Estimating the global cancer incidence and mortality in 2018: GLOBOCAN sources and methods.

Estimates of the worldwide incidence and mortality from 36 cancers and for all cancers combined for the year 2018 are now available in the GLOBOCAN 2018 database, compiled and disseminated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). This paper reviews the sources and methods used in compiling the cancer statistics in 185 countries. The validity of the national estimates depends upon the representativeness of the source information, and to take into account possible sources of bias, uncertainty intervals are now provided for the estimated sex- and site-specific all-ages number of new cancer cases and cancer deaths. We briefly describe the key results globally and by world region. There were an estimated 18.1 million (95% UI: 17.5-18.7 million) new cases of cancer (17 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million (95% UI: 9.3-9.8 million) deaths from cancer (9.5 million excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) worldwide in 2018.

Cervical cancer in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia: Regional inequalities and changing trends.

The vast majority (86% or 453,000 cases) of the global burden of cervical cancer occurs in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia, where one in nine new cancer cases are of the cervix. Although the disease has become rare in high-resource settings (e.g., in North America, parts of Europe, Japan) that have historically invested in effective screening programs, the patterns and trends are variable elsewhere. While favourable incidence trends have been recorded in many populations in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean in the past decades, rising rates have been observed in sub-Saharan African countries, where high quality incidence series are available. The challenge for countries heavily affected by the disease in these regions is to ensure resource-dependent programmes of screening and vaccination are implemented to transform the situation, so that accelerated declines in cervical cancer are not the preserve of high-income countries, but become the norm in all populations worldwide.

More deaths from pancreatic cancer than breast cancer in the EU by 2017.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic cancer currently ranks below female breast cancer in terms of the number of deaths in both males and females in the EU. While breast cancer mortality rates have been declining in many higher income EU countries during recent decades, rates of pancreatic cancer in contrast are either stable or moderately increasing; a comparative analysis of the short-term future rates of both is warranted. METHODS: We extracted the annual number of deaths from cancers of the pancreas and breast by gender together with population at risk in each of 28 countries of the EU for the period 2001-2010. We fitted cancer- and gender-specific time-linear regression models and predicted deaths from pancreatic and breast cancer mortality for the years 2011-2025. RESULTS: We estimated that by the year 2017 more deaths from pancreatic cancer will occur (91 500 annual deaths) than breast cancer (91 000) in the EU. By 2025, deaths from cancer of the pancreas are predicted to be 25% higher (111 500 and 90 000, respectively). Pancreatic cancer may become the third leading cause of death from cancer in the EU after lung and colorectal cancers. CONCLUSION: Although strategies may emerge in the near future that will enhance the prospects of improving the very poor five-year survival from pancreatic cancer, coordinated efforts are necessary to reduce the foreseeable high mortality burden of disease within the EU.

Global patterns of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancer incidence in 2012.

OBJECTIVE: Globally, gastric cancer incidence shows remarkable international variation and demonstrates distinct characteristics by the two major topographical subsites, cardia (CGC) and non-cardia (NCGC). Because global incidence estimates by subsite are lacking, we aimed to describe the worldwide incidence patterns of CGC and NCGC separately. DESIGN: Using Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volume X (CI5X), we ascertained the proportions of CGC and NCGC by country, sex and age group (<65 and ≥65 years). These derived proportions were applied to GLOBOCAN 2012 data to estimate country-specific age-standardised CGC and NCGC incidence rates (ASR). Regional proportions were used to estimate rates for countries not included in CI5X. RESULTS: According to our estimates, in 2012, there were 260,000 cases of CGC (ASR 3.3 per 100,000) and 691,000 cases of NCGC (ASR 8.8) worldwide. The highest regional rates of both gastric cancer subsites were in Eastern/Southeastern Asia (in men, ASRs: 8.7 and 21.7 for CGC and NCGC, respectively). In most countries NCGC occurred more frequently than CGC with an average ratio of 2:1; however, in some populations where NCGC incidence rates were lower than the global average, CGC rates were similar or higher than NCGC rates. Men had higher rates than women for both subsites but particularly for CGC (male-to-female ratio 3:1). CONCLUSIONS: This study has, for the first time, quantified global incidence patterns of CGC and NCGC providing new insights into the global burden of these cancers. Country-specific estimates are provided; however, these should be interpreted with caution. This work will support future investigations across populations.

