Incidence and prevalence of heart failure in England: a descriptive analysis of linked primary and secondary care data - the PULSE study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is associated with high morbidity and mortality, yet data on HF subtype (HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF] and preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF]) in broad populations are lacking. Additionally, it is unknown whether current HF incidence and prevalence rates are consistent with historical data. Here, we estimate the incidence and prevalence of HF in England and describe the characteristics of patients with HF, both overall and by subtype. METHODS: This was a non-interventional cohort study based on data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data and Office for National Statistics mortality data. Patients aged ≥ 18 years who were registered in the CPRD Aurum database between 1st January 2015 and 31st December 2019 formed the base cohort, from which patients with a recorded chronic HF diagnosis (historical or incident) from 2015-2019 contributed to the incidence and prevalence calculations. RESULTS: The eligible denominator over the study period comprised 11,414,490 patients, from which 383,896 patients with HF were included as prevalent or incident HF cases. From 2015 to 2019, the incidence rate of newly diagnosed HF increased from 4.1/1,000 person-years to 4.9/1,000 person-years, and HF prevalence increased from 2.1% to 2.4%. Phenotype data were available for 100,224 (26.1%) patients, of which 68,780 patients had HFrEF and 31,444 had HFpEF (HFrEF/HFpEF ratio: 70.1%/29.9%). Comorbidity levels were high and broadly similar across HF subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care recording of HF subtype is suboptimal, with more than 7/10 patients with HF lacking subtype data. In patients with a recorded subtype (n = 100,224), a HFrEF/HFpEF ratio of 70%/30% was observed. Comorbidity levels were high regardless of subtype. Between 2015 and 2019, we observed modest but consistent increases in the incidence and prevalence of chronic HF in adults, in line with historical data.

Type 2 diabetes risks and determinants in second-generation migrants and mixed ethnicity people of South Asian and African Caribbean descent in the UK.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Excess risks of type 2 diabetes in UK South Asians (SA) and African Caribbeans (AC) compared with Europeans remain unexplained. We studied risks and determinants of type 2 diabetes in first- and second-generation (born in the UK) migrants, and in those of mixed ethnicity. METHODS: Data from the UK Biobank, a population-based cohort of ~500,000 participants aged 40-69 at recruitment, were used. Type 2 diabetes was assigned using self-report and HbA1c. Ethnicity was both self-reported and genetically assigned using admixture level scores. European, mixed European/South Asian (MixESA), mixed European/African Caribbean (MixEAC), SA and AC groups were analysed, matched for age and sex to enable comparison. In the frames of this cross-sectional study, we compared type 2 diabetes in second- vs first-generation migrants, and mixed ethnicity vs non-mixed groups. Risks and explanations were analysed using logistic regression and mediation analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Type 2 diabetes prevalence was markedly elevated in SA (599/3317 = 18%) and AC (534/4180 = 13%) compared with Europeans (140/3324 = 4%). Prevalence was lower in second- vs first-generation SA (124/1115 = 11% vs 155/1115 = 14%) and AC (163/2200 = 7% vs 227/2200 = 10%). Favourable adiposity (i.e. lower waist/hip ratio or BMI) contributed to lower risk in second-generation migrants. Type 2 diabetes in mixed populations (MixESA: 52/831 = 6%, MixEAC: 70/1045 = 7%) was lower than in comparator ethnic groups (SA: 18%, AC: 13%) and higher than in Europeans (4%). Greater socioeconomic deprivation accounted for 17% and 42% of the excess type 2 diabetes risk in MixESA and MixEAC compared with Europeans, respectively. Replacing self-reported with genetically assigned ethnicity corroborated the mixed ethnicity analysis. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Type 2 diabetes risks in second-generation SA and AC migrants are a fifth lower than in first-generation migrants. Mixed ethnicity risks were markedly lower than SA and AC groups, though remaining higher than in Europeans. Distribution of environmental risk factors, largely obesity and socioeconomic status, appears to play a key role in accounting for ethnic differences in type 2 diabetes risk.

Metformin Treatment Among Men With Diabetes and the Risk of Prostate Cancer: A Population-Based Historical Cohort Study.

