Using expert knowledge to support Endangered Species Act decision-making for data-deficient species.

Many questions relevant to conservation decision-making are characterized by extreme uncertainty due to lack of empirical data and complexity of the underlying ecologic processes, leading to a rapid increase in the use of structured protocols to elicit expert knowledge. Published ecologic applications often employ a modified Delphi method, where experts provide judgments anonymously and mathematical aggregation techniques are used to combine judgments. The Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) differs in its behavioral approach to synthesizing individual judgments into a fully specified probability distribution for an unknown quantity. We used the SHELF protocol remotely to assess extinction risk of three subterranean aquatic species that are being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We provided experts an empirical threat assessment for each known locality over a video conference and recorded judgments on the probability of population persistence over four generations with online submission forms and R-shiny apps available through the SHELF package. Despite large uncertainty for all populations, there were key differences between species' risk of extirpation based on spatial variation in dominant threats, local land use and management practices, and species' microhabitat. The resulting probability distributions provided decision makers with a full picture of uncertainty that was consistent with the probabilistic nature of risk assessments. Discussion among experts during SHELF's behavioral aggregation stage clearly documented dominant threats (e.g., development, timber harvest, animal agriculture, and cave visitation) and their interactions with local cave geology and species' habitat. Our virtual implementation of the SHELF protocol demonstrated the flexibility of the approach for conservation applications operating on budgets and time lines that can limit in-person meetings of geographically dispersed experts.

Uso del Conocimiento Experto para Respaldar la Toma de Decisiones del Acta de Especies en Peligro para Especies con Información Deficiente Resumen Muchas preguntas relevantes para la toma de decisiones de conservación se caracterizan por una incertidumbre extrema causada por la falta de información empírica y por la complejidad de los procesos ecológicos subyacentes. Esto lleva a un rápido incremento en el uso de protocolos estructurados para obtener conocimiento de los expertos en el tema. Las aplicaciones ecológicas publicadas con frecuencia emplean un método Delphi modificado, en el cual los expertos proporcionan dictámenes anónimamente y luego se usan técnicas de agregación matemática para combinar estos dictámenes. El marco de trabajo de obtención Sheffield (SHELF) difiere en su enfoque conductual para sintetizar los dictámenes individuales en una distribución de probabilidad completamente especificada para una cantidad desconocida. Usamos el protocolo SHELF remotamente para evaluar el riesgo de extinción de tres especies acuáticas subterráneas que están siendo consideradas para ser incluidas en el Acta de Especies en Peligro de los E.U.A. Les proporcionamos a los expertos una evaluación empírica de la amenaza para cada localidad conocida durante una videoconferencia y registramos los dictámenes sobre la probabilidad de la persistencia poblacional durante cuatro generaciones por medio de formularios enviados en línea y las apps R-shiny disponibles a través del paquete SHELF. A pesar de la gran incertidumbre para todas las poblaciones, hubo diferencias importantes entre el riesgo de extirpación de las especies con base en la variación espacial en las amenazas dominantes, el uso del suelo local y las prácticas de manejo, y el microhábitat de las especies. Las distribuciones resultantes de la probabilidad proporcionaron al órgano decisorio un cuadro completo de la incertidumbre que fue consistente con la naturaleza probabilística de las evaluaciones de riesgo. Las discusiones entre los expertos durante la fase de agregación conductual de SHELF documentaron claramente las amenazas dominantes (p. ej.: desarrollo, extracción de madera, agricultura animal y visitas a las cuevas) y sus interacciones con la geología de las cuevas locales y el hábitat de la especie. Nuestra implementación virtual del protocolo SHELF demostró la flexibilidad del enfoque para las aplicaciones de la conservación que operan con presupuestos y líneas de tiempo que pueden limitar las reuniones en persona de expertos dispersados geográficamente.

Toward a Periodic Table of Niches, or Exploring the Lizard Niche Hypervolume.

