Past trends and future projections of palliative care needs in Chile: analysis of routinely available death registry and population data.

BACKGROUND: The number of people with palliative care needs is projected to increase globally. Chile has recently introduced legislation for universal access to palliative care services for patients with severe and terminal illnesses, including non-cancer conditions. We aimed to estimate the number of people affected by serious health-related suffering and need for palliative care in Chile to 2050. METHODS: We used data on all deaths registered in Chile between 1997-2019 and population estimates for 1997-2050. We used Poisson regression to model past trends in causes of death adjusted by age, sex and population estimates, to project the number of deaths for each cause from 2021 to 2050. We applied the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief weights to these projections to identify decedents and non-decedents with palliative care needs. RESULTS: Population palliative care needs in Chile are projected to increase from 117 (95% CI 114 to 120) thousand people in 2021 to 209 (95% CI 198 to 223) thousand people in 2050, a 79% increase (IRR 1.79; 95% CI 1.78-1.80). This increase will be driven by non-cancer conditions, particularly dementia (IRR 2.9, 95% CI 2.85-2.95) and cardiovascular conditions (IRR 1.86, 95% CI 1.83-1.89). By 2050, 50% of those estimated to need palliative care will be non-decedents (not expected to die within a year). CONCLUSIONS: Chile will experience a large increase in palliative care needs, particularly for people with dementia and other non-cancer conditions. Improved availability of high-quality services, expanded clinician training and new sustainable models of care are urgently required to ensure universal access to palliative care.

Total uncertainty: a systematic review and thematic synthesis of experiences of uncertainty in older people with advanced multimorbidity, their informal carers and health professionals.

OBJECTIVES: uncertainty pervades the complex illness trajectories experienced by older adults with multimorbidity. Uncertainty is experienced by older people, their informal carers and professionals providing care, yet is incompletely understood. We aimed to identify and synthesise systematically the experience of uncertainty in advanced multimorbidity from patient, carer and professional perspectives. DESIGN: systematic literature review of published and grey qualitative literature from 9 databases (Prospero CRD 42021227480). PARTICIPANTS: older people with advanced multimorbidity, and informal carers/professionals providing care to this group. Exclusion criteria: early multimorbidity, insufficient focus on uncertainty. ANALYSIS: weight-of-evidence assessment was used to appraise included articles. We undertook thematic synthesis of multi-perspective experiences and response to uncertainty. RESULTS: from 4,738 unique search results, we included 44 articles relating to 40 studies. 22 focused on patient experiences of uncertainty (n = 460), 15 on carer experiences (n = 197), and 19 on health professional experiences (n = 490), with 10 exploring multiple perspectives. We identified a shared experience of 'Total Uncertainty' across five domains: 'appraising and managing multiple illnesses'; 'fragmented care and communication'; 'feeling overwhelmed'; 'uncertainty of others' and 'continual change'. Participants responded to uncertainty by either active (addressing, avoiding) or passive (accepting) means. CONCLUSIONS: the novel concept of 'Total Uncertainty' represents a step change in our understanding of illness experience in advanced multimorbidity. Patients, carers and health professionals experienced uncertainty in similar domains, suggesting a shared understanding is feasible. The domains of total uncertainty form a useful organising framework for health professionals caring for older adults with multimorbidity.

Factors associated with hospitalisations of patients with chronic heart failure approaching the end of life: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure has high mortality and is linked to substantial burden for patients, carers and health care systems. Patients with chronic heart failure frequently experience recurrent hospitalisations peaking at the end of life, but most prefer to avoid hospital. The drivers of hospitalisations are not well understood. AIM: We aimed to synthesise the evidence on factors associated with all-cause and heart failure hospitalisations of patients with advanced chronic heart failure. DESIGN: Systematic review of studies quantitatively evaluating factors associated with all-cause or heart failure hospitalisations in adult patients with advanced chronic heart failure. DATA SOURCES: Five electronic databases were searched from inception to September 2020. Additionally, searches for grey literature, citation searching and hand-searching were performed. We assessed the quality of individual studies using the QualSyst tool. Strength of evidence was determined weighing number, quality and consistency of studies. Findings are reported narratively as pooling was not deemed feasible. RESULTS: In 54 articles, 68 individual, illness-level, service-level and environmental factors were identified. We found high/moderate strength evidence for specialist palliative or hospice care being associated with reduced risk of all-cause and heart failure hospitalisations, respectively. Based on high strength evidence, we further identified black/non-white ethnicity as a risk factor for all-cause hospitalisations. CONCLUSION: Efforts to integrate hospice and specialist palliative services into care may reduce avoidable hospitalisations in advanced heart failure. Inequalities in end-of-life care in terms of race/ethnicity should be addressed. Further research should investigate the causality of the relationships identified here.