There is conflicting evidence regarding the association between metformin treatment and prostate cancer risk in diabetic men. We investigated this association in a population-based Israeli cohort of 145,617 men aged 21-89 years with incident diabetes who were followed over the period 2002-2012. We implemented a time-dependent covariate Cox model, using weighted cumulative exposure to relate metformin history to prostate cancer risk, adjusting for use of other glucose-lowering medications, age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. To adjust for time-varying glucose control variables, we used inverse probability weighting of a marginal structural model. With 666,553 person-years of follow-up, 1,592 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer. Metformin exposure in the previous year was positively associated with prostate cancer risk (per defined daily dose; without adjustment for glucose control, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.53 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.96); with adjustment, HR = 1.42 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.94)). However, exposure during the previous 2-7 years was negatively associated with risk (without adjustment for glucose control, HR = 0.58 (95% CI: 0.37, 0.93); with adjustment, HR = 0.60 (95% CI: 0.33, 1.09)). These positive and negative associations with previous-year and earlier metformin exposure, respectively, need to be confirmed and better understood.

Cytomegalovirus Antibody Responses Associated With Increased Risk of Tuberculosis Disease in Ugandan Adults.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence highlights human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and immune activation as risk factors for tuberculosis disease. It is not known whether other herpesviruses are also implicated, nor whether a dose-response relationship exists between tuberculosis risk and herpes coinfection. METHODS: This nested case-control study used stored serum samples from 25 persons with tuberculosis up to 10 years before tuberculosis diagnosis and between 3 and 6 matched controls without tuberculosis from a rural Ugandan cohort. Samples were investigated for Epstein-Barr virus, herpes simplex virus, and HCMV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG), serum markers of inflammation, and mycobacterial antibody levels. RESULTS: Humoral response to HCMV, but not Epstein-Barr or herpes simplex virus, was associated with increased risk of active tuberculosis disease up to 10 years before diagnosis. Individuals with medium HCMV IgG were 2.8 times more likely to have tuberculosis (P = .055), and those with high HCMV IgG 3.4 times more likely to have tuberculosis (P = .007). Mycobacterial antibody levels were not associated with differences in odds of tuberculosis disease. Interferon-induced protein 10 was independently associated with increased odds of tuberculosis (odds ratio, 4.2; P = .009). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide evidence of a dose response between magnitude of HCMV IgG with risk of tuberculosis disease. An inflammatory environment, characterized by serum interferon-induced protein 10 and interleukin 1α, is independently associated with increased risk of tuberculosis disease.

Ethnic disparities in initiation and intensification of diabetes treatment in adults with type 2 diabetes in the UK, 1990-2017: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disproportionately affects individuals of nonwhite ethnic origin. Timely and appropriate initiation and intensification of glucose-lowering therapy is key to reducing the risk of major vascular outcomes. Given that ethnic inequalities in outcomes may stem from differences in therapeutic management, the aim of this study was to identify ethnic differences in the timeliness of initiation and intensification of glucose-lowering therapy in individuals newly diagnosed with T2DM in the United Kingdom. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An observational cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink was conducted using 162,238 adults aged 18 and over diagnosed with T2DM between 1990 and 2017 (mean age 62.7 years, 55.2% male); 93% were of white ethnicity (n = 150,754), 5% were South Asian (n = 8,139), and 2.1% were black (n = 3,345). Ethnic differences in time to initiation and intensification of diabetes treatment were estimated at three time points (initiation of noninsulin monotherapy, intensification to noninsulin combination therapy, and intensification to insulin therapy) using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for factors a priori hypothesised to be associated with initiation and intensification: age, sex, deprivation, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), body mass index (BMI), smoking status, comorbidities, consultations, medications, calendar year, and clustering by practice. Odds of experiencing therapeutic inertia (failure to intensify treatment within 12 months of HbA1c >7.5% [58 mmol/mol]), were estimated using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for the same hypothesised confounders. Noninsulin monotherapy was initiated earlier in South Asian and black groups (South Asian HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.08-1.36, p < 0.001; black HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.05-1.59, p = 0.017). Correspondingly, no ethnic differences in therapeutic inertia were evident at initiation. Intensification with noninsulin combination therapy was slower in both nonwhite ethnic groups relative to white (South Asian HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.87, p < 0.001; black HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.90, p < 0.001); treatment inertia at this stage was greater in nonwhite groups relative to white (South Asian odds ratio [OR] 1.45, 95% CI 1.23-1.70, p < 0.001; black OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87, p = 0.010). Intensification to insulin therapy was slower again for black groups relative to white groups (South Asian HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.41-0.58, p < 0.001; black HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.89, p = 0.012); correspondingly, treatment inertia was significantly higher in nonwhite groups at this stage relative to white groups (South Asian OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.89-3.80 p < 0.001; black OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.13-2.79, p = 0.013). At both stages of treatment intensification, nonwhite groups had fewer HbA1c measurements than white groups. Limitations included variable quality and completeness of routinely recorded data and a lack of information on medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: In this large UK cohort, we found persuasive evidence that South Asian and black groups intensified to noninsulin combination therapy and insulin therapy more slowly than white groups and experienced greater therapeutic inertia following identification of uncontrolled HbA1c. Reasons for delays are multifactorial and may, in part, be related to poorer long-term monitoring of risk factors in nonwhite groups. Initiatives to improve timely and appropriate intensification of diabetes treatment are key to reducing disparities in downstream vascular outcomes in these populations.

