Quality maternity care for every woman, everywhere: a call to action.

To improve maternal health requires action to ensure quality maternal health care for all women and girls, and to guarantee access to care for those outside the system. In this paper, we highlight some of the most pressing issues in maternal health and ask: what steps can be taken in the next 5 years to catalyse action toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goal target of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths by 2030, with no single country exceeding 140? What steps can be taken to ensure that high-quality maternal health care is prioritised for every woman and girl everywhere? We call on all stakeholders to work together in securing a healthy, prosperous future for all women. National and local governments must be supported by development partners, civil society, and the private sector in leading efforts to improve maternal-perinatal health. This effort means dedicating needed policies and resources, and sustaining implementation to address the many factors influencing maternal health-care provision and use. Five priority actions emerge for all partners: prioritise quality maternal health services that respond to the local specificities of need, and meet emerging challenges; promote equity through universal coverage of quality maternal health services, including for the most vulnerable women; increase the resilience and strength of health systems by optimising the health workforce, and improve facility capability; guarantee sustainable finances for maternal-perinatal health; and accelerate progress through evidence, advocacy, and accountability.

Global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for young people's health during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Young people's health has emerged as a neglected yet pressing issue in global development. Changing patterns of young people's health have the potential to undermine future population health as well as global economic development unless timely and effective strategies are put into place. We report the past, present, and anticipated burden of disease in young people aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2013 using data on mortality, disability, injuries, and health risk factors. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) includes annual assessments for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013, covering 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. We used the comparative risk assessment approach to assess how much of the burden of disease reported in a given year can be attributed to past exposure to a risk. We estimated attributable burden by comparing observed health outcomes with those that would have been observed if an alternative or counterfactual level of exposure had occurred in the past. We applied the same method to previous years to allow comparisons from 1990 to 2013. We cross-tabulated the quantiles of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by quintiles of DALYs annual increase from 1990 to 2013 to show rates of DALYs increase by burden. We used the GBD 2013 hierarchy of causes that organises 306 diseases and injuries into four levels of classification. Level one distinguishes three broad categories: first, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; second, non-communicable diseases; and third, injuries. Level two has 21 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, level three has 163 categories, and level four has 254 categories. FINDINGS: The leading causes of death in 2013 for young people aged 10-14 years were HIV/AIDS, road injuries, and drowning (25·2%), whereas transport injuries were the leading cause of death for ages 15-19 years (14·2%) and 20-24 years (15·6%). Maternal disorders were the highest cause of death for young women aged 20-24 years (17·1%) and the fourth highest for girls aged 15-19 years (11·5%) in 2013. Unsafe sex as a risk factor for DALYs increased from the 13th rank to the second for both sexes aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2013. Alcohol misuse was the highest risk factor for DALYs (7·0% overall, 10·5% for males, and 2·7% for females) for young people aged 20-24 years, whereas drug use accounted for 2·7% (3·3% for males and 2·0% for females). The contribution of risk factors varied between and within countries. For example, for ages 20-24 years, drug use was highest in Qatar and accounted for 4·9% of DALYs, followed by 4·8% in the United Arab Emirates, whereas alcohol use was highest in Russia and accounted for 21·4%, followed by 21·0% in Belarus. Alcohol accounted for 9·0% (ranging from 4·2% in Hong Kong to 11·3% in Shandong) in China and 11·6% (ranging from 10·1% in Aguascalientes to 14·9% in Chihuahua) of DALYs in Mexico for young people aged 20-24 years. Alcohol and drug use in those aged 10-24 years had an annual rate of change of >1·0% from 1990 to 2013 and accounted for more than 3·1% of DALYs. INTERPRETATION: Our findings call for increased efforts to improve health and reduce the burden of disease and risks for diseases in later life in young people. Moreover, because of the large variations between countries in risks and burden, a global approach to improve health during this important period of life will fail unless the particularities of each country are taken into account. Finally, our results call for a strategy to overcome the financial and technical barriers to adequately capture young people's health risk factors and their determinants in health information systems. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Teenage smoking behaviour following a high-school smoking ban in Chile: interrupted time-series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of a smoking ban in high schools on smoking behaviour among Chilean students. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis, using repeated cross-sectional data from Chile's school population survey (2000-2011) for high-school students aged 12-18 years and a control group of persons aged 19-24 years. Poisson regression models were used to assess trends in smoking behaviour before and after the policy changes. The outcome measures were self-reported smoking prevalence (any smoking in the past month) and high frequency of smoking (smoking 15 days or more per month). FINDINGS: From 2005 to 2011, the prevalence of smoking declined among high-school students by 6.8% per year compared with 3.6% decline per year in the control group. The decline in the target group was 2.9% (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.18 to 5.00) greater. We estimated that 5-6 years after enforcing the law, smoking prevalence among high-school students was 13.7% lower as a result of the ban. The impact of the smoking ban was primarily driven by declines in smoking prevalence among students in grades 8 to 10. The smoking ban did not significantly alter the frequency of smoking. CONCLUSION: The 2005 school smoking ban reduced smoking prevalence among younger high-school students in Chile. Further interventions targeting older individuals and frequent smokers may be needed.

