Response to treatment is more important than disease severity at diagnosis for prediction of early relapse in new-onset paediatric Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Paediatric Crohn's disease is characteried by frequently relapsing disease which may lead to hospitalisations and complications. AIM: To develop predictive models for early relapse following first remission. METHODS: The GROWTH CD prospective inception cohort was designed to predict risk for early disease relapse and poor outcomes. Newly diagnosed children underwent endoscopies and imaging. They were phenotyped and followed at scheduled visits through 78 weeks for relapses. Twenty-eight dichotomous and continuous variables were assessed at baseline and week 12, including phenotype, inflammatory markers, disease activity (PCDAI) and other markers. Clinical relapses defined as PCDAI >10 after remission were recorded using a relapse form. Logistic regression & risk modelling was performed. RESULTS: We enrolled 282 eligible patients of whom 178 (63.6%) patients achieved steroid free remission by week 12. Disease complications developed in 22/76(29%) of patients with relapse compared to 20/206 (9.7%) without relapse (P = 0.01). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that while variables from age/gender at diagnosis were not predictive, week 12 variables including PCDAI >5 (P = 0.02), CRP >20 mg/L (P = 0.02), and faecal calprotectin >400 µg/g (P = 0.03) as optimal cut-offs were associated with increased risk of relapse. A prediction model for patients in remission including gender, age, week 12 PCDAI, calprotectin and CRP had sensitivity 43%, specificity 92%, PPV 78%, NPV 71% for relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Early relapses were associated with a higher risk for disease complications at followup. Relapse prediction based on week 12 disease activity or inflammation is superior to prediction using data from diagnosis.

Comparison of outcomes parameters for induction of remission in new onset pediatric Crohn's disease: evaluation of the porto IBD group "growth relapse and outcomes with therapy" (GROWTH CD) study.

BACKGROUND: Robust evaluation of induction therapies using both clinical and inflammatory outcomes in pediatric Crohn's disease (CD) are sparse. We attempted to evaluate clinical, inflammatory, and composite outcomes of induction of remission therapies (normal C reactive protein [CRP] remission) in a large pediatric prospective multicenter study. METHODS: Patients enrolled at diagnosis into the growth relapse and outcomes with therapy in Crohn's disease study were evaluated for disease activity, CRP, and fecal calprotectin at 8, 12 and 52 weeks after starting treatment. The primary endpoint was week-12 steroid-free remission defined by pediatric Crohn's disease activity index and CRP <0.5 mg/dL. The protocol required tapering off corticosteroids by week 11. RESULTS: We analyzed 222 patients (mean age, 12.9 ± 3.2 yr) main evaluated treatment options included: 5-ASA (n = 29), exclusive enteral nutrition (n = 43), and corticosteroids (n = 114). Clinical remission at week 12 was achieved in 155 (73%) patients; both exclusive enteral nutrition and steroids were associated with normal CRP remission at week 12, although in a post hoc subgroup analysis exclusive enteral nutrition was superior in mild-to-moderate disease for this outcome. Among those in steroid-free remission in week 12, normal CRP predicted 1-year sustained remission (86% for normal CRP versus 61% for elevated CRP; P = 0.02). Baseline severity and early immunomodulation were similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Normal CRP steroid-free remission at week 12 was impacted by type of induction therapy, but not by early immunomodulation. It was associated with more corticosteroids-free remission at week 52 and a trend for less relapses.