KEAP1-modifying small molecule reveals muted NRF2 signaling responses in neural stem cells from Huntington's disease patients.

The activity of the transcription factor nuclear factor-erythroid 2 p45-derived factor 2 (NRF2) is orchestrated and amplified through enhanced transcription of antioxidant and antiinflammatory target genes. The present study has characterized a triazole-containing inducer of NRF2 and elucidated the mechanism by which this molecule activates NRF2 signaling. In a highly selective manner, the compound covalently modifies a critical stress-sensor cysteine (C151) of the E3 ligase substrate adaptor protein Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1 (KEAP1), the primary negative regulator of NRF2. We further used this inducer to probe the functional consequences of selective activation of NRF2 signaling in Huntington's disease (HD) mouse and human model systems. Surprisingly, we discovered a muted NRF2 activation response in human HD neural stem cells, which was restored by genetic correction of the disease-causing mutation. In contrast, selective activation of NRF2 signaling potently repressed the release of the proinflammatory cytokine IL-6 in primary mouse HD and WT microglia and astrocytes. Moreover, in primary monocytes from HD patients and healthy subjects, NRF2 induction repressed expression of the proinflammatory cytokines IL-1, IL-6, IL-8, and TNFα. Together, our results demonstrate a multifaceted protective potential of NRF2 signaling in key cell types relevant to HD pathology.

Promises and pitfalls of electronic health record analysis.

Routinely collected electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used for research. With their use comes the opportunity for large-scale, high-quality studies that can address questions not easily answered by randomised clinical trials or classical cohort studies involving bespoke data collection. However, the use of EHRs generates challenges in terms of ensuring methodological rigour, a potential problem when studying complex chronic diseases such as diabetes. This review describes the promises and potential of EHRs in the context of diabetes research and outlines key areas for caution with examples. We consider the difficulties in identifying and classifying diabetes patients, in distinguishing between prevalent and incident cases and in dealing with the complexities of diabetes progression and treatment. We also discuss the dangers of introducing time-related biases and describe the problems of inconsistent data recording, missing data and confounding. Throughout, we provide practical recommendations for good practice in conducting EHR studies and interpreting their results.

Laquinimod dampens hyperactive cytokine production in Huntington's disease patient myeloid cells.