Social network enhanced behavioral interventions for diabetes and obesity: A 3 arm randomized trial with 2 years follow-up in Jordan.

While obesity and diabetes are rising pandemics, few low-cost and effective prevention and management strategies exist, especially in the Middle East. Nearly 20% of adults in Jordan suffer from diabetes, and over 75% are overweight or obese. Social network-based programs have shown promise as a viable public health intervention strategy to address these growing crises. We evaluated the effectiveness of the Microclinic Program (MCP) via a 6-month multi-community randomized trial in Jordan, with follow-up at 2 years. The MCP leverages existing social relationships to propagate positive health behaviors and information. We recruited participants from 3 community health centers in Amman, Jordan. Participants were eligible for the study if they had diabetes, pre-diabetes, or possessed ≥1 metabolic risk factor along with a family history of diabetes. We randomized participants into three trial arms: (A Group) received the Full MCP with curriculum-activated social network interactions; (B Group) received Basic MCP educational sessions with organic social network interactions; or (C Group-Control) received standard care coupled with active monitoring and parallel screenings. Groups of individuals were randomized as units in a 3:1:1 ratio, with resulting group sizes of n = 540, 186, and 188 in arms A, B, and C, respectively. We assessed the overall changes in body weight, fasting glucose, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and mean arterial blood pressure between study arms in multiple evaluations across 2 years (including at 6-months and 2-years follow-up). We investigated the effectiveness of Full and Basic MCP social network interventions using multilevel models for longitudinal data with hierarchical nesting of individuals within MCP classrooms, within community centers, and within temporal cohorts. We observed significant overall 2-year differences between all 3 groups for changes in body weight (P = 0.0003), fasting blood glucose (P = 0.0015), and HbA1c (P = 0.0004), but not in mean arterial blood pressure (P = 0.45). However, significant changes in mean arterial pressure were observed for Full MCP versus controls (P = 0.002). Weight loss in the Full MCP exceeded (-0.97 kg (P<0.001)) the Basic MCP during the intervention. Furthermore, both Full and Basic MCP yielded greater weight loss compared to the control group at 2 years. The Full MCP also sustained a superior fasting glucose change over 2 years (overall P<0.0001) versus the control group. For HbA1c, the Full MCP similarly led to greater 6-month reduction in HbA1c versus the control group (P<0.001), with attenuation at 2 years. For mean arterial blood pressure, the Full MCP yielded a greater drop in blood pressure versus control at 6 months; with attenuation at 2 years. These results suggest that activated social networks of classroom interactions can be harnessed to improve health behaviors related to obesity and diabetes. Future studies should investigate how public health policies and initiatives can further leverage social network programs for greater community propagation. Trial registration. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01818674.

Convergent evolution of clamp-like binding sites in diverse chaperones.

Molecular chaperones have evolved diverse tertiary and quaternary structures to stabilize non-native polypeptides and facilitate their transition to the native state. Indeed, different families of chaperones lack sequence similarity, and few are represented ubiquitously in all three domains of life. Despite their discrete evolutionary paths, recent crystal structures reveal that many chaperones use seemingly convergent strategies to bind non-native proteins. This crystallographic evidence shows, or strongly suggests, that chaperones including prefoldin, Skp, trigger factor, Hsp40 and Hsp90 have clamp-like structural features used to grip substrate proteins. We explore the notion that clamp-like structures are evolutionarily favored by both ATP-dependent and ATP-independent molecular chaperones. Presumably, clamps present a multivalent binding surface ideal for protecting unstable protein conformers until they reach the native state or are transferred to another component of the folding machinery.

The burden of chronic kidney disease on developing nations: a 21st century challenge in global health.

