Tracking and predicting hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in China by Baidu queries.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is highly prevalent in China, and more efficient methods of epidemic detection and early warning need to be developed to augment traditional surveillance systems. In this paper, a method that uses Baidu search queries to track and predict HFMD epidemics is presented, and the outbreaks of HFMD in China during the 60-month period from January 2011 to December 2015 are predicted. The Pearson correlation coefficient (R) of the predictive model and the mean absolute percentage errors between observed HFMD case counts and the predicted number show that our predictive model gives excellent fit to the data. This implies that Baidu search queries can be used in China to track and reliably predict HFMD epidemics, and can serve as a supplement to official systems for HFMD epidemic surveillance.

Family structure and quality of life of elders in rural China: the role of the new rural social pension.

Using data from a survey in Ankang district of Shaanxi province of China in 2011, this article examines the protective effect of the New Rural Social Pension (NRSP) on quality of life of rural elders, as well the moderating effect on association between family structure and quality of life. An instrumental variable approach is used. NRSP is shown to significantly improve the quality of life of rural elders, and a robustness check shows that this effect is consistent across different sets of subgroups. Compared with the elders who have at least one son, the quality of life of those who are childless or have only one child is significantly lower. The NRSP is more likely to significantly improve the quality of life of one-child elders. In addition, the associations between the NRSP and the different facets of quality of life of the elders are significant except for the facet of sensory abilities.

The role of cultural transmission in human demographic change: an age-structured model.

Human populations vary demographically with population sizes ranging from small groups of hunter-gatherers with less than fifty individuals to vast cities containing many millions. Here we investigate how the cultural transmission of traits affecting survival, fertility, or both can influence the birth rate, age structure, and asymptotic growth rate of a population. We show that the strong spread of such a trait can lead to a demographic transition, similar to that experienced in Europe in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, without using ecological or economic optimizing models. We also show that the spread of a cultural trait that increases fertility, but not survival, can cause demographic change similar to the 'Neolithic demographic transition': a period of increased population growth that is thought to have accompanied the transition from hunter-gatherer to agricultural lifestyles. We investigate the roles of vertical, oblique, and horizontal learning of such a trait in this transition and find that compared to vertical learning alone, horizontal and oblique learning can accelerate the trait's spread, lead to faster population growth, and increase its equilibrium frequency.

The coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation.

The evolution of social traits may not only depend on but also change the social structure of the population. In particular, the evolution of pairwise cooperation, such as biparental care, depends on the pair-matching distribution of the population, and the latter often emerges as a collective outcome of individual pair-bonding traits, which are also under selection. Here, we develop an analytical model and individual-based simulations to study the coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation in parental care, where partners play a Snowdrift game in each breeding season. We illustrate that long-term pair bonds may coevolve with cooperation when bonding cost is below a threshold. As long-term pair bonds lead to assortative interactions through pair-matching dynamics, they may promote the prevalence of cooperation. In addition to the pay-off matrix of a single game, the evolutionarily stable equilibrium also depends on bonding cost and accidental divorce rate, and it is determined by a form of balancing selection because the benefit from pair-bond maintenance diminishes as the frequency of cooperators increases. Our findings highlight the importance of ecological factors affecting social bonding cost and stability in understanding the coevolution of social behaviour and social structures, which may lead to the diversity of biological social systems.

Y chromosome sequence variation and the history of human populations.

Binary polymorphisms associated with the non-recombining region of the human Y chromosome (NRY) preserve the paternal genetic legacy of our species that has persisted to the present, permitting inference of human evolution, population affinity and demographic history. We used denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC; ref. 2) to identify 160 of the 166 bi-allelic and 1 tri-allelic site that formed a parsimonious genealogy of 116 haplotypes, several of which display distinct population affinities based on the analysis of 1062 globally representative individuals. A minority of contemporary East Africans and Khoisan represent the descendants of the most ancestral patrilineages of anatomically modern humans that left Africa between 35,000 and 89,000 years ago.

Forced bachelors, migration and HIV transmission risk in the context of China's gender imbalance: a meta-analysis.