Widespread niche convergence suggests that species can be organized according to functional trait combinations to create a framework analogous to a periodic table. We compiled ecological data for lizards to examine patterns of global and regional niche diversification, and we used multivariate statistical approaches to develop the beginnings for a periodic table of niches. Data (50+ variables) for five major niche dimensions (habitat, diet, life history, metabolism, defense) were compiled for 134 species of lizards representing 24 of the 38 extant families. Principal coordinates analyses were performed on niche dimensional data sets, and species scores for the first three axes were used as input for a principal components analysis to ordinate species in continuous niche space and for a regression tree analysis to separate species into discrete niche categories. Three-dimensional models facilitate exploration of species positions in relation to major gradients within the niche hypervolume. The first gradient loads on body size, foraging mode, and clutch size. The second was influenced by metabolism and terrestrial versus arboreal microhabitat. The third was influenced by activity time, life history, and diet. Natural dichotomies are activity time, foraging mode, parity mode, and habitat. Regression tree analysis identified 103 cases of extreme niche conservatism within clades and 100 convergences between clades. Extending this approach to other taxa should lead to a wider understanding of niche evolution.

Seasonal changes in the assembly mechanisms structuring tropical fish communities.

Despite growing interest in trait-based approaches to community assembly, little attention has been given to seasonal variation in trait distribution patterns. Mobile animals can rapidly mediate influences of environmental factors and species interactions through dispersal, suggesting that the relative importance of different assembly mechanisms can vary over short time scales. This study analyzes seasonal changes in functional trait distributions of tropical fishes in the Xingu River, a major tributary of the Amazon with large predictable temporal variation in hydrologic conditions and species density. Comparison of observed functional diversity revealed that species within wet-season assemblages were more functionally similar than those in dry-season assemblages. Further, species within wet-season assemblages were more similar than random expectations based on null model predictions. Higher functional richness within dry season communities is consistent with increased niche complementarity during the period when fish densities are highest and biotic interactions should be stronger; however, null model tests suggest that stochastic factors or a combination of assembly mechanisms influence dry-season assemblages. These results demonstrate that the relative influence of community assembly mechanisms can vary seasonally in response to changing abiotic conditions, and suggest that studies attempting to infer a single dominant mechanism from functional patterns may overlook important aspects of the assembly process. During the prolonged flood pulse of the wet season, expanded habitat and lower densities of aquatic organisms likely reduce the influence of competition and predation. This temporal shift in the influence of different assembly mechanisms, rather than any single mechanism, may play a large role in maintaining the structure and diversity of tropical rivers and perhaps other dynamic and biodiverse systems.

From richer to poorer: successful invasion by freshwater fishes depends on species richness of donor and recipient basins.

Evidence for the theory of biotic resistance is equivocal, with experiments often finding a negative relationship between invasion success and native species richness, and large-scale comparative studies finding a positive relationship. Biotic resistance derives from local species interactions, yet global and regional studies often analyze data at coarse spatial grains. In addition, differences in competitive environments across regions may confound tests of biotic resistance based solely on native species richness of the invaded community. Using global and regional data sets for fishes in river and stream reaches, we ask two questions: (1) does a negative relationship exist between native and non-native species richness and (2) do non-native species originate from higher diversity systems. A negative relationship between native and non-native species richness in local assemblages was found at the global scale, while regional patterns revealed the opposite trend. At both spatial scales, however, nearly all non-native species originated from river basins with higher native species richness than the basin of the invaded community. Together, these findings imply that coevolved ecological interactions in species-rich systems inhibit establishment of generalist non-native species from less diverse communities. Consideration of both the ecological and evolutionary aspects of community assembly is critical to understanding invasion patterns. Distinct evolutionary histories in different regions strongly influence invasion of intact communities that are relatively unimpacted by human actions, and may explain the conflicting relationship between native and non-native species richness found at different spatial scales.

Functional traits, convergent evolution, and periodic tables of niches.

Ecology is often said to lack general theories sufficiently predictive for applications. Here, we examine the concept of a periodic table of niches and feasibility of niche classification schemes from functional trait and performance data. Niche differences and their influence on ecological patterns and processes could be revealed effectively by first performing data reduction/ordination analyses separately on matrices of trait and performance data compiled according to logical associations with five basic niche 'dimensions', or aspects: habitat, life history, trophic, defence and metabolic. Resultant patterns then are integrated to produce interpretable niche gradients, ordinations and classifications. Degree of scheme periodicity would depend on degrees of niche conservatism and convergence causing species clustering across multiple niche dimensions. We analysed a sample data set containing trait and performance data to contrast two approaches for producing niche schemes: species ordination within niche gradient space, and niche categorisation according to trait-value thresholds. Creation of niche schemes useful for advancing ecological knowledge and its applications will depend on research that produces functional trait and performance datasets directly related to niche dimensions along with criteria for data standardisation and quality. As larger databases are compiled, opportunities will emerge to explore new methods for data reduction, ordination and classification.