Chronic diseases present a significant challenge to 21st century global health policy. In developing nations, the growing prevalence of chronic diseases such as chronic kidney disease has severe implications on health and economic output. The rapid rise of common risk factors such as diabetes, hypertension, and obesity, especially among the poor, will result in even greater and more profound burdens that developing nations are not equipped to handle. Attention to chronic diseases, chronic kidney disease in particular, has been lacking, largely due to the global health community's focus on infectious diseases and lack of awareness. There is a critical need for funding in and to developing countries to implement more comprehensive, cost-effective, and preventative interventions against chronic diseases. This paper examines the epidemiology of chronic diseases, the growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease and its implications for global public health, and the associated health and economic burdens. Finally, a summary review of cost-effective interventions and funding needs is provided.

Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Ageing populations and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increasingly contribute to the growing cost burden facing European healthcare systems. Few studies have attempted to quantify the future magnitude of this burden at the European level, and none of them consider the impact of potential changes in risk factor trajectories on future health expenditures. METHODS: The new microsimulation model forecasts the impact of behavioural and metabolic risk factors on NCDs, longevity and direct healthcare costs, and shows how changes in epidemiological trends can modify those impacts. Economic burden of NCDs is modelled under three scenarios based on assumed future risk factors trends: business as usual (BAU); best case and worst case predictions (BCP and WCP). FINDINGS: The direct costs of NCDs in the EU 27 countries and the UK (in constant 2014 prices) will grow under all scenarios. Between 2014 and 2050, the overall healthcare spending is expected to increase by 0.8% annually under BAU. In the all the countries, 605 billion Euros can be saved by 2050 if BCP is realized compared to the BAU, while excess spending under the WCP is forecast to be around 350 billion. Interpretation: Although the savings realised under the BCP can be substantial, population ageing is a stronger driver of rising total healthcare expenditures in Europe compared to scenario-based changes in risk factor prevalence.

The short-term effect of BMI, alcohol use, and related chronic conditions on labour market outcomes: A time-lag panel analysis utilizing European SHARE dataset.

INTRODUCTION: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes have spread at a remarkable pace in European countries over the past decades. Overweight/obesity and alcohol use are two leading risk factors contributing to both economic and epidemiological burden associated with NCDs. In OECD countries, the impact of indirect costs of obesity varies between 0.20% and 1.21% of GDP. Indirect costs of alcohol use range from 0.19% (Portugal) to 1.6% (Estonia) of GDP. AIM: To assess the longitudinal impact of alcohol use and high body-mass index (BMI) on labour market outcomes in the European region by modeling the direct effect of high BMI and alcohol use, and the effect via associated diseases. METHODS: The impact of BMI, alcohol use, and associated diseases on employment likelihood, intent to retire early, days of absenteeism, and hours of work per week, were modelled via lagged Poisson and Zero-inflated Poisson regressions, adjusting for missingness via inverse probability weighting, as appropriate, using European SHARE data. RESULTS: Controlling for other chronic conditions, being overweight increases employment likelihood among men, but not among women. Obesity decreased female, but not male, employment chances. All chronic conditions linked with high BMI negatively affected employment likelihood, and increased the intention to retire early significantly. Alcohol use positively affects employment likelihood in women at all drinking levels relative to lifetime abstainers, but only in moderate (not heavy) male drinkers. There is super-additionality of impact of NCDs on absenteeism and hours worked, presenting a key economic argument to tackle NCD prevention and compression of morbidity. IMPLICATIONS: NCD prevention is not just important for employment and hours worked, but also for employee morale, especially given increasing retirement age in Europe and globally.

Population-level decline in BMI and systolic blood pressure following mass HIV treatment: Evidence from rural KwaZulu-Natal.

OBJECTIVE: Clinic-based studies have shown that patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) gain weight after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). This study aimed to determine whether the scale-up of ART was associated with a population-level increase in body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure (BP) in a community with high HIV and obesity prevalence. METHODS: A household survey was conducted in rural KwaZulu-Natal before ART scale-up (in 2004) and when ART coverage had reached 25% (in 2010). Anthropometric data was linked with HIV surveillance data. RESULTS: Mean BMI decreased in women from 29.9 to 29.1 kg/m2 (P = 0.002) and in men from 24.2 to 23.0 kg/m2 (P < 0.001). Similarly, overweight and obesity prevalence declined significantly in both sexes. Mean systolic BP decreased from 123.0 to 118.2 mm Hg (P < 0.001) among women and 128.4 to 123.2 mm Hg (P < 0·001) among men. CONCLUSIONS: Large-scale ART provision is likely to have caused a decline in BMI at the population level, because ART has improved the survival of those with substantial HIV-related weight loss. The ART scale-up may have created an unexpected opportunity to sustain population-level weight loss in communities with high HIV and obesity prevalence though targeted lifestyle and nutrition interventions.