Cancer Incidence in Five Continents: Inclusion criteria, highlights from Volume X and the global status of cancer registration.

Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5), a longstanding collaboration between the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the International Association of Cancer Registries, serves as a unique source of cancer incidence data from high-quality population-based cancer registries around the world. The recent publication of Volume X comprises cancer incidence data from 290 registries covering 424 populations in 68 countries for the registration period 2003-2007. In this article, we assess the status of population-based cancer registries worldwide, describe the techniques used in CI5 to evaluate their quality and highlight the notable variation in the incidence rates of selected cancers contained within Volume X of CI5. We also discuss the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development as an international partnership that aims to reduce the disparities in availability of cancer incidence data for cancer control action, particularly in economically transitioning countries, already experiencing a rapid rise in the number of cancer patients annually.

Worldwide burden of cervical cancer in 2008.

BACKGROUND: The knowledge that persistent human papillomavirus infection is the main cause of cervical cancer has resulted in the development of assays that detect nucleic acids of the virus and prophylactic vaccines. Up-to-date and reliable data are needed to assess impact of existing preventive measures and to define priorities for the future. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Best estimates on cervical cancer incidence and mortality are presented using recently compiled data from cancer and mortality registries for the year 2008. RESULTS: There were an estimated 530,000 cases of cervical cancer and 275,000 deaths from the disease in 2008. It is the third most common female cancer ranking after breast (1.38 million cases) and colorectal cancer (0.57 million cases). The incidence of cervical cancer varies widely among countries with world age-standardised rates ranging from <1 to >50 per 100,000. Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death among women in Eastern, Western and Middle Africa; Central America; South-Central Asia and Melanesia. The highest incidence rate is observed in Guinea, with ∼6.5% of women developing cervical cancer before the age of 75 years. India is the country with the highest disease frequency with 134,000 cases and 73 000 deaths. Cervical cancer, more than the other major cancers, affects women <45 years. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of effective screening methods, cervical cancer continues to be a major public health problem. New methodologies of cervical cancer prevention should be made available and accessible for women of all countries through well-organised programmes.

Trends in cancer incidence in Chennai city (1982-2006) and statewide predictions of future burden in Tamil Nadu (2007-16).

BACKGROUND: This paper investigates cancer trends in Chennai and predicts the future cancer burden in Chennai and Tamil Nadu state, India, using data on 89 357 incident cancers from the Chennai registry during 1982-2006, published incidence rates from the Dindigul Ambilikkai Cancer Registry during 2003-06 and population statistics during 1982-2016. METHODS: Age-specific incidence rates were modelled as a function of age, period and birth cohort using the NORDPRED software to predict future cancer incidence rates and numbers of cancer cases for the period 2007-11 and 2012-16 in Chennai. Predictions for Tamil Nadu state were computed using a weighted average of the predicted incidence rates of the Chennai registry and current rates in Dindigul district. RESULTS; In Chennai, the total cancer burden is predicted to increase by 32% by 2012-16 compared with 2002-06, with 19% due to changes in cancer risk and a further 13% due to the impact of demographic changes. The incidence of cervical cancer is projected to drop by 46% in 2015 compared with current levels, while a 100% increase in future thyroid cancer incidence is predicted. Among men, a 21% decline in the incidence of oesophageal cancer by 2016 contrasts with the 42% predicted increase in prostate cancer. The annual cancer burden predicted for 2012-16 is 6100 for Chennai, translating to 55 000 new cases per year statewide (in Tamil Nadu). Breast cancer would dislodge cervical cancer as the top-ranking cancer in the state, while lung, stomach and large bowel cancers would surpass cervical cancer in ranking in Chennai by 2016. CONCLUSION: In order to tackle the predicted increases in cancer burden in Tamil Nadu, concerted efforts are required to assess and plan the infrastructure for cancer control and care, and ensure sufficient allocation of resources.