Huntington's disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative condition characterized by pathology in the brain and peripheral tissues. Hyperactivity of the innate immune system, due in part to NFκB pathway dysregulation, is an early and active component of HD. Evidence suggests targeting immune disruption may slow disease progression. Laquinimod is an orally active immunomodulator that down-regulates proinflammatory cytokine production in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, and in the brain down-regulates astrocytic and microglial activation by modulating NFκB signalling. Laquinimod had beneficial effects on inflammation, brain atrophy and disease progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) in two phase III clinical trials. This study investigated the effects of laquinimod on hyperactive proinflammatory cytokine release and NFκB signalling in HD patient myeloid cell cultures. Monocytes from manifest (manHD) and pre-manifest (preHD) HD gene carriers and healthy volunteers (HV) were treated with laquinimod and stimulated with lipopolysaccharide. After 24 h pre-treatment with 5 µM laquinimod, manHD monocytes released lower levels of IL-1ß, IL-5, IL-8, IL-10, IL-13 and TNFα in response to stimulation. PreHD monocytes released lower levels of IL-8, IL-10 and IL-13, with no reduction observed in HV monocytes. The effects of laquinimod on dysfunctional NFκB signalling in HD was assessed by inhibitor of kappa B (IκB) degradation kinetics, nuclear translocation of NFκB and interactions between IκB kinase (IKK) and HTT, in HD myeloid cells. No differences were observed between laquinimod-treated and untreated conditions. These results provide evidence that laquinimod dampens hyper-reactive cytokine release from manHD and preHD monocytes, with a much reduced effect on HV monocytes. Evidence suggests targeting CNS and peripheral immune disruption may slow Huntington's disease (HD) neurodegenerative processes. The effects of laquinimod, an orally active immunomodulator, on hyperactive cytokine release and dysfunctional NFκB signalling in stimulated myeloid cell cultures from pre-manifest and manifest HD gene carriers and healthy volunteers were investigated. Laquinimod dampened cytokine release but did not impact NFκB signalling. Read the Editorial Highlight for this article on page 670.

Short-interval observational data to inform clinical trial design in Huntington's disease.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate candidate outcomes for disease-modifying trials in Huntington's disease (HD) over 6-month, 9-month and 15-month intervals, across multiple domains. To present guidelines on rapid efficacy readouts for disease-modifying trials. METHODS: 40 controls and 61 patients with HD, recruited from four EU sites, underwent 3 T MRI and standard clinical and cognitive assessments at baseline, 6 and 15 months. Neuroimaging analysis included global and regional change in macrostructure (atrophy and cortical thinning), and microstructure (diffusion metrics). The main outcome was longitudinal effect size (ES) for each outcome. Such ESs can be used to calculate sample-size requirements for clinical trials for hypothesised treatment efficacies. RESULTS: Longitudinal changes in macrostructural neuroimaging measures such as caudate atrophy and ventricular expansion were significantly larger in HD than controls, giving rise to consistently large ES over the 6-month, 9-month and 15-month intervals. Analogous ESs for cortical metrics were smaller with wide CIs. Microstructural (diffusion) neuroimaging metrics ESs were also typically smaller over the shorter intervals, although caudate diffusivity metrics performed strongly over 9 and 15 months. Clinical and cognitive outcomes exhibited small longitudinal ESs, particularly over 6-month and 9-month intervals, with wide CIs, indicating a lack of precision. CONCLUSIONS: To exploit the potential power of specific neuroimaging measures such as caudate atrophy in disease-modifying trials, we propose their use as (1) initial short-term readouts in early phase/proof-of-concept studies over 6 or 9 months, and (2) secondary end points in efficacy studies over longer periods such as 15 months.

An exploratory double-blind, randomized clinical trial with selisistat, a SirT1 inhibitor, in patients with Huntington's disease.

AIMS: Selisistat, a selective SirT1 inhibitor is being developed as a potentially disease-modifying therapeutic for Huntington's disease (HD). This was the first study of selisistat in HD patients and was primarily aimed at development of pharmacodynamic biomarkers. METHODS: This was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre exploratory study. Fifty-five male and female patients in early stage HD were randomized to receive 10 mg or 100 mg of selisistat or placebo once daily for 14 days. Blood sampling, clinical and safety assessments were conducted throughout the study. Candidate pharmacodynamic markers included circulating soluble huntingtin and innate immune markers. RESULTS: Selisistat was found to be safe and well tolerated, and systemic exposure parameters showed that the average steady-state plasma concentration achieved at the 10 mg dose level (125 nm) was comparable with the IC50 for SirT1 inhibition. No adverse effects on motor, cognitive or functional readouts were recorded. While circulating levels of soluble huntingtin were not affected by selisistat in this study, the biological samples collected have allowed development of assay technology for use in future studies. No effects on innate immune markers were seen. CONCLUSIONS: Selisistat was found to be safe and well tolerated in early stage HD patients at plasma concentrations within the anticipated therapeutic concentration range.

Cerebellar abnormalities in Huntington's disease: a role in motor and psychiatric impairment?