Multimorbidity: What do we know? What should we do?

Multimorbidity, which is defined as the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions, has moved onto the priority agenda for many health policymakers and healthcare providers. Patients with multimorbidity are high utilizers of healthcare resources and are some of the most costly and difficult-to-treat patients in Europe. Preventing and improving the way multimorbidity is managed is now a key priority for many countries, and work is at last underway to develop more sustainable models of care. Unfortunately, this effort is being hampered by a lack of basic knowledge about the aetiology, epidemiology, and risk factors for multimorbidity, and the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of different interventions. The European Commission recognizes the need for reform in this area and has committed to raising awareness of multimorbidity, encouraging innovation, optimizing the use of existing resources, and coordinating the efforts of different stakeholders across the European Union. Many countries have now incorporated multimorbidity into their own healthcare strategies and are working to strengthen their prevention efforts and develop more integrated models of care. Although there is some evidence that integrated care for people with multimorbidity can create efficiency gains and improve health outcomes, the evidence is limited, and may only be applicable to high-income countries with relatively strong and well-resourced health systems. In low- to middle-income countries, which are facing the double burden of infectious and chronic diseases, integration of care will require capacity building, better quality services, and a stronger evidence base.

Taxes on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages to Reduce Overweight and Obesity in Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), which can lead to weight gain, is rising in middle-income countries (MICs). Taxing SSBs may help address this challenge. Systematic reviews focused on high-income countries indicate that taxing SSBs may reduce SSB consumption. Responsiveness to price changes may differ in MICs, where governments are considering the tax. To help inform their policy decisions, this review compiles evidence from MICs, assessing post-tax price increases (objective 1), changes in demand for SSBs and other products, overall and by socio-economic groups (objective 2), and effects on overweight and obesity prevalence (objective 3). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a systematic review on the effectiveness of SSB taxation in MICs (1990-2016) and identified nine studies from Brazil, Ecuador, India, Mexico, Peru, and South Africa. Estimates for own-price elasticity ranged from -0.6 to -1.2, and decreases in SSB consumption ranged from 5 to 39 kilojoules per person per day given a 10% increase in SSB prices. The review found that milk is a likely substitute, and foods prepared away from home, snacks, and candy are likely complements to SSBs. A quasi-experimental study and two modeling studies also found a negative relationship between SSB prices and obesity outcomes after accounting for substitution effects. Estimates are consistent despite variation in baseline obesity prevalence and per person per day consumption of SSBs across countries studied. CONCLUSIONS: The review indicates that taxing SSBs will increase the prices of SSBs, especially sugary soda, in markets with few producers. Taxing SSBs will also reduce net energy intake by enough to prevent further growth in obesity prevalence, but not to reduce population weight permanently. Additional research using better survey data and stronger study designs is needed to ascertain the long-term effectiveness of an SSB tax on obesity prevalence in MICs.

The Effect of HIV and the Modifying Effect of Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) on Body Mass Index (BMI) and Blood Pressure Levels in Rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: High BMI and blood pressure are leading chronic disease risk factors in South Africa. Longterm effects of HIV and ART on adiposity and blood pressure are poorly understood, and direct comparisons of risk factor trajectories in HIV- versus HIV+ populations are rare. METHODS: In 2003 and 2010, height, weight, and blood pressure were recorded in a study population (n = 505) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (30% adult HIV prevalence). We modeled change in BMI and BP longitudinally in HIV- individuals (n = 315), seroconverters (n = 32), HIV+ patients not on ART (HIV+ART-; n = 52), HIV+ patients on ART for 0-<2 years as of 2010 (HIV+ART0-<2 yrs; n = 18), patients on ART for 2-5 years (HIV+ART2-5yrs; n = 44), and a subgroup with unknown HIV status (n = 44). Difference-in-differences were assessed in reference to the HIV- population. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2010, BMI increased significantly in the HIV- group, by 0.874 (95% CI 0.339, 1.41; p = 0.001), to 30.4. BMI drop was significantly greater in HIV+ART0-<2yrs than in HIV+ART2-5yrs (p = 0.005). DID in BMI in HIV+ART0-<2yrs versus the reference was -5.21 (95% CI -7.53, -2.90; p = 0.001), and DID in HIV+ART2-5yrs versus reference was -1.35 (95% CI -2.89, 0.189; p = 0.086). DID in SBP in HIV+ART-vs HIV- DID was -7.55 mmHg (95% CI -13.2 to -1.90; p = 0.009). CONCLUSION: Short-term ART (0-<2 years) was associated with larger weight loss than either no ART or long-term ART. Once on ART for 2+ years, individuals 'caught up' on weight gain with the HIV- population. Our results showcase the importance of health system readiness to address the burgeoning double burden of disease in South Africa.