The recent decline in mortality from Hodgkin lymphomas in central and eastern Europe.

BACKGROUND: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is a largely curable disease and its mortality had steadily declined in western Europe since the late 1960s. Only modest declines were, however, observed in central/eastern Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We updated trends in mortality from HL in various European areas up to 2004 and analyzed patterns in incidence for selected European countries providing national data. RESULTS: In most western European countries, HL mortality continued to steadily decline up to the mid 2000s. More recent reductions were also observed in eastern European countries. Overall, mortality from HL declined from 1.17/100,000 (age-standardized, world population) in 1980-1989 to 1.42/100,000 in 2000-2004 in men from the 15 member states of the European Union (EU) from western and northern Europe. In the EU 10 accession countries of central and eastern Europe, male mortality from HL was 1.42/100,000 in 1980-1984, 1.32 in 1990-1994, and declined to 0.76 in 2000-2004. Similar trends were observed in women. No consistent patterns were found for HL incidence. CONCLUSIONS: The present work confirms the persistent declines in HL mortality in western European countries, and shows favorable patterns over more recent calendar years in central/eastern ones, where rates, however, are still at levels observed in western Europe in the early 1990s.

Epidemiology of biliary tract cancers: an update.

BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer (BTC) is a rare cancer in Europe and North America, characterized by wide geographic variation, with high incidence in some areas of Latin America and Asia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: BTC mortality and incidence have been updated according to recent data, using joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: Since the 1980s, decreasing trends in BTC mortality rates (age-standardized, world standard population) were observed in the European Union as a whole, in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Israel, New Zealand, and the United States, and high-risk countries such as Japan and Venezuela. Joinpoint regression analysis indicates that decreasing trends were more favorable over recent calendar periods. High-mortality rates are, however, still evident in central and eastern Europe (4-5/100,000 women), Japan (4/100,000 women), and Chile (16.6/100,000 women). Incidence rates identified other high-risk areas in India (8.5/100,000 women), Korea (5.6/100,000 women), and Shanghai, China (5.2/100,000 women). CONCLUSIONS: The decreasing BTC mortality trends essentially reflect more widespread and earlier adoption of cholecystectomy in several countries, since gallstones are the major risk factor for BTC. There are, however, high-risk areas, mainly from South America and India, where access to gall-bladder surgery remains inadequate.

Quantification of changes in breast cancer incidence and mortality since 1990 in 35 countries with Caucasian-majority populations.

BACKGROUND: Since 1985 considerable changes have taken place in the early detection and treatment of breast cancer. We quantified breast cancer trends for 35 countries with populations mainly of European ancestry. METHODS: Incidence data were extracted from cancer registries and mortality data from World Health Organization database. Overall percentage change from 1990 to 2002 was quantified for all ages and for three different age-groups (35-49, 50-69 and >/=70 years of age). RESULTS: The incidence percent change in women of all ages varied from 2.1% in Canada to 54.2% in Lithuania. Main increases in incidence were observed for women 50-69 years old, from 12.4% in Canada until 105.3% in Norway. Decreases in mortality of >20% were observed in nine countries. Mortality decreases were highest in women 35-49 years old and lowest in women >/=70 years. The magnitude of mortality decrease from 1990 to 2002 was not related to the mortality rate observed in 1990. CONCLUSIONS: While increases in breast cancer incidence mainly concerned women >/=50 years, decreases in mortality were more marked in women 35-49 years old. Large disparities in changes in mortality rates probably reflect differences in detection of and management of breast cancer.

