant grassland species in the area, to predict how grazing value might change under future climate change predictions. We found that the effects of changing climates on grazing values differed across the three subregions. Grazing values increased in the Tibetan alpine steppe and to a lesser extent in Central Asia, but there were few changes in the Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregion. The response of different species to changing climates varied with environmental variables. Finally, our trait-based assessment of Stipa species revealed variations in grazing value, and this had major effects on the overall grazing value of the region. Our results reinforce the importance of trait-based characteristics of steppe plant species, how these traits affect grazing value, and how grazing values will change across different areas of the Eurasian steppe. Our work provides valuable insights into how different species will respond to changing climates and grazing, with important implications for sustainable management of different areas of the vast Eurasian steppe ecosystem.

Functional trait trade-offs define plant population stability across different biomes.

Ecological theory posits that temporal stability patterns in plant populations are associated with differences in species' ecological strategies. However, empirical evidence is lacking about which traits, or trade-offs, underlie species stability, especially across different biomes. We compiled a worldwide collection of long-term permanent vegetation records (greater than 7000 plots from 78 datasets) from a large range of habitats which we combined with existing trait databases. We tested whether the observed inter-annual variability in species abundance (coefficient of variation) was related to multiple individual traits. We found that populations with greater leaf dry matter content and seed mass were more stable over time. Despite the variability explained by these traits being low, their effect was consistent across different datasets. Other traits played a significant, albeit weaker, role in species stability, and the inclusion of multi-variate axes or phylogeny did not substantially modify nor improve predictions. These results provide empirical evidence and highlight the relevance of specific ecological trade-offs, i.e. in different resource-use and dispersal strategies, for plant populations stability across multiple biomes. Further research is, however, necessary to integrate and evaluate the role of other specific traits, often not available in databases, and intraspecific trait variability in modulating species stability.

Rewilding soil-disturbing vertebrates to rehabilitate degraded landscapes: benefits and risks.

Soil-disturbing animals are common globally and play important roles in creating and maintaining healthy functional soils and landscapes. Yet many of these animals are threatened or locally extinct due to habitat loss, predation by non-native animals or poaching and poisoning. Some reintroduction and rewilding programmes have as their core aims to increase animal populations and reinstate processes that have been lost due to their extirpation. Here we use a meta-analytical approach to review the effects of soil-disturbing vertebrates on ecosystem processes, and advance the argument that they can be used to rehabilitate degraded ecosystems by altering mainly composition and function, but with fewer positive effects on structure. We describe four examples where the loss or reintroduction of soil-disturbing vertebrates leads to ecosystem state changes and highlight the role of spatial scale, covarying management changes, and species co-occurrence in modulating their effects. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using soil-disturbing vertebrates over mechanized engineering approaches such as pitting and furrowing, considering some advantages to include more self-sustainable and heterogeneous disturbances, creation of new habitats and added recreational values. Finally, we identify key knowledge gaps in our understanding of the use of soil-disturbing vertebrates for rehabilitating degraded ecosystems.

Severe Prolonged Drought Favours Stress-Tolerant Microbes in Australian Drylands.

Drylands comprise one-third of Earth's terrestrial surface area and support over two billion people. Most drylands are projected to experience altered rainfall regimes, including changes in total amounts and fewer but larger rainfall events interspersed by longer periods without rain. This transition will have ecosystem-wide impacts but the long-term effects on microbial communities remain poorly quantified. We assessed belowground effects of altered rainfall regimes (+ 65% and -65% relative to ambient) at six sites in arid and semi-arid Australia over a period of three years (2016-2019) coinciding with a significant natural drought event (2017-2019). Microbial communities differed significantly among semi-arid and arid sites and across years associated with variation in abiotic factors, such as pH and carbon content, along with rainfall. Rainfall treatments induced shifts in microbial community composition only at a subset of the sites (Milparinka and Quilpie). However, differential abundance analyses revealed that several taxa, including Acidobacteria, TM7, Gemmatimonadates and Chytridiomycota, were more abundant in the wettest year (2016) and that their relative abundance decreased in drier years. By contrast, the relative abundance of oligotrophic taxa such as Actinobacteria, Alpha-proteobacteria, Planctomycetes, and Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, increased during the prolonged drought. Interestingly, fungi were shown to be more sensitive to the prolonged drought and to rainfall treatment than bacteria with Basidiomycota mostly dominant in the reduced rainfall treatment. Moreover, correlation network analyses showed more positive associations among stress-tolerant dominant taxa following the drought (i.e., 2019 compared with 2016). Our result indicates that such stress-tolerant taxa play an important role in how whole communities respond to changes in aridity. Such knowledge provides a better understanding of microbial responses to predicted increases in rainfall variability and the impact on the functioning of semi-arid and arid ecosystems.