Evidenced Formal Coverage Index and universal healthcare enactment: A prospective longitudinal study of economic, social, and political predictors of 194 countries.

Determinants of universal healthcare (UHC) are poorly empirically understood. We undertook a comprehensive study of UHC development using a novel Evidenced Formal Coverage (EFC) index that combines three key UHC elements: legal framework, population coverage, and accessibility. Applying the EFC index measures (legislation, ≥90% skilled birth attendance, ≥85% formal coverage) to 194 countries, aggregating time-varying data from 1880-2008, this study investigates which macro-economic, political, and social indicators are major longitudinal predictors of developing EFC globally, and in middle-income countries. Overall, 75 of 194 countries implemented legal-text UHC legislation, of which 51 achieved EFC. In a country-year prospective longitudinal analysis of EFC prediction, higher GDP-per-capita (per GDP-per-capita doubling, relative risk [RR]=1.77, 95% CI: 1.49-2.10), higher primary school completion (per +20% completion, RR=2.30, 1.65-3.21), and higher adult literacy were significantly associated with achieving EFC. Results also identify a GDP-per-capita of I$5000 as a minimum level for development of EFC. GDP-per-capita and education were each robust predictors in middle-income countries, and education remained significant even controlling for time-varying GDP growth. For income-inequality, the GINI coefficient was suggestive in its role in predicting EFC (p=0.024). For social and political indicators, a greater degree of ethnic fractionalization (per +25%, RR=0.51, 0.38-0.70), proportional electoral system (RR=2.80, 1.22-6.40), and dictatorships (RR=0.10, 0.05-0.27) were further associated with EFC. The novel EFC index and this longitudinal prospective study together indicate that investment in both economic growth and education should be seen of equal importance for development of UHC. Our findings help in understanding the social and political drivers of universal healthcare, especially for transitioning countries.

Study-design selection criteria in systematic reviews of effectiveness of health systems interventions and reforms: A meta-review.

At present, there exists no widely agreed upon set of study-design selection criteria for systematic reviews of health systems research, except for those proposed by the Cochrane Collaboration's Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) review group (which comprises randomized controlled trials, controlled clinical trials, controlled before-after studies, and interrupted time series). We conducted a meta-review of the study-design selection criteria used in systematic reviews available in the McMaster University's Health Systems Evidence or the EPOC database. Of 414 systematic reviews, 13% did not indicate any study-design selection criteria. Of the 359 studies that described such criteria, 50% limited their synthesis to controlled trials and 68% to some or all of the designs defined by the EPOC criteria. Seven out of eight reviews identified at least one controlled trial that was relevant for the review topic. Seven percent of the reviews included either no or only one relevant primary study. Our meta-review reveals reviewers' preferences for restricting synthesis to controlled experiments or study designs that comply with the EPOC criteria. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the current practices regarding study-design selection in systematic reviews of health systems research as well as alternative approaches.

Misalignment between perceptions and actual global burden of disease: evidence from the US population.

Significant funding of health programs in low-income countries comes from external sources, mainly private donors and national development agencies of high-income countries. How these external funds are allocated remains a subject of ongoing debate, as studies have revealed that external funding may misalign with the underlying disease burden. One determinant of the priorities set by both private donors and development agencies is the perceptions of populations living in high-income countries about which diseases are legitimate for global health intervention. While research has been conducted on the priorities expressed by recipient communities, relatively less has been done to assess those of the donating country. To investigate people's beliefs about the disease burden in high-income countries, we compared publicly available data from U.S. surveys of people's perceptions of the leading causes of death in developing countries against measures of the actual disease burden from the World Health Organization. We found little correlation between the U.S. public's perception and the actual disease burden, measured as either mortality or disability-adjusted life years. While there is potential for reverse causality, so that donor programs drive public perceptions, these findings suggest that increasing the general population's awareness of the true global disease burden could help better align global health funding with population health needs.