Changes in breast cancer incidence and mortality in middle-aged and elderly women in 28 countries with Caucasian majority populations.

BACKGROUND: Mammography screening and menopause hormone therapy is essentially offered to women 50-69 years old. METHODS: In 28 European ancestry countries, we quantified changes in breast cancer incidence and mortality using a joinpoint regression analysis from 1960 until last year of available data. RESULTS: Since 1960, increases in incidence often in the order of 2%-3% per year occurred in all countries, mainly in women 50-69 years old whose incidence in eight countries surpassed the incidence in women 70 years old and more. In 10 countries, a decrease in incidence in women >or=70 years was noticeable in the last years of observation, but the magnitude of this decrease was far from matching the magnitude of the increases observed in the 50-69 age-group. In the beginning of years 2000s, a persistent decrease in mortality of approximately 2% per year was observed in women 50-69 years old in most countries and parallel declines in mortality were observed in women 70 years or more. CONCLUSIONS: In years 2000s, in a number of countries, the incidence of breast cancer has become greater in middle-aged women than in older women. If trends remain unchanged, the same phenomenon is likely to happen in other countries.

Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: Estimates for 40 countries and 25 major cancers in 2018.

INTRODUCTION: Europe contains 9% of the world population but has a 25% share of the global cancer burden. Up-to-date cancer statistics in Europe are key to cancer planning. Cancer incidence and mortality estimates for 25 major cancers are presented for the 40 countries in the four United Nations-defined areas of Europe and for Europe and the European Union (EU-28) for 2018. METHODS: Estimates of national incidence and mortality rates for 2018 were based on statistical models applied to the most recently published data, with predictions obtained from recent trends, where possible. The estimated rates in 2018 were applied to the 2018 population estimates to obtain the estimated numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in Europe in 2018. RESULTS: There were an estimated 3.91 million new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 1.93 million deaths from cancer in Europe in 2018. The most common cancer sites were cancers of the female breast (523,000 cases), followed by colorectal (500,000), lung (470,000) and prostate cancer (450,000). These four cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Europe. The most common causes of death from cancer were cancers of the lung (388,000 deaths), colorectal (243,000), breast (138,000) and pancreatic cancer (128,000). In the EU-28, the estimated number of new cases of cancer was approximately 1.6 million in males and 1.4 million in females, with 790,000 men and 620,000 women dying from the disease in the same year. CONCLUSION: The present estimates of the cancer burden in Europe alongside a description of the profiles of common cancers at the national and regional level provide a basis for establishing priorities for cancer control actions across Europe. The estimates presented here are based on the recorded data from 145 population-based cancer registries in Europe. Their long established role in planning and evaluating national cancer plans on the continent should not be undervalued.

Burden of cervical cancer in Europe: estimates for 2004.

The European Council recommends that organised cervical cancer screening be offered in all member states. In order to evaluate the impact of existing and new prevention methods, regularly updated information on the burden of cervical cancer is needed. The best estimates of mortality and incidence rates were applied to the 2004 projected population of 40 European countries using methods developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Using the absolute number of cases and deaths, the standardised and cumulative rates (up to age of 74 years) were computed for individual countries, and aggregated for the 15 old (EU15) and the 10 new member states (EU10) of the European Union (EU25). For the 28 countries (25 belonging to the EU25 and three others), deaths from not otherwise specified uterine cancer were reallocated to cervix or corpus uteri cancer using age-specific rules described in GLOBOCAN 2002. The burden of cervical cancer deaths in the whole of Europe was assessed by analysing uterus cancer mortality in women aged <45 years. In 2004, approximately 31,000 women in the EU25 developed cervical cancer and almost 14,000 died from the disease. A striking contrast is noted between the 15 old and 10 new EU member states: world age-standardised incidence rates (per 10(5) women-years) of 9.5 versus 16.7; standardised mortality rates of 4.9 versus 10.7; cumulative mortality rate of 0.27% versus 0.71%. The burden was lowest in Finland (cumulative incidence and mortality rate of 0.38% and 0.12%, respectively) and highest in Lithuania (cumulative incidence and mortality of 1.64% and 0.94%, respectively). The mapping of uterine cancer mortality among women aged <45 years indicates that the burden of cervical cancer is particularly high across the whole of Eastern Europe. Cervical cancer still constitutes a considerable public health problem in Europe. The dramatic contrast between West and East European states merits particular attention from the health authorities of the countries concerned and the EU as a whole. The European Commission should maintain cervical cancer control in future action plans and increase support to the most affected member states.