The cerebellum has received limited attention in Huntington's disease (HD), despite signs of possible cerebellar dysfunction, including motor incoordination and impaired gait, which are currently attributed to basal ganglia atrophy and disrupted fronto-striatal circuits. This study is the first to investigate a potential contribution of macro- and microstructural cerebellar damage to clinical manifestations of HD. T1- and diffusion-weighted 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were obtained from 12 controls and 22 early-stage HD participants. Manual delineation and voxel-based morphometry were used to assess between-group differences in cerebellar volume, and diffusion metrics were compared between groups within the cerebellar gray and white matter. Associations between these imaging measures and clinical scores were examined within the HD group. Reduced paravermal volume was detected in HD compared with controls using voxel-based morphometry (P < 0.05), but no significant volumetric differences were found using manual delineation. Diffusion abnormalities were detected in both cerebellar gray matter and white matter. Smaller cerebellar volumes, although not significantly reduced, were significantly associated with impaired gait and psychiatric morbidity and of borderline significance with pronate/supinate-hand task performance. Abnormal cerebellar diffusion was associated with increased total motor score, impaired saccade initiation, tandem walking, and timed finger tapping. In conclusion, atrophy of the paravermis, possibly encompassing the cerebellar nuclei, and microstructural abnormalities within the cerebellum may contribute to HD neuropathology. Aberrant cerebellar diffusion and reduced cerebellar volume together associate with impaired motor function and increased psychiatric symptoms in stage I HD, potentially implicating the cerebellum more centrally in HD presentation than previously recognized.

Resource utilisation and outcomes of people with heart failure in England: a descriptive analysis of linked primary and secondary care data - the PULSE study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is associated with high levels of resource use and mortality, but prior UK studies have not compared outcomes by HF subtype (HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF)) in large patient populations. This study investigated healthcare resource utilisation and mortality in patients with HF in England, overall and by HF subtype. METHODS: This non-interventional cohort study linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink database to Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient and UK Office for National Statistics mortality data. Patients with a recorded HF diagnosis (new (incident) or existing (prevalent)) based on clinical codes or measures of ejection fraction between 2015 and 2019 were included. RESULTS: Of 383 896 patients identified with HF, 100 224 patients (26%) had a recorded subtype: 68 780 patients with HFrEF (69%) and 31 444 patients (31%) with HFpEF. In total, 918 553 person-years (PY) were included (median follow-up: 2.1 years): 625 619 PY (68%) for unknown HF subtype, 204 862 PY (22%) for HFrEF and 88 017 PY (10%) for HFpEF. Overall, 11% of patients experienced ≥1 HF hospitalisation. After age and sex adjustment, hospitalisations for HF (HHF; including recurrent hospitalisations) and HF-related general practitioner consultations occurred at rates of approximately 80/1000 and 124/1000 PY, respectively, and were highest for patients with HFrEF and unknown subtype. Overall, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were 132/1000 and 49/1000 PY, respectively. Patients with unknown subtype had the highest 1-year and 5-year mortality (20% and 48%), followed by HFrEF (8% and 35%) and HFpEF (6% and 25%). CONCLUSIONS: HF is associated with high levels of healthcare resource use, mortality, HHF and comorbidities. Ensuring that patients receive early and appropriate guideline-directed therapies to manage HF and associated comorbidities is likely to improve patient care and reduce the burden of HF on the English healthcare system.

Prescribing in Type 2 Diabetes Patients With and Without Cardiovascular Disease History: A Descriptive Analysis in the UK CPRD.