Uncertainty in multimorbidity: a shared experience we should recognise, acknowledge and communicate.

Multimorbidity is increasingly common and inevitably results in uncertainties about health, care and the future. Such uncertainties may be experienced by patients, carers and health professionals. Given the ubiquitous presence of uncertainty, all professionals should be prepared to approach and address it in clinical practice. Uncertainty in multimorbidity can rarely be eliminated, and so, must be carefully addressed and communicated; however, there is little evidence on how to approach it. Key areas are: recognising the existence of uncertainty, acknowledging it, and communicating to achieve a shared understanding. Evaluation of what has been discussed, and preparedness to repeat such conversations are also important. Future research should explore optimal communication of uncertainty in multimorbidity.

Patient and public involvement in palliative care research: What works, and why? A qualitative evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Public involvement is increasingly considered a prerequisite for high-quality research. However, involvement in palliative care is impeded by limited evidence on the best approaches for populations affected by life-limiting illness. AIM: To evaluate a strategy for public involvement in palliative care and rehabilitation research, to identify successful approaches and areas for improvement. DESIGN: Co-produced qualitative evaluation using focus groups and interviews. Thematic analysis undertaken by research team comprising public contributors and researchers. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Researchers and public members from a palliative care and rehabilitation research institute, UK. RESULTS: Seven public members and 19 researchers participated. Building and maintaining relationships, taking a flexible approach and finding the 'right' people were important for successful public involvement. Relationship building created a safe environment for discussing sensitive topics, although public members felt greater consideration of emotional support was needed. Flexibility supported involvement alongside unpredictable circumstances of chronic and life-limiting illness, and was facilitated by responsive communication, and opportunities for in-person and virtual involvement at a project- and institution-level. However, more opportunities for two-way feedback throughout projects was suggested. Finding the 'right' people was crucial given the diverse population served by palliative care, and participants suggested more care needed to be taken to identify public members with experience relevant to specific projects. CONCLUSION: Within palliative care research, it is important for involvement to focus on building and maintaining relationships, working flexibly, and identifying those with relevant experience. Taking a strategic approach and developing adequate infrastructure and networks can facilitate public involvement within this field.

Factors associated with older people's emergency department attendance towards the end of life: a systematic review.

Background: Emergency department (ED) attendance for older people towards the end of life is common and increasing, despite most preferring home-based care. We aimed to review the factors associated with older people's ED attendance towards the end of life. Methods: Systematic review using Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, CINAHL and Web of Science from inception to March 2017. Included studies quantitatively examined factors associated with ED attendance for people aged ≥65 years within the last year of life. We assessed study quality using the QualSyst tool and determined evidence strength based on quality, quantity and consistency. We narratively synthesized the quantitative findings. Results: Of 3824 publications identified, 21 were included, combining data from 1 565 187 participants. 17/21 studies were from the USA and 19/21 used routinely collected data. We identified 47 factors and 21 were included in the final model. We found high strength evidence for associations between ED attendance and palliative/hospice care (adjusted effect estimate range: 0.1-0.94); non-white ethnicity (1.03-2.16); male gender (1.04-1.83, except 0.70 in one sub-sample) and rural areas (0.98-1.79). The final model included socio-demographic, illness and service factors, with largest effect sizes for service factors. Conclusions: In this synthesis, receiving palliative care was associated with lower ED attendance in the last year of life for older adults. This has implications for service models for older people nearing the end of life. However, there is limited evidence from European countries and none from low or middle-income countries, which warrants further research.