Synchrony matters more than species richness in plant community stability at a global scale.

The stability of ecological communities is critical for the stable provisioning of ecosystem services, such as food and forage production, carbon sequestration, and soil fertility. Greater biodiversity is expected to enhance stability across years by decreasing synchrony among species, but the drivers of stability in nature remain poorly resolved. Our analysis of time series from 79 datasets across the world showed that stability was associated more strongly with the degree of synchrony among dominant species than with species richness. The relatively weak influence of species richness is consistent with theory predicting that the effect of richness on stability weakens when synchrony is higher than expected under random fluctuations, which was the case in most communities. Land management, nutrient addition, and climate change treatments had relatively weak and varying effects on stability, modifying how species richness, synchrony, and stability interact. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of biotic drivers on ecosystem stability, with the potential for environmental drivers to alter the intricate relationship among richness, synchrony, and stability.

Changes in belowground biodiversity during ecosystem development.

Belowground organisms play critical roles in maintaining multiple ecosystem processes, including plant productivity, decomposition, and nutrient cycling. Despite their importance, however, we have a limited understanding of how and why belowground biodiversity (bacteria, fungi, protists, and invertebrates) may change as soils develop over centuries to millennia (pedogenesis). Moreover, it is unclear whether belowground biodiversity changes during pedogenesis are similar to the patterns observed for aboveground plant diversity. Here we evaluated the roles of resource availability, nutrient stoichiometry, and soil abiotic factors in driving belowground biodiversity across 16 soil chronosequences (from centuries to millennia) spanning a wide range of globally distributed ecosystem types. Changes in belowground biodiversity during pedogenesis followed two main patterns. In lower-productivity ecosystems (i.e., drier and colder), increases in belowground biodiversity tracked increases in plant cover. In more productive ecosystems (i.e., wetter and warmer), increased acidification during pedogenesis was associated with declines in belowground biodiversity. Changes in the diversity of bacteria, fungi, protists, and invertebrates with pedogenesis were strongly and positively correlated worldwide, highlighting that belowground biodiversity shares similar ecological drivers as soils and ecosystems develop. In general, temporal changes in aboveground plant diversity and belowground biodiversity were not correlated, challenging the common perception that belowground biodiversity should follow similar patterns to those of plant diversity during ecosystem development. Taken together, our findings provide evidence that ecological patterns in belowground biodiversity are predictable across major globally distributed ecosystem types and suggest that shifts in plant cover and soil acidification during ecosystem development are associated with changes in belowground biodiversity over centuries to millennia.

Roadside verges support greater ecosystem functions than adjacent agricultural land in a grassy woodland.

Vegetation clearance is the major land use change in agricultural landscape, where woody species are removed to support agricultural production. Native woody species are now largely restricted to the thin strips along the road (roadside verges). Despite the importance of roadside verges as refugia for native species, their impacts on ecological functions and the driving factors have been little explored over extensive areas, limiting our capacity to argue for the retention and improvement of these 'off-reserve' habitats within agroecosystems. We compared the magnitude of ecological functions between paired roadside verges and adjacent agricultural land at 111 sites along a vegetation condition gradient in eastern Australia to examine the ecological importance of roadside verges and the potential regulators. Eighty-six percent of our 21 ecological attributes differed between roadsides and adjacent agricultural land, with roadside verges supporting greater carbon stocks, vegetation coverage, plant diversity, habitat complexity and tree recruitment, and were subject to less modification and erosion. These ecological effects strengthened with increasing roadside verge width, particularly for plant cover and diversity, the proportion of native plant species and habitat complexity. Management practices were major regulators of roadside functions, with roadside verge width and site modification negatively associated with tree recruitment and the soil organic carbon pool. Site modification and roadside verge width also indirectly reduced the soil organic carbon pool by either suppressing tree diversity or promoting the proportion of native plant species. Our study provides empirical evidence of the ecological importance of roadside verges in maintaining ecosystem functions and the sustainability of native plant communities in peri-agricultural landscapes. Our study also demonstrates the negative effects of site modification on tree recruitment and soil organic carbon pools, highlighting the importance of mitigating management activities (e.g., tree removal, fire, grazing) in the conservation of roadside verges.