PURPOSE: Some classes of glucose-lowering medications, including sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and glucagon-like peptide 1-receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) have cardio-protective benefit, but it is unclear whether this influences prescribing in the United Kingdom (UK). This study aims to describe class-level prescribing in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by cardiovascular disease (CVD) history using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). METHODS: Four cross-sections of people with T2DM aged 18-90 and registered with their general practice for >1 year on 1st January 2017 (n = 166,012), 1st January 2018 (n = 155,290), 1st January 2019 (n = 152,602) and 31st December 2019 (n = 143,373) were identified. Age-standardised proportions for class use through time were calculated separately in those with and without CVD history and by total number of medications prescribed (one, two, three, four+). An analysis by UK country was also performed. FINDINGS: Around 31% of patients had CVD history at each cross-section. Metformin was the most common treatment (>70% of those with and without CVD had prescriptions across all treatment lines). Overall use of SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs was low, with slightly less use in patients with CVD (SGLT2i: 9.8% and 13.8% in those with and without CVD respectively; GLP1-RA: 4.3% and 4.9%, December 2019). Use of SGLT2is as part of dual therapy was low but rose throughout the study. In January 2017, estimated use was 8.0% (95% CI 6.9-9.1%) and 8.9% (8.6-9.3%) in those with and without CVD. By December 2019 this reached 18.3% (17.0-19.5%) and 21.2% (20.6-21.7%) for those with and without CVD respectively. SGLT2i use as triple therapy increased: 22.7% (21.0-24.4%) and 25.9% (25.2-26.6%) in January 2017 to 41.3% (39.5-43.0%) and 45.5% (44.7-46.3%) in December 2019. GLP1-RA use also increased, but observed usage remained lower than SGLT2 inhibitors. Insulin use remained stable throughout, with higher use observed in those with CVD (16% vs 9.7% Dec 2019). Time trends in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland were similar, although class prevalence varied. IMPLICATIONS: Although use of SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs has increased, overall usage remains low with slightly lower use in those with CVD history, suggesting there is opportunity to optimise use of these medicines in T2DM patients to manage CVD risk. Insulin use was substantially more prevalent in those with CVD despite no evidence of CVD benefit. Further investigation of factors influencing this finding may highlight strategies to improve patient access to the most appropriate treatments, including those with evidence of cardiovascular benefit.

Risk of 16 cancers across the full glycemic spectrum: a population-based cohort study using the UK Biobank.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes is observed to increase cancer risk, leading to hypothesized direct effects of either hyperglycemia or medication. We investigated associations between glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) across the whole glycemic spectrum and incidence of 16 cancers in a population sample with comprehensive adjustment for risk factors and medication. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Linked data from the UK Biobank and UK cancer registry for all individuals with baseline HbA1c and no history of cancer at enrollment were used. Incident cancer was based on International Classification of Diseases - 10th Edition diagnostic codes. Age-standardized incidence rates were estimated by HbA1c category. Associations between HbA1c, modeled as a restricted cubic spline, and cancer risk were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Among 378 253 individuals with average follow-up of 7.1 years, 21 172 incident cancers occurred. While incidence for many of the 16 cancers was associated with hyperglycemia in crude analyses, these associations disappeared after multivariable adjustment, except for pancreatic cancer (HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.98 for 55 vs 35 mmol/mol), and a novel finding of an inverse association between HbA1c and premenopausal breast cancer (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.60 for 25 vs 35 mmol/mol; HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.94 for 45 vs 35 mmol/mol), not observed for postmenopausal breast cancer. Adjustment for diabetes medications had no appreciable impact on HRs for cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from pancreatic cancer, we did not demonstrate any independent positive association between HbA1c and cancer risk. These findings suggest that the potential for a cancer-inducing, direct effect of hyperglycemia may be misplaced.

Marginal structural models for repeated measures where intercept and slope are correlated: An application exploring the benefit of nutritional supplements on weight gain in HIV-infected children initiating antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: The impact of nutritional supplements on weight gain in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral treatment (ART) remains uncertain. Starting supplements depends upon current weight-for-age or other acute malnutrition indicators, producing time-dependent confounding. However, weight-for-age at ART initiation may affect subsequent weight gain, independent of supplement use. Implications for marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) are unclear. METHODS: In the ARROW trial, non-randomised supplement use and weight-for-age were recorded monthly from ART initiation. The effect of supplements on weight-for-age over the first year was estimated using generalised estimating equation MSMs with IPTW, both with and without interaction terms between baseline weight-for-age and time. Separately, data were simulated assuming no supplement effect, with use depending on current weight-for-age, and weight-for-age trajectory depending on baseline weight-for-age to investigate potential bias associated with different MSM specifications. RESULTS: In simulations, despite correctly specifying IPTW, omitting an interaction in the MSM between baseline weight-for-age and time produced increasingly biased estimates as associations between baseline weight-for-age and subsequent weight trajectory increased. Estimates were unbiased when the interaction between baseline weight-for-age and time was included, even if the data were simulated with no such interaction. In ARROW, without an interaction the estimated effect was +0.09 (95%CI +0.02,+0.16) greater weight-for-age gain per month's supplement use; this reduced to +0.03 (-0.04,+0.10) including the interaction. DISCUSSION: This study highlights a specific situation in which MSM model misspecification can occur and impact the resulting estimate. Since an interaction in the MSM (outcome) model does not bias the estimate of effect if the interaction does not exist, it may be advisable to include such a term when fitting MSMs for repeated measures.