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

BACKGROUND: Population ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care. AIM: To project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales. DESIGN: Population-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions of deaths in hospital, care home, home, hospice and 'other' were applied to numbers of expected future deaths. Setting/population: All deaths (2004-2014) from death registration data and predicted deaths (2015-2040) from official population forecasts in England and Wales. RESULTS: Annual deaths are projected to increase from 501,424 in 2014 (38.8% aged 85 years and over) to 635,814 in 2040 (53.6% aged 85 years and over). Between 2004 and 2014, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (18.3%-22.9% and 16.7%- 21.2%) while hospital deaths declined (57.9%-48.1%). If current trends continue, numbers of deaths in care homes and homes will increase by 108.1% and 88.6%, with care home the most common place of death by 2040. If care home capacity does not expand and additional deaths occur in hospital, hospital deaths will start rising by 2023. CONCLUSION: To sustain current trends, end-of-life care provision in care homes and the community needs to double by 2040. An infrastructure across care settings that supports rising annual deaths is urgently needed; otherwise, hospital deaths will increase.

How does uncertainty shape patient experience in advanced illness? A secondary analysis of qualitative data.

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty is common in advanced illness but is infrequently studied in this context. If poorly addressed, uncertainty can lead to adverse patient outcomes. AIM: We aimed to understand patient experiences of uncertainty in advanced illness and develop a typology of patients' responses and preferences to inform practice. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of qualitative interview transcripts. Studies were assessed for inclusion and interviews were sampled using maximum-variation sampling. Analysis used a thematic approach with 10% of coding cross-checked to enhance reliability. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Qualitative interviews from six studies including patients with heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal disease, cancer and liver failure. RESULTS: A total of 30 transcripts were analysed. Median age was 75 (range, 43-95), 12 patients were women. The impact of uncertainty was frequently discussed: the main related themes were engagement with illness, information needs, patient priorities and the period of time that patients mainly focused their attention on (temporal focus). A typology of patient responses to uncertainty was developed from these themes. CONCLUSION: Uncertainty influences patient experience in advanced illness through affecting patients' information needs, preferences and future priorities for care. Our typology aids understanding of how patients with advanced illness respond to uncertainty. Assessment of these three factors may be a useful starting point to guide clinical assessment and shared decision making.

Qualified and motivated, but limited by specialty-specific barriers: a national survey of UK Palliative Medicine consultants research experience.

OBJECTIVES: Providing high-quality safe palliative care requires high-quality clinically driven research. Little is known about how to optimise clinical research capacity in this field.To understand interest and capacity to conduct clinical research in palliative medicine and identify key facilitators and barriers, by surveying palliative medicine consultants and academic trainees. METHODS: National online survey exploring experience in conducting research, including facilitators and barriers. Sent to all current UK palliative medicine consultants, and previous/current academic trainees. Descriptive statistics are reported with framework analysis of free text responses. RESULTS: 195 surveys were submitted including 15 respondents with Integrated Academic Training (IAT) experience. 78% (n=140/180) of consultants were interested in conducting research. Despite this enthusiasm, 83% had no allocated time within their job plan. 88% of those who undertook IAT would recommend IAT, but 60% reported difficulty transitioning from academic trainee to research active consultant.Barriers to research included; insufficient research culture and integration, with small teams working in a mixture of National Health Service (NHS) and non-NHS settings, leading to isolated, silo working. Even those who had undertaken IAT, felt a 'cliff edge' in opportunities after completing IAT. Filling service gaps was routinely prioritised over research activity. CONCLUSION: Palliative medicine consultants, including those who have completed academic training want to conduct research but overwhelming barriers limit activity. A palliative care-specific strategy that permeates different palliative care settings, promotes interspecialty collaboration and improves the current infrastructure for palliative care research to maximise gains from IAT and embed a research culture are suggested.

Uncertainty in serious illness: A national interdisciplinary consensus exercise to identify clinical research priorities.