Remove or retain: ecosystem effects of woody encroachment and removal are linked to plant structural and functional traits.

The impacts of woody encroachment and removal on ecosystems are highly variable and are thought to be related to the traits of the individual woody species. Decisions on whether to remove or to retain woody plants are hampered by a lack of empirical evidence of the relationship between woody traits and the ecosystem consequences of their removal or retention. We used a global meta-analysis of 149 ecosystem attributes from 172 woody species to evaluate the relative effects of woody plant traits and abiotic environmental variables on the ecosystem consequences of woody encroachment and removal. The ecosystem consequences were closely related to woody plant traits. For example, encroachment of plants characterized by high structural traits (e.g. tall, mixed tap and fibrous roots) reduced ecosystem composition, while removal of plants characterized by high functional traits (e.g. nitrogen fixing, deciduous) reduced ecosystem function. Structural and functional traits of woody plants mainly regulated soil stability during woody encroachment and herbaceous cover after woody removal. Conversely, environmental conditions mainly affected herbaceous cover under encroachment and soil stability under removal scenarios. We demonstrate that the ecosystem consequences of encroachment and removal are closely linked to the structural and functional traits of the target woody species. Furthermore, biotic (woody plant traits) and abiotic (climate, soils) factors have different impacts on regulating trade-offs between ecosystem responses under these two management scenarios. Our study provides empirical support for management decisions on whether to retain or remove different woody taxa under various environments across the globe.

Global diversity and ecological drivers of lichenised soil fungi.

Lichens play crucial roles in sustaining the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems; however, the diversity and ecological factors associated with lichenised soil fungi remain poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we used a global field survey including information on fungal sequences of topsoils from 235 terrestrial ecosystems. We identified 880 lichenised fungal phylotypes across nine biomes ranging from deserts to tropical forests. The diversity and proportion of lichenised soil fungi peaked in shrublands and dry grasslands. Aridity index, plant cover and soil pH were the most important factors associated with the distribution of lichenised soil fungi. Furthermore, we identified Endocarpon, Verrucaria and Rinodina as some of the most dominant lichenised genera across the globe, and they had similar environmental preferences to the lichenised fungal community. In addition, precipitation seasonality and mean diurnal temperature range were also important in predicting the proportion of these dominant genera. Using this information, we were able to create the first global maps of the richness and the proportion of dominant genera of lichenised fungi. This work provides new insight into the global distribution and ecological preferences of lichenised soil fungi, and supports their dominance in drylands across the globe.

Biogeography of global drylands.

Despite their extent and socio-ecological importance, a comprehensive biogeographical synthesis of drylands is lacking. Here we synthesize the biogeography of key organisms (vascular and nonvascular vegetation and soil microorganisms), attributes (functional traits, spatial patterns, plant-plant and plant-soil interactions) and processes (productivity and land cover) across global drylands. These areas have a long evolutionary history, are centers of diversification for many plant lineages and include important plant diversity hotspots. This diversity captures a strikingly high portion of the variation in leaf functional diversity observed globally. Part of this functional diversity is associated with the large variation in response and effect traits in the shrubs encroaching dryland grasslands. Aridity and its interplay with the traits of interacting plant species largely shape biogeographical patterns in plant-plant and plant-soil interactions, and in plant spatial patterns. Aridity also drives the composition of biocrust communities and vegetation productivity, which shows large geographical variation. We finish our review by discussing major research gaps, which include: studying regular vegetation spatial patterns; establishing large-scale plant and biocrust field surveys assessing individual-level trait measurements; knowing whether the impacts of plant-plant and plant-soil interactions on biodiversity are predictable; and assessing how elevated CO2 modulates future aridity conditions and plant productivity.

Climatic vulnerabilities and ecological preferences of soil invertebrates across biomes.