China has experienced continual increase in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) since the 1980s, which has led to a serious gender imbalance. To identify whether the future forced bachelors, especially those who migrate to cities, will increase the risk of HIV spread, a systematic review was carried out of studies published since 2000 that include the sexual risks of male migrants of China. Five studies comparing risk differences between migrants and non-migrants showed male migrants had greater risk of having multiple sexual partners and engaging in commercial sex. Ten studies concerning the relationship between sexual risks and socio-demographic characteristics showed that unmarried male migrants were more likely to engage in commercial sex and be infected with STDs than married migrants, while male migrants with higher income were more likely to have multiple sexual partners and be infected with STDs. In an analysis stratified by sample characteristics, the association between marriage and sexual risk was greater among samples with lower mean age, higher average income and education. In addition, the risk selection on education and income disappeared in the samples of migrants of whom more than half were unmarried.

Cumulative cultural dynamics and the coevolution of cultural innovation and transmission: an ESS model for panmictic and structured populations.

When individuals in a population can acquire traits through learning, each individual may express a certain number of distinct cultural traits. These traits may have been either invented by the individual himself or acquired from others in the population. Here, we develop a game theoretic model for the accumulation of cultural traits through individual and social learning. We explore how the rates of innovation, decay, and transmission of cultural traits affect the evolutionary stable (ES) levels of individual and social learning and the number of cultural traits expressed by an individual when cultural dynamics are at a steady-state. We explore the evolution of these phenotypes in both panmictic and structured population settings. Our results suggest that in panmictic populations, the ES level of learning and number of traits tend to be independent of the social transmission rate of cultural traits and is mainly affected by the innovation and decay rates. By contrast, in structured populations, where interactions occur between relatives, the ES level of learning and the number of traits per individual can be increased (relative to the panmictic case) and may then markedly depend on the transmission rate of cultural traits. This suggests that kin selection may be one additional solution to Rogers's paradox of nonadaptive culture.

High sex ratios in China's future.

In China in recent years, male live births have exceeded those of females by amounts far greater than those that occur naturally in human populations, a trend with significant demographic consequences. The resulting imbalance in the first-marriage market is estimated to be about 1 million males per year after 2010. These "excess" males were not easily accommodated in models with substantial changes in first-marriage patterns. The current sex ratio at birth has little effect on a couple's probability of having at least one son, so future increases in the sex ratio may well occur, especially given increasing access to sex-selective abortion.

Kin selection and the evolution of monogamy.

A two-locus genetic model is studied in which one locus controls the tendency of individuals to act altruistically toward siblings and the other locus controls the mating habits of females. It is demonstrated that genetic variation at the altruism locus is often sufficient to induce an increase in the frequency of genes that cause females to produce all of their offspring with a single mate. This occurs because of nonrandom associations that develop between genes that cause altruism and those that affect female mating behavior. The results provide a new explanation for the evolution of monogamy, and they suggest a previously unexplored mechanism for the evolution of a variety of other behavioral traits as well.

Theory and observation in cultural transmission.

Cultural phenomena may show considerable stability over time and space. Transmission mechanisms responsible for their maintenance are worthy of theoretical and empirical inquiry; they are complex and each possible pathway has different effects on evolutionary stability of traits, as can be shown theoretically. A survey designed to evaluate the importance of some components of cultural transmission on a variety of traits showed that religion and politics are mostly determined in the family, a mode of transmission which guarantees high evolutionary stability and maintenance of high variation between and within groups.

Biodiversity of 20 chicken breeds assessed by SNPs located in gene regions.