BACKGROUND: Serious illness is characterised by uncertainty, particularly in older age groups. Uncertainty may be experienced by patients, family carers, and health professionals about a broad variety of issues. There are many evidence gaps regarding the experience and management of uncertainty. AIM: We aimed to identify priority research areas concerning uncertainty in serious illness, to ensure that future research better meets the needs of those affected by uncertainty and reduce research inefficiencies. METHODS: Rapid prioritisation workshop comprising five focus groups to identify research areas, followed by a ranking exercise to prioritise them. Participants were healthcare professionals caring for those with serious illnesses including geriatrics, palliative care, intensive care; researchers; patient/carer representatives, and policymakers. Descriptive analysis of ranking data and qualitative framework analysis of focus group transcripts was undertaken. RESULTS: Thirty-four participants took part; 67% female, mean age 47 (range 33-67). The highest priority was communication of uncertainty, ranked first by 15 participants (overall ranking score 1.59/3). Subsequent priorities were: 2) How to cope with uncertainty; 3) healthcare professional education/training; 4) Optimising clinical approaches to uncertainty; and 5) exploring in-depth experiences of uncertainty. Research questions regarding optimal management of uncertainty were given higher priority than questions about experiences of uncertainty and its impact. CONCLUSIONS: These co-produced, clinically-focused research priorities map out key evidence gaps concerning uncertainty in serious illness. Managing uncertainty is the most pressing issue, and researchers should prioritise how to optimally manage uncertainty in order to reduce distress, unlock decision paralysis and improve illness and care experience.

Anticipatory prescribing in community end-of-life care: systematic review and narrative synthesis of the evidence since 2017.

BACKGROUND: The anticipatory prescribing of injectable medications is recommended practice in controlling distressing symptoms in the last days of life. A 2017 systematic review found practice and guidance was based on inadequate evidence. Since then, there has been considerable additional research, warranting a new review. AIM: To review the evidence published since 2017 concerning anticipatory prescribing of injectable medications for adults at the end-of-life in the community, to inform practice and guidance. DESIGN: Systematic review and narrative synthesis. METHODS: Nine literature databases were searched from May 2017 to March 2022, alongside reference, citation and journal hand-searches. Gough's Weight of Evidence framework was used to appraise included studies. RESULTS: Twenty-eight papers were included in the synthesis. Evidence published since 2017 shows that standardised prescribing of four medications for anticipated symptoms is commonplace in the UK; evidence of practices in other countries is limited. There is limited data on how often medications are administered in the community. Prescriptions are 'accepted' by family caregivers despite inadequate explanations and they generally appreciate having access to medications. Robust evidence of the clinical and cost-effectiveness of anticipatory prescribing remains absent. CONCLUSION: The evidence underpinning anticipatory prescribing practice and policy remains based primarily on healthcare professionals' perceptions that the intervention is reassuring, provides effective, timely symptom relief in the community and prevents crisis hospital admissions. There is still inadequate evidence regarding optimal medications and dose ranges, and the effectiveness of these prescriptions. Patient and family caregiver experiences of anticipatory prescriptions warrant urgent investigation. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42016052108.

Virtual reality reduces anxiety and pain in acute hospital palliative care: service evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: Virtual reality (VR) might improve symptom management, but there is limited evidence regarding VR in palliative care. We evaluated the feasibility of VR and impact on anxiety and pain for patients in a hospital palliative care consultation service. METHODS: Patients referred to a hospital specialist palliative care team, with anxiety or pain, were offered a VR intervention (a short audiovisual experience). Participants rated anxiety and pain on a 0-10 Likert severity scale pre intervention/post intervention and completed an evaluation form. Change in symptom scores was analysed by parametric statistics. RESULTS: 28 participants used VR a total of 42 times with no adverse events. Mean pain score reduced by 29% from 4.10 (SD=2.71) pre intervention to 2.93 (SD=2.45) post intervention (t(27)=5.150, p<0.001). Mean anxiety scores reduced by 40% from 4.43 (SD=2.56) to 2.65 (SD=2.24) (t(27)=5.058, p<0.001). Patients rated the experience on average 4.75/5 and all would recommend use to a friend. VR was described as absorbing and relaxing. CONCLUSION: VR may improve anxiety and pain and was acceptable in this setting. Large-scale evaluation will generate important data on feasibility and implementation.

Implementing patient-centred outcome measures in palliative care clinical practice for adults (IMPCOM): Protocol for an update systematic review of facilitators and barriers.