Unlike plants and vertebrates, the ecological preferences, and potential vulnerabilities of soil invertebrates to environmental change, remain poorly understood in terrestrial ecosystems globally. We conducted a cross-biome survey including 83 locations across six continents to advance our understanding of the ecological preferences and vulnerabilities of the diversity of dominant and functionally important soil invertebrate taxa, including nematodes, arachnids and rotifers. The diversity of invertebrates was analyzed through amplicon sequencing. Vegetation and climate drove the diversity and dominant taxa of soil invertebrates. Our results suggest that declines in forest cover and plant diversity, and reductions in plant production associated with increases in aridity, can result in reductions of the diversity of soil invertebrates in a drier and more managed world. We further developed global atlases of the diversity of these important soil invertebrates, which were cross-validated using an independent database. Our study advances the current knowledge of the ecological preferences and vulnerabilities of the diversity and presence of functionally important soil invertebrates in soils from across the globe. This information is fundamental for improving and prioritizing conservation efforts of soil genetic resources and management policies.

Multiple trade-offs regulate the effects of woody plant removal on biodiversity and ecosystem functions in global rangelands.

Woody plant encroachment is a major land management issue. Woody removal often aims to restore the original grassy ecosystem, but few studies have assessed the role of woody removal on ecosystem functions and biodiversity at global scales. We collected data from 140 global studies and evaluated how different woody plant removal methods affected biodiversity (plant and animal diversity) and ecosystem functions (plant production, hydrological function, soil carbon) across global rangelands. Our results indicate that the impact of removal is strongly context dependent, varying with the specific response variable, removal method, and traits of the target species. Over all treatments, woody plant removal increased grass biomass and total groundstorey diversity. Physical and chemical removal methods increased grass biomass and total groundstorey biomass (i.e., non-woody plants, including grass biomass), but burning reduced animal diversity. The impact of different treatment methods declined with time since removal, particularly for total groundstorey biomass. Removing pyramid-shaped woody plants increased total groundstorey biomass and hydrological function but reduced total groundstorey diversity. Environmental context (e.g., aridity and soil texture) indirectly controlled the effect of removal on biomass and biodiversity by influencing plant traits such as plant shape, allelopathic, or roots types. Our study demonstrates that a one-size-fits-all approach to woody plant removal is not appropriate, and that consideration of woody plant identity, removal method, and environmental context is critical for optimizing removal outcomes. Applying this knowledge is fundamental for maintaining diverse and functional rangeland ecosystems as we move toward a drier and more variable climate.

The pervasive and multifaceted influence of biocrusts on water in the world's drylands.

The capture and use of water are critically important in drylands, which collectively constitute Earth's largest biome. Drylands will likely experience lower and more unreliable rainfall as climatic conditions change over the next century. Dryland soils support a rich community of microphytic organisms (biocrusts), which are critically important because they regulate the delivery and retention of water. Yet despite their hydrological significance, a global synthesis of their effects on hydrology is lacking. We synthesized 2,997 observations from 109 publications to explore how biocrusts affected five hydrological processes (times to ponding and runoff, early [sorptivity] and final [infiltration] stages of water flow into soil, and the rate or volume of runoff) and two hydrological outcomes (moisture storage, sediment production). We found that increasing biocrust cover reduced the time for water to pond on the surface (-40%) and commence runoff (-33%), and reduced infiltration (-34%) and sediment production (-68%). Greater biocrust cover had no significant effect on sorptivity or runoff rate/amount, but increased moisture storage (+14%). Infiltration declined most (-56%) at fine scales, and moisture storage was greatest (+36%) at large scales. Effects of biocrust type (cyanobacteria, lichen, moss, mixed), soil texture (sand, loam, clay), and climatic zone (arid, semiarid, dry subhumid) were nuanced. Our synthesis provides novel insights into the magnitude, processes, and contexts of biocrust effects in drylands. This information is critical to improve our capacity to manage dwindling dryland water supplies as Earth becomes hotter and drier.

The influence of climatic legacies on the distribution of dryland biocrust communities.