The Benefits of Providing External Beam Radiotherapy in Low- and Middle-income Countries.

More than half of all cancer diagnoses worldwide occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and the incidence is projected to rise substantially within the next 20 years. Radiotherapy is a vital, cost-effective treatment for cancer; yet there is currently a huge deficit in radiotherapy services within these countries. The aim of this study was to estimate the potential outcome benefits if external beam radiotherapy was provided to all patients requiring such treatment in LMICs, according to the current evidence-based guidelines. Projected estimates of these benefits were calculated to 2035, obtained by applying the previously published Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes, Research and Evaluation (CCORE) demand and outcome benefit estimates to cancer incidence and projection data from the GLOBOCAN 2012 data. The estimated optimal radiotherapy utilisation rate for all LMICs was 50%. There were about 4.0 million cancer patients in LMICs who required radiotherapy in 2012. This number is projected to increase by 78% by 2035, a far steeper increase than the 38% increase expected in high-income countries. National radiotherapy benefits varied widely, and were influenced by case mix. The 5 year population local control and survival benefits for all LMICs, if radiotherapy was delivered according to guidelines, were estimated to be 9.6% and 4.4%, respectively, compared with no radiotherapy use. This equates to about 1.3 million patients who would derive a local control benefit in 2035, whereas over 615 000 patients would derive a survival benefit if the demand for radiotherapy in LMICs was met. The potential outcome benefits were found to be higher in LMICs. These results further highlight the urgent need to reduce the gap between the supply of, and demand for, radiotherapy in LMICs. We must attempt to address this 'silent crisis' as a matter of priority and the approach must consider the complex societal challenges unique to LMICs.

Worldwide burden of gynaecological cancer: the size of the problem.

The estimation of cancer burden is valuable to set up priorities for disease control. The comprehensive global cancer statistics from the International Agency for Research on Cancer indicate that gynaecological cancers accounted for 19% of the 5.1 million estimated new cancer cases, 2.9 million cancer deaths and 13 million 5-year prevalent cancer cases among women in the world in 2002. Cervical cancer accounted for 493 000 new cases and 273 000 deaths; uterine body cancer for 199 000 new cases and 50 000 deaths; ovarian cancer for 204 000 new cases and 125 000 deaths; cancers of the vagina, vulva and choriocarcinoma together constituted 45 900 cases. More than 80% of the cervical cancer cases occurred in developing countries and two-thirds of corpus uteri cases occurred in the developed world. Political will and advocacy to invest in healthcare infrastructure and human resources to improve service delivery and accessibility are vital to reduce the current burden in low- and medium-resource countries.

Erratum: Estimates of the worldwide mortality from 25 cancers in 1990. Int. J. Cancer, 83, 18-29 (1999).

Pisani, P., Parkin, D.M., Bray, F. and Ferlay, J. Estimates of the worldwide mortality from 25 cancers in 1990. Int. J. Cancer, 83, 18-29 (1999). Due to a printer's error, incorrect table headings were entered in Tables II-IV after the proofs of the article had been approved by the author. The correct tables are reprinted on the following pages. The publisher regrets this error.

Cancer and infection: estimates of the attributable fraction in 1990.