Background: Despite the development of patient-centred or patient-reported outcome measures (PCOMs or PROMs) in palliative and end-of-life care over recent years, their routine use in practice faces continuing challenges. Objective: To update a highly cited literature review, identify and synthesise new evidence on facilitators, barriers, lessons learned, PCOMs used, models of implementation, implementation outcomes, costs, and consequences of implementing PCOMs in palliative care clinical practice. Methods: We will search MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Embase, Emcare, SCI-Expanded, SSCI, ESCI, and BNI. The database search will be supplemented by a list of studies from the expert advisory committee, hand-searching of reference lists for included articles, and citations of the original review. We will include primary studies using a PCOM during clinical care of adult patients with advanced disease in palliative care settings and extract data on reported models of implementation, PCOMs, facilitators, barriers, lessons learned, costs, and implementation outcomes. Gough's Weight of Evidence Framework will be used to assess the robustness and relevance of the studies. We will narratively synthesise and tabulate the findings. This review will follow PRISMA, PRISMA-Abstract, PRISMA-P, and PRISMA-Search as the reporting guidelines. Source of funding: Marie Curie. The funder is not involved in designing or conducting this study. Protocol registration: CRD42023398653 (13/02/2023).

Terminal sedation: an emotional decision in end-of-life care.

A patient with end-stage motor neurone disease was admitted for hospice care with worsening bulbar symptoms. Although he initially walked onto the ward he became very distressed and asked for sedation. After much discussion, this man was deeply sedated, and after some harrowing days, died. Was it right to provide terminal sedation? What should the threshold be for such treatment? How should our personal reservations affect how we approach the distressed patient in an end-of-life situation?

UK Palliative trainees Research Collaborative (UK-PRC): the first 5 years - 0-100 study sites.

OBJECTIVES: Palliative care research suffers from underfunding and a workforce spread across multiple settings leading to a lack of large-scale studies. To facilitate multisite research and audit we set up the UK Palliative trainees Research Collaborative (UKPRC), the first national trainee-led audit and research collaborative in palliative care. Here, we critically review the progress and potential of the UKPRC since its inception in 2016, identifying key challenges and facilitators. Members of the UKPRC steering committee collaborated to write this reflection, reviewing existing evidence regarding trainee-led research collaboratives. FINDINGS: The UKPRC has representation from 16/19 UK training regions. Projects are run by a core team; local collaborators collect data at each site. The collaborative is supported by academic leads and newly qualified consultants to develop a culture of continuous improvement in practice. We have conducted four national projects to date, including an audit covering 119 sites. Facilitators for our work include a focus on inclusivity and national representation; support from recently qualified consultants to ensure continuity; and taking a pragmatic approach, focusing initially on straightforward projects to build momentum. Challenges include the step from national audit to multisite, patient-facing research and maintaining continuity in a membership with high turnover. CONCLUSIONS: There is potential to change practice through large scale data collection via the trainee-led collaborative model. Collaboration is especially important in a small specialty with limited resources. The UKPRC has demonstrated 'proof of concept' and has the potential to support and sustain a culture where research can flourish within palliative care.

Disability in Basic Activities of Daily Living Is Associated With Symptom Burden in Older People With Advanced Cancer or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Secondary Data Analysis.

CONTEXT: Managing activities of daily living is important to people with advanced cancer or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Understanding disability in activities of daily living may inform service planning. OBJECTIVE: To identify the prevalence of disability in activities of daily living, associations and change over time, in older people with advanced cancer or COPD. METHODS: Secondary analysis of International Access, Rights and Empowerment (IARE) studies in adults aged ≥65 years with advanced disease in the United Kingdom, Ireland, and United States, using cross-sectional (IARE I & II) and longitudinal (IARE II, 3 timepoints over 6 months) data. Measures included disability in activities of daily living (Barthel Index), symptom severity (Palliative Outcome Scale), and assistive device use (self-reported). Logistic regression was used to identify relationships between disability and age, sex, living alone, diagnosis, and symptom burden; visual graphical analysis explores individual disability trajectories. RESULTS: One hundred fifty-nine participants were included (140 cancer, 19 COPD). Sixty-five percent had difficulty climbing stairs, 48% bathing, 39% dressing, and 36% mobilizing. Increased disability was independently associated with increased symptom burden (odds ratio, 1.08 [95% CI:1.02-1.15], P = 0.01) and walking unaided (z = 2.35, P = 0.02), but not with primary diagnosis (z = -0.47, P = 0.64). Disability generally increased over time but with wide interindividual variation. CONCLUSION: Disability in activities of daily living in advanced cancer or COPD is common, associated with increased symptom burden, and may be attenuated by use of assistive devices. Individual disability trajectories vary widely, with diverse disability profiles. Services should include rehabilitative interventions, guided by disability in individual activities of daily living.