Metformin use and risk of cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes: a cohort study of primary care records using inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies provide conflicting evidence on whether metformin is protective against cancer. When studying time-varying exposure to metformin, covariates such as body mass index (BMI) and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) may act as both confounders and causal pathway variables, and so cannot be handled adequately by standard regression methods. Marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) can correctly adjust for such confounders. Using this approach, the main objective of this study was to estimate the effect of metformin on cancer risk compared with risk in patients with T2DM taking no medication. METHODS: Patients with incident type 2 diabetes (T2DM) were identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a database of electronic health records derived from primary care in the UK. Patients entered the study at diabetes diagnosis or the first point after this when they had valid HbA1c and BMI measurements, and follow-up was split into 1-month intervals. Logistic regression was used to calculate IPTW; then the effect of metformin on all cancers (including and excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and breast, prostate, lung, colorectal and pancreatic cancers was estimated in the weighted population. RESULTS: A total of 55 629 T2DM patients were alive and cancer-free at their study entry; 2530 people had incident cancer during a median follow-up time of 2.9 years [interquartile range (IQR) 1.3-5.4 years]. Using the MSM approach, the hazard ratio (HR) for all cancers, comparing treatment with metformin with no glucose-lowering treatment, was 1.02 (0.88-1.18). Results were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses and remained consistent when estimating the treatment effect by length of exposure. We also found no evidence of a protective effect of metformin on individual cancer outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We find no evidence that metformin has a causal association with cancer risk.

Associations Between Measures of Sarcopenic Obesity and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: A Cohort Study and Mendelian Randomization Analysis Using the UK Biobank.

Background The "healthy obese" hypothesis suggests the risks associated with excess adiposity are reduced in those with higher muscle quality (mass/strength). Alternative possibilities include loss of muscle quality as people become unwell (reverse causality) or unmeasured confounding. Methods and Results We conducted a cohort study using the UK Biobank (n=452 931). Baseline body mass index ( BMI) was used to quantify adiposity and handgrip strength ( HGS ) used for muscle quality. Outcomes were fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease, and mortality. As a secondary analysis we used waist-hip-ratio or fat mass percentage instead of BMI , and skeletal muscle mass index instead of HGS . In a subsample, we used gene scores for BMI , waist-hip-ratio and HGS in a Mendelian randomization ( MR ). BMI defined obesity was associated with an increased risk of all outcomes (hazard ratio [ HR ] range 1.10-1.82). Low HGS was associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality ( HR range 1.39-1.72). HR s for the association between low HGS and cardiovascular disease events were smaller ( HR range 1.05-1.09). There was no suggestion of an interaction between HGS and BMI to support the healthy obese hypothesis. Results using other adiposity metrics were similar. There was no evidence of an association between skeletal muscle mass index and any outcome. Factorial Mendelian randomization confirmed no evidence for an interaction. Low genetically predicted HGS was associated with an increased risk of mortality ( HR range 1.08-1.19). Conclusions Our analyses do not support the healthy obese concept, with no evidence that the adverse effect of obesity on outcomes was reduced by improved muscle quality. Lower HGS was associated with increased risks of mortality in both observational and MR analyses, suggesting reverse causality may not be the sole explanation.