Predicting the distribution of biocrust species, mosses, lichens and liverworts associated with surface soils is difficult, but climatic legacies (changes in climate over the last 20 k years) can improve our prediction of the distribution of biocrust species. To provide empirical support for this hypothesis, we used a combination of network analyses and structural equation modelling to identify the role of climatic legacies in predicting the distribution of ecological clusters formed by species of mosses, lichens and liverworts using data from 282 large sites distributed across 0.6 million km2 of eastern Australia. Two ecological clusters contained 87% of the 120 moss, lichen and liverwort species. Both clusters contained lichen, moss and liverwort species, but were dominated by different families. Sites where the air temperature increased the most over 20k years (positive temperature legacies) were associated with reductions in the relative abundance of species from the lichen (Peltulaceae and Teloschistaceae) and moss (Bryaceae) families (Cluster A species), greater groundstorey plant cover and lower soil pH. Sites where precipitation has increased over the past 20k years (positive precipitation legacy) were associated with increases in the relative abundance of lichen (Cladoniaceae, Lecideaceae and Thelotremataceae) and moss (Pottiaceae) families (Cluster B species) and lower levels of soil pH. Sites where temperatures have increased the most in the past 20k years suppressed the negative effects of plant cover on Cluster B by reducing plant cover. Increased intensity of grazing suppressed the negative effect of soil pH and the positive effect of soil carbon, on the relative abundance of Cluster B taxa. Finally, increasing temperature and precipitation legacies reduced the negative effect of soil pH on Cluster B. Understanding of the importance of climatic legacies improves our ability to predict how biocrust assemblies might respond to ongoing global environmental change associated with increasing land use intensification, increasing temperature and reduced rainfall.

Decoupling of soil nutrient cycles as a function of aridity in global drylands.

The biogeochemical cycles of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are interlinked by primary production, respiration and decomposition in terrestrial ecosystems. It has been suggested that the C, N and P cycles could become uncoupled under rapid climate change because of the different degrees of control exerted on the supply of these elements by biological and geochemical processes. Climatic controls on biogeochemical cycles are particularly relevant in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid ecosystems (drylands) because their biological activity is mainly driven by water availability. The increase in aridity predicted for the twenty-first century in many drylands worldwide may therefore threaten the balance between these cycles, differentially affecting the availability of essential nutrients. Here we evaluate how aridity affects the balance between C, N and P in soils collected from 224 dryland sites from all continents except Antarctica. We find a negative effect of aridity on the concentration of soil organic C and total N, but a positive effect on the concentration of inorganic P. Aridity is negatively related to plant cover, which may favour the dominance of physical processes such as rock weathering, a major source of P to ecosystems, over biological processes that provide more C and N, such as litter decomposition. Our findings suggest that any predicted increase in aridity with climate change will probably reduce the concentrations of N and C in global drylands, but increase that of P. These changes would uncouple the C, N and P cycles in drylands and could negatively affect the provision of key services provided by these ecosystems.

Risks to carbon dynamics in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia under current and future climates.

Extreme disturbance events, such as wildfire and drought, have large impacts on carbon storage and sequestration of forests and woodlands globally. Here, we present a modelling approach that assesses the relative impact of disturbances on carbon storage and sequestration, and how this will alter under climate change. Our case study is semi-arid Australia where large areas of land are managed to offset over 122 million tonnes of anthropogenic carbon emissions over a 100-year period. These carbon offsets include mature vegetation that has been protected from clearing and regenerating vegetation on degraded agricultural land. We use a Bayesian Network model to combine multiple probabilistic models of the risk posed by fire, drought, grazing and recruitment failure to carbon dynamics. The model is parameterised from a review of relevant literature and additional quantitative analyses presented here. We found that the risk of vegetation becoming a net source of carbon due to a mortality event, or failing to realise maximum sequestration potential, through recruitment failure in regenerating vegetation, was primarily a function of rainfall in this semi-arid environment. However, the relative size of an emissions event varied across vegetation communities depending on plant attributes, specifically resprouting capacity. Modelled climate change effects were variable, depending on the climate change projection used. Under 'best-case' or 'most-likely' climate scenarios for 2050, similar or increased projections of mean annual precipitation, associated with a build-up of fuel, were expected to drive an increase in fire activity (a 40-160% increase), but a decrease in drought (a 20-35% decrease). Under a 'worst-case' climate scenario, fire activity was expected to decline (a 37% decrease), but drought conditions remain similar (a 5% decrease). These projected changes to the frequency of drought and fire increase the risk that vegetation used for carbon offsetting will fail to provide anticipated amounts of carbon abatement over their lifetime.