Various estimates of the proportion of all cancers attributable to infections have been proposed but none have been numerically justified. We have reviewed the evidence for "causality" with respect to infectious agents linked with cancer and estimated the fraction of all cancer cases concerned that are attributable to it. The etiological fraction was applied to the estimated annual incidence of cancer at each specific site in 1990, and the number of attributable cases was obtained. We estimate that 15.6% (1,450,000 cases) of the worldwide incidence of cancer in 1990 can be attributed to infection with either the hepatitis B and C viruses, the human papillomaviruses, EBV, human T-cell lymphotrophic virus I, HIV, the bacterium Helicobacter pylori, schistosomes, or liver flukes. There would be 21% fewer cases of cancer in developing countries (1,000,000 fewer cases per year) and 9% fewer cases in developed countries (375,000 fewer cases per year) if these infectious diseases were prevented. The attributable fraction at the specific sites varies from 89% of cervix cancers attributable to the papillomaviruses to 1% of all leukemias attributable to human T-cell lymphotrophic virus I.

Cancer incidence in Thailand, 1988-1991.

Results from three cancer registries (Chiang Mai, Khon Kaen, and Songkhla) in different regions of Thailand and from a cancer survey in the population of Bangkok during the years 1988-1991 are presented, together with an estimate of the incidence of cancer for the country as a whole. Overall, liver cancer is the most frequent malignancy, but there are large regional differences in incidence and in histological type, with very high rates of cholangiocarcinoma in the northeast (associated with endemic opisthorchiasis) but a more even distribution of hepatocellular carcinoma. Lung cancer is second in frequency, with the highest rates in northern Thailand, where the incidence in women (Age Standardized Rate, 37.4 per 100,000) is among the highest in the world. A link with tobacco smoking is suggested by similarly raised rates, especially in women, for cancers of the larynx and pancreas. Cervical cancer is the most common malignancy in women, with relatively little regional variation in risk, while the incidence of breast cancer is low. Other cancer sites showing moderately increased rates include the lip and oral cavity, particularly in females from the north and northeast, where the chewing of betel nut remains common among older generations, nasopharyngeal cancer, carcinoma of the esophagus in the southern region, and penile cancer, especially in the north and northeast. Previous studies which have investigated the etiological factors underlying these patterns are reviewed, and the implications for future research and for national cancer control policies are discussed.

Cancer incidence and mortality in the European Union: cancer registry data and estimates of national incidence for 1990.

Members of the European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR) provide population-based data on cancer incidence for some countries and regions of Europe. These were supplemented by estimates in order to provide comparable information on cancer incidence and mortality in the 15 member states of the European Union (EU). The estimated numbers of new cases of cancer (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 1990 were approximately 706,900 in men and 644,200 in women. Approximately 497,500 men and 398,200 women died of cancer in the same year. The main sites of incident cases in men were lung (21%), large bowel (13%), prostate (12%), bladder (7%) and stomach (7%). For women, the predominant sites were breast (28%), large bowel (15%), lung (6%), uterine corpus (5%) and stomach (5%). The overall incidence rates for males were highest in continental Western Europe (France, The Netherlands, Austria, Luxembourg, Belgium, Germany and Italy) while the rates of Greece, Portugal, Sweden, Ireland, Spain, Finland, the U.K. and Denmark were below the average value for the EC. Rates for females were highest in Northern and Western Europe, with the exception of France, which had a relatively low rate for females, in common with Greece, Spain and Portugal. The geographical variations in incidence of the major cancers are discussed in relation to risk factors. The estimates show the substantial burden of cancer in European Union populations, but there are also indications of effects of past preventive measures and there is scope for further intervention. Cancer registries are an important source of information for cancer control since they provide population-based incidence and survival statistics. These, along with mortality data, are required to obtain a full picture of the frequency of cancer and its effects at the population level. Some 44% of the EU population is covered by registries. The European Network of Cancer Registries aims to standardise the information provided by existing registries and to provide practical assistance to those in development.