Twenty-five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were analyzed in 20 distinct chicken breeds. The SNPs, each located in a different gene and mostly on different chromosomes, were chosen to examine the use of SNPs in or close to genes (g-SNPs), for biodiversity studies. Phylogenetic trees were constructed from these data. When bootstrap values were used as a criterion for the tree repeatability, doubling the number of SNPs from 12 to 25 improved tree repeatability more than doubling the number of individuals per population, from five to ten. Clustering results of these 20 populations, based on the software STRUCTURE, are in agreement with those previously obtained from the analysis of microsatellites. When the number of clusters was similar to the number of populations, affiliation of birds to their original populations was correct (>95%) only when at least the 22 most polymorphic SNP loci (out of 25) were included. When ten populations were clustered into five groups based on STRUCTURE, we used membership coefficient (Q) of the major cluster at each population as an indicator for clustering success level. This value was used to compare between three marker types; microsatellites, SNPs in or close to genes (g-SNPs) and SNPs in random fragments (r-SNPs). In this comparison, the same individuals were used (five to ten birds per population) and the same number of loci (14) used for each of the marker types. The average membership coefficients (Q) of the major cluster for microsatellites, g-SNPs and r-SNPs were 0.85, 0.7, and 0.64, respectively. Analysis based on microsatellites resulted in significantly higher clustering success due to their multi-allelic nature. Nevertheless, SNPs have obvious advantages, and are an efficient and cost-effective genetic tool, providing broader genome coverage and reliable estimates of genetic relatedness.

Selection, generalized transmission and the evolution of modifier genes. I. The reduction principle.

Modifier gene models are used to explore the evolution of features of organisms, such as the genetic system, that are not directly involved in the determination of fitness. Recent work has shown that a general "reduction principle" holds in models of selectively neutral modifiers of recombination, mutation, and migration. Here we present a framework for models of modifier genes that shows these reduction results to be part of a more general theory, for which recombination and mutation are special cases. The deterministic forces that affect the genetic composition of a population can be partitioned into two categories: selection and transmission. Selection includes differential viabilities, fertilities, and mating success. Imperfect transmission occurs as a result of such phenomena as recombination, mutation and migration, meiosis, gene conversion, and meiotic drive. Selectively neutral modifier genes affect transmission, and a neutral modifier gene can evolve only by generating association with selected genes whose transmission it affects. We show that, in randomly mating populations at equilibrium, imperfect transmission of selected genes allows a variance in their marginal fitnesses to be maintained. This variance in the marginal fitnesses of selected genes is what drives the evolution of neutral modifier genes. Populations with a variance in marginal fitnesses at equilibrium are always subject to invasion by modifier genes that bring about perfect transmission of the selected genes. It is also found, within certain constraints, that for modifier genes producing what we call "linear variation" in the transmission processes, a new modifier allele can invade a population at equilibrium if it reduces the level of imperfect transmission acting on the selected genes, and will be expelled if it increases the level of imperfect transmission. Moreover, the strength of the induced selection on the modifier gene is shown to range up to the order of the departure of the genetic system from perfect transmission.

Simultaneous Stability of D=0 and D not equal0 for Multiplicative Viabilities at Two Loci.

The two-locus, two-allele multiplicative viability model is investigated. It is shown that the well-known region of recombination values for which D = 0 is locally stable does not preclude the local stability of an equilibrium with D not equal 0. This is shown numerically and is true for every case investigated in which both loci are overdominant and the viabilities not symmetric.

Linkage modification with mixed random mating and selfing: a numerical study.

Although recombination cannot increase under conditions of random mating or complete selfing in regimes of constant selection, with mixed random mating and selfing, selection for increased recombination can occur. For some fitness regimes there may be selection for reduced recombination with both low and high degrees of selfing but selection for increased recombination with moderate degrees of selfing. With some fitness regimes there is a historical effect: depending on which equilibrium a population starts from, there may be selection for either increased or decreased recombination. In other cases the direction of selection may be determined by the present state of individuals within the population. If recombination is already fairly limited, there may be selection for further reduction. If recombination is already fairly frequent, there may be selection for increased recombination. For certain symmetric viability systems there may be an intermediate value of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 toward which the population will evolve. Although it is not yet possible to classify precisely those fitness matrices that can exhibit selection for increased recombination, it does appear that selection for increased recombination can occur only if at least two of the double homozygotes are less fit than would be expected on the basis of a comparison of the fitnesses of the single and double heterozygotes on an additive scale.

Experimental and Theoretical Analysis of the "Sex-Ratio" Polymorphism in DROSOPHILA PSEUDOOBSCURA.