Long term adjuvant endocrine therapy and risk of cardiovascular disease in female breast cancer survivors: systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of endocrine therapies on a wide range of specific clinical cardiovascular disease outcomes in women with a history of non-metastatic breast cancer. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies. DATA SOURCES: Medline and Embase up until June 2018. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Studies were included if they investigated the risk of a specific cardiovascular disease outcome associated with use of either tamoxifen or an aromatase inhibitor, or compared the two treatments, in women with a history of non-metastatic breast cancer. APPRAISAL AND DATA EXTRACTION: Relevant studies were originally identified and results extracted by one researcher, with a full replication of the study identification process by a combination of two other researchers. The Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias was used to assess risk of bias in randomised controlled trials, and this tool was adapted to assess risk of bias in observational studies. RESULTS: 26 studies were identified, with results for seven specific cardiovascular disease outcomes (venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, angina, heart failure, arrhythmia, and peripheral vascular disease). Results suggested an increased risk of venous thromboembolism in tamoxifen users compared with both non-users and aromatase inhibitor users. Results were also consistent with a higher risk of the vascular diseases myocardial infarction and angina in aromatase inhibitor users compared with tamoxifen users, but there was also a suggestion that this may be partly driven by a protective effect of tamoxifen on these outcomes. Data were limited, and evidence was generally inconsistent for all other cardiovascular disease outcomes. CONCLUSION: This review has collated substantial randomised controlled trial and observational evidence on the effect of endocrine therapies on several specific cardiovascular disease outcomes including venous thromboembolism and myocardial infarction, progressing knowledge. Although the choice of aromatase inhibitor or tamoxifen will primarily be based on the effectiveness against the recurrence of breast cancer, this review shows that the individual patient's risk of venous or arterial vascular disease should be an important secondary consideration. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Prospero CRD42017065944.

Application of causal inference methods in the analyses of randomised controlled trials: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Applications of causal inference methods to randomised controlled trial (RCT) data have usually focused on adjusting for compliance with the randomised intervention rather than on using RCT data to address other, non-randomised questions. In this paper we review use of causal inference methods to assess the impact of aspects of patient management other than the randomised intervention in RCTs. METHODS: We identified papers that used causal inference methodology in RCT data from Medline, Premedline, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science from 1986 to September 2014, using a forward citation search of five seminal papers, and a keyword search. We did not include studies where inverse probability weighting was used solely to balance baseline characteristics, adjust for loss to follow-up or adjust for non-compliance to randomised treatment. Studies where the exposure could not be assigned were also excluded. RESULTS: There were 25 papers identified. Nearly half the papers (11/25) estimated the causal effect of concomitant medication on outcome. The remainder were concerned with post-randomisation treatment regimens (sequential treatments, n =5 ), effects of treatment timing (n = 2) and treatment dosing or duration (n = 7). Examples were found in cardiovascular disease (n = 5), HIV (n = 7), cancer (n = 6), mental health (n = 4), paediatrics (n = 2) and transfusion medicine (n = 1). The most common method implemented was a marginal structural model with inverse probability of treatment weighting. CONCLUSIONS: Examples of studies which exploit RCT data to address non-randomised questions using causal inference methodology remain relatively limited, despite the growth in methodological development and increasing utilisation in observational studies. Further efforts may be needed to promote use of causal methods to address additional clinical questions within RCTs to maximise their value.

Metformin and cancer in type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and comprehensive bias evaluation.

Background: Existing observational studies provide conflicting evidence for the causal effect of metformin use on cancer risk in patients with type-2 diabetes, and there are concerns about bias affecting a number of studies. Methods: MEDLINE was used to identify observational studies investigating the association between metformin and overall or site-specific cancer in people with type-2 diabetes. A systematic data extraction and bias assessment was conducted, in which risk of eight bias domains (outcome, exposure, control selection, baseline confounding, time-dependent confounding, immortal time, missing data, censoring methods) were assessed against pre-defined criteria, and rated as unlikely, low, medium or high. Results: Of 46 studies identified, 21 assessed the effect of metformin on all cancer. Reported relative risks ranged from 0.23 to 1.22, with 12/21 reporting a statistically significant protective effect and none a harmful effect. The range of estimates was similar for site-specific cancers; 3/46 studies were rated as low or unlikely risk of bias in all domains. Two of these had results consistent with no effect of metformin; one observed a moderate protective effect overall, but presented further analyses that the authors concluded were inconsistent with causality. However, 28/46 studies were at risk from bias through exposure definition, 22 through insufficient baseline adjustment and 35 from possible time-dependent confounding. Conclusions: Observational studies on metformin and cancer varied in design, and the majority were at risk of a range of biases. The studies least likely to be affected by bias did not support a causal effect of metformin on cancer risk.