How do lizard niches conserve, diverge or converge? Further exploration of saurian evolutionary ecology.

BACKGROUND: Environmental conditions on Earth are repeated in non-random patterns that often coincide with species from different regions and time periods having consistent combinations of morphological, physiological and behavioral traits. Observation of repeated trait combinations among species confronting similar environmental conditions suggest that adaptive trait combinations are constrained by functional tradeoffs within or across niche dimensions. In an earlier study, we assembled a high-resolution database of functional traits for 134 lizard species to explore ecological diversification in relation to five fundamental niche dimensions. Here we expand and further examine multivariate relationships in that dataset to assess the relative influence of niche dimensions on the distribution of species in 6-dimensional niche space and how these may deviate from distributions generated from null models. We then analyzed a dataset with lower functional-trait resolution for 1023 lizard species that was compiled from our dataset and a published database, representing most of the extant families and environmental conditions occupied by lizards globally. Ordinations from multivariate analysis were compared with null models to assess how ecological and historical factors have resulted in the conservation, divergence or convergence of lizard niches. RESULTS: Lizard species clustered within a functional niche volume influenced mostly by functional traits associated with diet, activity, and habitat/substrate. Consistent patterns of trait combinations within and among niche dimensions yielded 24 functional groups that occupied a total niche space significantly smaller than plausible spaces projected by null models. Null model tests indicated that several functional groups are strongly constrained by phylogeny, such as nocturnality in the Gekkota and the secondarily acquired sit-and-wait foraging strategy in Iguania. Most of the widely distributed and species-rich families contained multiple functional groups thereby contributing to high incidence of niche convergence. CONCLUSIONS: Comparison of empirical patterns with those generated by null models suggests that ecological filters promote limited sets of trait combinations, especially where similar conditions occur, reflecting both niche convergence and conservatism. Widespread patterns of niche convergence following ancestral niche diversification support the idea that lizard niches are defined by trait-function relationships and interactions with environment that are, to some degree, predictable and independent of phylogeny.

Genetic and morphological characterization of the freshwater mussel clubshell species complex (Pleurobema clava and Pleurobema oviforme) to inform conservation planning.

The shell morphologies of the freshwater mussel species Pleurobema clava (federally endangered) and Pleurobema oviforme (species of concern) are similar, causing considerable taxonomic confusion between the two species over the last 100 years. While P. clava was historically widespread throughout the Ohio River basin and tributaries to the lower Laurentian Great Lakes, P. oviforme was confined to the Tennessee and the upper Cumberland River basins. We used two mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genes, 13 novel nuclear DNA microsatellite markers, and shell morphometrics to help resolve this taxonomic confusion. Evidence for a single species was apparent in phylogenetic analyses of each mtDNA gene, revealing monophyletic relationships with minimal differentiation and shared haplotypes. Analyses of microsatellites showed significant genetic structuring, with four main genetic clusters detected, respectively, in the upper Ohio River basin, the lower Ohio River and Great Lakes, and upper Tennessee River basin, and a fourth genetic cluster, which included geographically intermediate populations in the Ohio and Tennessee river basins. While principal components analysis (PCA) of morphometric variables (i.e., length, height, width, and weight) showed significant differences in shell shape, only 3% of the variance in shell shape was explained by nominal species. Using Linear Discriminant and Random Forest (RF) analyses, correct classification rates for the two species' shell forms were 65.5% and 83.2%, respectively. Random Forest classification rates for some populations were higher; for example, for North Fork Holston (HOLS), it was >90%. While nuclear DNA and shell morphology indicate that the HOLS population is strongly differentiated, perhaps indicative of cryptic biodiversity, we consider the presence of a single widespread species the most likely biological scenario for many of the investigated populations based on our mtDNA dataset. However, additional sampling of P. oviforme populations at nuclear loci is needed to corroborate this finding.