The Sex-ratio chromosome (SR) is a widespread, multiply inverted rearrangement of the X chromosome present in several species of Drosophila. Male carriers transmit mostly X-bearing sperm. In the absence of strong counteracting selection, SR is expected to increase rapidly to fixation, causing extinction. The present study incorporates a selection-components analysis of SR in laboratory populations, using the closely linked Esterase-5 locus as a marker. Estimated fitnesses show directional viability selection against SR in both males and females, heterosis for fertility and no significant effects on virility, the male adult component of fitness. Estimated fitnesses satisfy conditions for protected polymorphism and accurately predict gene-frequency trajectories in experimental populations. A model of SR gene-frequency evolution is developed, which incorporates sex-linkage, meiotic drive, viability, fertility and virility selecton. We show that conditions for protected polymorphisms are not unduly restrictive and that differential fitness among males is not sufficient for protected polymorphism, irrespective of the degree of meiotic drive.

Density-Dependent Fertility Selection in Experimental Populations of DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER.

The effects of larval density on components of fertility fitness were investigated with two mutant lines of Drosophila melanogaster. The differences in adult body weight, wing length, larval survivorship and development time verified that flies reared at high density were resource limited. Experimental results indicate that: (1) relative fecundities of both sexes show density-dependent effects, (2) there is a strong density effect on male and female mating success, and (3) in general, there is a reduction in fecundity differences between genotypes at high density. These results imply that it may be important to consider fertility in models of density-dependent natural selection.

On the number of stable equilibria and the simultaneous stability of fixation and polymorphism in two-locus models.

It is shown that in simple symmetric two-locus, two-allele constant fitness models the bound of four simultaneously stable equilibria previously accepted for general two-locus, two-allele models is exceeded. Situations with five and six stable equilibria are exhibited. These involve four chromosomal fixations and either one or two polymorphic stable equilibria.

A theoretical and numerical assessment of genetic variability.

The equilibrium behavior of one-locus viability selection models is studied numerically. The selection schemes include randomly chosen viabilities, viabilities chosen to measure a hypothetical distance between the alleles making up the genotype and viabilities that obey various allelic dominance relations. From 3 to 8 alleles are considered. Among the key conclusions are (1) equilibria that are most polymorphic do not usually have the highest mean fitness, (2) the more structure there is in the choice of the viability model, the greater is the level of polymorphism at equilibrium, and (3) for the numbers of alleles chosen here, the equilibrium reached by iteration from the centroid of the allele frequency simplex is the best predictor of the equilibrium attainable from randomly chosen starting vectors. Preliminary evidence shows that this is not the case for 16 alleles.

A symmetric two-locus fertility model.

A model in which selection is mediated by differential fertilities among the genotypes at two diallelic loci is proposed. Fertility depends only on the number of heterozygous loci participating in the mating. Classes analogous to symmetric equilibria in symmetric viability models are determined explicitly and shown to exhibit stability behavior very different from the viability results. Linkage equilibrium is shown to occur in a relatively asymmetric fashion and to overlap in stability with linkage disequilibrium. In many cases single-locus or two-locus polymorphism is shown to be stable simultaneously with chromosome fixation even under very tight linkage. It is suggested that historical effects may be of great significance in the evolution of systems in which fertility is the primary agent of natural selection.

A numerical simulation of the one-locus, multiple-allele fertility model.

Numerical simulations were performed to determine the equilibrium behavior of the one-locus fertility model in which fitness is considered as a property of a pair of mating diploids. A series of patterns of "fertility matrices" were considered for a single locus with two to six alleles. From these simulations, 19 different statistics were collected that characterize, at equilibrium, the heterozygosity, the mean fitness and the fate of populations begun at the allele-frequency centroid. For more than one-half of the trajectories produced by random fertility matrices, there was a decrease in the mean fitness at some time on the way to equilibrium. The mean number of alleles maintained at equilibrium increased only slightly with matrix dimension. Despite the potential for fertility models to display multiple stable equilibria, random fertility models maintain fewer distinct stable points than do random one-locus viability models. Pleiotropic models were also considered with fertility and viability selection operating sequentially within each generation. Most of the equilibrium statistics (with the exception of mean fertility) for the pleiotropic model were intermediate between the corresponding random viability and fertility models.